Clinical reappraisal of the composite international diagnostic interview version 3.3 in Qatar's National Mental Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: Lifetime DSM-5 diagnoses generated by the lay-administered Composite International Diagnostic Interview for DSM-5 (CIDI) in the World Mental Health Qatar (WMHQ) study were compared to diagnoses based on blinded clinician-administered reappraisal interviews. METHODS: Telephone follow-up interviews used the non-patient edition of the Structured Clinician Interview for DSM-5 (SCID) oversampling respondents who screened positive for five diagnoses in the CIDI: major depressive episode, mania/hypomania, panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Concordance was also examined for a diagnoses of post-traumatic stress disorder based on a short-form versus full version of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). RESULTS: Initial CIDI prevalence estimates differed significantly from the SCID for most diagnoses ( χ 1 2 ${\chi }_{1}^{2}$  = 6.6-31.4, p = 0.010 < 0.001), but recalibration reduced most of these differences and led to consistent increases in individual-level concordance (AU-ROC) from 0.53-0.76 to 0.67-0.81. Recalibration of the short-form PCL-5 removed an initially significant difference in PTSD prevalence with the full PCL-5 (from χ 1 2 ${\chi }_{1}^{2}$  = 610.5, p < 0.001 to χ 1 2 ${\chi }_{1}^{2}$  = 2.5, p = 0.110) while also increasing AU-ROC from 0.76 to 0.81. CONCLUSIONS: Recalibration resulted in valid diagnoses of common mental disorders in the Qatar National Mental Health Survey, but with inflated prevalence estimates for some disorders that need to be considered when interpreting results.

Age of onset and cumulative risk of mental disorders: a cross-national analysis of population surveys from 29 countries.

BACKGROUND: Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk. METHODS: In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account. FINDINGS: We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54·5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45·4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28·6% (95% CI 27·9-29·2) for male respondents and 29·8% (29·2-30·3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46·4% (44·9-47·8) for male respondents and 53·1% (51·9-54·3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14-32) for male respondents and 20 years (12-36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents. INTERPRETATION: By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course. FUNDING: None.

Findings From the World Mental Health Surveys of Civil Violence Exposure and Its Association With Subsequent Onset and Persistence of Mental Disorders.

Importance: Understanding the association of civil violence with mental disorders is important for developing effective postconflict recovery policies. Objective: To estimate the association between exposure to civil violence and the subsequent onset and persistence of common mental disorders (in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition [DSM-IV]) in representative surveys of civilians from countries that have experienced civil violence since World War II. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used data from cross-sectional World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) surveys administered to households between February 5, 2001, and January 5, 2022, in 7 countries that experienced periods of civil violence after World War II (Argentina, Colombia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Northern Ireland, Peru, and South Africa). Data from respondents in other WMH surveys who immigrated from countries with civil violence in Africa and Latin America were also included. Representative samples comprised adults (aged ≥18 years) from eligible countries. Data analysis was performed from February 10 to 13, 2023. Exposures: Exposure was defined as a self-report of having been a civilian in a war zone or region of terror. Related stressors (being displaced, witnessing atrocities, or being a combatant) were also assessed. Exposures occurred a median of 21 (IQR, 12-30) years before the interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the retrospectively reported lifetime prevalence and 12-month persistence (estimated by calculating 12-month prevalence among lifetime cases) of DSM-IV anxiety, mood, and externalizing (alcohol use, illicit drug use, or intermittent explosive) disorders. Results: This study included 18 212 respondents from 7 countries. Of these individuals, 2096 reported that they were exposed to civil violence (56.5% were men; median age, 40 [IQR, 30-52] years) and 16 116 were not exposed (45.2% were men; median age, 35 [IQR, 26-48] years). Respondents who reported being exposed to civil violence had a significantly elevated onset risk of anxiety (risk ratio [RR], 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1]), mood (RR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.3-1.7]), and externalizing (RR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]) disorders. Combatants additionally had a significantly elevated onset risk of anxiety disorders (RR, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.3-3.1]) and refugees had an increased onset risk of mood (RR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.1-2.0]) and externalizing (RR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0-2.4]) disorders. Elevated disorder onset risks persisted for more than 2 decades if conflicts persisted but not after either termination of hostilities or emigration. Persistence (ie, 12-month prevalence among respondents with lifetime prevalence of the disorder), in comparison, was generally not associated with exposure. Conclusions: In this survey study of exposure to civil violence, exposure was associated with an elevated risk of mental disorders among civilians for many years after initial exposure. These findings suggest that policy makers should recognize these associations when projecting future mental disorder treatment needs in countries experiencing civil violence and among affected migrants.

