Clinical characteristics and predictors of human mpox outcome during the 2022 outbreak in Nigeria: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research from sub-Saharan Africa that contributes to our understanding of the 2022 mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) global outbreak is insufficient. Here, we describe the clinical presentation and predictors of severe disease among patients with mpox diagnosed between Feb 1, 2022, and Jan 30, 2023 in Nigeria. METHODS: We did a cohort study among laboratory-confirmed and probable mpox cases seen in 22 mpox-treatment centres and outpatient clinics across Nigeria. All individuals with confirmed and probable mpox were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were individuals who could not be examined for clinical characterisation and those who had unknown mortality outcomes. Skin lesion swabs or crust samples were collected from each patient for mpox diagnosis by PCR. A structured questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic and clinical data, including HIV status, complications, and treatment outcomes from the time of diagnosis to discharge or death. Severe disease was defined as mpox associated with death or with a life-threatening complication. Two logistic regression models were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with severe disease and potential risk factors for severe disease. The primary outcome was the clinical characteristics of mpox and disease severity. FINDINGS: We enrolled 160 people with mpox from 22 states in Nigeria, including 134 (84%) adults, 114 (71%) males, 46 (29%) females, and 25 (16%) people with HIV. Of the 160 patients, distinct febrile prodrome (n=94, 59%), rash count greater than 250 (90, 56%), concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (n=48, 30%), and hospital admission (n=70, 48%) were observed. Nine (6%) of the 160 patients died, including seven (78%) deaths attributable to sepsis. The clinical features independently associated with severe disease were a rash count greater than 10 000 (adjusted odds ratio 26·1, 95% CI 5·2-135·0, p<0·0001) and confluent or semi-confluent rash (6·7, 95% CI 1·9-23·9). Independent risk factors for severe disease were concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (3·6, 95% CI 1·1-11·5) and advanced HIV disease (35·9, 95% CI 4·1-252·9). INTERPRETATION: During the 2022 global outbreak, mpox in Nigeria was more severe among those with advanced HIV disease and concomitant varicella zoster virus infection. Proactive screening, management of co-infections, the integration and strengthening of mpox and HIV surveillance, and preventive and treatment services should be prioritised in Nigeria and across Africa. FUNDING: None.

An Epidemiological Investigation of Lassa Fever Outbreak in Ebonyi State South Eastern Nigeria Lessons Learnt (January to March 2018).

Background: We investigated an outbreak of Lassa fever that occurred in Ebonyi state, Southeast Nigeria from January to March 2018. Methodology: The Emergency operational centre (EOC) model was used for the outbreak coordination. Cases and deaths were identified through the routine surveillance system. Blood specimens collected from suspected cases were sent for confirmation at the Virology Centre, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki (AEFUTHA). Active case search was instituted, and identified contacts of confirmed cases were followed up for the maximum incubation period of the disease. Other public health responses included infection prevention and control, communication and advocacy as well as case management. Data collected were analysed using the Epi info statistical software package. Results: We identified 89 suspected Lassa Fever (LF) cases out of which 61 were confirmed. The mean age was 35±16.2 and the age group mostly affected was 30-39 years. More than half (59.7%) of the confirmed cases were females. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) was 26.2% among the laboratory confirmed cases. Five of the deaths occurred among health care workers. Out of 325 contacts of the confirmed cases, 304(99.7%) completed the follow-up and only 1(0.3%) of them developed symptoms consistent with LF and was confirmed by the laboratory. Conclusions: The high CFR in those presenting late to the hospital underscores the need for intensive public enlightenment that encourages early presentation to hospital. Majority of the confirmed cases were primary cases, hence efforts should be intensified in breaking the chain of transmission in the animal-man interphase. Death of healthcare workers involved in management of Lassa fever raises the importance of providing life insurance for concerned healthcare workers.