The association between disability progression, relapses, and treatment in early relapse onset MS: an observational, multi-centre, longitudinal cohort study.

The indirect contribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses to disability worsening outcomes, and vice-versa, remains unclear. Disease modifying therapies (DMTs) are potential modulators of this association. Understanding how these endo-phenotypes interact may provide insights into disease pathogenesis and treatment practice in relapse-onset MS (ROMS). Utilising a unique, prospectively collected clinical data from a longitudinal cohort of 279 first demyelinating event cases followed for up to 15 years post-onset, we examined indirect associations between relapses and treatment and the risk of disability worsening, and vice-versa. Indirect association parameters were estimated using joint models for longitudinal and survival data. Early relapses within 2.5 years of MS onset predicted early disability worsening outcomes (HR = 3.45, C.I 2.29-3.61) per relapse, but did not contribute to long-term disability worsening thereinafter (HR = 0.21, C.I 0.15-0.28). Conversely, disability worsening outcomes significantly contributed to relapse risk each year (HR = 2.96, C.I 2.91-3.02), and persisted over time (HR = 3.34, C.I 2.90-3.86), regardless of DMT treatments. The duration of DMTs significantly reduced the hazards of relapses (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.68, C.I 0.58-0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.37, C.I 0.32-0.44) and disability worsening events (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.74, C.I 0.69-0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.90, C.I 0.85-0.95), respectively. Results from time-dynamic survival probabilities further revealed individuals having higher risk of future relapses and disability worsening outcomes, respectively. The study provided evidence that in ROMS, relapses accrued within 2.5 years of MS onset are strong indicators of disability worsening outcomes, but late relapses accrued 2.5 years post onset are not overt risk factors for further disability worsening. In contrast, disability worsening outcomes are strong positive predictors of current and subsequent relapse risk. Long-term DMT use and older age strongly influence the individual outcomes and their associations.

Ensemble machine learning identifies genetic loci associated with future worsening of disability in people with multiple sclerosis.

Limited studies have been conducted to identify and validate multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic loci associated with disability progression. We aimed to identify MS genetic loci associated with worsening of disability over time, and to develop and validate ensemble genetic learning model(s) to identify people with MS (PwMS) at risk of future worsening. We examined associations of 208 previously established MS genetic loci with the risk of worsening of disability; we learned ensemble genetic decision rules and validated the predictions in an external dataset. We found 7 genetic loci (rs7731626: HR 0.92, P = 2.4 × 10-5; rs12211604: HR 1.16, P = 3.2 × 10-7; rs55858457: HR 0.93, P = 3.7 × 10-7; rs10271373: HR 0.90, P = 1.1 × 10-7; rs11256593: HR 1.13, P = 5.1 × 10-57; rs12588969: HR = 1.10, P = 2.1 × 10-10; rs1465697: HR 1.09, P = 1.7 × 10-128) associated with risk worsening of disability; most of which were located near or tagged to 13 genomic regions enriched in peptide hormones and steroids biosynthesis pathways by positional and eQTL mapping. The derived ensembles produced a set of genetic decision rules that can be translated to provide additional prognostic values to existing clinical predictions, with the additional benefit of incorporating relevant genetic information into clinical decision making for PwMS. The present study extends our knowledge of MS progression genetics and provides the basis of future studies regarding the functional significance of the identified loci.

Pathogenic genetic variants identified in Australian families with paediatric cataract.

