Role of Time Scales in the Coupled Epidemic-Opinion Dynamics on Multiplex Networks.

Modelling the epidemic's spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent's attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent's point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion-dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection's peak.

A Veritable Zoology of Successive Phase Transitions in the Asymmetric q-Voter Model on Multiplex Networks.

We analyze a nonlinear q-voter model with stochastic noise, interpreted in the social context as independence, on a duplex network. The size of the lobby q (i.e., the pressure group) is a crucial parameter that changes the behavior of the system. The q-voter model has been applied on multiplex networks, and it has been shown that the character of the phase transition depends on the number of levels in the multiplex network as well as on the value of q. The primary aim of this study is to examine phase transition character in the case when on each level of the network the lobby size is different, resulting in two parameters q1 and q2. In a system of a duplex clique (i.e., two fully overlapped complete graphs) we find evidence of successive phase transitions when a continuous phase transition is followed by a discontinuous one or two consecutive discontinuous phase transitions appear, depending on the parameter. When analyzing this system, we even encounter mixed-order (or hybrid) phase transition. The observation of successive phase transitions is a new quantity in binary state opinion formation models and we show that our analytical considerations are fully supported by Monte-Carlo simulations.

Quantifying layer similarity in multiplex networks: a systematic study.

Computing layer similarities is an important way of characterizing multiplex networks because various static properties and dynamic processes depend on the relationships between layers. We provide a taxonomy and experimental evaluation of approaches to compare layers in multiplex networks. Our taxonomy includes, systematizes and extends existing approaches, and is complemented by a set of practical guidelines on how to apply them.

Exact combinatorial approach to finite coagulating systems.

This paper outlines an exact combinatorial approach to finite coagulating systems. In this approach, cluster sizes and time are discrete and the binary aggregation alone governs the time evolution of the systems. By considering the growth histories of all possible clusters, an exact expression is derived for the probability of a coagulating system with an arbitrary kernel being found in a given cluster configuration when monodisperse initial conditions are applied. Then this probability is used to calculate the time-dependent distribution for the number of clusters of a given size, the average number of such clusters, and that average's standard deviation. The correctness of our general expressions is proved based on the (analytical and numerical) results obtained for systems with the constant kernel. In addition, the results obtained are compared with the results arising from the solutions to the mean-field Smoluchowski coagulation equation, indicating its weak points. The paper closes with a brief discussion on the extensibility to other systems of the approach presented herein, emphasizing the issue of arbitrary initial conditions.

Kinetic Ising models with various single-spin-flip dynamics on quenched and annealed random regular graphs.

We investigate a kinetic Ising model with several single-spin-flip dynamics (including Metropolis and heat bath) on quenched and annealed random regular graphs. As expected, on the quenched structures all proposed algorithms reproduce the same results since the conditions for the detailed balance and the Boltzmann distribution in an equilibrium are satisfied. However, on the annealed graphs the situation is far less clear-the network annealing disturbs the equilibrium moving the system away from it. Consequently, distinct dynamics lead to different steady states. We show that some algorithms are more resistant to the annealed disorder, which causes only small quantitative changes in the model behavior. On the other hand, there are dynamics for which the influence of annealing on the system is significant, and qualitative changes arise like switching the type of phase transition from a continuous to a discontinuous one. We try to identify features of the proposed dynamics which are responsible for the above phenomenon.

Tricriticality in the q-neighbor Ising model on a partially duplex clique.

We analyze a modified kinetic Ising model, a so-called q-neighbor Ising model, with Metropolis dynamics [Phys. Rev. E 92, 052105 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.92.052105] on a duplex clique and a partially duplex clique. In the q-neighbor Ising model each spin interacts only with q spins randomly chosen from its whole neighborhood. In the case of a duplex clique the change of a spin is allowed only if both levels simultaneously induce this change. Due to the mean-field-like nature of the model we are able to derive the analytic form of transition probabilities and solve the corresponding master equation. The existence of the second level changes dramatically the character of the phase transition. In the case of the monoplex clique, the q-neighbor Ising model exhibits a continuous phase transition for q=3, discontinuous phase transition for q≥4, and for q=1 and q=2 the phase transition is not observed. On the other hand, in the case of the duplex clique continuous phase transitions are observed for all values of q, even for q=1 and q=2. Subsequently we introduce a partially duplex clique, parametrized by r∈[0,1], which allows us to tune the network from monoplex (r=0) to duplex (r=1). Such a generalized topology, in which a fraction r of all nodes appear on both levels, allows us to obtain the critical value of r=r^{*}(q) at which a tricriticality (switch from continuous to discontinuous phase transition) appears.

Oscillating hysteresis in the q-neighbor Ising model.

We modify the kinetic Ising model with Metropolis dynamics, allowing each spin to interact only with q spins randomly chosen from the whole system, which corresponds to the topology of a complete graph. We show that the model with q≥3 exhibits a phase transition between ferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases at temperature T*, which linearly increases with q. Moreover, we show that for q=3 the phase transition is continuous and that it is discontinuous for larger values of q. For q>3, the hysteresis exhibits oscillatory behavior-expanding for even values of q and shrinking for odd values of q. Due to the mean-field-like nature of the model, we are able to derive the analytical form of transition probabilities and, therefore, calculate not only the probability density function of the order parameter but also precisely determine the hysteresis and the effective potential showing stable, unstable, and metastable steady states. Our results show that a seemingly small modification of the kinetic Ising model leads not only to the switch from a continuous to a discontinuous phase transition, but also to an unexpected oscillating behavior of the hysteresis and a puzzling phenomenon for q=5, which might be taken as evidence for the so-called mixed-order phase transition.

