Can platform use patterns be an indicator of HIV-related risk and sub-group heterogeneity among men who have sex with men in Singapore: a latent class analysis.

Introduction: Low-level HIV epidemic settings like Singapore face the challenge of reaching men at-risk who have less contact with programmes. We investigated patterns of meeting platform use by men seeking male sexual partners (MSM) as potential marker of risk to differentiate sub-groups for interventions. Methods: Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was applied to a survey sample of MSM recruited from bars/clubs, saunas and a smartphone application, using purposive sampling. The best-fit LCA model which identified homogeneous sub-groups with similar patterns of meeting platform was factored in multivariable regression to identify associations with risk behaviors on the pathway to HIV infection. Results: Overall 1,141 MSM were recruited from bars/clubs (n = 426), saunas (n = 531), and online (n = 184). Five patterns emerged, reflecting salient platform use characteristics: Sauna-centric (SC; n = 413), App-centric (AC; n = 276), Multiple-platforms (MP; n = 123), Platform-inactive (PI; n = 257), and "Do not hook up" (DNH; n = 72) classes. Men in the SC and MP classes had high probabilities of using saunas to meet partners; SC were older and less likely to have disclosed their sexual orientation. The MP class had high probabilities of connecting across all platforms in addition to saunas and more likely to have disclosed their sexual orientation, than the PI class. Men in the SC and MP classes had twice the odds of reporting multiple sex partners (aORSC = 2.1; 95%CI: 1.33.2; aORMP = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.14.6). Single/non-partnered MSM and those using alcohol/drugs during sex had 1.7 (95%CI: 1.22.5) and 3.2 (95%CI: 2.05.1) the odds respectively, of reporting multiple sex partners. The SC and MP classes had higher odds of engaging in group sex while MSM using alcohol/drugs during sex had twice the odds of reporting group sex. Alcohol/drugs and group sex were independently associated with condomless sex (as was lower education). Group sex, alcohol/drugs during sex, disclosure of sexual orientation or being Singaporean/permanent resident were associated with recent testing for HIV. Discussion: The five distinct risk profiles identified can help tailor differentiated HIV interventions-combined with field knowledge and other prevention-to expand HIV self-testing, Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis and other services (e.g., Mpox vaccination) to sub-groups at risk.

Influenza A and B Viruses in Fine Aerosols of Exhaled Breath Samples from Patients in Tropical Singapore.

Influenza is a highly contagious respiratory illness that commonly causes outbreaks among human communities. Details about the exact nature of the droplets produced by human respiratory activities such as breathing, and their potential to carry and transmit influenza A and B viruses is still not fully understood. The objective of our study was to characterize and quantify influenza viral shedding in exhaled aerosols from natural patient breath, and to determine their viral infectivity among participants in a university cohort in tropical Singapore. Using the Gesundheit-II exhaled breath sampling apparatus, samples of exhaled breath of two aerosol size fractions ("coarse" > 5 µm and "fine" ≤ 5 µm) were collected and analyzed from 31 study participants, i.e., 24 with influenza A (including H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes) and 7 with influenza B (including Victoria and Yamagata lineages). Influenza viral copy number was quantified using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Infectivity of influenza virus in the fine particle fraction was determined by culturing in Madin-Darby canine kidney cells. Exhaled influenza virus RNA generation rates ranged from 9 to 1.67 × 105 and 10 to 1.24 × 104 influenza virus RNA copies per minute for the fine and coarse aerosol fractions, respectively. Compared to the coarse aerosol fractions, influenza A and B viruses were detected more frequently in the fine aerosol fractions that harbored 12-fold higher viral loads. Culturable virus was recovered from the fine aerosol fractions from 9 of the 31 subjects (29%). These findings constitute additional evidence to reiterate the important role of fine aerosols in influenza transmission and provide a baseline range of influenza virus RNA generation rates.

DYNAMIC cohort study evaluating metabolic predictors of influenza vaccine immune response in older adults.

