Transfer Trauma Among Nursing Home Residents: Development of a Composite Measure.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Nursing home (NH)-to-NH transfers place NH residents at risk for developing transfer trauma. We aimed to develop a composite measure of transfer trauma and apply it among those transferring before and during the pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional cohort analysis of long-stay NH residents with a NH-to-NH transfer. Minimum Data Set data (2018-2020) were used to create the cohorts. A composite measure of transfer trauma was developed (2018 cohort) and applied to the 2019 and 2020 cohorts. We analyzed resident characteristics and conducted logistic regression analyses to compare rates of transfer trauma between periods. RESULTS: In 2018, 794 residents were transferred; 242 (30.5%) met the criteria for transfer trauma. In the 2019 and 2020, 750 residents (2019) and 795 (2020) were transferred. In 2019 cohort, 30.7% met the criteria for transfer trauma, and 21.9% in 2020 cohort. During the pandemic, a higher proportion of transferred residents left the facility before the first quarterly assessment. Among residents who stayed in NH for their quarterly assessment, after adjusting for demographic characteristics, residents in the 2020 cohort were less likely to experience transfer trauma than those in the 2019 cohort (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51, 0.81). However, residents in 2020 cohort were two times more likely to die (AOR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.15, 3.26) and 3 times more likely to discharge within 90 days after transfer (AOR = 2.86, 95% CI: 2.30, 3.56) compared with those in 2019 cohort. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: These findings highlight how common transfer trauma is after NH-to-NH transfer and the need for further research to mitigate negative outcomes associated with the transfer in this vulnerable population.

Mortality and Discharge Location of Intensive Care Patients With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) utilization has increased among patients with Alzheimer disease and related dementia (ADRD), although outcomes are poor. OBJECTIVES: To compare ICU discharge location and subsequent mortality between patients with and patients without ADRD enrolled in Medicare Advantage. METHODS: This observational study used Optum's Clinformatics Data Mart Database from years 2016 to 2019 and included adults aged >67 years with continuous Medicare Advantage coverage and a first ICU admission in 2018. Alzheimer disease and related dementia and comorbid conditions were identified from claims. Outcomes included discharge location (home vs other facilities) and mortality (within the same calendar month of discharge and within 12 months after discharge). RESULTS: A total of 145 342 adults met inclusion criteria; 10.5% had ADRD and were likely to be older, female, and have more comorbid conditions. Only 37.6% of patients with ADRD were discharged home versus 68.6% of patients who did not have ADRD (odds ratio [OR], 0.40; 95% CI, 0.38-0.41). Both death in the same month as discharge (19.9% vs 10.3%; OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.47-1.62) and death in the 12 months after discharge (50.8% vs 26.2%; OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.88-2.02) were twice as common among patients with ADRD. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ADRD have lower home discharge rates and greater mortality after an ICU stay than patients without ADRD.

Nursing Home to Nursing Home Transfers during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the nursing home to nursing home transfer rates before and during the early COVID-19 pandemic and to identify risk factors associated with those transfers in a state with a policy to create COVID-19-care nursing homes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohorts of nursing home residents in prepandemic (2019) and COVID-19 (2020) periods. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Michigan long-term nursing home residents were identified from the Minimum Data Set. METHODS: Each year, we identified transfer events as a resident's first nursing home to nursing home transfer between March and December. We included residents' characteristics, health status, and nursing home characteristics to identify risk factors for transfer. Logistic regression models were conducted to determine risk factors for each period and changes in transfer rates between the 2 periods. RESULTS: Compared to the prepandemic period, the COVID-19 period had a higher transfer rate per 100 (7.7 vs 5.3, P < .05). Age ≥80 years, female sex, and Medicaid enrollment were associated with a lower likelihood of transfer for both periods. During the COVID-19 period, residents who were Black, with severe cognitive impairment, or had COVID-19 infection were associated with a higher risk of transfer [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) (95% CI): 1.46 (1.01-2.11), 1.88 (1.11-3.16), and 4.70 (3.30-6.68), respectively]. After adjusting for resident characteristics, health status, and nursing home characteristics, residents had 46% higher odds [AOR (95% CI): 1.46 (1.14-1.88)] of being transferred to another nursing home during the COVID-19 period compared to the prepandemic period. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: In the early COVID-19 pandemic, Michigan designated 38 nursing homes to care for residents with COVID-19. We found a higher transfer rate during the pandemic than during the prepandemic period, especially among Black residents, residents with COVID-19 infection, or residents with severe cognitive impairment. Further investigation is warranted to understand the transfer practice better and if any policies would mitigate the transfer risk for these subgroups.

