Invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ from 1990 to 2018 in England: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death related to breast cancer after non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Risks for women in the general population and for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ via the screening programme were compared. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Data from the National Disease Registration Service. PARTICIPANTS: All 27 543 women in England who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, outside the NHS breast screening programme, during 1990 to 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident invasive breast cancer and death caused by breast cancer. RESULTS: By 31 December 2018, 3651 women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had developed invasive breast cancer, more than four times higher than expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed to expected rate was 4.21 (95% conference interval 4.07 to 4.35)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of developing invasive breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up among women aged <45-70 years. The 25 year cumulative risks of invasive breast cancer by age at diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ were 27.3% for <45 years, 25.2% for 45-49 years, 21.7% for 50-59 years, and 20.8% for 60-70 years. 908 women died of breast cancer, almost four times higher than that expected from breast cancer death rates in the general population (ratio of observed to expected rate 3.83 (3.59 to 4.09)). The ratio of observed to expected rate of mortality attributed to breast cancer remained increased throughout follow-up. The 25 year cumulative risks of breast cancer death by age at ductal carcinoma in situ diagnosis were 7.6% for <45 years, 5.8% for 45-49 years, 5.9% for 50-59 years, and 6.2% for 60-70 years. Among women aged 50-64 years, and therefore eligible for breast screening by the NHS, the ratio of observed to expected rate of invasive breast cancer in women with non-screen detected compared with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ was 1.26 (95% conference interval 1.17 to 1.35), while the ratio for mortality from breast cancer was 1.37 (1.17 to 1.60). Among 22 753 women with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ undergoing surgery, those who had mastectomy rather than breast conserving surgery had a lower 25 year cumulative rate of ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (mastectomy 8.2% (95% conference interval 7.0% to 9.4%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 19.8% (16.2% to 23.4%), and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 20.6% (18.7% to 22.4%)). However, reductions did not translate into a lower 25 year cumulative rate of deaths attributable to breast cancer (mastectomy 6.5% (4.9% to 10.9%), breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy 8.6% (5.9% to 15.5%), breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded 7.8% (6.3% to 11.5%)). CONCLUSIONS: For at least 25 years after their diagnosis, women with non-screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ had higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death than women in the general population. Additionally, they had higher long term risks than women with screen detected ductal carcinoma in situ. Mastectomy was associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer than breast conserving surgery, even when accompanied by radiotherapy. However, risks of breast cancer death appeared similar for mastectomy, breast conserving surgery with radiotherapy, and breast conserving surgery with no radiotherapy recorded.

Ki67 and breast cancer mortality in women with invasive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The percentage of cells staining positive for Ki67 is sometimes used for decision-making in patients with early invasive breast cancer (IBC). However, there is uncertainty regarding the most appropriate Ki67 cut points and the influence of interlaboratory measurement variability. We examined the relationship between breast cancer mortality and Ki67 both before and after accounting for interlaboratory variability and 8 patient and tumor characteristics. METHODS: A multicenter cohort study of women with early IBC diagnosed during 2009-2016 in more than 20 NHS hospitals in England and followed until December 31, 2020. RESULTS: Ki67 was strongly prognostic of breast cancer mortality in 8212 women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early IBC (Ptrend < .001). This relationship remained strong after adjustment for patient and tumor characteristics (Ptrend < .001). Standardization for interlaboratory variability did little to alter these results. For women with Ki67 scores of 0%-5%, 6%-10%, 11%-19%, and 20%-29% the corresponding 8-year adjusted cumulative breast cancer mortality risks were 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8% to 4.0%), 3.7% (95% CI = 3.0% to 4.4%), 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), and 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), whereas for women with Ki67 scores of 30%-39% and 40%-100%, these risks were higher, at 5.1% (95% CI = 4.3% to 6.2%) and 7.7% (95% CI = 6.6% to 9.1) (Ptrend < .001). Similar results were obtained when the adjusted analysis was repeated with omission of pathological information about tumor size and nodal involvement, which would not be available preoperatively for patients being considered for neoadjuvant therapy. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm the prognostic value of Ki67 scores of 30% or more in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative early IBC, irrespective of interlaboratory variability. These results also suggest that Ki67 may be useful to aid decision-making in the neoadjuvant setting.