OBJECTIVE: Paediatric (childhood or congenital) cataract is an opacification of the normally clear lens of the eye and has a genetic basis in at least 18% of cases in Australia. This study aimed to replicate clinical gene screening to identify variants likely to be causative of disease in an Australian patient cohort. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Sixty-three reported isolated cataract genes were screened for rare coding variants in 37 Australian families using genome sequencing. RESULTS: Disease-causing variants were confirmed in eight families with variant classification as 'likely pathogenic'. This included novel variants PITX3 p.(Ter303LeuextTer100), BFSP1 p.(Glu375GlyfsTer2), and GJA8 p.(Pro189Ser), as well as, previously described variants identified in genes GJA3, GJA8, CRYAA, BFSP1, PITX3, COL4A1 and HSF4. Additionally, eight variants of uncertain significance with evidence towards pathogenicity were identified in genes: GJA3, GJA8, LEMD2, PRX, CRYBB1, BFSP2, and MIP. CONCLUSION: These findings expand the genotype-phenotype correlations of both pathogenic and benign variation in cataract-associated genes. They further emphasise the need to develop additional evidence such as functional assays and variant classification criteria specific to paediatric cataract genes to improve interpretation of variants and molecular diagnosis in patients.

Generation and characterisation of four multiple sclerosis iPSC lines from a single family.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex neuroinflammatory/degenerative disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that results in the formation of demyelinated lesions and axon degeneration. MS aetiology is complex, with genetics estimated to account for ∼48% of MS risk (International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium, 2019). Despite this, families with a high incidence of MS are rare. We have generated four induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) lines from individuals with relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS within a single family. The generation of disease-specific iPSC lines from multiple members of a single family will facilitate MS genetic and functional studies.

Developing a clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index for relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis and clinically isolated syndrome.

Our inability to reliably predict disease outcomes in multiple sclerosis remains an issue for clinicians and clinical trialists. This study aims to create, from available clinical, genetic and environmental factors; a clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index to predict the probability of new relapses and disability worsening. The analyses cohort included prospectively assessed multiple sclerosis cases (N = 253) with 2858 repeated observations measured over 10 years. N = 219 had been diagnosed as relapsing-onset, while N = 34 remained as clinically isolated syndrome by the 10th-year review. Genotype data were available for 199 genetic variants associated with multiple sclerosis risk. Penalized Cox regression models were used to select potential genetic variants and predict risk for relapses and/or worsening of disability. Multivariable Cox regression models with backward elimination were then used to construct clinical-environmental, genetic and clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index, respectively. Robust time-course predictions were obtained by Landmarking. To validate our models, Weibull calibration models were used, and the Chi-square statistics, Harrell's C-index and pseudo-R 2 were used to compare models. The predictive performance at diagnosis was evaluated using the Kullback-Leibler and Brier (dynamic) prediction error (reduction) curves. The combined index (clinical-environmental-genotypic) predicted a quadratic time-dynamic disease course in terms of worsening (HR = 2.74, CI: 2.00-3.76; pseudo-R 2=0.64; C-index = 0.76), relapses (HR = 2.16, CI: 1.74-2.68; pseudo-R 2 = 0.91; C-index = 0.85), or both (HR = 3.32, CI: 1.88-5.86; pseudo-R 2 = 0.72; C-index = 0.77). The Kullback-Leibler and Brier curves suggested that for short-term prognosis (≤5 years from diagnosis), the clinical-environmental components of disease were more relevant, whereas the genetic components reduced the prediction errors only in the long-term (≥5 years from diagnosis). The combined components performed slightly better than the individual ones, although their prognostic sensitivities were largely modulated by the clinical-environmental components. We have created a clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index using relevant clinical, environmental, and genetic predictors, and obtained robust dynamic predictions for the probability of developing new relapses and worsening of symptoms in multiple sclerosis. Our prognostic index provides reliable information that is relevant for long-term prognostication and may be used as a selection criterion and risk stratification tool for clinical trials. Further work to investigate component interactions is required and to validate the index in independent data sets.

A 127 kb truncating deletion of PGRMC1 is a novel cause of X-linked isolated paediatric cataract.