Immunosenescence (age-related immune dysfunction) and inflamm-aging contribute to suboptimal immune responses in older adults to standard-dose influenza vaccines, which may be exacerbated in those with metabolic co-morbidities. We sought to investigate metabolic factors/predictors of influenza vaccine immune response in an older adult (age ≥65 years) cohort in Singapore, where influenza typically circulates year-round. The primary outcome for the DYNAMIC prospective cohort study was haemagglutination-inhibition titer (HAI) response to each of the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine strains at day 28 (D28) compared to baseline (D0), as assessed by seroconversion and D28/D0 log2 HAI fold rise. Baseline blood samples were tested for total Vitamin D (25-(OH) D) levels. We enrolled 234 participants in June-Dec 2017. Two hundred twenty completed all study visits. The median age was 71 [IQR 68-75] years, 67 (30.5%) had diabetes mellitus (DM), and the median BMI was 24.9 [IQR 22.2-27.8] kg/m2. Median baseline totals 25-(OH) D was 29 [IQR: 21-29] ng/ml. Age, DM, obesity, and baseline 25-(OH) D were not associated with HAI fold rise in multivariable analysis. More recent prior influenza vaccination and higher baseline HAI titers were associated with lower HAI fold rise for influenza A/HK/H3N2. Physical activity was associated with a higher HAI fold rise for influenza A/HK/H3N2 in a dose-response relationship (p-test for trend = 0.015). Older adults with well-controlled metabolic co-morbidities retain HAI response to the influenza vaccine, and physical activity had a beneficial effect on immune response, particularly for influenza A/HK/H3N2.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emerged under immune selection.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage) escapes antibodies that neutralize the ancestral virus. We tested human serum panels from participants with differing infection and vaccination status using a multiplex surrogate virus neutralization assay targeting 20 sarbecoviruses. We found that bat and pangolin sarbecoviruses showed significantly less neutralization escape than the Omicron variant. We propose that SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged under immune selection pressure and are evolving differently from animal sarbecoviruses.

Pan-Sarbecovirus Neutralizing Antibodies in BNT162b2-Immunized SARS-CoV-1 Survivors.

Emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern pose a challenge to the effectiveness of current vaccines. A vaccine that could prevent infection caused by known and future variants of concern as well as infection with pre-emergent sarbecoviruses (i.e., those with potential to cause disease in humans in the future) would be ideal. Here we provide data showing that potent cross-clade pan-sarbecovirus neutralizing antibodies are induced in survivors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1) infection who have been immunized with the BNT162b2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. The antibodies are high-level and broad-spectrum, capable of neutralizing not only known variants of concern but also sarbecoviruses that have been identified in bats and pangolins and that have the potential to cause human infection. These findings show the feasibility of a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine strategy. (Funded by the Singapore National Research Foundation and National Medical Research Council.).

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibody responses and duration of immunity: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have found different waning rates of neutralising antibodies compared with binding antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. The impact of neutralising antibody waning rate at the individual patient level on the longevity of immunity remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the peak levels and dynamics of neutralising antibody waning and IgG avidity maturation over time, and correlate this with clinical parameters, cytokines, and T-cell responses. METHODS: We did a longitudinal study of patients who had recovered from COVID-19 up to day 180 post-symptom onset by monitoring changes in neutralising antibody levels using a previously validated surrogate virus neutralisation test. Changes in antibody avidities and other immune markers at different convalescent stages were determined and correlated with clinical features. Using a machine learning algorithm, temporal change in neutralising antibody levels was classified into five groups and used to predict the longevity of neutralising antibody-mediated immunity. FINDINGS: We approached 517 patients for participation in the study, of whom 288 consented for outpatient follow-up and collection of serial blood samples. 164 patients were followed up and had adequate blood samples collected for analysis, with a total of 546 serum samples collected, including 128 blood samples taken up to 180 days post-symptom onset. We identified five distinctive patterns of neutralising antibody dynamics as follows: negative, individuals who did not, at our intervals of sampling, develop neutralising antibodies at the 30% inhibition level (19 [12%] of 164 patients); rapid waning, individuals who had varying levels of neutralising antibodies from around 20 days after symptom onset, but seroreverted in less than 180 days (44 [27%] of 164 patients); slow waning, individuals who remained neutralising antibody-positive at 180 days post-symptom onset (46 [28%] of 164 patients); persistent, although with varying peak neutralising antibody levels, these individuals had minimal neutralising antibody decay (52 [32%] of 164 patients); and delayed response, a small group that showed an unexpected increase of neutralising antibodies during late convalescence (at 90 or 180 days after symptom onset; three [2%] of 164 patients). Persistence of neutralising antibodies was associated with disease severity and sustained level of pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. By contrast, T-cell responses were similar among the different neutralising antibody dynamics groups. On the basis of the different decay dynamics, we established a prediction algorithm that revealed a wide range of neutralising antibody longevity, varying from around 40 days to many decades. INTERPRETATION: Neutralising antibody response dynamics in patients who have recovered from COVID-19 vary greatly, and prediction of immune longevity can only be accurately determined at the individual level. Our findings emphasise the importance of public health and social measures in the ongoing pandemic outbreak response, and might have implications for longevity of immunity after vaccination. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council, Biomedical Research Council, and A*STAR, Singapore.