CMS Practice Assessment Tool validity for alternative payment models.

OBJECTIVES: To study the predictive validity of the CMS Practice Assessment Tool (PAT) among 632 primary care practices. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. METHODS: The study included primary care physician practices recruited by the Great Lakes Practice Transformation Network (GLPTN), 1 of 29 CMS-awarded networks, and used data from 2015 to 2019. At enrollment, trained quality improvement advisers scored each of the PAT's 27 milestones by its degree of implementation based on interviews with staff, review of documents, direct observation of practice activity, and professional judgment. The GLPTN also tracked each practice's status regarding alternative payment model (APM) enrollment. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to identify summary scores; mixed-effects logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between derived scores with APM participation. RESULTS: EFA revealed that the PAT's 27 milestones could be summed into 1 overall score and 5 secondary scores. By the end of the 4-year project, 38% of practices were enrolled in an APM. A baseline overall score and 3 secondary scores were associated with increased odds of joining an APM (overall score: odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI, 0.99-1.12; P = .061; data-driven care quality score: OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00-1.22; P = .040; efficient care delivery score: OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; P = .003; collaborative engagement score: OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.96; P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that the PAT has adequate predictive validity for APM participation.

Changes in spending and quality after ACO contract participation for dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Fragmented care and misaligned payment across Medicare and Medicaid lower care quality for dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness. Accountable care organizations aim to improve the quality and value of care. METHODS: Using Medicare fee-for-service Part A and B claims data from 2009 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences design, we compared the spending and utilization of dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness that were and were not attributed to Medicare ACO providers before and after ACO contract entry. RESULTS: Dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness (N = 5,157,533, 70% depression, 22% bipolar, 27% schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders) had average annual Medicare spending of $17,899. ACO contract participation was generally not associated with spending or utilization changes. However, ACO contract participation was associated with higher rates of follow-up visits after mental health hospitalization: 1.17 and 1.30 percentage points within 7 and 30 days of discharge, respectively (p < 0.001). ACO-attributed beneficiaries with schizophrenia, bipolar, or other psychotic disorders received more ambulatory visits (393.9 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.002), while ACO-attributed beneficiaries with depression experienced fewer emergency department visits (-29.5 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.003) after ACO participation. CONCLUSIONS: Dually eligible beneficiaries served by Medicare ACOs did not have lower spending, hospitalizations, or readmissions compared with other beneficiaries. However, ACO participation was associated with timely follow-up after mental health hospitalization, as well as more ambulatory care and fewer ED visits for certain diagnostic groups. IMPLICATIONS: ACOs that include dually eligible beneficiaries with mental illness should tailor their designs to address the distinct needs of this population.

Behavioral symptoms, depression symptoms, and medication use in Michigan nursing home residents with dementia during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted nursing home (NH) care, including visitation restrictions, reduced staffing levels, and changes in routine care. These challenges may have led to increased behavioral symptoms, depression symptoms, and central nervous system (CNS)-active medication use among long-stay NH residents with dementia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional study including Michigan long-stay (≥100 days) NH residents aged ≥65 with dementia based on Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments from January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2021. Residents with schizophrenia, Tourette syndrome, or Huntington's disease were excluded. Outcomes were the monthly prevalence of behavioral symptoms (i.e., Agitated Reactive Behavior Scale ≥ 1), depression symptoms (i.e., Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ]-9 ≥ 10, reflecting at least moderate depression), and CNS-active medication use (e.g., antipsychotics). Demographic, clinical, and facility characteristics were included. Using an interrupted time series design, we compared outcomes over two periods: Period 1: January 1, 2018-February 28, 2020 (pre-COVID-19) and Period 2: March 1, 2020-June 30, 2021 (during COVID-19). RESULTS: We included 37,427 Michigan long-stay NH residents with dementia. The majority were female, 80 years or older, White, and resided in a for-profit NH facility. The percent of NH residents with moderate depression symptoms increased during COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 (4.0% vs 2.9%, slope change [SC] = 0.03, p < 0.05). Antidepressant, antianxiety, antipsychotic and opioid use increased during COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 (SC = 0.41, p < 0.001, SC = 0.17, p < 0.001, SC = 0.07, p < 0.05, and SC = 0.24, p < 0.001, respectively). No significant changes in hypnotic use or behavioral symptoms were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Michigan long-stay NH residents with dementia had a higher prevalence of depression symptoms and CNS active-medication use during the COVID-19 pandemic than before. During periods of increased isolation, facility-level policies to regularly assess depression symptoms and appropriate CNS-active medication use are warranted.