Inherited paediatric cataract is a rare Mendelian disease that results in visual impairment or blindness due to a clouding of the eye's crystalline lens. Here we report an Australian family with isolated paediatric cataract, which we had previously mapped to Xq24. Linkage at Xq24-25 (LOD = 2.53) was confirmed, and the region refined with a denser marker map. In addition, two autosomal regions with suggestive evidence of linkage were observed. A segregating 127 kb deletion (chrX:g.118373226_118500408del) in the Xq24-25 linkage region was identified from whole-genome sequencing data. This deletion completely removed a commonly deleted long non-coding RNA gene LOC101928336 and truncated the protein coding progesterone receptor membrane component 1 (PGRMC1) gene following exon 1. A literature search revealed a report of two unrelated males with non-syndromic intellectual disability, as well as congenital cataract, who had contiguous gene deletions that accounted for their intellectual disability but also disrupted the PGRMC1 gene. A morpholino-induced pgrmc1 knockdown in a zebrafish model produced significant cataract formation, supporting a role for PGRMC1 in lens development and cataract formation. We hypothesise that the loss of PGRMC1 causes cataract through disrupted PGRMC1-CYP51A1 protein-protein interactions and altered cholesterol biosynthesis. The cause of paediatric cataract in this family is the truncating deletion of PGRMC1, which we report as a novel cataract gene.

A multi-ethnic genome-wide association study implicates collagen matrix integrity and cell differentiation pathways in keratoconus.

Keratoconus is characterised by reduced rigidity of the cornea with distortion and focal thinning that causes blurred vision, however, the pathogenetic mechanisms are unknown. It can lead to severe visual morbidity in children and young adults and is a common indication for corneal transplantation worldwide. Here we report the first large scale genome-wide association study of keratoconus including 4,669 cases and 116,547 controls. We have identified significant association with 36 genomic loci that, for the first time, implicate both dysregulation of corneal collagen matrix integrity and cell differentiation pathways as primary disease-causing mechanisms. The results also suggest pleiotropy, with some disease mechanisms shared with other corneal diseases, such as Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy. The common variants associated with keratoconus explain 12.5% of the genetic variance, which shows potential for the future development of a diagnostic test to detect susceptibility to disease.

Rapid and efficient cataract gene evaluation in F0 zebrafish using CRISPR-Cas9 ribonucleoprotein complexes.

Cataract is the leading cause of blindness worldwide. Congenital or paediatric cataract can result in permanent visual impairment or blindness even with best attempts at treatment. A significant proportion of paediatric cataract has a genetic cause. Therefore, identifying the genes that lead to cataract formation is essential for understanding the pathological process of inherited paediatric cataract as well as to the development of new therapies. Despite clear progress in genomics technologies, verification of the biological effects of newly identified candidate genes and variants is still challenging. Here, we provide a step-by-step pipeline to evaluate cataract candidate genes in F0 zebrafish using CRISPR-Cas9 ribonucleoprotein complexes (RNP). Detailed descriptions of CRISPR-Cas9 RNP design and formulation, microinjection, optimization of CRISPR-Cas9 RNP reagent dose and delivery route, editing efficacy analysis as well as cataract formation evaluation are included. Following this protocol, any cataract candidates can be readily and efficiently evaluated within 2 weeks using basic laboratory supplies.

Association of Genetic Variation With Keratoconus.