A SARS-CoV-2 surrogate virus neutralization test based on antibody-mediated blockage of ACE2-spike protein-protein interaction.

A robust serological test to detect neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is urgently needed to determine not only the infection rate, herd immunity and predicted humoral protection, but also vaccine efficacy during clinical trials and after large-scale vaccination. The current gold standard is the conventional virus neutralization test requiring live pathogen and a biosafety level 3 laboratory. Here, we report a SARS-CoV-2 surrogate virus neutralization test that detects total immunodominant neutralizing antibodies targeting the viral spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain in an isotype- and species-independent manner. Our simple and rapid test is based on antibody-mediated blockage of the interaction between the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor protein and the receptor-binding domain. The test, which has been validated with two cohorts of patients with COVID-19 in two different countries, achieves 99.93% specificity and 95-100% sensitivity, and differentiates antibody responses to several human coronaviruses. The surrogate virus neutralization test does not require biosafety level 3 containment, making it broadly accessible to the wider community for both research and clinical applications.

Serological differentiation between COVID-19 and SARS infections.

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, caused by SARS-CoV-2, multiple diagnostic tests are required for acute disease diagnosis, contact tracing, monitoring asymptomatic infection rates and assessing herd immunity. While PCR remains the frontline test of choice in the acute diagnostic setting, serological tests are urgently needed. Unlike PCR tests which are highly specific, cross-reactivity is a major challenge for COVID-19 antibody tests considering there are six other coronaviruses known to infect humans. SARS-CoV is genetically related to SARS-CoV-2 sharing approximately 80% sequence identity and both belong to the species SARS related coronavirus in the genus Betacoronavirus of family Coronaviridae. We developed and compared the performance of four different serological tests to comprehensively assess the cross-reactivity between COVID-19 and SARS patient sera. There is significant cross-reactivity when N protein of either virus is used. The S1 or RBD regions from the spike (S) protein offers better specificity. Amongst the different platforms, capture ELISA performed best. We found that SARS survivors all have significant levels of antibodies remaining in their blood 17 years after infection. Anti-N antibodies waned more than anti-RBD antibodies, and the latter is known to play a more important role in providing protective immunity.

Lack of cross-neutralization by SARS patient sera towards SARS-CoV-2.

Despite initial findings indicating that SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are genetically related belonging to the same virus species and that the two viruses used the same entry receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), our data demonstrated that there is no detectable cross-neutralization by SARS patient sera against SARS-CoV-2. We also found that there are significant levels of neutralizing antibodies in recovered SARS patients 9-17 years after initial infection. These findings will be of significant use in guiding the development of serologic tests, formulating convalescent plasma therapy strategies, and assessing the longevity of protective immunity for SARS-related coronaviruses in general as well as vaccine efficacy.

Investigation of three clusters of COVID-19 in Singapore: implications for surveillance and response measures.

BACKGROUND: Three clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) linked to a tour group from China, a company conference, and a church were identified in Singapore in February, 2020. METHODS: We gathered epidemiological and clinical data from individuals with confirmed COVID-19, via interviews and inpatient medical records, and we did field investigations to assess interactions and possible modes of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Open source reports were obtained for overseas cases. We reported the median (IQR) incubation period of SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: As of Feb 15, 2020, 36 cases of COVID-19 were linked epidemiologically to the first three clusters of circumscribed local transmission in Singapore. 425 close contacts were quarantined. Direct or prolonged close contact was reported among affected individuals, although indirect transmission (eg, via fomites and shared food) could not be excluded. The median incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 was 4 days (IQR 3-6). The serial interval between transmission pairs ranged between 3 days and 8 days. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 is transmissible in community settings, and local clusters of COVID-19 are expected in countries with high travel volume from China before the lockdown of Wuhan and institution of travel restrictions. Enhanced surveillance and contact tracing is essential to minimise the risk of widespread transmission in the community. FUNDING: None.