Non-suicidal self-injury among first-year college students and its association with mental disorders: results from the World Mental Health International College Student (WMH-ICS) initiative.

BACKGROUND: Although non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is an issue of major concern to colleges worldwide, we lack detailed information about the epidemiology of NSSI among college students. The objectives of this study were to present the first cross-national data on the prevalence of NSSI and NSSI disorder among first-year college students and its association with mental disorders. METHODS: Data come from a survey of the entering class in 24 colleges across nine countries participating in the World Mental Health International College Student (WMH-ICS) initiative assessed in web-based self-report surveys (20 842 first-year students). Using retrospective age-of-onset reports, we investigated time-ordered associations between NSSI and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-IV) mood (major depressive and bipolar disorder), anxiety (generalized anxiety and panic disorder), and substance use disorders (alcohol and drug use disorder). RESULTS: NSSI lifetime and 12-month prevalence were 17.7% and 8.4%. A positive screen of 12-month DSM-5 NSSI disorder was 2.3%. Of those with lifetime NSSI, 59.6% met the criteria for at least one mental disorder. Temporally primary lifetime mental disorders predicted subsequent onset of NSSI [median odds ratio (OR) 2.4], but these primary lifetime disorders did not consistently predict 12-month NSSI among respondents with lifetime NSSI. Conversely, even after controlling for pre-existing mental disorders, NSSI consistently predicted later onset of mental disorders (median OR 1.8) as well as 12-month persistence of mental disorders among students with a generalized anxiety disorder (OR 1.6) and bipolar disorder (OR 4.6). CONCLUSIONS: NSSI is common among first-year college students and is a behavioral marker of various common mental disorders.

Patterns and correlates of patient-reported helpfulness of treatment for common mental and substance use disorders in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

Patient-reported helpfulness of treatment is an important indicator of quality in patient-centered care. We examined its pathways and predictors among respondents to household surveys who reported ever receiving treatment for major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, specific phobia, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, or alcohol use disorder. Data came from 30 community epidemiological surveys - 17 in high-income countries (HICs) and 13 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) - carried out as part of the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Respondents were asked whether treatment of each disorder was ever helpful and, if so, the number of professionals seen before receiving helpful treatment. Across all surveys and diagnostic categories, 26.1% of patients (N=10,035) reported being helped by the very first professional they saw. Persisting to a second professional after a first unhelpful treatment brought the cumulative probability of receiving helpful treatment to 51.2%. If patients persisted with up through eight professionals, the cumulative probability rose to 90.6%. However, only an estimated 22.8% of patients would have persisted in seeing these many professionals after repeatedly receiving treatments they considered not helpful. Although the proportion of individuals with disorders who sought treatment was higher and they were more persistent in HICs than LMICs, proportional helpfulness among treated cases was no different between HICs and LMICs. A wide range of predictors of perceived treatment helpfulness were found, some of them consistent across diagnostic categories and others unique to specific disorders. These results provide novel information about patient evaluations of treatment across diagnoses and countries varying in income level, and suggest that a critical issue in improving the quality of care for mental disorders should be fostering persistence in professional help-seeking if earlier treatments are not helpful.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for social anxiety disorder: findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence and predictors of perceived helpfulness of treatment in persons with a history of DSM-IV social anxiety disorder (SAD), using a worldwide population-based sample. METHODS: The World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys is a coordinated series of community epidemiological surveys of non-institutionalized adults; 27 surveys in 24 countries (16 in high-income; 11 in low/middle-income countries; N = 117,856) included people with a lifetime history of treated SAD. RESULTS: In respondents with lifetime SAD, approximately one in five ever obtained treatment. Among these (n = 1322), cumulative probability of receiving treatment they regarded as helpful after seeing up to seven professionals was 92.2%. However, only 30.2% persisted this long, resulting in 65.1% ever receiving treatment perceived as helpful. Perceiving treatment as helpful was more common in female respondents, those currently married, more highly educated, and treated in non-formal health-care settings. Persistence in seeking treatment for SAD was higher among those with shorter delays in seeking treatment, in those receiving medication from a mental health specialist, and those with more than two lifetime anxiety disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of individuals with SAD do not receive any treatment. Among those who do, the probability that people treated for SAD obtain treatment they consider helpful increases considerably if they persisted in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatments.