Importance: Keratoconus is a condition in which the cornea progressively thins and protrudes in a conical shape, severely affecting refraction and vision. It is a major indication for corneal transplant. To discover new genetic loci associated with keratoconus and better understand the causative mechanism of this disease, we performed a genome-wide association study on patients with keratoconus. Objective: To identify genetic susceptibility regions for keratoconus in the human genome. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study was conducted with data from eye clinics in Australia, the United States, and Northern Ireland. The discovery cohort of individuals with keratoconus and control participants from Australia was genotyped using the Illumina HumanCoreExome single-nucleotide polymorphism array. After quality control and data cleaning, genotypes were imputed against the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel (phase III; version 5), and association analyses were completed using PLINK version 1.90. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms with P < 1.00 × 10-6 were assessed for replication in 3 additional cohorts. Control participants were drawn from the cohorts of the Blue Mountains Eye Study and a previous study of glaucoma. Replication cohorts were from a previous keratoconus genome-wide association study data set from the United States, a cohort of affected and control participants from Australia and Northern Ireland, and a case-control cohort from Victoria, Australia. Data were collected from January 2006 to March 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Associations between keratoconus and 6 252 612 genetic variants were estimated using logistic regression after adjusting for ancestry using the first 3 principal components. Results: The discovery cohort included 522 affected individuals and 655 control participants, while the replication cohorts included 818 affected individuals (222 from the United States, 331 from Australia and Northern Ireland, and 265 from Victoria, Australia) and 3858 control participants (2927 from the United States, 229 from Australia and Northern Ireland, and 702 from Victoria, Australia). Two novel loci reached genome-wide significance (defined as P < 5.00 × 10-8), with a P value of 7.46 × 10-9 at rs61876744 in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 2 gene (PNPLA2) on chromosome 11 and a P value of 6.35 × 10-12 at rs138380, 2.2 kb upstream of casein kinase I isoform epsilon gene (CSNK1E) on chromosome 22. One additional locus was identified with a P value less than 1.00 × 10-6 in mastermind-like transcriptional coactivator 2 (MAML2) on chromosome 11 (P = 3.91 × 10-7). The novel locus in PNPLA2 reached genome-wide significance in an analysis of all 4 cohorts (P = 2.45 × 10-8). Conclusions and Relevance: In this relatively large keratoconus genome-wide association study, we identified a genome-wide significant locus for keratoconus in the region of PNPLA2 on chromosome 11.

Rediscovering the value of families for psychiatric genetics research.

As it is likely that both common and rare genetic variation are important for complex disease risk, studies that examine the full range of the allelic frequency distribution should be utilized to dissect the genetic influences on mental illness. The rate limiting factor for inferring an association between a variant and a phenotype is inevitably the total number of copies of the minor allele captured in the studied sample. For rare variation, with minor allele frequencies of 0.5% or less, very large samples of unrelated individuals are necessary to unambiguously associate a locus with an illness. Unfortunately, such large samples are often cost prohibitive. However, by using alternative analytic strategies and studying related individuals, particularly those from large multiplex families, it is possible to reduce the required sample size while maintaining statistical power. We contend that using whole genome sequence (WGS) in extended pedigrees provides a cost-effective strategy for psychiatric gene mapping that complements common variant approaches and WGS in unrelated individuals. This was our impetus for forming the "Pedigree-Based Whole Genome Sequencing of Affective and Psychotic Disorders" consortium. In this review, we provide a rationale for the use of WGS with pedigrees in modern psychiatric genetics research. We begin with a focused review of the current literature, followed by a short history of family-based research in psychiatry. Next, we describe several advantages of pedigrees for WGS research, including power estimates, methods for studying the environment, and endophenotypes. We conclude with a brief description of our consortium and its goals.

Rare, potentially pathogenic variants in 21 keratoconus candidate genes are not enriched in cases in a large Australian cohort of European descent.

Many genes have been suggested as candidate genes for keratoconus based on their function, their proximity to associated polymorphisms or due to the identification of putative causative variants within the gene. However, very few of these genes have been assessed for rare variation in keratoconus more broadly. In contrast, VSX1 and SOD1 have been widely assessed, however, the vast majority of studies have been small and the findings conflicting. In a cohort of Australians of European descent, consisting of 385 keratoconus cases and 396 controls, we screened 21 keratoconus candidate genes: BANP, CAST, COL4A3, COL4A4, COL5A1, FOXO1, FNDC3B, HGF, IL1A, IL1B, ILRN, IMMP2L, MPDZ, NFIB, RAB3GAP1, RAD51, RXRA, SLC4A11, SOD1, TF and VSX1. The candidate genes were sequenced in these individuals by either whole exome sequencing or targeted gene sequencing. Variants were filtered to identify rare (minor allele frequency <1%), potentially pathogenic variants. A total of 164 such variants were identified across the two groups with no variants fulfilling these criteria in cases in IL1RN, BANP, IL1B, RAD51 or SOD1. The frequency of variants was compared between cases and controls using chi-square or Fishers' Exact tests for each gene with at least one rare potentially pathogenic variant identified in the case cohort. The number of rare potentially pathogenic variants per gene ranged from three (RXRA) to 102 (MPDZ), however for all genes, there was no difference in the frequency between the cases and controls. We conclude that rare potentially pathogenic variation in the 21 candidate genes assessed do not play a major role in keratoconus susceptibility and pathogenesis.

