Health and political economy: building a new common sense in the United States.

The prevailing economic paradigm, characterized by free market thinking and individualistic cultural narratives, has deeply influenced contemporary society in recent decades, including health in the United States. This paradigm, far from being natural, is iteratively intertwined with politics, social group stratification, and norms, together shaping what is known as political economy. The consequences are starkly evident in health, with millions of lives prematurely lost annually in the United States. Drawing on economic re-thinking happening in fields like climate and law, we argue for a new "common sense" towards a health-focused political economy. Central to this proposed shift is action in 3 interconnected areas: capital, care, and culture. Re-orienting capital to prioritize longer-term investments, such as in public options for health care and baby bonds, can promote health and affirmatively include historically marginalized groups. Recognizing that caregiving is economically valuable and necessary for health, approaches like local cadres of community health workers across the United States would be part of building robust caregiving infrastructures. Advancing momentum in these directions, in turn, will require displacing dominant cultural narratives. As the health arena pursues change in the face of real obstacles, recent efforts reinvigorating industrial policy and addressing concentrated market power can serve as inspiration.

Lessons From Across the Pacific-Health Policy Debates Worth Having, Part 1.

This JAMA Forum discusses primary care­oriented health reforms in Singapore.

Lessons From Across the Pacific-Health Policy Debates Worth Having, Part 2.

This JAMA Forum discusses digital health in Australia, health equity in New Zealand, and implications from all 3 nations for the US.

Cities as Platforms for Population Health: Past, Present, and Future.

Policy Points Cities have long driven innovation in public health in response to shifting trends in the burden of disease for populations. Today, the challenges facing municipal health departments include the persistent prevalence of chronic disease and deeply entrenched health inequities, as well as the evolving threats posed by climate change, political gridlock, and surging behavioral health needs. Surmounting these challenges will require generational investment in local public health infrastructure, drawn both from new governmental allocation and from innovative financing mechanisms that allow public health agencies to capture more of the value they create for society. Additional funding must be paired with the local development of public health data systems and the implementation of evidence-based strategies, including community health workers and the co-localization of clinical services and social resources as part of broader efforts to bridge the gap between public health and health care. Above all, advancing urban health demands transformational public policy to tackle inequality and reduce poverty, to address racism as a public health crisis, and to decarbonize infrastructure. One strategy to help achieve these ambitious goals is for cities to organize into coalitions that harness their collective power as a force to improve population health globally.

The Nation's First Publicly Recognized Overdose Prevention Centers: Lessons Learned in New York City.

In November of 2021, multiple factors converged to create a window of opportunity to open overdose prevention centers (OPCs) at two existing syringe service programs (SSPs) in New York City (NYC). Political will exists in NYC, particularly toward the end of the de Blasio administration's term, and the NYC Health Department worked to garner additional support from local and state elected officials given the dire need to address the overdose crisis. This coincided with readiness on the part of one of the NYC SSP providers, OnPoint NYC, to open and operate OPC services. Legal risks were assessed by both the city and the provider. This case study outlines the sequence of events that resulted in NYC supporting OnPoint to open the first two publicly recognized OPCs in the nation, including lessons learned to inform other jurisdictions considering offering such services.

Increases In COVID-19 Vaccination Among NYC Municipal Employees After Implementation Of Vaccination Requirements.

In July 2021 New York City (NYC) instituted a requirement for all municipal employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing. The city eliminated the testing option November 1 of that year. We used general linear regression to compare changes in weekly primary vaccination series completion among NYC municipal employees ages 18-64 living in the city and a comparison group of all other NYC residents in this age group during May-December 2021. The rate of change in vaccination prevalence among NYC municipal employees was greater than that of the comparison group only after the testing option was eliminated (employee slope = 12.0; comparison slope = 5.3). Among racial and ethnic groups, the rate of change in vaccination prevalence among municipal employees was higher than the comparison group for Black and White people. The requirements were associated with narrowing the gap in vaccination prevalence between municipal employees and the comparison group overall and between Black municipal employees and employees from other racial and ethnic groups. Workplace requirements are a promising strategy for increasing vaccination among adults and reducing racial and ethnic disparities in vaccination uptake.

Collateral Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The New York City Experience.

OBJECTIVE: To adapt an existing surveillance system to monitor the collateral impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes in New York City across 6 domains: access to care, chronic disease, sexual/reproductive health, food/economic insecurity, mental/behavioral health, and environmental health. DESIGN: Epidemiologic assessment. Public health surveillance system. SETTING: New York City. PARTICIPANTS: New York City residents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We monitored approximately 30 indicators, compiling data from 2006 to 2022. Sources of data include clinic visits, surveillance surveys, vital statistics, emergency department visits, lead and diabetes registries, Medicaid claims, and public benefit enrollment. RESULTS: We observed disruptions across most indicators including more than 50% decrease in emergency department usage early in the pandemic, which rebounded to prepandemic levels by late 2021, changes in reporting levels of probable anxiety and depression, and worsening birth outcomes for mothers who identified as Asian/Pacific Islander or Black. Data are processed in SAS and analyzed using the R Surveillance package to detect possible inflections. Data are updated monthly to an internal Tableau Dashboard and shared with agency leadership. CONCLUSIONS: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues into its third year, public health priorities are returning to addressing non-COVID-19-related diseases and conditions, their collateral impacts, and postpandemic recovery needs. Substantial work is needed to return even to a suboptimal baseline across multiple health topic areas. Our surveillance framework offers a valuable starting place to effectively allocate resources, develop interventions, and issue public communications.

Vicious and Virtuous Cycles in Health.

This JAMA Forum discusses how physicians and health professionals can help patients by intervening when they observe harmful cycles in health and by encouraging virtuous or health-promoting cycles.