Changes in Prevalence of Mental Illness Among US Adults During Compared with Before the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The authors review trend and cohort surveys and administrative data comparing prevalence of mental disorders during, versus, and before the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in mental health disparities. Best evidence suggests clinically significant anxiety-depression point prevalence increased by relative-risk (RR) = 1.3 to 1.5 during the pandemic compared with before. This level of increase is much less than the implausibly high RR = 5.0 to 8.0 estimates reported in trend studies early in the pandemic based on less-appropriate comparisons. Changes in prevalence also occurred during the pandemic, but relative prevalence appears not to have changed substantially over this time.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for alcohol use disorders: Findings from the World Mental Health Surveys.

AIM: We examined prevalence and factors associated with receiving perceived helpful alcohol use disorder (AUD) treatment, and persistence in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatment. METHODS: Data came from 27 community epidemiologic surveys of adults in 24 countries using the World Health Organization World Mental Health surveys (n = 93,843). Participants with a lifetime history of treated AUD were asked if they ever received helpful AUD treatment, and how many professionals they had talked to up to and including the first time they received helpful treatment (or how many ever, if they had not received helpful treatment). RESULTS: 11.8% of respondents with lifetime AUD reported ever obtaining treatment (n = 9378); of these, 44% reported that treatment was helpful. The probability of obtaining helpful treatment from the first professional seen was 21.8%; the conditional probability of subsequent professionals being helpful after earlier unhelpful treatment tended to decrease as more professionals were seen. The cumulative probability of receiving helpful treatment at least once increased from 21.8% after the first professional to 79.7% after the seventh professional seen, following earlier unhelpful treatment. However, the cumulative probability of persisting with up to seven professionals in the face of prior treatments being unhelpful was only 13.2%. CONCLUSION: Fewer than half of people with AUDs who sought treatment found treatment helpful; the most important factor was persistence in seeking further treatment if a previous professional had not helped. Future research should examine how to increase the likelihood that AUD treatment is found to be helpful on any given contact.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for generalized anxiety disorder: a World Mental Health Surveys report.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) are based on a relatively small number of randomized controlled trials and do not consider patient-centered perceptions of treatment helpfulness. We investigated the prevalence and predictors of patient-reported treatment helpfulness for DSM-5 GAD and its two main treatment pathways: encounter-level treatment helpfulness and persistence in help-seeking after prior unhelpful treatment. METHODS: Data came from community epidemiologic surveys in 23 countries in the WHO World Mental Health surveys. DSM-5 GAD was assessed with the fully structured WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview Version 3.0. Respondents with a history of GAD were asked whether they ever received treatment and, if so, whether they ever considered this treatment helpful. Number of professionals seen before obtaining helpful treatment was also assessed. Parallel survival models estimated probability and predictors of a given treatment being perceived as helpful and of persisting in help-seeking after prior unhelpful treatment. RESULTS: The overall prevalence rate of GAD was 4.5%, with lower prevalence in low/middle-income countries (2.8%) than high-income countries (5.3%); 34.6% of respondents with lifetime GAD reported ever obtaining treatment for their GAD, with lower proportions in low/middle-income countries (19.2%) than high-income countries (38.4%); 3) 70% of those who received treatment perceived the treatment to be helpful, with prevalence comparable in low/middle-income countries and high-income countries. Survival analysis suggested that virtually all patients would have obtained helpful treatment if they had persisted in help-seeking with up to 10 professionals. However, we estimated that only 29.7% of patients would have persisted that long. Obtaining helpful treatment at the person-level was associated with treatment type, comorbid panic/agoraphobia, and childhood adversities, but most of these predictors were important because they predicted persistence rather than encounter-level treatment helpfulness. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of individuals with GAD do not receive treatment. Most of those who receive treatment regard it as helpful, but receiving helpful treatment typically requires persistence in help-seeking. Future research should focus on ensuring that helpfulness is included as part of the evaluation. Clinicians need to emphasize the importance of persistence to patients beginning treatment.