Transcriptome and proteome profiling reveals stress-induced expression signatures of imiquimod-treated Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) cells.

As a topical cancer immunotherapy, the toll-like receptor 7 ligand imiquimod activates tumor regression via stimulation of immune cell infiltration and cytotoxic responses. Imiquimod also exerts direct pro-apoptotic effects on tumor cells in vitro, but a role for these effects in imiquimod-induced tumor regression remains undefined. We previously demonstrated that cell lines derived from devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a transmissible cancer threatening the survival of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), are sensitive to imiquimod-induced apoptosis. In this study, the pro-apoptotic effects of imiquimod in DFTD have been investigated using RNA-sequencing and label-free quantitative proteomics. This analysis revealed that changes to gene and protein expression in imiquimod treated DFTD cells are consistent with the onset of oxidative and endoplasmic reticulum stress responses, and subsequent activation of the unfolded protein response, autophagy, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. Imiquimod also regulates the expression of oncogenic pathways, providing a direct mechanism by which this drug may increase tumor susceptibility to immune cytotoxicity in vivo. Our study has provided the first global analysis of imiquimod-induced effects in any tumor cell line. These findings have highlighted the potential of cell stress pathways as therapeutic targets in DFTD, and will allow for improved mechanistic use of imiquimod as a therapy in both the Tasmanian devil and human cancers.

Common genetic variation within miR-146a predicts disease onset and relapse in multiple sclerosis.

Despite extensive studies focusing on the changes in expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) in multiple sclerosis (MS) compared to healthy controls, few studies have evaluated the association of genetic variants of miRNAs with MS clinical course. We investigated whether a functional polymorphism in the MS associated miR-146a gene predicted clinical course (hazard of conversion to MS and of relapse, and annualized change in disability), using a longitudinal cohort study of persons with a first demyelinating event followed up to their 5-year review. We found the genotype (GC+CC) of rs2910164 predicted relapse compared with the GG genotype (HR=2.09 (95% CI 1.42, 3.06), p=0.0001), as well as a near-significant (p=0.07) association with MS conversion risk. Moreover, we found a significant additive interaction between rs2910164 and baseline anti-EBNA-1 IgG titers predicting risk of conversion to MS (relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] 2.39, p=0.00002) and of relapse (RERI 1.20, p=0.006). Supporting these results, similar results were seen for the other EBV-correlated variables: anti-EBNA-2 IgG titers and past history of infectious mononucleosis. There was no association of rs2910164 genotype for disability progression. Our findings provide evidence for miR-146a and EBV infection in modulating MS clinical course.

Rare, Potentially Pathogenic Variants in ZNF469 Are Not Enriched in Keratoconus in a Large Australian Cohort of European Descent.

