External validation of NTCP-models for radiation pneumonitis in lung cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

PURPOSE: Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models can be used to estimate the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP). The aim of this study was to externally validate the most frequently used prediction models for RP, i.e., the QUANTEC and APPELT models, in a large cohort of lung cancer patients treated with IMRT or VMAT. [1-2] METHODS AND MATERIALS: This prospective cohort study, included lung cancer patients treated between 2013 and 2018. A closed testing procedure was performed to test the need for model updating. To improve model performance, modification or removal of variables was considered. Performance measures included tests for goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: In this cohort of 612 patients, the incidence of RP ≥ grade 2 was 14.5%. For the QUANTEC-model, recalibration was recommended which resulted in a revised intercept and adjusted regression coefficient (from 0.126 to 0.224) of the mean lung dose (MLD),. The APPELT-model needed revision including model updating with modification and elimination of variables. After revision, the New RP-model included the following predictors (and regression coefficients): MLD (B = 0.250), age (B = 0.049, and smoking status (B = 0.902). The discrimination of the updated APPELT-model was higher compared to the recalibrated QUANTEC-model (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that both the QUANTEC- and APPELT-model needed revision. Next to changes of the intercept and regression coefficients, the APPELT model improved further by model updating and performed better than the recalibrated QUANTEC model. This New RP-model is widely applicable containing non-tumour site specific variables, which can easily be collected.

Development of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Model for Trismus in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Treated With Radiotherapy: The Role of Dosimetric and Clinical Factors.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The aim of this study was to develop a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for trismus in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective measurements of maximum inter-incisal opening (MIO) were performed at baseline and 6 months after definitive RT in 132 HNC patients. The primary endpoint of this study was defined when a patient fulfilled both of the following criteria: 1) MIO at 6 months after RT ≤35 mm and 2) MIO at 6 months after RT ≤80% of baseline MIO. Eleven clinical factors and a wide range of dosimetric factors (mean dose, maximum dose, V5, V10, V20, and V40) in twelve organs at risk (OARs) were chosen as candidate prognostic variables. RESULTS: Thirty out of 132 patients (23%) developed the primary endpoint. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the mean dose to the contralateral mandible joint (p=0.001) and baseline MIO (p=0.027) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: A multivariable NTCP model for trismus in HNC patients treated with RT was established including the mean dose to contralateral mandible joint and baseline MIO.

Swallowing sparing intensity modulated radiotherapy (SW-IMRT) in head and neck cancer: Clinical validation according to the model-based approach.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to clinically validate a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for grade 2-4 swallowing dysfunction at 6months after radiotherapy or chemoradiation (SWALM6) in head and neck cancer patients treated with swallowing sparing intensity modulated radiotherapy (SW-IMRT) and to test if SW-IMRT resulted in a reduction of the prevalence of SWALM6. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The primary endpoint was SWALM6. For all 186 patients, a standard IMRT (parotid sparing) and a SW-IMRT plan (additional constraints for swallowing organs at risk) was created. The difference in NTCP for SWALM6 (ΔNTCPSWALM6=NTCPstandard-NTCPSW-IMRT) was calculated. Patients were treated with SW-IMRT. The external validation of the NTCP model was analyzed by comparing performance measures. RESULTS: The mean ΔNTCPSWALM6 was 4.9% (range 0.01-17.3%), with a significant lower mean predicted NTCPSW-IMRT of 22.6% (95% CI 20.2-24.9%), compared to NTCPstandard of 27.5% (95% CI 24.9-29.9%) (p<0.001). There was a perfect correspondence of NTCPSW-IMRT with the observed prevalence of SWALM6 (22.6%). The overall model performance, discrimination and 'goodness of fit' were good. CONCLUSION: We externally validated the multivariable NTCP model for SWALM6 in SW-IMRT treated patients, showing reduced swallowing dysfunction by reducing the dose parameters included in this NTCP model.

Patterns of long-term swallowing dysfunction after definitive radiotherapy or chemoradiation.

