Principal component analysis on twenty years (2000-2020) of geochemical and geophysical observations at Campi Flegrei active caldera.

Campi Flegrei (CF) is an active and densely populated caldera in Southern Italy, which has manifested signs of significant unrest in the last 50 years. Due to the high volcanic risk, monitoring networks of the most sensitive unrest indicators have been implemented and improved over time. Precious database constituted by geophysical and geochemical data allowed the study of the caldera unrest phases. In this paper we retrace the caldera history in the time span 2000-2020 by analyzing displacement, seismicity and geochemical time series in a unified framework. To this end, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was firstly applied only on geochemical data because of their compositional nature. The retrieved first three components were successively analyzed via PCA together with the geophysical and thermodynamical variables. Our results suggest that three independent processes relay on geochemical observations: a heating/pressurizing of the hydrothermal system, a process related to magmatic fluids injection at the hydrothermal system roots, and third process probably connected with a deeper magmatic dynamic. The actual volcano alert state seems mainly linked to the variation of the hydrothermal system activity. Our approach made it possible to explore the interrelation among observations of different nature highlighting the importance of the relative driving processes over time.

The seismicity of Campi Flegrei in the contest of an evolving long term unrest.

One of the most effective approaches to identifying possible precursors of eruptions is the analysis of seismicity patterns recorded at volcanoes. Accurate locations of the seismicity and the estimate of source mechanisms can resolve fault systems and track fluid migrations through volcanoes. We analysed the six main swarms recorded at Campi Flegrei since 2000, using them as a proxy of the processes involved in the long-term-unrest of this densely populated caldera. We re-located the earthquakes comprised in these swarms and estimated the focal mechanisms, which appear in agreement with the fault systems of the caldera and with tomographic images. The focal mechanisms are in agreement with the tensional stress induced by the caldera uplift. Most of the swarms and remaining seismicity delineate a highly fractured volume extending vertically below the Solfatara/Pisciarelli vents, where gases find preferential paths to the surface triggering earthquakes. The main swarms are located below this volume where the presence of a rigid caprock is still debated. We interpreted the current unrest in term of a gradual increment in the activity of a wide hydrothermal system whose most evident manifestation is the enlargement of the fumarolic-field of Pisciarelli and the increment of the earthquakes occurrence rate.

Increment in the volcanic unrest and number of eruptions after the 2012 large earthquakes sequence in Central America.

Understanding the relationship cause/effect between tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is a striking topic in Earth Sciences. Volcanoes erupt with variable reaction times as a consequence of the impact of seismic waves (i.e. dynamic stress) and changes in the stress field (i.e. static stress). In 2012, three large (Mw ≥ 7.3) subduction earthquakes struck Central America within a period of 10 weeks; subsequently, some volcanoes in the region erupted a few days after, while others took months or even years to erupt. Here, we show that these three earthquakes contributed to the increase in the number of volcanic eruptions during the 7 years that followed these seismic events. We found that only those volcanoes that were already in a critical state of unrest eventually erupted, which indicates that the earthquakes only prompted the eruptions. Therefore, we recommend the permanent monitoring of active volcanoes to reveal which are more susceptible to culminate into eruption in the aftermath of the next large-magnitude earthquake hits a region.

Deep versus shallow sources of CO2 and Rn from a multi-parametric approach: the case of the Nisyros caldera (Aegean Arc, Greece).

Estimating the quantity of CO2 diffusively emitted from the Earth's surface has important implications for volcanic surveillance and global atmospheric CO2 budgets. However, the identification and quantification of non-hydrothermal contributions to CO2 release can be ambiguous. Here, we describe a multi-parametric approach employed at the Nisyros caldera, Aegean Arc, Greece, to assess the relative influence of deep and shallow gases released from the soil. In April 2019, we measured diffuse soil surface CO2 fluxes, together with their carbon isotope compositions, and at a depth of 80 cm, the CO2 concentration, soil temperature, and the activities of radon and thoron. The contributions of deep CO2 and biogenic CO2 fluxes were distinguished on the basis of their carbon isotope compositions. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA), performed on the measured parameters, effectively discriminates between a deep- and a shallow degassing component. The total CO2 output estimated from a relatively small testing area was two times higher with respect to that observed in a previous survey (October 2018). The difference is ascribed to variation in the soil biogenic CO2 production, that was high in April 2019 (a wet period) and low or absent in October 2018 (a dry period). Accounting for seasonal biogenic activity is therefore critical in monitoring and quantifying CO2 emissions in volcanic areas, because they can partially- or completely overwhelm the volcanic-hydrothermal signal.

The emissions of CO2 and other volatiles from the world's subaerial volcanoes.

