Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall in relation to monsoon teleconnections and agriculture at Regional Scale in Haryana, India.

This study examined the long-term (1980-2019) spatio-temporal trends, variability and teleconnections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) of all districts of Haryana, India and their impact on agricultural productivity. The gridded datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to statistically analyse the rainfall distribution, trend, coefficient of variation and intensity of rainfall. The gridded datasets of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis V5 (ERA5) were examined for lower and upper tropospheric wind circulation (850 hPa and 200hpa), vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) and surface moisture flux (SMF). The datasets of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were correlated with ISMR and composite deviation of rainfall and rainfall intensity during El Niño and La Niña from neutral years was examined at district level. Our analysis revealed that districts lying in eastern agroclimatic zone (EAZ) of Haryana received more ISMR during each month of monsoon season as compared to the ones situated in western agroclimatic zone (WAZ). Trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test revealed that Kurukshetra, Panipat, Ambala, Rohtak, Faridabad, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Fatehabad and Palwal have shown a decreasing trend while Mahendragarh and Panchkula have shown an increasing trend of rainfall. During the El Niño years, most of the locations in the state received deficient to large deficient category, whereas during the La Niña episodes, most of the locations received excess to large excess category of ISMR, which is indicative of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the regional scale. The influence of ISMR on bajra productivity for the districts lying in WAZ and rice productivity for the districts lying in EAZ was undertaken. This study is beneficial for understanding the impacts of climate change and climate variability on ISMR dynamics in Haryana which may further guide the policy-makers and beneficiaries for optimising the use of hydrological resources.

Impact of monsoon teleconnections on regional rainfall and vegetation dynamics in Haryana, India.

Our study has investigated the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on spatio-temporal dynamics of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) as well as vegetation for a period of 1980 to 2019 at regional scale in Haryana, India. The gridded rainfall datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) were examined on monthly and seasonal scale using various statistical methods like mean climatology, coefficient of variation, slope of linear, Sen's slope, Mann-Kendall Z statistic, and hierarchical cluster analysis. The influence of ENSO on spatial distribution of ISMR was observed, where we found increasing and decreasing rainfall patterns during La Niña and El Niño years, respectively. We attempted to establish a link between ISMR and various teleconnections using time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Physical Sciences Laboratory, and statistically significant and positive correlation was observed with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), whereas significantly negative correlations were observed with SST of Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions. The gridded datasets of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis V5 (ERA5) were used to evaluate the influence of ENSO on atmospheric dynamics using lower and upper tropospheric wind circulation (850 hPa and200 hpa), vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT), and surface moisture flux (SMF). We have used satellite-based normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets of the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) to investigate the impact of ENSO on vegetation dynamics of Haryana and found that NDVI values were higher and lower in case of La Niña and El Niño years, respectively.