OBJECTIVES: To identify patterns of long-term, radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction after definitive radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (RT or CHRT) and to determine which factors may explain these patterns over time. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 238 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with RT or CHRT. The primary endpoint was ⩾grade 2 swallowing dysfunction at 6, 12, 18 and 24months after treatment. Cluster analysis was used to identify different patterns over time. The differences between the mean dose to the swallowing organs at risk for each pattern were determined by using dose maps. RESULTS: The cluster analysis revealed five patterns of swallowing dysfunction: low persistent, intermediate persistent, severe persistent, transient and progressive. Patients with high dose to the upper pharyngeal, laryngeal and lower pharyngeal region had the highest risk of severe persistent swallowing dysfunction. Transient problems mainly occurred after high dose to the laryngeal and lower pharyngeal regions, combined with moderate dose to the upper pharyngeal region. The progressive pattern was mainly seen after moderate dose to the upper pharyngeal region. CONCLUSIONS: Various patterns of swallowing dysfunction after definitive RT or CHRT can be identified over time. This could reflect different underlying biological processes.

Acute symptoms during the course of head and neck radiotherapy or chemoradiation are strong predictors of late dysphagia.

PURPOSE: To determine if acute symptoms during definitive radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiation (CHRT) are prognostic factors for late dysphagia in head and neck cancer (HNC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study consisted of 260 HNC patients who received definitive RT or CHRT. The primary endpoint was grade 2-4 swallowing dysfunction at 6 months after completing RT (SWALM6). During treatment, acute symptoms, including oral mucositis, xerostomia and dysphagia, were scored, and the scores were accumulated weekly and entered into an existing reference model for SWALM6 that consisted of dose-volume variables only. RESULTS: Both acute xerostomia and dysphagia were strong prognostic factors for SWALM6. When acute scores were added as variables to the reference model, model performance increased as the course of treatment progressed: the AUC rose from 0.78 at the baseline to 0.85 in week 6. New models built for weeks 3-6 were significantly better able to identify patients with and without late dysphagia. CONCLUSION: Acute xerostomia and dysphagia during the course of RT are strong prognostic factors for late dysphagia. Including accumulated acute symptom scores on a weekly basis in prediction models for late dysphagia significantly improves the identification of high-risk and low-risk patients at an early stage during treatment and might facilitate individualized treatment adaptation.

Development of a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for tube feeding dependence after curative radiotherapy/chemo-radiotherapy in head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Curative radiotherapy/chemo-radiotherapy for head and neck cancer (HNC) may result in severe acute and late side effects, including tube feeding dependence. The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to develop a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for tube feeding dependence 6 months (TUBEM6) after definitive radiotherapy, radiotherapy plus cetuximab or concurrent chemoradiation based on pre-treatment and treatment characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included 355 patients with HNC. TUBEM6 was scored prospectively in a standard follow-up program. To design the prediction model, the penalized learning method LASSO was used, with TUBEM6 as the endpoint. RESULTS: The prevalence of TUBEM6 was 10.7%. The multivariable model with the best performance consisted of the variables: advanced T-stage, moderate to severe weight loss at baseline, accelerated radiotherapy, chemoradiation, radiotherapy plus cetuximab, the mean dose to the superior and inferior pharyngeal constrictor muscle, to the contralateral parotid gland and to the cricopharyngeal muscle. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a multivariable NTCP model for TUBEM6 to identify patients at risk for tube feeding dependence. The dosimetric variables can be used to optimize radiotherapy treatment planning aiming at prevention of tube feeding dependence and to estimate the benefit of new radiation technologies.

Development and validation of a prediction model for tube feeding dependence after curative (chemo-) radiation in head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND: Curative radiotherapy or chemoradiation for head and neck cancer (HNC) may result in severe acute and late side effects, including tube feeding dependence. The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to develop a prediction model for tube feeding dependence 6 months (TUBEM6) after curative (chemo-) radiotherapy in HNC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tube feeding dependence was scored prospectively. To develop the multivariable model, a group LASSO analysis was carried out, with TUBEM6 as the primary endpoint (n = 427). The model was then validated in a test cohort (n = 183). The training cohort was divided into three groups based on the risk of TUBEM6 to test whether the model could be extrapolated to later time points (12, 18 and 24 months). RESULTS: Most important predictors for TUBEM6 were weight loss prior to treatment, advanced T-stage, positive N-stage, bilateral neck irradiation, accelerated radiotherapy and chemoradiation. Model performance was good, with an Area under the Curve of 0.86 in the training cohort and 0.82 in the test cohort. The TUBEM6-based risk groups were significantly associated with tube feeding dependence at later time points (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: We established an externally validated predictive model for tube feeding dependence after curative radiotherapy or chemoradiation, which can be used to predict TUBEM6.