Purpose: The Zinc Finger Protein 469 (ZNF469) gene has been proposed as a candidate gene for keratoconus due to the association of an upstream polymorphism (rs9938149) with the disease in two independent studies, and the role of the gene in the autosomal recessive disease Brittle Cornea Syndrome. Coding variants in ZNF469 have been assessed for association with keratoconus in several small studies, with conflicting results. We assessed rare, potentially pathogenic variants in ZNF469 for enrichment in keratoconus patients in a cohort larger than all previous studies combined. Methods: ZNF469 was sequenced in 385 Australian keratoconus patients of European descent, 346 population controls, and 230 ethnically matched screened controls by either whole exome sequencing or targeted gene sequencing. The frequency of rare and very rare potentially pathogenic variants was compared between cases and controls using χ2 or Fisher's exact tests and further explored using a gene based test (Sequence Kernel Association Test [SKAT]), weighting on the rarity of variants. Results: A total of 49 rare, including 33 very rare, potentially pathogenic variants were identified across all groups. No enrichment of rare or very rare potentially pathogenic variants in ZNF469 was observed in our cases compared to the control groups following analysis using χ2 or Fisher's exact tests. This finding was further supported by the SKAT results, which found no significant difference in the frequency of variants predicted to be damaging between cases and either control group (P = 0.06). Conclusions: Rare variants in ZNF469 do not contribute to keratoconus susceptibility and do not account for the association at rs9938149.

Impact of the G84E variant on HOXB13 gene and protein expression in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded prostate tumours.

The HOXB13 G84E variant is associated with risk of prostate cancer (PCa), however the role this variant plays in PCa development is unknown. This study examined 751 cases, 450 relatives and 355 controls to determine the contribution of this variant to PCa risk in Tasmania and investigated HOXB13 gene and protein expression in tumours from nine G84E heterozygote variant and 13 wild-type carriers. Quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry showed that HOXB13 gene and protein expression did not differ between tumour samples from variant and wild-type carriers. Allele-specific transcription revealed that two of seven G84E carriers transcribed both the variant and wild-type allele, while five carriers transcribed the wild-type allele. Methylation of surrounding CpG sites was lower in the variant compared to the wild-type allele, however overall methylation across the region was very low. Notably, tumour characteristics were less aggressive in the two variant carriers that transcribed the variant allele compared to the five that did not. This study has shown that HOXB13 expression does not differ between tumour tissue of G84E variant carriers and non-carriers. Intriguingly, the G84E variant allele was rarely transcribed in carriers, suggesting that HOXB13 expression may be driven by the wild-type allele in the majority of carriers.

Genetic variation in the gene LRP2 increases relapse risk in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Due to the lack of prospective studies with longitudinal data on relapse, past genetic studies have not attempted to identify genetic factors that predict relapse risk (the primary endpoint of many pivotal clinical trials testing the efficacy of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying drugs) at a genome-wide scale. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) to identify genetic variants that predict MS relapse risk, using a three-stage approach. First, GWAS was conducted using the southern Tasmania MS Longitudinal Study with 141 cases followed prospectively for a mean of 2.3 years. Second, GWAS was conducted using the Ausimmune Longitudinal Study with 127 cases having a classic first demyelinating event followed for 5 years from onset. Third, the top hits with p<5.0×10-6 from the first two stages were combined with a longitudinal US paediatric MS cohort with 181 cases followed for 5 years after onset. Predictors of time to relapse were evaluated by a mixed effects Cox model. An inverse variance fixed effects model was then used to undertake a meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the pooled results, using these three unique longitudinal MS cohorts, we discovered one novel locus (LRP2; most significant single nucleotide polymorphism rs12988804) that reached genome-wide significance in predicting relapse risk (HR=2.18, p=3.30×10-8). LRP2 is expressed on the surface of many central nervous system cells including neurons and oligodendrocytes and is a critical receptor in axonal guidance. CONCLUSIONS: The finding of a genetic locus that has extensive effects on neuronal development and repair is of interest as a potential modulator of MS disease course.

