Influence of institutional attributes on fulfillment of transfer and breeding recommendations in zoos and aquariums.

Compliance with Breeding and Transfer Plan (BTP) recommendations is important to promote long-term viability and meet the management goals of the Association of Zoos and Aquarium Species Survival Plans (SSPs®). However, individual institutions may fulfill recommendations at different rates, potentially compromising management efforts. We examined institution-level fulfillment rates of BTP recommendations (i.e, "Hold," "Send To," "Breed With," and "Do Not Breed"), and how rates differ based on institutional attributes related to resource levels, geographic location and climate, involvement in population management, and the SSPs in which institutions participated using conditional random forests and generalized linear mixed models. We analyzed 52,182 recommendations from 375 SSPs issued to 170 institutions in BTPs published from 2012 to 2019. Contrary to predictions, our results did not reveal large differences in fulfillment rates based on resources, geographic location, or climate variables at the institution level. We found modest patterns indicating that recommendation fulfillment for Hold and Do Not Breed recommendations in mammals was lower with longer interplanning periods, while fulfillment of Hold recommendations in birds increased with the average experience of individuals in SSP leadership roles. For herptiles, fulfillment of Send To recommendations was moderately higher in institutions with species spread across more herptile taxonomic advisory groups (the management unit for related species). Although our results suggest that overarching institutional factors do not have a strong influence on fulfillment rates at the scale of our study, more focused research within a specific temporal window, taxa, or suite of SSPs may reveal more informative patterns for population management.

Demographic and life history traits explain patterns in species vulnerability to extinction.

As ecosystems face disruption of community dynamics and habitat loss, the idea of determining ahead of time which species can become extinct is an important subject in conservation biology. A species' vulnerability to extinction is dependent upon both intrinsic (life-history strategies, genetics) and extrinsic factors (environment, anthropogenic threats). Studies linking intrinsic traits to extinction risk have shown variable results, and to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis looking at how demographic patterns in stage-specific survival and reproductive rates correlate to extinction risk. We used matrix projection models from the COMPADRE and COMADRE matrix databases and IUCN Red List status as our proxy of extinction risk to investigate if some demographic patterns are more vulnerable to extinction than others. We obtained data on demographic rates, phylogeny, and IUCN status for 159 species of herbaceous plants, trees, mammals, and birds. We calculated 14 demographic metrics related to different aspects of life history and elasticity values and analyzed whether they differ based on IUCN categories using conditional random forest analysis and phylogenetic generalized least square regressions. We mapped all species within the database, both with IUCN assessment and without, and overlaid them with biodiversity hotspots to investigate if there is bias within the assessed species and how many of the non-assessed species could use the demographic information recorded in COMPADRE and COMADRE for future IUCN assessments. We found that herbaceous perennials are more vulnerable when they mature early and have high juvenile survival rates; birds are more vulnerable with high progressive growth and reproduction; mammals are more vulnerable when they have longer generation times. These patterns may be used to assess relative vulnerability across species when lacking abundance or trend data.

Reasons for unfulfilled breeding and transfer recommendations in zoos and aquariums.

One of the primary tools for cooperatively managing animal populations within the Association of Zoos and Aquariums is through Breeding and Transfer Plan (BTP) recommendations. These recommendations consider population demographics, genetics, husbandry, and institutional needs and aim to improve population viability and long-term sustainability. However, fulfilling (i.e., completing) recommendations can be complicated by biological and logistical challenges. We examined institutional reasons for unfulfilled Breed With, Do Not Breed, Hold, and Send To recommendations collected in surveys in PMCTrack, software for tracking recommendation fulfillment, using descriptive and text-mining methods. Overall, 73 Animal Programs used PMCTrack to distribute 2335 surveys and accrued responses from 167 zoos and aquariums from 2007 to 2019, with a response rate of 56% (n = 1307). For Breed With recommendations, common reasons were related to an individual animal's status and a pair's breeding behavior; for all other recommendation types, reasons were often management or logistical factors. Most Breed With recommendations were attempted (≥55%) but did not result in detectable pregnancy/eggs or offspring, due to pair incompatibility or not enough time to successfully produce offspring. Hold and Do Not Breed recommendations were often unfulfilled because the BTP recommendation was replaced with an interim (i.e., updated) recommendation during the inter-planning period. Our results support the importance of some common population management practices, such as maintaining breeding pairs/groups for multiple BTPs to improve mate familiarity, examining husbandry mechanisms to promote breeding success, and making a concerted effort to adhere to planning timelines to facilitate transfers in alignment with breeding seasons.

Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects.

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human-natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human-natural systems.

Sex-specific median life expectancies from ex situ populations for 330 animal species.

We present life expectancy estimates for hundreds of vertebrate species based on carefully vetted studbook data from North American zoos and aquariums. These data include sex-specific median life expectancies as well as sample size and 95% confidence limits for each estimate. Existing longevity data for animals primarily consist of maximum lifespan values, which are single observations rather than statistically derived estimates of longevity. Moreover, all of our estimates are based on the same type of data and calculated using consistent, standardized methods. To derive these estimates, we conducted Kaplan-Meier survival analyses using individual-level demographic data (i.e., records of birth and mortality events) from studbook records for each ex situ population. Our species set represents a range of vertebrate taxa (primarily mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) and diverse life histories. This dataset will have broad utility, not only for informing comparative demographic and life history studies, but also more broadly for any research or conservation application that requires sex- or species-specific life expectancy information.