Phase transitions in the q-voter model with noise on a duplex clique.

We study a nonlinear q-voter model with stochastic noise, interpreted in the social context as independence, on a duplex network. To study the role of the multilevelness in this model we propose three methods of transferring the model from a mono- to a multiplex network. They take into account two criteria: one related to the status of independence (LOCAL vs GLOBAL) and one related to peer pressure (AND vs OR). In order to examine the influence of the presence of more than one level in the social network, we perform simulations on a particularly simple multiplex: a duplex clique, which consists of two fully overlapped complete graphs (cliques). Solving numerically the rate equation and simultaneously conducting Monte Carlo simulations, we provide evidence that even a simple rearrangement into a duplex topology may lead to significant changes in the observed behavior. However, qualitative changes in the phase transitions can be observed for only one of the considered rules: LOCAL&AND. For this rule the phase transition becomes discontinuous for q=5, whereas for a monoplex such behavior is observed for q=6. Interestingly, only this rule admits construction of realistic variants of the model, in line with recent social experiments.

Quantification of diabetes comorbidity risks across life using nation-wide big claims data.

Despite substantial progress in the study of diabetes, important questions remain about its comorbidities and clinical heterogeneity. To explore these issues, we develop a framework allowing for the first time to quantify nation-wide risks and their age- and sex-dependence for each diabetic comorbidity, and whether the association may be consequential or causal, in a sample of almost two million patients. This study is equivalent to nearly 40,000 single clinical measurements. We confirm the highly controversial relation of increased risk for Parkinson's disease in diabetics, using a 10 times larger cohort than previous studies on this relation. Detection of type 1 diabetes leads detection of depressions, whereas there is a strong comorbidity relation between type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia, suggesting similar pathogenic or medication-related mechanisms. We find significant sex differences in the progression of, for instance, sleep disorders and congestive heart failure in diabetic patients. Hypertension is a highly sex-sensitive comorbidity with females being at lower risk during fertile age, but at higher risk otherwise. These results may be useful to improve screening practices in the general population. Clinical management of diabetes must address age- and sex-dependence of multiple comorbid conditions.

Transition due to preferential cluster growth of collective emotions in online communities.

We consider a preferential cluster growth in a stochastic model describing the dynamics of a binary Markov chain with an additional long-range memory. The model is driven by data describing emotional patterns observed in online community discussions with binary states corresponding to emotional valences. Numerical simulations and approximate analytical calculations show that the pattern of frequencies depends on a preference exponent related to the memory strength in our model. For low values of this exponent in the majority of simulated discussion threads both emotions are observed with similar frequencies. When the exponent increases an ordered phase emerges in the majority of threads, i.e., only one emotion is represented from a certain moment. Similar changes are observed with increase of a single-step Markov memory value. The transition becomes discontinuous in the thermodynamical limit when discussions are infinitely long and even an infinitely small preference exponent leads to ordered behavior in each discussion thread. Numerical simulations are in a good agreement with the approximated analytical formula. The model resembles a dynamical phase transition observed in other Markov models with a long memory where persistent dynamics follows from a transition to a superdiffusion phase. The ordered patterns predicted by our model have been found in the Blog06 dataset although their number is limited by fluctuations and sentiment classification errors.

Collective emotions online and their influence on community life.

BACKGROUND: E-communities, social groups interacting online, have recently become an object of interdisciplinary research. As with face-to-face meetings, Internet exchanges may not only include factual information but also emotional information--how participants feel about the subject discussed or other group members. Emotions in turn are known to be important in affecting interaction partners in offline communication in many ways. Could emotions in Internet exchanges affect others and systematically influence quantitative and qualitative aspects of the trajectory of e-communities? The development of automatic sentiment analysis has made large scale emotion detection and analysis possible using text messages collected from the web. However, it is not clear if emotions in e-communities primarily derive from individual group members' personalities or if they result from intra-group interactions, and whether they influence group activities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, for the first time, we show the collective character of affective phenomena on a large scale as observed in four million posts downloaded from Blogs, Digg and BBC forums. To test whether the emotions of a community member may influence the emotions of others, posts were grouped into clusters of messages with similar emotional valences. The frequency of long clusters was much higher than it would be if emotions occurred at random. Distributions for cluster lengths can be explained by preferential processes because conditional probabilities for consecutive messages grow as a power law with cluster length. For BBC forum threads, average discussion lengths were higher for larger values of absolute average emotional valence in the first ten comments and the average amount of emotion in messages fell during discussions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, our results prove that collective emotional states can be created and modulated via Internet communication and that emotional expressiveness is the fuel that sustains some e-communities.

Scaling of human behavior during portal browsing.

We investigated flows of visitors migrating between different portal subpages. Two various portals were studied as weighted networks where nodes are portal subpages and edge weights are numbers of user transitions. Such networks differ from networks of portal subpages connected by hyperlinks prepared by portal designers. Distributions of link weights, node strengths, and times spent by visitors at one subpage follow power laws over several decades for data collected during two different days and for weekly data. The distribution of numbers P(z) of unique subpages visited during one session is exponential and there is a square-root dependence between the total number of transitions n during a single visit and the average z . A model of portal surfing is developed where the browsing process corresponds to a self-attracting walk on the weighted network with a short memory. Results of numerical simulation are in agreement with weekly and daily portal data, and our analytical approach fits empirical data in the center part of scaling regime.