The QUANTEC criteria for parotid gland dose and their efficacy to prevent moderate to severe patient-rated xerostomia.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effect in the Clinic (QUANTEC) Group defined dose-volume constraints for the parotid glands to avoid severe xerostomia. The aim of this study was to determine if application of these QUANTEC criteria also protected against moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 307 head and neck cancer patients treated with primary (chemo)radiotherapy, either with 3D-CRT (56%) or with IMRT (44%). All patients participated in a standard follow-up program in which radiation-induced toxicity and quality of life were prospectively assessed. Patients who met the QUANTEC criteria were classified as low risk and otherwise as high risk. RESULTS: In total, 41% of the patients (treated with 3D-CRT and IMRT) were classified as low risk patients. In the group treated with 3D-CRT and IMRT, it was possible to meet the QUANTEC criteria in 47% and 32% of the patients, respectively. Sparing the parotid glands with IMRT was considerably more difficult in patients with lymph node metastases and in patients with nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal tumours. Low risk patients reported significantly less moderate-to-severe xerostomia than high risk patients. However, the predicted risk of elderly patients and patients with pre-existing minor patient-rated xerostomia at baseline was > 20%, even when the QUANTEC criteria were met. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly lower rates of radiation-induced patient-rated xerostomia were found among low risk patients treated according to the QUANTEC criteria, but these criteria do not completely protect against xerostomia. Particularly in elderly patients and patients already suffering from minor xerostomia at baseline, the QUANTEC criteria do not sufficiently protect against persistent, moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia.

Swallowing-sparing intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer patients: treatment planning optimization and clinical introduction.

PURPOSE: To report on the potential benefits of swallowing-sparing intensity-modulated radiation therapy (SW-IMRT) in the first 100 SW-IMRT treated patients, as well as on the factors that influence the potential benefit of SW-IMRT relative to standard parotid sparing (ST)-IMRT. MATERIAL AND METHODS: One hundred consecutive head and neck cancer patients, scheduled for primary radiotherapy, were included in this prospective cohort study. For each patient, ST-IMRT and SW-IMRT treatment plans were created. All patients were eventually treated with SW-IMRT. Objectives for SW-IMRT were identical to those with ST-IMRT, with additional objectives to spare the swallowing organs at risk (SWOARs). After 20 patients, interim results were evaluated by a multidisciplinary committee. RESULTS: The mean gain of SW-IMRT relative to ST-IMRT in the first 20 patients was less than expected based on our previous planning comparative study. A critical review of all plans revealed that the results with SW-IMRT could be improved by: (1) gaining experience and attempting to reduce SWOAR dose as much as possible; (2) accepting a moderate shift of dose to unspecified tissues; (3) maximizing SWOAR sparing while keeping PTV coverage exactly according to protocol. In the additional 80 patients, the mean dose to the various SWOARs was further reduced significantly compared to ST-IMRT. Dose reductions with SW-IMRT were largest for patients who received neck irradiation, had a tumour located in the larynx, oropharynx, nasopharynx or oral cavity, and had <75% overlap between SWOARs and PTVs. The mean absolute reduction in predicted physician-rated RTOG grade 2-4 swallowing dysfunction for patients numbered 21-100 was 6.1%, ranging from 0.0% to 17.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of SW-IMRT depends significantly on neck radiotherapy, tumour site and the amount of overlap between SWOARs and PTVs. Optimal clinical introduction requires a detailed evaluation and comparison between the standard (ST-IMRT) and new technique (SW-IMRT) in order to fully exploit the potential benefits.

A prospective cohort study on radiation-induced hypothyroidism: development of an NTCP model.