Evaluating the Contribution of North American Zoos and Aquariums to Endangered Species Recovery.

The challenge of recovering threatened species necessitates collaboration among diverse conservation partners. Zoos and aquariums have long partnered with other conservation organizations and government agencies to help recover species through a range of in situ and ex situ conservation projects. These efforts tend to be conducted by individual facilities and for individual species, and thus the scope and magnitude of these actions at the national level are not well understood. Here we evaluate the means and extent to which North American zoos and aquariums contribute to the recovery of species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), by synthesizing data from federal recovery plans for listed species and from annual surveys conducted by the Association of Zoos and Aquariums. We found that in addition to managing ex situ assurance populations, zoos frequently conduct conservation research and field-based population monitoring and assessments. Cooperatively managed populations in zoos tend to focus on species that are not listed on the ESA or on foreign listings, and thus it may be beneficial for zoos to manage more native threatened species. Our results highlight the existing contributions, but also identify additional opportunities for the zoo community to help recover threatened species.

Species-level persistence probabilities for recovery and conservation status assessment.

Recovery planning for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act has been hampered by a lack of consistency and transparency, which can be improved by implementing a standardized approach for evaluating species status and developing measurable recovery criteria. However, managers lack an assessment method that integrates threat abatement and can be used when demographic data are limited. To help meet these needs, we demonstrated an approach for evaluating species status based on habitat configuration data. We applied 3 established persistence measures (patch occupancy, metapopulation capacity, and proportion of population lost) to compare 2 conservation strategies (critical habitat designated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Forest Service's Carbonate Habitat Management Strategy) and 2 threat scenarios (maximum limestone mining, removal of all habitat in areas with mining claims; minimum mining, removal of habitat only in areas with existing operations and high-quality ore) against a baseline of existing habitat for 3 federally listed plant species. Protecting all area within the designated critical habitat maintained a similar level (83.9-99.9%) of species persistence as the baseline, whereas maximum mining greatly reduced persistence (0.51-38.4% maintained). The 3 persistence measures provided complementary insights reflecting different aspects of habitat availability (total area, number of patches, patch size, and connectivity). These measures can be used to link recovery criteria developed following the 3 R principles (representation, redundancy, and resilience) to the resulting improvements in species viability. By focusing on amount and distribution of habitat, our method provides a means of assessing the status of data-poor species to inform decision making under the Endangered Species Act.

Actual and potential use of population viability analyses in recovery of plant species listed under the US endangered species act.

Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade-offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty-four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species' entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive-management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long-term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science-based recovery criteria for endangered species with minimal data availability. Uso Actual y Potencial del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional para la Recuperación de Especies de Plantas Enlistadas en el Acta de Especies En Peligro de E.U.A.

Predicting recovery criteria for threatened and endangered plant species on the basis of past abundances and biological traits.

Recovery plans for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act are required to specify measurable criteria that can be used to determine when the species can be delisted. For the 642 listed endangered and threatened plant species that have recovery plans, we applied recursive partitioning methods to test whether the number of individuals or populations required for delisting can be predicted on the basis of distributional and biological traits, previous abundance at multiple time steps, or a combination of traits and previous abundances. We also tested listing status (threatened or endangered) and the year the recovery plan was written as predictors of recovery criteria. We analyzed separately recovery criteria that were stated as number of populations and as number of individuals (population-based and individual-based criteria, respectively). Previous abundances alone were relatively good predictors of population-based recovery criteria. Fewer populations, but a greater proportion of historically known populations, were required to delist species that had few populations at listing compared with species that had more populations at listing. Previous abundances were also good predictors of individual-based delisting criteria when models included both abundances and traits. The physiographic division in which the species occur was also a good predictor of individual-based criteria. Our results suggest managers are relying on previous abundances and patterns of decline as guidelines for setting recovery criteria. This may be justifiable in that previous abundances inform managers of the effects of both intrinsic traits and extrinsic threats that interact and determine extinction risk.

Testing surrogacy assumptions: can threatened and endangered plants be grouped by biological similarity and abundances?

There is renewed interest in implementing surrogate species approaches in conservation planning due to the large number of species in need of management but limited resources and data. One type of surrogate approach involves selection of one or a few species to represent a larger group of species requiring similar management actions, so that protection and persistence of the selected species would result in conservation of the group of species. However, among the criticisms of surrogate approaches is the need to test underlying assumptions, which remain rarely examined. In this study, we tested one of the fundamental assumptions underlying use of surrogate species in recovery planning: that there exist groups of threatened and endangered species that are sufficiently similar to warrant similar management or recovery criteria. Using a comprehensive database of all plant species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and tree-based random forest analysis, we found no evidence of species groups based on a set of distributional and biological traits or by abundances and patterns of decline. Our results suggested that application of surrogate approaches for endangered species recovery would be unjustified. Thus, conservation planning focused on individual species and their patterns of decline will likely be required to recover listed species.