Breast cancer mortality in 500 000 women with early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in England, 1993-2015: population based observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe long term breast cancer mortality among women with a diagnosis of breast cancer in the past and estimate absolute breast cancer mortality risks for groups of patients with a recent diagnosis. DESIGN: Population based observational cohort study. SETTING: Routinely collected data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. PARTICIPANTS: All 512 447 women registered with early invasive breast cancer (involving only breast and possibly axillary nodes) in England during January 1993 to December 2015, with follow-up to December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual breast cancer mortality rates and cumulative risks by time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and nine characteristics of patients and tumours. RESULTS: For women with a diagnosis made within each of the calendar periods 1993-99, 2000-04, 2005-09, and 2010-15, the crude annual breast cancer mortality rate was highest during the five years after diagnosis and then declined. For any given time since diagnosis, crude annual breast cancer mortality rates and risks decreased with increasing calendar period. Crude five year breast cancer mortality risk was 14.4% (95% confidence interval 14.2% to 14.6%) for women with a diagnosis made during 1993-99 and 4.9% (4.8% to 5.0%) for women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15. Adjusted annual breast cancer mortality rates also decreased with increasing calendar period in nearly every patient group, by a factor of about three in oestrogen receptor positive disease and about two in oestrogen receptor negative disease. Considering just the women with a diagnosis made during 2010-15, cumulative five year breast cancer mortality risk varied substantially between women with different characteristics: it was <3% for 62.8% (96 085/153 006) of women but ≥20% for 4.6% (6962/153 006) of women. CONCLUSIONS: These five year breast cancer mortality risks for patients with a recent diagnosis may be used to estimate breast cancer mortality risks for patients today. The prognosis for women with early invasive breast cancer has improved substantially since the 1990s. Most can expect to become long term cancer survivors, although for a few the risk remains appreciable.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 breakthrough infections in patients with cancer (UKCCEP): a population-based test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: People with cancer are at increased risk of hospitalisation and death following infection with SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, we aimed to conduct one of the first evaluations of vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with cancer at a population level. METHODS: In this population-based test-negative case-control study of the UK Coronavirus Cancer Evaluation Project (UKCCEP), we extracted data from the UKCCEP registry on all SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results (from the Second Generation Surveillance System), vaccination records (from the National Immunisation Management Service), patient demographics, and cancer records from England, UK, from Dec 8, 2020, to Oct 15, 2021. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with cancer in the UKCCEP registry were identified via Public Health England's Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset between Jan 1, 2018, and April 30, 2021, and comprised the cancer cohort. We constructed a control population cohort from adults with PCR tests in the UKCCEP registry who were not contained within the Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset. The coprimary endpoints were overall vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infections after the second dose (positive PCR COVID-19 test) and vaccine effectiveness against breakthrough infections at 3-6 months after the second dose in the cancer cohort and control population. FINDINGS: The cancer cohort comprised 377 194 individuals, of whom 42 882 had breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections. The control population consisted of 28 010 955 individuals, of whom 5 748 708 had SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections. Overall vaccine effectiveness was 69·8% (95% CI 69·8-69·9) in the control population and 65·5% (65·1-65·9) in the cancer cohort. Vaccine effectiveness at 3-6 months was lower in the cancer cohort (47·0%, 46·3-47·6) than in the control population (61·4%, 61·4-61·5). INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 vaccination is effective for individuals with cancer, conferring varying levels of protection against breakthrough infections. However, vaccine effectiveness is lower in patients with cancer than in the general population. COVID-19 vaccination for patients with cancer should be used in conjunction with non-pharmacological strategies and community-based antiviral treatment programmes to reduce the risk that COVID-19 poses to patients with cancer. FUNDING: University of Oxford, University of Southampton, University of Birmingham, Department of Health and Social Care, and Blood Cancer UK.