Trends in US Medicare Decedents' Diagnosis of Dementia From 2004 to 2017.

Importance: Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) have received considerable attention among clinicians, researchers, and policy makers in recent years. Despite increased awareness, few studies have documented temporal changes in the documentation of ADRD diagnoses despite its new importance for risk adjustment for health plans in Medicare. Objective: To assess trends in frequency of ADRD diagnosis in the last 2 years of life from 2004 to 2017, as well as any associated changes in billing practices, characteristics of the population with diagnosed ADRD, and intensity of end-of-life care. Design Setting and Participants: This is a serial cross-sectional study of older adult decedents (67 years or older) from 2004 to 2017 using a 20% sample of fee-for-service Medicare decedents. An ADRD diagnosis within the last 2 years of life was identified using diagnosis codes from inpatient, professional service, home health, or hospice claims, requiring the standard claims algorithm that required at least 1 claim and a more stringent algorithm that required at least 2 claims. Trends in ADRD diagnosis among decedents were used to lessen influence of new diagnostic technologies for early stage disease. Demographic characteristics, selected comorbidities, place of death, and health service use at the end-of-life were also examined. Data were analyzed from July 9, 2020, to May 3, 2021. Exposures: Calendar year 2004 to 2017. Main Outcome and Measure: An ADRD diagnosis within 2 years of death. Results: Among the included 3 515 329 Medicare fee-for-service decedents, when adjusted for age and sex, the percentage of older decedents with an ADRD diagnosis increased from 34.7% in 2004 to 47.2% in 2017. The trend was attenuated (25.2% to 39.2%) using a stringent ADRD definition. There was an inflection in the curve from 2011 to 2013, the time at which additional diagnoses were added to Medicare claims and the National Alzheimer Care Act was enacted. The ADRD diagnosis frequency increased considerably in inpatient (49.0% to 67.3%), hospice (12.2% to 42.0%), and home health (10.1% to 28.7%) claims. However, individual characteristics, number of visits, and hospitalizations were similar across the study period, and the intensity of end-of-life care declined on most measures. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, nearly half of older Medicare decedents had a diagnosis of ADRD at the time of death. From 2004 to 2017, the percentage of older adult decedents who received an ADRD diagnosis increased substantially prior to announcement of the addition of ADRD to Medicare risk adjustment strategies.

Association between periodontal care and hospitalization with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Each year there are 800,000 myocardial infarctions in the United States. There is an increased risk of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) for those with periodontal disease. Yet, there is a paucity of knowledge about downstream care of AMI and how this varies with periodontal care status. The authors' aim was to examine the association between periodontal care and AMI hospitalization and 30 days after acute care. METHODS: Using the MarketScan database, the authors conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients with both dental insurance and medical insurance in 2016 through 2018 who were hospitalized for AMI in 2017. RESULTS: There were 2,370 patients who had dental and medical coverage for 2016 through 2018 and received oral health care in 2016 through 2017 and had an AMI hospitalization in 2017. Forty-seven percent received regular or other oral health care, 7% received active periodontal care, and 10% received controlled periodontal care. More than one-third of patients (36%) did not have oral health care before the AMI hospitalization. After adjusting for patient characteristics, we found that patients in the controlled periodontal care group were significantly more likely to have visits during the 30 days after AMI hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.47; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: We found that periodontal care was associated with more after AMI visits. This suggests that there is a benefit to incorporating oral health care and medical care to improve AMI outcomes. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Needing periodontal care is associated with more favorable outcomes related to AMI hospitalization. Early intervention to ensure stable periodontal health in patients with risk factors for AMI could reduce downstream hospital resource use.

Small practice participation and performance in Medicare accountable care organizations.