Molecular insights into evolution, mutations and receptor-binding specificity of influenza A and B viruses from outpatients and hospitalized patients in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: This study compared the genomes of influenza viruses that caused mild infections among outpatients and severe infections among hospitalized patients in Singapore, and characterized their molecular evolution and receptor-binding specificity. METHODS: The complete genomes of influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and B viruses that caused mild infections among outpatients and severe infections among inpatients in Singapore during 2012-2015 were sequenced and characterized. Using various bioinformatics approaches, we elucidated their evolutionary, mutational and structural patterns against the background of global and vaccine strains. RESULTS: The phylogenetic trees of the 8 gene segments revealed that the outpatient and inpatient strains overlapped with representative global and vaccine strains. We observed a cluster of inpatients with A/H3N2 strains that were closely related to vaccine strain A/Texas/50/2012(H3N2). Several protein sites could accurately discriminate between outpatient versus inpatient strains, with site 221 in neuraminidase (NA) achieving the highest accuracy for A/H3N2. Interestingly, amino acid residues of inpatient but not outpatient isolates at those sites generally matched the corresponding residues in vaccine strains, except at site 145 of hemagglutinin (HA). This would be especially relevant for future surveillance of A/H3N2 strains in relation to their antigenicity and virulence. Furthermore, we observed a trend in which the HA proteins of influenza A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 exhibited enhanced ability to bind both avian and human host cell receptors. In contrast, the binding ability to each receptor was relatively stable for the HA of influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings extend our understanding of the molecular and structural evolution of influenza virus strains in Singapore within the global context of these dynamic viruses.

Estimating the size of key populations for HIV in Singapore using the network scale-up method.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates-adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects-of at-risk populations in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics. RESULTS: The adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000). CONCLUSIONS: The NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies.

Investigating the Legacy of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Age-Related Seroepidemiology and Immune Responses to Subsequent Influenza A(H1N1) Viruses Through a Structural Equation Model.

A(H1N1) strains of Influenzavirus were responsible for 2 pandemics in the last 100 years. Because infections experienced early in life may have a long-lasting influence on future immune response against other influenza strains, we drew on previously collected seroincidence data from Singapore (n = 2,554; June-October 2009) to investigate whether the 1918 pandemic influenza virus and its early descendants produced an age-related signature in immune responses against the A/California/7/2009(H1N1)pdm09 virus of 2009. Hemagglutination inhibition assays revealed a J-shaped relationship; the oldest birth cohort (born in 1911-1926) had the highest titers, followed by the youngest (born in 1987-1992). Differential response by vaccination history was also observed, with seasonal influenza vaccine being associated with higher titers mainly in the oldest birth cohort. On the assumption that antibody titers are a correlate of protection, structural equation modeling predicted that a titer-mediated effect by the vaccine could, on its own, account for a negative association with seroconversion equivalent to a risk reduction of 23% (relative risk = 0.77, 95% confidence interval: 0.60, 0.99) in the oldest birth cohort. A subset of 503 samples tested against the A/Brisbane/59/2007(H1N1) and A/Puerto Rico/8/1934(H1N1) strains also revealed different age-related antibody profiles. The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines against future pandemic strains could thus be age-dependent and related to early-life exposures.

The utility of LASSO-based models for real time forecasts of endemic infectious diseases: A cross country comparison.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate and timely prediction for endemic infectious diseases is vital for public health agencies to plan and carry out any control methods at an early stage of disease outbreaks. Climatic variables has been identified as important predictors in models for infectious disease forecasts. Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to produce accurate and timely predictions and potentially improve public health response. METHODS: We assessed how the machine learning LASSO method may be useful in providing useful forecasts for different pathogens in countries with different climates. Separate LASSO models were constructed for different disease/country/forecast window with different model complexity by including different sets of predictors to assess the importance of different predictors under various conditions. RESULTS: There was a more apparent cyclicity for both climatic variables and incidence in regions further away from the equator. For most diseases, predictions made beyond 4 weeks ahead were increasingly discrepant from the actual scenario. Prediction models were more accurate in capturing the outbreak but less sensitive to predict the outbreak size. In different situations, climatic variables have different levels of importance in prediction accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: For LASSO models used for prediction, including different sets of predictors has varying effect in different situations. Short term predictions generally perform better than longer term predictions, suggesting public health agencies may need the capacity to respond at short-notice to early warnings.

