The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries.

Beginning in 2000, in economically advanced countries, a remarkable bifurcation in fertility levels has emerged, with one group in the moderate range of period total fertility rates (TFR), about 1.9, and the other at 1.3. The upper branch consists of countries in Northern and Western Europe, Oceania and the United States; the lower branch includes Central, Southern and Eastern Europe, and East and Southeast Asia. A review of the major theories for low fertility countries reveals that none of them would have predicted this specific bifurcation. We argue that those countries with fertility levels close to replacement level have institutional arrangements, and related policies, that make it easier, not easy, for women to combine the worker and mother roles. The institutional details are quite different across countries, suggesting that multiple combinations of institutional arrangements and policies can lead to the same country-level fertility outcome. Canada, the only exception to this bifurcation, illustrates the importance of the different institutional structures in Québec compared to the rest of Canada.

Multidimensional life table estimation of the total fertility rate and its components.

Using discrete-time survival models of parity progression and illustrative data from the Philippines, this article develops a multivariate multidimensional life table of nuptiality and fertility, the dimensions of which are age, parity, and duration in parity. The measures calculated from this life table include total fertility rate (TFR), [corrected] total marital fertility rate (TMFR), parity progression ratios (PPR), age-specific fertility rates, mean and median ages at first marriage, mean and median closed birth intervals, and mean and median ages at childbearing by child's birth order and for all birth orders combined. These measures are referred to collectively as "TFR and its components." Because the multidimensional life table is multivariate, all measures derived from it are also multivariate in the sense that they can be tabulated by categories or selected values of one socioeconomic variable while controlling for other socioeconomic variables. The methodology is applied to birth history data, in the form of actual birth histories from a fertility survey or reconstructed birth histories derived from a census or household survey. The methodology yields period estimates as well as cohort estimates of the aforementioned measures.

Employment and Household Tasks of Japanese Couples, 1994-2009.

The paper examines changes in the relationship between employment and household tasks of Japanese couples, using data drawn from national cross-sectional surveys in 1994, 2000 and 2009 of persons aged 20-49 and from the 2009 follow-up of the 2000 survey. Wives' employment is structured by their husbands' employment time and earning power, as well as by their family situations including the presence and age of children and coresidence with parents. Housework hours of husbands, though very low, increased over time, while wives' hours decreased. Wives housework time decreases as their employment time increases. Marriage dramatically increases women's housework time but produces little change in men's time. Husbands' housework hours are positively correlated with reported marital satisfaction of both spouses.

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province, China, 1975-2005.

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.

Order Amidst Change: Work and Family Trajectories in Japan.

Substantial family and work macro-level change has been occurring in Japan. Examples include a decline in the availability of jobs that afford lifetime protection against unemployment, an increase in jobs that do not carry benefits such as a pension, an increase in age at marriage and at first birth, and an increase in marital dissolution. Using life history data from the 2000 National Survey on Family and Economic Conditions, young Japanese appear to have responded to these macro-level changes in a fairly orderly manner. Marriage and childbearing have been postponed, but marriage still precedes childbearing. Education is completed prior to starting work. For men, once work commences they continue working. For women, the classic conflict between work and family roles is evident. For men and women in both the family and work spheres Japanese young adults have more orderly life course trajectories than American young adults.

Effects of vitamin A supplementation on child mortality: evidence from Nepal's 2001 Demographic and Health Survey.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of Nepal's vitamin A supplementation programme on child mortality at age 12-59 months. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Logistic regression, applied to retrospective data from Nepal's 2001 Demographic and Health Survey. RESULTS: After a number of potentially confounding variables are controlled, the effect of 100% community-level vitamin A coverage since the child's birth, relative to no coverage, is to reduce the odds of dying at age 12-59 months by slightly more than half (OR = 0.47, P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The estimated beneficial effect of vitamin A supplementation on child mortality is larger than that found in most earlier clinical studies. This larger effect may be due mainly to the other health-related activities undertaken by the female community health volunteers who distribute vitamin A capsules.

Community environment and HIV/AIDS-related stigma in China.

This article examines the contextual effects of community environment on individual stigmatizing attitudes toward people with HIV/AIDS in China. Multilevel logistic regression models are used to analyze data on 5,658 respondents aged 15-49 from 66 communities in the Baseline Information, Education, and Communication Survey for HIV/AIDS Prevention in China, conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 2000. The results show that a high level of HIV/AIDS-related risk behavior in the community and a low level of community development are associated with increased HIV/AIDS-related stigma, after controlling for respondents' sociodemographic characteristics, including extent of knowledge about HIV/AIDS. The findings suggest that interventions for reducing HIV/AIDS-related stigma in China should take into account community characteristics, such as level of HIV/AIDS-related risk behavior and level of development in the community.

Early marriage and early motherhood in Nepal.

This paper examines age patterns of first marriage and motherhood and covariates of early marriage, delayed consummation of marriage and early motherhood in Nepal using data from the 2000 Nepal Adolescent and Young Adult Survey (NAYA). Both unmarried and married male and female youths (age 14-22) were included in the survey. The analysis is based on 2800 urban youths and 5075 rural youths with complete information on the variables examined. Proportional hazard models are used to estimate covariates of early marriage and early motherhood, and logistic regression models are used to estimate covariates of delayed consummation of marriage. The results show that early marriage and early motherhood are quite common among Nepalese women, especially in rural areas. Early marriage is much less common among men. Delayed consummation of marriage is common among very young brides, especially in rural areas. The main covariates associated with early marriage and early motherhood are respondent's education, region of residence and ethnicity. The main covariates of delayed consummation of marriage are age at first marriage, region of residence and ethnicity. The study highlights the need to focus on less educated female youths in the Terai region in order to reduce the reproductive and child health risks associated with early marriage and early childbearing.