Variation within MBP gene predicts disease course in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Prognosis following a first demyelinating event is difficult to predict, with no genetic markers of MS progression currently identified. Myelin basic protein (MBP) is a major component of the myelin sheath of CNS neurons and may play a central role in demyelinating diseases such as MS. However, genetic variation in MBP has not been implicated in MS onset risk in large genome-wide association studies. We hypothesized that genetic variations in MBP may be a determinant of MS clinical course. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We investigated whether variations in the MBP gene altered clinical course (conversion to MS and/or relapse, and annualized change in disability), using a prospectively collected longitudinal cohort study of 127 persons who had had a first demyelinating event, followed up to the 5-year review. RESULTS: We found one variant, rs12959006, predicted worse clinical outcomes. The risk genotype (CT + TT) was significantly associated with hazard of relapse (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.19-2.56, p = .005) and of greater annualized disability progression (ß = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.06-0.30, p = .004). We also found a significant interaction between the risk genotype and baseline anti-HHV6 IgG in predicting MS (pinteraction = 0.05) and relapse (pinteraction = 0.02). Functional prediction analysis showed this variant is the target of many transcription factors and the binding sites of miR-218 and miR-188-3p. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide novel insights into the role of genetic variation within the MBP gene predicting MS clinical course, both directly and by interaction with known environmental MS risk factors.

Role of genetic susceptibility variants in predicting clinical course in multiple sclerosis: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The genetic drivers of multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical course are essentially unknown with limited data arising from severity and clinical phenotype analyses in genome-wide association studies. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 127 first demyelinating events with genotype data, where 116 MS risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were assessed as predictors of conversion to MS, relapse and annualised disability progression (Expanded Disability Status Scale, EDSS) up to 5-year review (ΔEDSS). Survival analysis was used to test for predictors of MS and relapse, and linear regression for disability progression. The top 7 SNPs predicting MS/relapse and disability progression were evaluated as a cumulative genetic risk score (CGRS). RESULTS: We identified 2 non-human leucocyte antigen (HLA; rs12599600 and rs1021156) and 1 HLA (rs9266773) SNP predicting both MS and relapse risk. Additionally, 3 non-HLA SNPs predicted only conversion to MS; 1 HLA and 2 non-HLA SNPs predicted only relapse; and 7 non-HLA SNPs predicted ΔEDSS. The CGRS significantly predicted MS and relapse in a significant, dose-dependent manner: those having ≥5 risk genotypes had a 6-fold greater risk of converting to MS and relapse compared with those with ≤2. The CGRS for ΔEDSS was also significant: those carrying ≥6 risk genotypes progressed at 0.48 EDSS points per year faster compared with those with ≤2, and the CGRS model explained 32% of the variance in disability in this study cohort. CONCLUSIONS: These data strongly suggest that MS genetic risk variants significantly influence MS clinical course and that this effect is polygenic.

Genetic loci for Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen-1 are associated with risk of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We sought genetic loci influencing EBV nuclear antigen-1 (EBNA-1) IgG titers and hypothesized that they may play a role in MS risk. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of anti-EBNA-1 IgG titers in 3599 individuals from an unselected twin family cohort, followed by a meta-analysis with data from an independent EBNA-1 GWAS. We then examined the shared polygenic risk between the EBNA-1 GWAS (effective sample size (Neff) = 5555) and a large MS GWAS (Neff = 15,231). RESULTS: We identified one locus of strong association within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region, of which the most significantly associated genotyped single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) was rs2516049 (p = 4.11 × 10-9). A meta-analysis including data from another EBNA-1 GWAS in a cohort of Mexican-American families confirmed that rs2516049 remained the most significantly associated SNP (p = 3.32 × 10-20). By examining the shared polygenic risk, we show that the genetic risk for elevated anti-EBNA-1 titers is positively correlated with the development of MS, and that elevated EBNA-1 titers are not an epiphenomena secondary to MS. In the joint meta-analysis of EBNA-1 titers and MS, loci at 1p22.1, 3p24.1, 3q13.33, and 10p15.1 reached genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10-8). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that apart from the confirmed HLA region, the association of anti-EBNA-1 IgG titer with MS risk is also mediated through non-HLA genes, and that studies aimed at identifying genetic loci influencing EBNA immune response provides a novel opportunity to identify new and characterize existing genetic risk factors for MS.