Invasive breast cancer and breast cancer mortality after ductal carcinoma in situ in women attending for breast screening in England, 1988-2014: population based observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer after ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) diagnosed through breast screening. DESIGN: Population based observational cohort study. SETTING: Data from the NHS Breast Screening Programme and the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. PARTICIPANTS: All 35 024 women in England diagnosed as having DCIS by the NHS Breast Screening Programme from its start in 1988 until March 2014. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer. RESULTS: By December 2014, 13 606 women had been followed for up to five years, 10 998 for five to nine years, 6861 for 10-14 years, 2620 for 15-19 years, and 939 for at least 20 years. Among these women, 2076 developed invasive breast cancer, corresponding to an incidence rate of 8.82 (95% confidence interval 8.45 to 9.21) per 1000 women per year and more than double that expected from national cancer incidence rates (ratio of observed rate to expected rate 2.52, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 2.63). The increase started in the second year after diagnosis of DCIS and continued until the end of follow-up. In the same group of women, 310 died from breast cancer, corresponding to a death rate of 1.26 (1.13 to 1.41) per 1000 women per year and 70% higher than that expected from national breast cancer mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 1.70, 1.52 to 1.90). During the first five years after diagnosis of DCIS, the breast cancer death rate was similar to that expected from national mortality rates (observed:expected ratio 0.87, 0.69 to 1.10), but it then increased, with values of 1.98 (1.65 to 2.37), 2.99 (2.41 to 3.70), and 2.77 (2.01 to 3.80) in years five to nine, 10-14, and 15 or more after DCIS diagnosis. Among 29 044 women with unilateral DCIS undergoing surgery, those who had more intensive treatment (mastectomy, radiotherapy for women who had breast conserving surgery, and endocrine treatment in oestrogen receptor positive disease) and those with larger final surgical margins had lower rates of invasive breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: To date, women with DCIS detected by screening have, on average, experienced higher long term risks of invasive breast cancer and death from breast cancer than women in the general population during a period of at least two decades after their diagnosis. More intensive treatment and larger final surgical margins were associated with lower risks of invasive breast cancer.

Endocrine therapy in the years following a diagnosis of breast cancer: A proof of concept study using the primary care prescription database linked to cancer registration data.

INTRODUCTION: National cancer registration data were linked to the Primary Care Prescription Database (PCPD) in England. The level of endocrine therapy (ET) prescribed in women after a diagnosis of breast cancer was studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cancer registrations for women diagnosed with breast cancer during 1995-2015, who survived to 31st March 2015, were linked to ET prescriptions issued during April-July 2015. RESULTS: Among 369 277 survivors of breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2015, 37% were prescribed ET during April-July 2015. Among women whose breast cancer diagnosis was after 31st July 2010, 81% of those recorded with oestrogen receptor positive (ER+ve) disease were prescribed ET compared with only 6% of those with ER-ve disease. Younger women usually received tamoxifen and older women usually received aromatase inhibitors. DISCUSSION: The pattern of ET use observed in these data corresponds to that expected. This provides confidence in the potential of the PCPD for epidemiological research.