Volcanoes are the main pathway to the surface for volatiles that are stored within the Earth. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is of particular interest because of its potential for climate forcing. Understanding the balance of CO2 that is transferred from the Earth's surface to the Earth's interior, hinges on accurate quantification of the long-term emissions of volcanic CO2 to the atmosphere. Here we present an updated evaluation of the world's volcanic CO2 emissions that takes advantage of recent improvements in satellite-based monitoring of sulfur dioxide, the establishment of ground-based networks for semi-continuous CO2-SO2 gas sensing and a new approach to estimate key volcanic gas parameters based on magma compositions. Our results reveal a global volcanic CO2 flux of 51.3 ± 5.7 Tg CO2/y (11.7 × 1011 mol CO2/y) for non-eruptive degassing and 1.8 ± 0.9 Tg/y for eruptive degassing during the period from 2005 to 2015. While lower than recent estimates, this global volcanic flux implies that a significant proportion of the surface-derived CO2 subducted into the Earth's mantle is either stored below the arc crust, is efficiently consumed by microbial activity before entering the deeper parts of the subduction system, or becomes recycled into the deep mantle to potentially form diamonds.

Global-scale control of extensional tectonics on CO2 earth degassing.

Earth degassing of CO2-rich fluids has been proven to contribute significantly to the global carbon budget. The presence of ubiquitous outgassing reveals some degree of permeability of the crust that often coincides with seismically active zones. In this study, we took advantage of the most recent global geological datasets to better understand earth degassing and how it correlates with tectonic regimes. Here we use an ad hoc point pattern analysis to show that there is a spatial correlation between CO2 discharges and the presence of active fault systems, in particular with those characterized by a normal slip type. Seismic data demonstrate the existence of a positive spatial correlation between gas discharges and extensional tectonic regimes and confirms that such processes would play a key role in creating pathways for the rising gases at micro- and macro-scales, increasing the rock permeability and connecting the deep crust to the earth surface.

Anatomy of a fumarolic system inferred from a multiphysics approach.

Fumaroles are a common manifestation of volcanic activity that are associated with large emissions of gases into the atmosphere. These gases originate from the magma, and they can provide indirect and unique insights into magmatic processes. Therefore, they are extensively used to monitor and forecast eruptive activity. During their ascent, the magmatic gases interact with the rock and hydrothermal fluids, which modify their geochemical compositions. These interactions can complicate our understanding of the real volcanic dynamics and remain poorly considered. Here, we present the first complete imagery of a fumarolic plumbing system using three-dimensional electrical resistivity tomography and new acoustic noise localization. We delineate a gas reservoir that feeds the fumaroles through distinct channels. Based on this geometry, a thermodynamic model reveals that near-surface mixing between gas and condensed steam explains the distinct geochemical compositions of fumaroles that originate from the same source. Such modeling of fluid interactions will allow for the simulation of dynamic processes of magmatic degassing, which is crucial to the monitoring of volcanic unrest.

Seismic signature of active intrusions in mountain chains.

Intrusions are a ubiquitous component of mountain chains and testify to the emplacement of magma at depth. Understanding the emplacement and growth mechanisms of intrusions, such as diapiric or dike-like ascent, is critical to constrain the evolution and structure of the crust. Petrological and geological data allow us to reconstruct magma pathways and long-term magma differentiation and assembly processes. However, our ability to detect and reconstruct the short-term dynamics related to active intrusive episodes in mountain chains is embryonic, lacking recognized geophysical signals. We analyze an anomalously deep seismic sequence (maximum magnitude 5) characterized by low-frequency bursts of earthquakes that occurred in 2013 in the Apennine chain in Italy. We provide seismic evidences of fluid involvement in the earthquake nucleation process and identify a thermal anomaly in aquifers where CO2 of magmatic origin dissolves. We show that the intrusion of dike-like bodies in mountain chains may trigger earthquakes with magnitudes that may be relevant to seismic hazard assessment. These findings provide a new perspective on the emplacement mechanisms of intrusive bodies and the interpretation of the seismicity in mountain chains.

Source and dynamics of a volcanic caldera unrest: Campi Flegrei, 1983-84.

Despite their importance for eruption forecasting the causes of seismic rupture processes during caldera unrest are still poorly reconstructed from seismic images. Seismic source locations and waveform attenuation analyses of earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei area (Southern Italy) during the 1983-1984 unrest have revealed a 4-4.5 km deep NW-SE striking aseismic zone of high attenuation offshore Pozzuoli. The lateral features and the principal axis of the attenuation anomaly correspond to the main source of ground uplift during the unrest. Seismic swarms correlate in space and time with fluid injections from a deep hot source, inferred to represent geochemical and temperature variations at Solfatara. These swarms struck a high-attenuation 3-4 km deep reservoir of supercritical fluids under Pozzuoli and migrated towards a shallower aseismic deformation source under Solfatara. The reservoir became aseismic for two months just after the main seismic swarm (April 1, 1984) due to a SE-to-NW directed input from the high-attenuation domain, possibly a dyke emplacement. The unrest ended after fluids migrated from Pozzuoli to the location of the last caldera eruption (Mt. Nuovo, 1538 AD). The results show that the high attenuation domain controls the largest monitored seismic, deformation, and geochemical unrest at the caldera.