OBJECTIVES: Alternative payment models (APMs) encouraging provider collaboration may help small practices overcome the participation challenges that they face in APMs. We aimed to determine whether small practices in accountable care organizations (ACOs) reduced their beneficiaries' spending more than large practices in ACOs. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of Medicare patients attributed to ACOs and non-ACOs. METHODS: We conducted a modified difference-in-differences analysis that allowed us to compare large vs small practices before and after the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) ACO started, between 2010 and 2016. Our sample included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with 12 months of Medicare Part A and Part B (unless death) who were attributed to small (≤ 15 providers) and large (> 15 providers) practices participating in ACOs and non-ACOs. The outcome was patient annual spending based on CMS' total per capita costs. RESULTS: Patients attributed to small practices in ACOs had annual Medicare spending decreases of $269 (95% CI, $213-$325; P < .001) more than patients attributed to large practices in ACOs. Small ACO practices reduced spending more than large practices by $165 for physician services (95% CI, $140-$190; P < .001), $113 for hospital/acute care (95% CI, $65-162; P < .001), and $52 for other services (95% CI, $27-$77; P < .001). Small practices in ACOs spent $253 more on average at baseline than small practices in non-ACOs. ACOs with a higher proportion of small practices were more likely to receive shared savings payments. CONCLUSIONS: Small practices in ACOs controlled costs more so than large practices. Small practice participation may generate higher savings for ACOs.

Provider Specialty and the Use of Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs for Rheumatoid Arthritis Among Older Adults in the 2005-2016 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey.

OBJECTIVE: We compared disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) use for older adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-related ambulatory visits from rheumatologists and primary care providers (PCPs). METHODS: In this study of national sample office visits, we characterized ambulatory visits by older adults 65 years of age or older seen by rheumatologists or PCPs for diagnosis of RA using the 2005-2016 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We analyzed patterns and trends of DMARD use using descriptive statistics and multivariable analyses by provider specialty. RESULTS: We identified 518 observations representing 7,873,246 ambulatory RA visits by older adults over 12 years; 74% were with rheumatologists. Any DMARD use was recorded at 56% of rheumatologist and 30% of PCP visits. Among visits with any DMARD use, 20% of rheumatologist visits had two or more DMARDs compared with 6% of PCP visits. Over the 12-year study period, there was no statistical difference in trend of any or conventional synthetic DMARD use at visits by provider specialty, adjusted for patient characteristics, non-DMARD polypharmacy and multimorbidity. However, biologic DMARD use was more likely to incrementally increase with rheumatologist compared with PCP visits (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: DMARD use for older adults with RA remains low from both rheumatologists and PCPs, including biologic DMARDs, even though American College of Rheumatology guidelines recommend earlier and more aggressive treatment of RA. With predicted shortages in the rheumatology workforce and maldistribution of rheumatology providers, PCPs may play an increasingly important role in caring for older adults with RA. Further research is needed to understand to optimize appropriate use of DMARDs in older patients with RA.

Identification of Dementia in Recent Medicare Claims Data, Compared With Rigorous Clinical Assessments.

BACKGROUND: Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) claims data are increasingly leveraged for dementia research. Few studies address the validity of recent claim data to identify dementia, or carefully evaluate characteristics of those assigned the wrong diagnosis in claims. METHODS: We used claims data from 2014 to 2018, linked to participants administered rigorous, annual dementia evaluations in 5 cohorts at the Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center. We compared prevalent dementia diagnosed through the 2016 cohort evaluation versus claims identification of dementia, applying the Bynum-standard algorithm. RESULTS: Of 1 054 participants with Medicare Parts A and B FFS in a 3-year window surrounding their 2016 index date, 136 had prevalent dementia diagnosed during cohort evaluations; the claims algorithm yielded 217. Sensitivity of claims diagnosis was 79%, specificity 88%, positive predictive value 50%, negative predictive value 97%, and overall accuracy 87%. White participants were disproportionately represented among detected dementia cases (true positive) versus cases missed (false negative) by claims (90% vs 75%, respectively, p = .04). Dementia appeared more severe in detected than missed cases in claims (mean Mini-Mental State Exam = 15.4 vs 22.0, respectively, p < .001; 28% with no limitations in activities of daily living versus 45%, p = .046). By contrast, those with "over-diagnosis" of dementia in claims (false positive) had several worse health indicators than true negatives (eg, self-reported memory concerns = 51% vs 29%, respectively, p < .001; mild cognitive impairment in cohort evaluation = 72% vs 44%, p < .001; mean comorbidities = 7 vs 4, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Recent Medicare claims perform reasonably well in identifying dementia; however, there are consistent differences in cases of dementia identified through claims than in rigorous cohort evaluations.

Validation of Claims Algorithms to Identify Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias.