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for specific phobia: Findings from the World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Although randomized trials show that specific phobia treatments can be effective, it is unclear whether patients experience treatment as helpful in clinical practice. We investigated this issue by assessing perceived treatment helpfulness for specific phobia in a cross-national epidemiological survey. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys in 24 countries (n=112,507) assessed lifetime specific phobia. Respondents who met lifetime criteria were asked whether they ever received treatment they considered helpful and the number of professionals seen up to the time of receiving helpful treatment. Discrete-event survival analysis was used to calculate conditional-cumulative probabilities of obtaining helpful treatment across number of professionals seen and of persisting in help-seeking after prior unhelpful treatment. RESULTS: 23.0% of respondents reported receiving helpful treatment from the first professional seen, whereas cumulative probability of receiving helpful treatment was 85.7% after seeing up to 9 professionals. However, only 14.7% of patients persisted in seeing up to 9 professionals, resulting in the proportion of patients ever receiving helpful treatment (47.5%) being much lower than it could have been with persistence in help-seeking. Few predictors were found either of perceived helpfulness or of persistence in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatments. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective recall and lack of information about either types of treatments received or objective symptomatic improvements limit results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite these limitations, results suggest that helpfulness of specific phobia treatment could be increased, perhaps substantially, by increasing patient persistence in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful treatments. Improved understanding is needed of barriers to help-seeking persistence.

Perceived helpfulness of bipolar disorder treatment: Findings from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To examine patterns and predictors of perceived treatment helpfulness for mania/hypomania and associated depression in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews with community samples across 15 countries found n = 2,178 who received lifetime mania/hypomania treatment and n = 624 with lifetime mania/hypomania who received lifetime major depression treatment. These respondents were asked whether treatment was ever helpful and, if so, the number of professionals seen before receiving helpful treatment. Patterns and predictors of treatment helpfulness were examined separately for mania/hypomania and depression. RESULTS: 63.1% (mania/hypomania) and 65.1% (depression) of patients reported ever receiving helpful treatment. However, only 24.5-22.5% were helped by the first professional seen, which means that the others needed to persist in help seeking after initial unhelpful treatments in order to find helpful treatment. Projections find only 22.9% (mania/hypomania) and 43.3% (depression) would persist through a series of unhelpful treatments but that the proportion helped would increase substantially if persistence increased. Few patient-level significant predictors of helpful treatment emerged and none consistently either across the two components (i.e., provider-level helpfulness and persistence after earlier unhelpful treatment) or for both mania/hypomania and depression. Although prevalence of treatment was higher in high-income than low/middle-income countries, proportional helpfulness among treated cases was nearly identical in the two groups of countries. CONCLUSIONS: Probability of patients with mania/hypomania and associated depression obtaining helpful treatment might increase substantially if persistence in help-seeking increased after initially unhelpful treatments, although this could require seeing numerous additional treatment providers. In addition to investigating reasons for initial treatments not being helpful, messages reinforcing the importance of persistence should be emphasized to patients.

Findings From World Mental Health Surveys of the Perceived Helpfulness of Treatment for Patients With Major Depressive Disorder.