Magmas near the critical degassing pressure drive volcanic unrest towards a critical state.

During the reawaking of a volcano, magmas migrating through the shallow crust have to pass through hydrothermal fluids and rocks. The resulting magma-hydrothermal interactions are still poorly understood, which impairs the ability to interpret volcano monitoring signals and perform hazard assessments. Here we use the results of physical and volatile saturation models to demonstrate that magmatic volatiles released by decompressing magmas at a critical degassing pressure (CDP) can drive volcanic unrest towards a critical state. We show that, at the CDP, the abrupt and voluminous release of H2O-rich magmatic gases can heat hydrothermal fluids and rocks, triggering an accelerating deformation that can ultimately culminate in rock failure and eruption. We propose that magma could be approaching the CDP at Campi Flegrei, a volcano in the metropolitan area of Naples, one of the most densely inhabited areas in the world, and where accelerating deformation and heating are currently being observed.

Seafloor doming driven by degassing processes unveils sprouting volcanism in coastal areas.

We report evidences of active seabed doming and gas discharge few kilometers offshore from the Naples harbor (Italy). Pockmarks, mounds, and craters characterize the seabed. These morphologies represent the top of shallow crustal structures including pagodas, faults and folds affecting the present-day seabed. They record upraise, pressurization, and release of He and CO2 from mantle melts and decarbonation reactions of crustal rocks. These gases are likely similar to those that feed the hydrothermal systems of the Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvius active volcanoes, suggesting the occurrence of a mantle source variously mixed to crustal fluids beneath the Gulf of Naples. The seafloor swelling and breaching by gas upraising and pressurization processes require overpressures in the order of 2-3 MPa. Seabed doming, faulting, and gas discharge are manifestations of non-volcanic unrests potentially preluding submarine eruptions and/or hydrothermal explosions.

New ground-based lidar enables volcanic CO2 flux measurements.

There have been substantial advances in the ability to monitor the activity of hazardous volcanoes in recent decades. However, obtaining early warning of eruptions remains challenging, because the patterns and consequences of volcanic unrests are both complex and nonlinear. Measuring volcanic gases has long been a key aspect of volcano monitoring since these mobile fluids should reach the surface long before the magma. There has been considerable progress in methods for remote and in-situ gas sensing, but measuring the flux of volcanic CO2-the most reliable gas precursor to an eruption-has remained a challenge. Here we report on the first direct quantitative measurements of the volcanic CO2 flux using a newly designed differential absorption lidar (DIAL), which were performed at the restless Campi Flegrei volcano. We show that DIAL makes it possible to remotely obtain volcanic CO2 flux time series with a high temporal resolution (tens of minutes) and accuracy (<30%). The ability of this lidar to remotely sense volcanic CO2 represents a major step forward in volcano monitoring, and will contribute improved volcanic CO2 flux inventories. Our results also demonstrate the unusually strong degassing behavior of Campi Flegrei fumaroles in the current ongoing state of unrest.

Geosphere-biosphere interactions in bio-activity volcanic lakes: evidences from Hule and Rìo Cuarto (Costa Rica).

Hule and Río Cuarto are maar lakes located 11 and 18 km N of Poás volcano along a 27 km long fracture zone, in the Central Volcanic Range of Costa Rica. Both lakes are characterized by a stable thermic and chemical stratification and recently they were affected by fish killing events likely related to the uprising of deep anoxic waters to the surface caused by rollover phenomena. The vertical profiles of temperature, pH, redox potential, chemical and isotopic compositions of water and dissolved gases, as well as prokaryotic diversity estimated by DNA fingerprinting and massive 16S rRNA pyrosequencing along the water column of the two lakes, have highlighted that different bio-geochemical processes occur in these meromictic lakes. Although the two lakes host different bacterial and archaeal phylogenetic groups, water and gas chemistry in both lakes is controlled by the same prokaryotic functions, especially regarding the CO2-CH4 cycle. Addition of hydrothermal CO2 through the bottom of the lakes plays a fundamental priming role in developing a stable water stratification and fuelling anoxic bacterial and archaeal populations. Methanogens and methane oxidizers as well as autotrophic and heterotrophic aerobic bacteria responsible of organic carbon recycling resulted to be stratified with depth and strictly related to the chemical-physical conditions and availability of free oxygen, affecting both the CO2 and CH4 chemical concentrations and their isotopic compositions along the water column. Hule and Río Cuarto lakes were demonstrated to contain a CO2 (CH4, N2)-rich gas reservoir mainly controlled by the interactions occurring between geosphere and biosphere. Thus, we introduced the term of bio-activity volcanic lakes to distinguish these lakes, which have analogues worldwide (e.g. Kivu: D.R.C.-Rwanda; Albano, Monticchio and Averno: Italy; Pavin: France) from volcanic lakes only characterized by geogenic CO2 reservoir such as Nyos and Monoun (Cameroon).