BACKGROUND: Using billing data generated through health care delivery to identify individuals with dementia has become important in research. To inform tradeoffs between approaches, we tested the validity of different Medicare claims-based algorithms. METHODS: We included 5 784 Medicare-enrolled, Health and Retirement Study participants aged older than 65 years in 2012 clinically assessed for cognitive status over multiple waves and determined performance characteristics of different claims-based algorithms. RESULTS: Positive predictive value (PPV) of claims ranged from 53.8% to 70.3% and was highest using a revised algorithm and 1 year of observation. The tradeoff of greater PPV was lower sensitivity; sensitivity could be maximized using 3 years of observation. All algorithms had low sensitivity (31.3%-56.8%) and high specificity (92.3%-98.0%). Algorithm test performance varied by participant characteristics, including age and race. CONCLUSION: Revised algorithms for dementia diagnosis using Medicare administrative data have reasonable accuracy for research purposes, but investigators should be cognizant of the tradeoffs in accuracy among the approaches they consider.

Medicare beneficiary panel characteristics associated with high Part D biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug prescribing for older adults among rheumatologists.

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to investigate beneficiary panel characteristics associated with rheumatologists' prescribing of biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) for older adults.In this retrospective observational study, we used Medicare Public Use Files (PUFs) to identify rheumatologists who met criteria for high-prescribing, defined as bDMARD prescription constituting ≥20% of their DMARD claims for beneficiaries ≥65 years of age. We first used descriptive analysis then multivariable regression model to test the association of high prescribing of bDMARDs with rheumatologists' panel size and beneficiary characteristics. In particular, we quantified the proportion of panel beneficiaries ≥75 years of age to assess how caring for an older panel correlate with prescribing of bDMARDs.We identified 3197 unique rheumatologists, of whom 405 (13%) met criteria for high prescribing of bDMARDs for Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years of age. The high-prescribers provided care to 12% of study older adults, and yet accounted for 21% of bDMARD prescriptions for them. High prescribing of bDMARDs was associated with smaller panel size, and their beneficiaries were more likely to be non-black, ≥75 years of age, non-dual eligible, have diagnosis of CHF, however, less likely to have CKD.Rheumatologists differ in their prescribing of bDMARDs for older adults, and those caring for more beneficiaries ≥75 years of age are more likely to be high-prescribers. Older adults are more prone to the side-effects of bDMARDs and further investigation is warranted to understand drivers of differential prescribing behaviors to optimize use of these high-risk and high-cost medications.

Prevalence of Central Nervous System-Active Polypharmacy Among Older Adults With Dementia in the US.

Importance: Community-dwelling older adults with dementia have a high prevalence of psychotropic and opioid use. In these patients, central nervous system (CNS)-active polypharmacy may increase the risk for impaired cognition, fall-related injury, and death. Objective: To determine the extent of CNS-active polypharmacy among community-dwelling older adults with dementia in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis of all community-dwelling older adults with dementia (identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification or International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnosis codes; N = 1 159 968) and traditional Medicare coverage from 2015 to 2017. Medication exposure was estimated using prescription fills between October 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. Exposures: Part D coverage during the observation year (January 1-December 31, 2018). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the prevalence of CNS-active polypharmacy in 2018, defined as exposure to 3 or more medications for longer than 30 days consecutively from the following classes: antidepressants, antipsychotics, antiepileptics, benzodiazepines, nonbenzodiazepine benzodiazepine receptor agonist hypnotics, and opioids. Among those who met the criterion for polypharmacy, duration of exposure, number of distinct medications and classes prescribed, common class combinations, and the most commonly used CNS-active medications also were determined. Results: The study included 1 159 968 older adults with dementia (median age, 83.0 years [interquartile range {IQR}, 77.0-88.6 years]; 65.2% were female), of whom 13.9% (n = 161 412) met the criterion for CNS-active polypharmacy (32 139 610 polypharmacy-days of exposure). Those with CNS-active polypharmacy had a median age of 79.4 years (IQR, 74.0-85.5 years) and 71.2% were female. Among those who met the criterion for CNS-active polypharmacy, the median number of polypharmacy-days was 193 (IQR, 88-315 polypharmacy-days). Of those with CNS-active polypharmacy, 57.8% were exposed for longer than 180 days and 6.8% for 365 days; 29.4% were exposed to 5 or more medications and 5.2% were exposed to 5 or more medication classes. Ninety-two percent of polypharmacy-days included an antidepressant, 47.1% included an antipsychotic, and 40.7% included a benzodiazepine. The most common medication class combination included an antidepressant, an antiepileptic, and an antipsychotic (12.9% of polypharmacy-days). Gabapentin was the most common medication and was associated with 33.0% of polypharmacy-days. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional analysis of Medicare claims data, 13.9% of older adults with dementia in 2018 filled prescriptions consistent with CNS-active polypharmacy. The lack of information on prescribing indications limits judgments about clinical appropriateness of medication combinations for individual patients.