Efficacy of multicomponent culturally tailored HIV/ STI prevention interventions targeting foreign female entertainment workers: a quasi-experimental trial.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the efficacy of a multicomponent culturally tailored HIV/STI prevention intervention programme on consistent condom use and STI incidence among foreign Thai and Vietnamese female entertainment workers (FEWs) in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a quasi-experimental pretest and post-test intervention trial with a comparison group. We recruited 220 participants (115 Vietnamese and 105 Thai) for the comparison group, followed by the intervention group (same number) from the same sites which were purposively selected after a 3-month interval period. Both groups completed a self-administered anonymous questionnaire and STI testing for cervical gonorrhoea and Chlamydia, as well as pharyngeal gonorrhoea at baseline and 6-week follow-up. The peer-led intervention consisted of behavioural (HIV/STI education and condom negotiation skills), biomedical (STI screening and treatment services) and structural components (access to free condoms). We used the mixed effects Poisson regression model accounting for clustering by establishment venue to compute the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of the outcomes at follow-up. RESULTS: At follow-up, the intervention group was more likely than the comparison group to report consistent condom use for vaginal sex with paid (aRR 1.77; 95% CI 1.71 to 1.83) and casual (aRR 1.81; 95% CI 1.71 to 1.91) partners. For consistent condom use for oral sex, this was aRR 1.50; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.82 with paid and aRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.95 with casual partners. STI incidence at follow-up was significantly lower in the intervention (6.8 per 100 FEWs) than the comparison (14.8 per 100 FEWs) group (aRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: This trial was effective in promoting consistent condom use for vaginal and oral sex as well as reducing STI incidence among the foreign Thai and Vietnamese FEWs in Singapore. The feasibility of scaling up the interventions to all entertainment establishments in Singapore should be assessed.

Public preferences for interventions to prevent emerging infectious disease threats: a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: When faced with an emergent epidemic with high mortality and morbidity potential, policy makers must decide what public health interventions to deploy at different stages of the outbreak. However, almost nothing is known about how the public view these interventions or how they trade off risks (of disease) with inconvenience (of interventions). In this paper, we aim to understand public perceptions on pandemic interventions, as well as to identify if there are any distinct respondent preference classes. DESIGN: A discrete choice experiment. SETTING: This study was fielded in Singapore between November 2012 and February 2013. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 500 Singapore residents aged 21 and over, including 271 women and 229 men, was analysed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographic information was collected from each participant. Participants were also shown a series of pairs of alternatives, each combining interventions and morbidity, mortality and cost outcomes and declared a preference for one combination. A random utility model was developed to determine the individual's preference for interventions and a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to identify distinct respondent preference classes. RESULTS: On average, participants preferred more intense interventions, and preferred scenarios with fewer deaths and lower tax. The number of infections did not significantly influence respondents' responses. We identified two broad classes of respondents: those who were mortality averse and those who were expenditure averse. Education was found to be a predictor of group membership. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was considerable support for government interventions to prevent or mitigate outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, including those that greatly restricted individual liberties, as long as the restrictions showed a reasonable chance of reducing the adverse health effects of the outbreak.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccinations against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated infections among Singapore military personnel in 2010-2013.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in tropical communities. OBJECTIVES: Virus subtype-specific VE was determined for all military service personnel in the recruit camp and three other non-recruit camp in Singapore's Armed Forces from 1 June 2009 to 30 June 2012. METHODS: Consenting servicemen underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. The test positive case and test negative control design was used to estimate the VE. To estimate the overall effect of the programme on new recruits, we used an ecological time series approach. RESULTS: A total of 7016 consultations were collected. The crude estimates for the VE of the triavalent vaccine against both influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B were 84% (95% CI 78-88%, 79-86%, respectively). Vaccine efficacy against influenza A(H3N2) was markedly lower (VE 33%, 95% CI -4% to 57%). An estimated 70% (RR = 0.30; 95% CI 0.11-0.84), 39% (RR = 0.61;0.25-1.43) and 75% (RR = 0.25; 95% CI 0.11-0.50) reduction in the risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B infections, respectively, in the recruit camp during the post-vaccination period compared with during the pre-vaccination period was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the blanket influenza vaccine programme in Singapore's Armed Forces has had a moderate to high degree of protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, but not against influenza A(H3N2). Blanket influenza vaccination is recommended for all military personnel.

