Factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect in the radiative-convective equilibrium framework.

Investigation of the major factors determining tropical upper-level cloud radiative effect (TUCRE) is crucial for understanding cloud feedback mechanisms. We examined the TUCRE inferred from the outputs of historical runs and AMIP runs from CMIP6 models employing a radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). In this study, we incorporated the RCE model configurations of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics from the climate models, while simplifying the intricate systems. Using the RCE model, we adjusted the global mean surface temperature to achieve energy balance, considering variations in tropical cloud fraction, regional reflectivity, and emission temperature corresponding to each climate model. Subsequently, TUCRE was calculated as a unit of K/%, representing the change in global mean surface temperature (K) in response to an increment in the tropical upper-level clouds (%). Our RCE model simulation indicates that the major factors determining the TUCRE are the emission temperatures of tropical moist-cloudy and moist-clear regions, as well as the fraction of tropical upper-level clouds. The higher determination coefficients between TUCRE and both the emission temperature of tropical moist regions and the upper-level cloud fraction are attributable to their contribution to the trapping effect on the outgoing longwave radiations, which predominantly determines TUCRE. Consequently, the results of this study underscore the importance of accurately representing the upper-level cloud fraction and emission temperature in tropical moist regions to enhance the representation of TUCRE in climate models.

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming.

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Effective Disaster Measures for Cambodia: Implications from Focus Group Interview with Potential Young Professionals in Cambodia.

Cambodia suffers from natural disasters despite rapid economic growth. This study diagnosed the current problems of Cambodia's disaster prevention and preparedness, and found more effective disaster measures through two focus group interviews. Participants are potential young professionals studying in Korea as an international graduate student and have been involved in disaster-related activities in Cambodia. Three major disaster measures have been proposed here. First, the effectiveness of government policy should be improved. To implement the current policy realistically and effectively, we need to secure budgets, support technology development, and expand formal education and training. Second, the private sector should cooperate with civil society to provide better support to the community through corporate social responsibility activities. Specifically, non-governmental organizations should strengthen training and monitoring. As a current important issue, hydropower plants must preserve environmental values according to careful planning. Finally, community-based activities must be actively conducted (e.g., active tree planting and differentiated disaster response training by gender or level). The study would serve as preliminary data to support the Cambodian disaster management plan in the future.

Interpretation of the Top-of-Atmosphere Energy Flux for Future Arctic Warming.

With the trend of amplified warming in the Arctic, we examine the observed and modeled top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative responses to surface air-temperature changes over the Arctic by using TOA energy fluxes from NASA's CERES observations and those from twelve climate models in CMIP5. Considerable inter-model spreads in the radiative responses suggest that future Arctic warming may be determined by the compensation between the radiative imbalance and poleward energy transport (mainly via transient eddy activities). The poleward energy transport tends to prevent excessive Arctic warming: the transient eddy activities are weakened because of the reduced meridional temperature gradient under polar amplification. However, the models that predict rapid Arctic warming do not realistically simulate the compensation effect. This role of energy compensation in future Arctic warming is found only when the inter-model differences in cloud radiative effects are considered. Thus, the dynamical response can act as a buffer to prevent excessive Arctic warming against the radiative response of 0.11 W m-2 K-1 as measured from satellites, which helps the Arctic climate system retain an Arctic climate sensitivity of 4.61 K. Therefore, if quantitative analyses of the observations identify contribution of atmospheric dynamics and cloud effects to radiative imbalance, the satellite-measured radiative response will be a crucial indicator of future Arctic warming.

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate.

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study.

Space observations of cold-cloud phase change.

This study examines the vertically resolved cloud measurements from the cloud-aerosol lidar with orthogonal polarization instrument on Aqua satellite from June 2006 through May 2007 to estimate the extent to which the mixed cloud-phase composition can vary according to the ambient temperature, an important concern for the uncertainty in calculating cloud radiative effects. At -20 degrees C, the global average fraction of supercooled clouds in the total cloud population is found to be about 50% in the data period. Between -10 and -40 degrees C, the fraction is smaller at lower temperatures. However, there are appreciable regional and temporal deviations from the global mean (> +/- 20%) at the isotherm. In the analysis with coincident dust aerosol data from the same instrument, it appears that the variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is negatively correlated with the frequencies of dust aerosols at the -20 degrees C isotherm. This result suggests a possibility that dust particles lifted to the cold cloud layer effectively glaciate supercooled clouds. Observations of radiative flux from the clouds and earth's radiant energy system instrument aboard Terra satellite, as well as radiative transfer model simulations, show that the 20% variation in the supercooled cloud fraction is quantitatively important in cloud radiative effects, especially in shortwave, which are 10-20 W m(-2) for regions of mixed-phase clouds affected by dust. In particular, our results demonstrate that dust, by glaciating supercooled water, can decrease albedo, thus compensating for the increase in albedo due to the dust aerosols themselves. This has important implications for the determination of climate sensitivity.