Utilization by Long-Term Nursing Home Residents Under Accountable Care Organizations.

OBJECTIVES: Nursing home care is common and costly. Accountable care organization (ACO) payment models, which have incentives for care that is better coordinated and less reliant on acute settings, have the potential to improve care for this high-cost population. We examined the association between ACO attribution status and utilization and Medicare spending among long-term nursing home residents and hypothesized that attribution of nursing home residents to an ACO will be associated with lower total spending and acute care use. DESIGN: Observational propensity-matched study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who were long-term nursing home residents residing in areas with ≥5% ACO penetration. METHODS: ACO attribution and covariates used in propensity matching were measured in 2013 and outcomes were measured in 2014, including hospitalization (total and ambulatory care sensitive conditions), outpatient emergency department visits, and Medicare spending. RESULTS: Nearly one-quarter (23.3%) of nursing home residents who survived into 2014 (n = 522,085, 76.1% of 2013 residents) were attributed to an ACO in 2013 in areas with ≥5% ACO penetration. After propensity score matching, ACO-attributed residents had significantly (P < .001) lower hospitalization rates per 1000 (total: 402.9 vs 419.9; ambulatory care sensitive conditions: 64.4 vs 71.4) and fewer outpatient ED visits (29.9 vs 33.3 per 100) but no difference in total spending ($14,071 vs $14,293 per resident, P = .058). Between 2013 and 2014, a sizeable proportion of residents' attribution status switched (14.6%), either into or out of an ACO. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: ACO nursing home residents had fewer hospitalizations and ED visits, but did not have significantly lower total Medicare spending. Among residents, attribution was not stable year over year.

Thyroid Cancer Active Surveillance Program Retention and Adherence in Japan.

Importance: Small papillary thyroid cancers are the most common type of thyroid cancer, with the incidence increasing across the world. Active surveillance of appropriate cancers has the potential to reduce harm from overtreatment but is a significant de-escalation from prior practice. Mechanisms that inform the rates of retention and adherence have not been described and need to be understood if broader uptake is to be considered. Objective: To evaluate patient retention, adherence, and experience in the largest and most long-standing thyroid cancer active surveillance program, to our knowledge. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort study using convergent design mixed-methods analysis of attendance data, semistructured interviews, and field observation was conducted at Kuma Hospital, Kobe, Japan. Participants included 1179 patients who were enrolled in surveillance between February 1, 2005, and August 31, 2013, and followed up through December 31, 2017. Data analysis was performed from January 25, 2018, through September 30, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Patients were considered adherent if they underwent ultrasonography within at least 13 months of the previous ultrasonographic examination. Patients were considered retained if they continued surveillance with an ultrasonographic examination at least every 2 years, without having had surgery for patient preference or clinical reasons. Results: Of the 1179 patients included in the study, 1037 (88%) were women. The mean (SD) age was 56 (13.5) years (median, 57 years). Patients were followed up for up to 12.76 years (median, 5.97 years) and underwent a median of 9 ultrasonographic examinations (range, 2-50); 76 patients (6.4%) had surgery for clinical reasons. In analysis of retention, 53 of 1179 patients (4.5%) changed to surgery after a mean (SD) of 2.14 (1.53) years (median, 1.47; range, 0.14-7.17 years); at the study end point, 101 of 1179 patients (8.6%) had not been seen at Kuma Hospital in at least the past 2 years. Kaplan-Meier analysis to 10 years of follow-up time without structural progression estimated that 21.5% (95% CI, 17.0%-28.2%) of patients would not have had an ultrasonographic examination within at least the past 2 years. Mean adherence over a surveillance period of 10 follow-up ultrasonographic examinations (8878 person-examinations) was 91% (range, 85%-95%). Receipt of detailed test results, education regarding active surveillance, and supportive/collaborative style interactions with their physician were identified by patients as key factors for continuing surveillance. Conclusions and Relevance: For patients with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer participating in active surveillance, retention in the program and adherence to follow-up ultrasonographic examination do not appear to be barriers to broader implementation of surveillance. The program's success may benefit from an approach analogous to traveler (patient) and their guide (clinician): the clinician advising on options, advocating for the optimal path over time, and supportively reaffirming the care plan or recommending alternatives as conditions change.