A European, Observational Study of Endocrine Therapy Administration in Patients With an Initial Diagnosis of Hormone Receptor-Positive Advanced Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Despite guideline recommendations, reports suggest that a proportion of patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer (LA/MBC) might not receive endocrine therapy. The aims of this study were to estimate the proportion of postmenopausal patients with an initial (primary) diagnosis of HR-positive LA/MBC in Europe, and to assess the administration of endocrine treatment in these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fourteen national and regional cancer registries across Europe were invited to participate in this observational study. Six registries each provided anonymized clinical information on > 5000 postmenopausal women with breast cancer diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2014, including age at diagnosis, estrogen and/or progesterone receptor status, disease stage, and receipt of endocrine therapy. The proportion of patients with an initial diagnosis of HR-positive LA/MBC and, of these, the proportion who received endocrine therapy, was calculated. RESULTS: Registries from Belgium, England, Ireland, Norway, The Netherlands, and Munich, Germany provided data. In total, 316,680 postmenopausal women were diagnosed with breast cancer, including 244,268 with known HR status and disease stage. Of these patients, 19,002 (7.8%) had a primary diagnosis of HR-positive LA/MBC. This proportion ranged from 5.4% (N = 4484) in England to 12.7% (N = 4085) in Germany. Most of these patients (n = 14,157; 74.5%) received endocrine treatment, ranging from 55.5% (n = 445) in Norway to 88.1% (n = 443) in Belgium. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that a sizeable proportion of postmenopausal patients in Europe received a primary diagnosis of HR-positive LA/MBC, and that almost three-quarters received subsequent endocrine therapy as per guideline recommendations.

Short-term breast cancer survival in relation to ethnicity, stage, grade and receptor status: national cohort study in England.

BACKGROUND: In the re-organisation of cancer registration in England in 2012, a high priority was given to the recording of cancer stage and other prognostic clinical data items. METHODS: We extracted 86 852 breast cancer records for women resident in England and diagnosed during 2012-2013. Information on age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, comorbidity, tumour stage, grade, morphology and oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptor status was included. The two-year cumulative risk of death from any cause was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The follow-up ended on 31 December 2014. RESULTS: The completeness of registration for prognostic variables was generally high (around 80% or higher), but it was low for progesterone receptor status (41%). Women with negative receptor status for each of the oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptors (triple-negative cancers) had an adjusted HR for death of 2.00 (95%CI 1.84-2.17). Black women had an age-adjusted HR of 1.77 (1.48-2.13) compared with White women. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality of Black women with breast cancer has contributions from socio-economic factors, stage distribution and tumour biology. The study illustrates the richness of detail in the national cancer registration data. This allows for analysis of cancer outcomes at a high level of resolution, and may form the basis for risk stratification.

Identifying prognostic indicators in staging metastatic sarcomas using hospital episode statistics.

Detailed staging data are currently not available for sarcoma patients. This paper uses Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data to identify patients with Stage IV disease at diagnosis. Cancer patients with a record of metastasis at diagnosis were identified by combining HES data with National Cancer Data Repository data. The presence of metastases at diagnosis varied with age, sarcoma morphological sub-type, and anatomical location. Survival rates for patients with metastases were significantly lower than for those without metastases. Although not a perfect substitute for detailed staging information, the method described provides a good proxy to identify patients with Stage IV disease.

The value of C-reactive protein and comorbidity in predicting survival of patients with high grade soft tissue sarcoma.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine whether C-reactive protein (CRP) levels or patient's comorbidity before treatment predicted the overall disease-specific survival and local tumour control in high grade soft tissue sarcoma patients. METHODS: A total of 332 primary adult soft tissue sarcoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. CRP levels were obtained prior to treatment for all patients. The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was used for evaluation as a measure of comorbidity. Patients that presented with metastases at diagnosis were excluded from this study. RESULTS: Elevated CRP levels were seen in 152 patients. CCI score varied from 0 to 4. Two-hundred and sixty-five patients had a score of 0 (no identified comorbidity), and 67 patients had a score of 1 or more. Patients with elevated CRP levels prior to initial treatment had a poorer disease-specific survival (42% at 5 years) than patients with normal CRP levels (82% at 5 years) (p<0.0001). Patients with elevated CRP levels had a poorer local recurrence-free rate after initial treatment (75% at 5 years) than patients with normal CRP levels (89% at 5 years) (p=0.0004). Multivariate analysis also showed the preoperative CRP level to be an independent predictor of survival and local control. Although age in patients with identified comorbidity was significantly higher than those in patients with no-identified comorbidity, CCI was not a predictive factor for either survival or local control. CONCLUSION: Pretreatment elevated CRP levels were found to be a poor prognostic factor for disease-specific survival and local control for soft tissue sarcoma patients.