Modeling excessive nutrient loading in the environment.

Models addressing excessive nutrient loading in the environment originated over 50 years ago with the simple nutrient concentration thresholds proposed by Sawyer (1947. Fertilization of lakes by agricultural and urban drainage. New Engl. Water Works Assoc. 61, 109-127). Since then, models have improved due to progress in modeling techniques and technology as well as enhancements in scientific knowledge. Several of these advances are examined here. Among the recent approaches in modeling techniques we review are error propagation, model confirmation, generalized sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian analysis. In the scientific arena and process characterization, we focus on advances in surface water modeling, discussing enhanced modeling of organic carbon, improved hydrodynamics, and refined characterization of sediment diagenesis. We conclude with some observations on future needs and anticipated developments.

Great lakes eutrophication: the effect of point source control of total phosphorus.

A mathematical model of the Great Lakes total phosphorus budgets indicates that a 1 milligram per liter effluent restriction for point sources would result in significant improvement in the trophic status of most of the system. However, because large areas of their drainage basins are devoted to agriculture or are urbanized, western Lake Erie, lower Green Bay, and Saginaw Bay may require non-point source controls to effect significant improvements in their trophic status.