Association of Receiving Multiple, Concurrent Fracture-Associated Drugs With Hip Fracture Risk.

Importance: Many prescription drugs increase fracture risk, which raises concern for patients receiving 2 or more such drugs concurrently. Logic suggests that risk will increase with each additional drug, but the risk of taking multiple fracture-associated drugs (FADs) is unknown. Objective: To estimate hip fracture risk associated with concurrent exposure to multiple FADs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a 20% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service administrative data for age-eligible Medicare beneficiaries from 2004 to 2014. Sex-stratified Cox regression models estimated hip fracture risk associated with current receipt of 1, 2, or 3 or more of 21 FADs and, separately, risk associated with each FAD and 2-way FAD combination vs no FADs. Models included sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and use of non-FAD medications. Analyses began in November 2018 and were completed April 2019. Exposure: Receipt of prescription FADs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hip fracture hospitalization. Results: A total of 11.3 million person-years were observed, reflecting 2 646 255 individuals (mean [SD] age, 77.2 [7.3] years, 1 615 613 [61.1%] women, 2 136 585 [80.7%] white, and 219 579 [8.3%] black). Overall, 2 827 284 person-years (25.1%) involved receipt of 1 FAD; 1 322 296 (11.7%), 2 FADs; and 954 506 (8.5%), 3 or more FADs. In fully adjusted, sex-stratified models, an increase in hip fracture risk among women was associated with the receipt of 1, 2, or 3 or more FADs (1 FAD: hazard ratio [HR], 2.04; 95% CI, 1.99-2.11; P < .001; 2 FADs: HR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.77-2.95; P < .001; ≥3 FADs: HR, 4.50; 95% CI, 4.36-4.65; P < .001). Relative risks for men were slightly higher (1 FAD: HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.11-2.36; P < .001; 2 FADs: HR, 3.40; 95% CI, 3.20-3.61; P < .001; ≥3 FADs: HR, 5.18; 95% CI, 4.87-5.52; P < .001). Among women, 2 individual FADs were associated with HRs greater than 3.00; 80 pairs of FADs exceeded this threshold. Common, risky pairs among women included sedative hypnotics plus opioids (HR, 4.90; 95% CI, 3.98-6.02; P < .001), serotonin reuptake inhibitors plus benzodiazepines (HR, 4.50; 95% CI, 3.76-5.38; P < .001), and proton pump inhibitors plus opioids (HR, 4.00; 95% CI, 3.56-4.49; P < .001). Receipt of 1, 2, or 3 or more non-FADs was associated with a small, significant reduction in fracture risk compared with receipt of no non-FADs among women (1 non-FAD: HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.96; P < .001; 2 non-FADs: HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.81-0.87; P < .001; ≥3 non-FADs: HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.72-0.77; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults, FADs are commonly used and commonly combined. In this cohort study, the addition of a second and third FAD was associated with a steep increase in fracture risk. Many risky pairs of FADs included potentially avoidable drugs (eg, sedatives and opioids). If confirmed, these findings suggest that fracture risk could be reduced through tighter adherence to long-established prescribing guidelines and recommendations.

Inclusion of Nursing Homes and Long-term Residents in Medicare ACOs.

BACKGROUND: Long-term nursing home residents have complex needs that often require services from acute care settings. The accountable care organization (ACO) model provides an opportunity to improve care by creating payment incentives for more coordinated, higher quality care. OBJECTIVES: To assess the extent of nursing home participation in ACOs, and the characteristics of residents and their nursing homes connected to ACOs. RESEARCH DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study. SUBJECTS: Medicare nursing home residents identified from 2014 Minimum Data Set assessments. Residents were attributed to ACOs based on Medicare methods. MEASURES: Individuals' demographics, clinical characteristics, health care utilization, and nursing home characteristics. RESULTS: Among 660,780 nursing home residents, a quarter of them were attributed to ACOs. ACO residents had only small differences from non-ACO residents: age 85 years and older (47.1% vs. 45.3%), % black (10.5% vs. 12.7%), % dual eligible (74.3% vs. 75.8%), and emergency department visits (55.1 vs. 57.3 per 100). Of the 14,868 nursing homes with study residents, few were ACO providers (N=222, 1.6% of total residents) yet many had at least one ACO resident (N=8077, 76.4% of total residents); one-fifth had at least 20 (N=2839, 33.4% of total residents). ACO-provider homes were more likely than other homes to have a 5-star rating, be hospital-based and have Medicare as the primary payer. CONCLUSIONS: With a quarter of long-term nursing home residents attributed to an ACO, and one-fifth of nursing homes caring for a large number of ACO residents, outcomes and spending in this setting are important for ACOs to consider when designing patient care strategies.