Factors influencing infection by pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 over three epidemic waves in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Previous influenza pandemics had second and on occasion third waves in many countries that were at times more severe than the initial pandemic waves. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to determine the seroepidemiology of successive waves of H1N1pdm09 infections in Singapore and the overall risks of infection. METHODS: We performed a cohort study amongst 838 adults, with blood samples provided upon recruitment and at 5 points from 2009 to 2011 and tested by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) with A/California/7/2009 (H1N1pdm09). Surveys on key demographic and clinical information were conducted at regular intervals, and associations between seroconversion and these variables were investigated. RESULTS: After the initial wave from June to September 2009, second and third waves occurred from November 2009 to February 2010 and April to June 2010, respectively. Seroconversion was 13·5% during the first wave and decreased to 6·2% and 6·8% in subsequent waves. Across the three waves, the elderly and those with higher starting HI titres were at lower risk of seroconversion, while those with larger households were at greater risk. Those with higher starting HI titres were also less likely to have an acute respiratory infection. CONCLUSIONS: The second and third waves in Singapore had lower serological attack rates than the first wave. The elderly and those with higher HI titres had lower risk, while those in larger households had higher risk of seroconversion.

Teacher led school-based surveillance can allow accurate tracking of emerging infectious diseases - evidence from serial cross-sectional surveys of febrile respiratory illness during the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Schools are important foci of influenza transmission and potential targets for surveillance and interventions. We compared several school-based influenza monitoring systems with clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance, and assessed the variation in illness rates between and within schools. METHODS: During the initial wave of pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) infections from June to Sept 2009 in Singapore, we collected data on nation-wide laboratory confirmed cases (Sch-LCC) and daily temperature monitoring (Sch-DTM), and teacher-led febrile respiratory illness reporting in 6 sentinel schools (Sch-FRI). Comparisons were made against age-stratified clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) data from 23 primary care clinics (GP-ILI) and proportions of ILI testing positive for pdmH1N1 (Lab-ILI) by computing the fraction of cumulative incidence occurring by epidemiological week 30 (when GP-ILI incidence peaked); and cumulative incidence rates between school-based indicators and sero-epidemiological pdmH1N1 incidence (estimated from changes in prevalence of A/California/7/2009 H1N1 hemagglutination inhibition titers ≥ 40 between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic sera). Variation in Sch-FRI rates in the 6 schools was also investigated through a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: By week 30, for primary and secondary school children respectively, 63% and 79% of incidence for Sch-LCC had occurred, compared with 50% and 52% for GP-ILI data, and 48% and 53% for Sch-FRI. There were 1,187 notified cases and 7,588 episodes in the Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM systems; given school enrollment of 485,723 children, this represented 0.24 cases and 1.6 episodes per 100 children respectively. Mean Sch-FRI rate was 28.8 per 100 children (95% CI: 27.7 to 29.9) in the 6 schools. We estimate from serology that 41.8% (95% CI: 30.2% to 55.9%) of primary and 43.2% (95% CI: 28.2% to 60.8%) of secondary school-aged children were infected. Sch-FRI rates were similar across the 6 schools (23 to 34 episodes per 100 children), but there was widespread variation by classrooms; in the hierarchical model, omitting age and school effects was inconsequential but neglecting classroom level effects led to highly significant reductions in goodness of fit. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemic curves from Sch-FRI were comparable to GP-ILI data, and Sch-FRI detected substantially more infections than Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM. Variability in classroom attack rates suggests localized class-room transmission.

Higher risk of infection with dengue at the weekend among male Singaporeans.

A growing body of evidence suggests that dengue infection in Singapore predominantly occurs away from the home, but when and where dengue transmission occurs is unclear, confounding control efforts. The authors estimate days of the week in which dengue inpatients in Singapore were infected during the period 2006-2008, based on the day they became febrile and historical data on the incubation period, using Bayesian statistical methods. Among male inpatients, the relative risk of infection is an estimated 57% higher at the weekend, suggesting infections associated with the home or leisure activities. There was no evidence of elevated risk of infection at the weekend for female inpatients. The study motivates further research identifying locales frequented in the week leading up to onset to improve the effective targeting of vector control efforts.