Importance: The perceived helpfulness of treatment is an important patient-centered measure that is a joint function of whether treatment professionals are perceived as helpful and whether patients persist in help-seeking after previous unhelpful treatments. Objective: To examine the prevalence and factors associated with the 2 main components of perceived helpfulness of treatment in a representative sample of individuals with a lifetime history of DSM-IV major depressive disorder (MDD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined the results of a coordinated series of community epidemiologic surveys of noninstitutionalized adults using the World Health Organization World Mental Health surveys. Seventeen surveys were conducted in 16 countries (8 surveys in high-income countries and 9 in low- and middle-income countries). The dates of data collection ranged from 2002 to 2003 (Lebanon) to 2016 to 2017 (Bulgaria). Participants included those with a lifetime history of treated MDD. Data analyses were conducted from April 2019 to January 2020. Data on socioeconomic characteristics, lifetime comorbid conditions (eg, anxiety and substance use disorders), treatment type, treatment timing, and country income level were collected. Main Outcomes and Measures: Conditional probabilities of helpful treatment after seeing between 1 and 5 professionals; persistence in help-seeking after between 1 and 4 unhelpful treatments; and ever obtaining helpful treatment regardless of number of professionals seen. Results: Survey response rates ranged from 50.4% (Poland) to 97.2% (Medellín, Columbia), with a pooled response rate of 68.3% (n = 117 616) across surveys. Mean (SE) age at first depression treatment was 34.8 (0.3) years, and 69.4% were female. Of 2726 people with a lifetime history of treatment of MDD, the cumulative probability (SE) of all respondents pooled across countries of helpful treatment after seeing up to 10 professionals was 93.9% (1.2%), but only 21.5% (3.2%) of patients persisted that long (ie, beyond 9 unhelpful treatments), resulting in 68.2% (1.1%) of patients ever receiving treatment that they perceived as helpful. The probability of perceiving treatment as helpful increased in association with 4 factors: older age at initiating treatment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), higher educational level (low: AOR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33-0.70; low-average: AOR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44-0.89; high average: AOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49-0.91 vs high educational level), shorter delay in initiating treatment after first onset (AOR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99), and medication received from a mental health specialist (AOR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.04-4.15). Decomposition analysis showed that the first 2 of these 4 factors were associated with only the conditional probability of an individual treatment professional being perceived as helpful (age at first depression treatment: AOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02; educational level: low: AOR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33-0.70; low-average: AOR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44-0.89; high-average: AOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49-0.91 vs high educational level), whereas the latter 2 factors were associated with only persistence (treatment delay: AOR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99; treatment type: AOR, 3.43; 95% CI, 2.51-4.70). Conclusions and Relevance: The probability that patients with MDD obtain treatment that they consider helpful might increase, perhaps markedly, if they persisted in help-seeking after unhelpful treatments with up to 9 prior professionals.

Pre-marital predictors of marital violence in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys.

PURPOSE: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a pervasive public health problem. Existing research has focused on reports from victims and few studies have considered pre-marital factors. The main objective of this study was to identify pre-marital predictors of IPV in the current marriage using information obtained from husbands and wives. METHODS: Data from were obtained from married heterosexual couples in six countries. Potential predictors included demographic and relationship characteristics, adverse childhood experiences, dating violence, and psychiatric disorders. Reports of IPV and other characteristics from husbands and wives were considered independently and in relation to spousal reports. RESULTS: Overall, 14.4% of women were victims of IPV in the current marriage. Analyses identified ten significant variables including age at first marriage (husband), education, relative number of previous marriages (wife), history of one or more categories of childhood adversity (husband or wife), history of dating violence (husband or wife), early initiation of sexual intercourse (husband or wife), and four combinations of internalizing and externalizing disorders. The final model was moderately predictive of marital violence, with the 5% of women accounting for 18.6% of all cases of marital IPV. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study advance understanding of pre-marital predictors of IPV within current marriages, including the importance of considering differences in the experiences of partners prior to marriage and may provide a foundation for more targeted primary prevention efforts.

Predeployment predictors of psychiatric disorder-symptoms and interpersonal violence during combat deployment.

BACKGROUND: Preventing suicides, mental disorders, and noncombat-related interpersonal violence during deployment are priorities of the US Army. We used predeployment survey and administrative data to develop actuarial models to identify soldiers at high risk of these outcomes during combat deployment. METHODS: The models were developed in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) Pre-Post Deployment Study, a panel study of soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2012-2013. Soldiers completed self-administered questionnaires before deployment and one (T1), three (T2), and nine months (T3) after deployment, and consented to administrative data linkage. Seven during-deployment outcomes were operationalized using the postdeployment surveys. Two overlapping samples were used because some outcomes were assessed at T1 (n = 7,048) and others at T2-T3 (n = 7,081). Ensemble machine learning was used to develop a model for each outcome from 273 predeployment predictors, which were compared to simple logistic regression models. RESULTS: The relative improvement in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) obtained by machine learning compared to the logistic models ranged from 1.11 (major depression) to 1.83 (suicidality).The best-performing machine learning models were for major depression (AUC = 0.88), suicidality (0.86), and generalized anxiety disorder (0.85). Roughly 40% of these outcomes occurred among the 5% of soldiers with highest predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: Actuarial models could be used to identify high risk soldiers either for exclusion from deployment or preventive interventions. However, the ultimate value of this approach depends on the associated costs, competing risks (e.g. stigma), and the effectiveness to-be-determined interventions.

Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

BACKGROUND: High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. METHODS: The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. RESULTS: The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey predictors, a 67.9% proportional increase in prediction accuracy. Other proportional increases in concentration of risk ranged from 4.8% to 49.5% (median = 26.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Data from an ongoing New Soldier Survey could substantially improve accuracy of risk models compared to models based exclusively on administrative predictors. Depending upon the characteristics of interventions used, the increase in targeting accuracy from survey data might offset survey administration costs.

Sexual Assault Victimization and Mental Health Treatment, Suicide Attempts, and Career Outcomes Among Women in the US Army.

OBJECTIVES: To examine associations of administratively recorded sexual assault victimization during military service with subsequent mental health and negative career outcomes among US Army women controlling for nonrandom victimization exposure. METHODS: We used data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers to apply propensity score methods to match all 4238 female Regular Army soldiers with administratively recorded sexual assault victimization during 2004 to 2009 to 5 controls per case with similar composite victimization risk. We examined associations of this victimization measure with administratively recorded mental health treatment, suicide attempt, and Army career outcomes over the subsequent 12 months by using survival analysis for dichotomous outcomes and conditional generalized linear models for continuous outcomes. RESULTS: Women with administratively recorded sexual assault had significantly elevated odds ratios (ORs) of subsequent mental health treatment (any, OR = 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4, 2.6; specialty, OR = 3.1; 95% CI = 2.9, 3.3; inpatient, OR = 2.8; 95% CI = 2.5, 3.1), posttraumatic stress disorder treatment (any, OR = 6.3; 95% CI = 5.7, 6.9; specialty, OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 6.8, 8.6; inpatient, OR = 6.8; 95% CI = 5.4, 8.6), suicide attempt (OR = 3.0; 95% CI = 2.5, 3.6), demotion (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.9, 2.3), and attrition (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.2). CONCLUSIONS: Sexual assault victimization is associated with considerable suffering and likely decreased force readiness.

A Cross-National Examination of Differences in Classification of Lifetime Alcohol Use Disorder Between DSM-IV and DSM-5: Findings from the World Mental Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: The current study sought to examine the diagnostic overlap in DSM-IV and DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) and determine the clinical correlates of changing diagnostic status across the 2 classification systems. METHODS: DSM-IV and DSM-5 definitions of AUD were compared using cross-national community survey data in 9 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Participants were 31,367 respondents to surveys in the World Health Organization's World Mental Health Survey Initiative. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 3.0, was used to derive DSM-IV and DSM-5 lifetime diagnoses of AUD. Clinical characteristics, also assessed in the surveys, included lifetime DSM-IV anxiety; mood and drug use disorders; lifetime suicidal ideation, plan, and attempt; general functional impairment; and psychological distress. RESULTS: Compared with DSM-IV AUD (12.3%, SE = 0.3%), the DSM-5 definition yielded slightly lower prevalence estimates (10.8%, SE = 0.2%). Almost one-third (n = 802) of all DSM-IV abuse cases switched to subthreshold according to DSM-5 and one-quarter (n = 467) of all DSM-IV diagnostic orphans switched to mild AUD according to DSM-5. New cases of DSM-5 AUD were largely similar to those who maintained their AUD across both classifications. Similarly, new DSM-5 noncases were similar to those who were subthreshold across both classifications. The exception to this was with regard to the prevalence of any lifetime drug use disorder. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cross-national community sample, the prevalence of DSM-5 lifetime AUD was only slightly lower than the prevalence of DSM-IV lifetime AUD. Nonetheless, there was considerable diagnostic switching, with a large number of people inconsistently identified across the 2 DSM classifications.