Prevalence and Cost of Care Cascades After Low-Value Preoperative Electrocardiogram for Cataract Surgery in Fee-for-Service Medicare Beneficiaries.

IMPORTANCE: Low-value care is prevalent in the United States, yet little is known about the downstream health care use triggered by low-value services. Measurement of such care cascades is essential to understanding the full consequences of low-value care. OBJECTIVE: To describe cascades (tests, treatments, visits, hospitalizations, and new diagnoses) after a common low-value service, preoperative electrocardiogram (EKG) for patients undergoing cataract surgery. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational cohort study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data from beneficiaries aged 66 years or older without known heart disease who were continuously enrolled between April 1, 2013, and September 30, 2015, and underwent cataract surgery between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. Data were analyzed from March 12, 2018, to April 9, 2019. EXPOSURES: Receipt of a preoperative EKG. The comparison group included patients who underwent cataract surgery but did not receive a preoperative EKG. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cascade event rates and associated spending in the 90 days after preoperative EKG, or in a matched timeframe for the comparison group. Secondary outcomes were patient, physician, and area-level characteristics associated with experiencing a potential cascade. RESULTS: Among 110 183 cataract surgery recipients, 12 408 (11.3%) received a preoperative EKG (65.6% of them were female); of those, 1978 (15.9%) had at least 1 potential cascade event. The comparison group included 97 775 participants (63.1% female). Those who received a preoperative EKG experienced between 5.11 (95% CI, 3.96-6.25) and 10.92 (95% CI, 9.76-12.08) additional events per 100 beneficiaries relative to the comparison group. This included between 2.18 (95% CI, 1.34-3.02) and 7.98 (95% CI, 7.12-8.84) tests, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.19-0.46) treatments, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.18-1.62) new patient cardiology visits, and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.62-1.79) new cardiac diagnoses. Spending for the additional services was up to $565 per Medicare beneficiary (95% CI, $342-$775), or an estimated $35 025 923 annually across all Medicare beneficiaries in addition to the $3 275 712 paid for the preoperative EKGs. Among preoperative EKG recipients, those who were older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for patients aged 75 to 84 years vs 66 to 74 years old, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.28-1.57), had more chronic conditions (aOR for each additional Elixhauser condition, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.22), lived in more cardiologist-dense areas (aOR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09), or had their preoperative EKG performed by a cardiac specialist rather than a primary care physician (aOR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.43) were more likely to experience a potential cascade. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Care cascades after preoperative EKG for cataract surgery are infrequent but costly. Policy and practice interventions to reduce low-value services and the cascades that follow could yield substantial savings.

Geographic Expansion of Federally Qualified Health Centers 2007-2014.

PURPOSE: Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs), which were expanded under the Affordable Care Act, are federally funded health centers that aim to improve access to primary care in underserved areas. With continued federal support, the number of FQHCs in the United States has increased >80% within a decade. However, the expansion patterns and their impact on the population served are unknown. METHODS: A pre (2007)-post (2014) study of FQHC locations. FQHC locations were identified from the Provider of Services Files then linked to primary care service areas (PCSAs), which represent the service markets that FQHCs served. Road-based travel time was estimated from each 2007 FQHC to the nearest new FQHC as an indicator of geographic expansion in access. PCSA-level characteristics were used to compare 2007 and 2014 FQHC service markets. FINDINGS: Between 2007 and 2014, there was greater expansion in the number of FQHCs (3,489 vs 6,376; 82.7%) than in the number of service markets (1,835 vs 2,695; 46.9%). Nearly half of 2007 FQHCs (47%) had at least one new FQHC within 30 minutes travel time. Most newly certified FQHCs (81%) were located in urban areas. Compared to 2007 service markets, the new 2014 markets (N = 174) were much less likely to be in areas with >20% of the population below poverty (31.4% vs 14.9%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The latest expansion of FQHCs was less likely to be in rural or high poverty areas, suggesting the impact of expansion may have limitations in improving access to care among the most financially disadvantaged populations.