Developing a Model to Predict High Health Care Utilization Among Patients in a New York City Safety Net System.

BACKGROUND: Health care facilities use predictive models to identify patients at risk of high future health care utilization who may benefit from tailored interventions. Previous predictive models that have focused solely on inpatient readmission risk, relied on commercial insurance claims data, or failed to incorporate social determinants of health may not be generalizable to safety net hospital populations. To address these limitations, we developed a payer-agnostic risk model for patients receiving care at the largest US safety net hospital system. METHODS: We transformed electronic health record and administrative data from 833,969 adult patients who received care during July 2016-July 2017 into demographic, utilization, diagnosis, medication, and social determinant variables (including homelessness and incarceration history) to predict health care utilization during the following year.We selected the final model by developing and validating multiple classification and regression models predicting 10+ acute days, 5+ acute days, or continuous acute days. We compared a portfolio of performance metrics while prioritizing positive predictive value for patients whose predicted utilization was among the top 1% to maximize clinical utility. RESULTS: The final model predicted continuous number of acute days and included 17 variables. For the top 1% of high acute care utilizers, the model had a positive predictive value of 47.6% and sensitivity of 17.3%. Previous health care utilization and psychosocial factors were the strongest predictors of future high acute care utilization. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated a feasible approach to predictive high acute care utilization in a safety net hospital using electronic health record data while incorporating social risk factors.

Return on Investment of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in New York City.

Importance: New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, invested heavily in its COVID-19 vaccination campaign to mitigate the burden of disease outbreaks. Understanding the return on investment (ROI) of this campaign would provide insights into vaccination programs to curb future COVID-19 outbreaks. Objective: To estimate the ROI of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign by estimating the tangible direct and indirect costs from a societal perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model of disease transmission was calibrated to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New York City between December 14, 2020, and January 31, 2022. This simulation model was validated with observed patterns of reported hospitalizations and deaths during the same period. Exposures: An agent-based counterfactual scenario without vaccination was simulated using the calibrated model. Main Outcomes and Measures: Costs of health care and deaths were estimated in the actual pandemic trajectory with vaccination and in the counterfactual scenario without vaccination. The savings achieved by vaccination, which were associated with fewer outpatient visits, emergency department visits, emergency medical services, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions, were also estimated. The value of a statistical life (VSL) lost due to COVID-19 death and the productivity loss from illness were accounted for in calculating the ROI. Results: During the study period, the vaccination campaign averted an estimated $27.96 (95% credible interval [CrI], $26.19-$29.84) billion in health care expenditures and 315 724 (95% CrI, 292 143-340 420) potential years of life lost, averting VSL loss of $26.27 (95% CrI, $24.39-$28.21) billion. The estimated net savings attributable to vaccination were $51.77 (95% CrI, $48.50-$55.85) billion. Every $1 invested in vaccination yielded estimated savings of $10.19 (95% CrI, $9.39-$10.87) in direct and indirect costs of health outcomes that would have been incurred without vaccination. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this modeling study showed an association of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign with reduction in severe outcomes and avoidance of substantial economic losses. This significant ROI supports continued investment in improving vaccine uptake during the ongoing pandemic.

Local Legal Strategies to Increase Vaccination During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Lessons from New York City.

Vaccine mandates played a critical role in the success of New York City's COVID-19 response. By relying on evidence as a substantive basis for the mandates and adhering to procedural requirements and precedent, New York City leveraged its position and expertise as a local governmental authority to devise mandatory vaccine policies that withstood numerous legal challenges. New York City's experience highlights the role of municipal government in mounting a meaningful public health response, and the strategies adopted by NYC may provide a blueprint for municipalities around the world facing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the threat of future public health emergencies.

A New Category of "Never Events"-Ending Harmful Hospital Policies.

This JAMA Forum discusses hospital policies that can harm patients, such as aggressively collecting payment on medical bills from those who cannot afford to pay, and provides ways to address current "never event" policies.

The effect of a proof-of-vaccination requirement, incentive payments, and employer-based mandates on COVID-19 vaccination rates in New York City: a synthetic-control analysis.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines have been available to all adults in the USA since April, 2021, but many adults remain unvaccinated. We aimed to assess the joint effect of a proof-of-vaccination requirement, incentive payments, and employer-based mandates on rates of adult vaccination in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We constructed a synthetic control group for NYC composed of other counties in the core of large, metropolitan areas in the USA. The vaccination outcomes for NYC were compared against those of the synthetic control group from July 26, 2021, to Nov 1, 2021, to determine the differential effects of the policies. Analyses were conducted on county-level vaccination data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The synthetic control group was constructed by matching on county-level preintervention vaccination outcomes, partisanship, economic attributes, demographics, and metropolitan area population. Statistical inference was conducted using placebo tests for non-treated counties. FINDINGS: The synthetic control group resembled NYC across attributes used in the matching process. The cumulative adult vaccination rate for NYC (in adults aged 18 years or older who received at least one dose of an authorised COVID-19 vaccine) increased from 72·5% to 89·4% (+16·9 percentage points [pp]) during the intervention period, compared with an increase from 72·5% to 83·2% (+10·7 pp) for the synthetic control group, a difference of 6·2 pp (95% CI 1·4-10·7), or 410 201 people (90 966-706 532). Daily vaccinations for NYC were consistently higher than those in the synthetic control group, a pattern that started shortly after the start of the intervention period. INTERPRETATION: The combination of a proof-of-vaccination requirement, incentive payments, and vaccine mandates increased vaccination rates among adults in NYC compared with jurisdictions that did not use the same measures. Whether the impact of these measures occurred by inducing more people to get vaccinated, or by accelerating vaccinations that would have occurred later, the increase in vaccination rates likely averted illness and death. FUNDING: None.