The Bidirectional Associations Between Psychotic Experiences and DSM-IV Mental Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: While it is now recognized that psychotic experiences are associated with an increased risk of later mental disorders, we lack a detailed understanding of the reciprocal time-lagged relationships between first onsets of psychotic experiences and mental disorders. Using data from World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys, the authors assessed the bidirectional temporal associations between psychotic experiences and mental disorders. METHOD: The WMH Surveys assessed lifetime prevalence and age at onset of psychotic experiences and 21 common DSM-IV mental disorders among 31,261 adult respondents from 18 countries. Discrete-time survival models were used to examine bivariate and multivariate associations between psychotic experiences and mental disorders. RESULTS: Temporally primary psychotic experiences were significantly associated with subsequent first onset of eight of the 21 mental disorders (major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, posttraumatic stress disorder, adult separation anxiety disorder, bulimia nervosa, and alcohol abuse), with odds ratios ranging from 1.3 (95% CI=1.2-1.5) for major depressive disorder to 2.0 (95% CI=1.5-2.6) for bipolar disorder. In contrast, 18 of 21 primary mental disorders were significantly associated with subsequent first onset of psychotic experiences, with odds ratios ranging from 1.5 (95% CI=1.0-2.1) for childhood separation anxiety disorder to 2.8 (95% CI=1.0-7.8) for anorexia nervosa. CONCLUSIONS: While temporally primary psychotic experiences are associated with an elevated risk of several subsequent mental disorders, these data show that most mental disorders are associated with an elevated risk of subsequent psychotic experiences. Further investigation of the underlying factors accounting for these time-order relationships may shed light on the etiology of psychotic experiences.

Psychotic Experiences in the General Population: A Cross-National Analysis Based on 31,261 Respondents From 18 Countries.

IMPORTANCE: Community-based surveys find that many otherwise healthy individuals report histories of hallucinations and delusions. To date, most studies have focused on the overall lifetime prevalence of any of these psychotic experiences (PEs), which might mask important features related to the types and frequencies of PEs. OBJECTIVE: To explore detailed epidemiologic information about PEs in a large multinational sample. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We obtained data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys, a coordinated set of community epidemiologic surveys of the prevalence and correlates of mental disorders in representative household samples from 18 countries throughout the world, from 2001 through 2009. Respondents included 31,261 adults (18 years and older) who were asked about lifetime and 12-month prevalence and frequency of 6 types of PEs (2 hallucinatory experiences and 4 delusional experiences). We analyzed the data from March 2014 through January 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence, frequency, and correlates of PEs. RESULTS: Mean lifetime prevalence (SE) of ever having a PE was 5.8% (0.2%), with hallucinatory experiences (5.2% [0.2%]) much more common than delusional experiences (1.3% [0.1%]). More than two-thirds (72.0%) of respondents with lifetime PEs reported experiencing only 1 type. Psychotic experiences were typically infrequent, with 32.2% of respondents with lifetime PEs reporting only 1 occurrence and 31.8% reporting only 2 to 5 occurrences. We found a significant relationship between having more than 1 type of PE and having more frequent PE episodes (Cochran-Armitage z = -10.0; P < .001). Lifetime prevalence estimates (SEs) were significantly higher among respondents in middle- and high-income countries than among those in low-income countries (7.2% [0.4%], 6.8% [0.3%], and 3.2% [0.3%], respectively; χ²2 range, 7.1-58.2; P < .001 for each) and among women than among men (6.6% [0.2%] vs 5.0% [0.3%]; χ²1 = 16.0; P < .001). We found significant associations with lifetime prevalence of PEs in the multivariate model among nonmarried compared with married respondents (χ²2 = 23.2; P < .001) and among respondents who were not employed (χ²4= 10.6; P < .001) and who had low family incomes (χ²3 = 16.9; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The epidemiologic features of PEs are more nuanced than previously thought. Research is needed that focuses on similarities and differences in the predictors of the onset, course, and consequences of distinct PEs.

Mental Disorders, Comorbidity, and Pre-enlistment Suicidal Behavior Among New Soldiers in the U.S. Army: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

We examined the associations between mental disorders and suicidal behavior (ideation, plans, and attempts) among new soldiers using data from the New Soldier Study (NSS) component of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS; N = 38,507). Most new soldiers with a pre-enlistment history of suicide attempt reported a prior mental disorder (59.0%). Each disorder examined was associated with increased odds of suicidal behavior (ORs = 2.6-8.6). Only PTSD and disorders characterized by irritability and impulsive/aggressive behavior (i.e., bipolar disorder, conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) predicted unplanned attempts among ideators. Mental disorders are important predictors of pre-enlistment suicidal behavior among new soldiers and should figure prominently in suicide screening and prevention efforts.