PURPOSE: To establish a multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 105 patients treated with (chemo-) radiation therapy for head-and-neck cancer was prospectively measured during a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Hypothyroidism was defined as elevated serum TSH with decreased or normal free thyroxin (T4). A multivariate logistic regression model with bootstrapping was used to determine the most important prognostic variables for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients (33%) developed primary hypothyroidism within 2 years after radiation therapy. An NTCP model based on 2 variables, including the mean thyroid gland dose and the thyroid gland volume, was most predictive for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. NTCP values increased with higher mean thyroid gland dose (odds ratio [OR]: 1.064/Gy) and decreased with higher thyroid gland volume (OR: 0.826/cm(3)). Model performance was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective study resulting in an NTCP model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism. The probability of hypothyroidism rises with increasing dose to the thyroid gland, whereas it reduces with increasing thyroid gland volume.

3D Variation in delineation of head and neck organs at risk.

BACKGROUND: Consistent delineation of patient anatomy becomes increasingly important with the growing use of highly conformal and adaptive radiotherapy techniques. This study investigates the magnitude and 3D localization of interobserver variability of organs at risk (OARs) in the head and neck area with application of delineation guidelines, to establish measures to reduce current redundant variability in delineation practice. METHODS: Interobserver variability among five experienced radiation oncologists was studied in a set of 12 head and neck patient CT scans for the spinal cord, parotid and submandibular glands, thyroid cartilage, and glottic larynx. For all OARs, three endpoints were calculated: the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC), the Concordance Index (CI) and a 3D measure of variation (3D SD). RESULTS: All endpoints showed largest interobserver variability for the glottic larynx (ICC = 0.27, mean CI = 0.37 and 3D SD = 3.9 mm). Better agreement in delineations was observed for the other OARs (range, ICC = 0.32-0.83, mean CI = 0.64-0.71 and 3D SD = 0.9-2.6 mm). Cranial, caudal, and medial regions of the OARs showed largest variations. All endpoints provided support for improvement of delineation practice. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in delineation is traced to several regional causes. Measures to reduce this variation can be: (1) guideline development, (2) joint delineation review sessions and (3) application of multimodality imaging. Improvement of delineation practice is needed to standardize patient treatments.

Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: results of a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop predictive models for RISD after curative (chemo) radiotherapy ((CH) RT). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 354 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was grade 2 or more swallowing dysfunction according to the RTOG/EORTC late radiation morbidity scoring criteria at 6 months after (CH) RT. The secondary endpoints were patient-rated swallowing complaints as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaire. To select the most predictive variables a multivariate logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping was used. RESULTS: At 6 months after (CH) RT the bootstrapping procedure revealed that a model based on the mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM) and mean dose to the supraglottic larynx was most predictive. For the secondary endpoints different predictive models were found: for problems with swallowing liquids the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT). For problems with swallowing soft food the mean dose to the middle PCM, age (18-65 versus >65 years), tumour site (naso/oropharynx versus other sites) and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT) were the most predictive factors. For problems with swallowing solid food the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the superior PCM, the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and age (18-65 versus >65 years). And for choking when swallowing the V60 of the oesophageal inlet muscle and the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx were the most predictive factors. CONCLUSIONS: Physician-rated and patient-rated RISD in head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT cannot be predicted with univariate relationships between the dose distribution in a single organ at risk and an endpoint. Separate predictive models are needed for different endpoints and factors other than dose volume histogram parameters are important as well.

External validation of three dimensional conformal radiotherapy based NTCP models for patient-rated xerostomia and sticky saliva among patients treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of predictive models for patient-rated xerostomia (XER(6M)) and sticky saliva (STIC(6M)) at 6 months after completion of primary (chemo)radiation developed in head and neck cancer patients treated with 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) to predict outcome in patients treated with intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Recently, we published the results of a prospective study on predictive models for patient-rated xerostomia and sticky saliva in head and neck cancer patients treated with 3D-CRT (3D-CRT based NTCP models). The 3D-CRT based model for XER(6M) consisted of three factors, including the mean parotid dose, age, and baseline xerostomia (none versus a bit). The 3D-CRT based model for STIC(6M) consisted of the mean submandibular dose, age, the mean sublingual dose, and baseline sticky saliva (none versus a bit). In the current study, a population consisting of 162 patients treated with IMRT was used to test the external validity of these 3D-CRT based models. External validity was described by the explained variation (R(2) Nagelkerke) and the Brier score. The discriminative abilities of the models were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration (i.e. the agreement between predicted and observed outcome) was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow "goodness-of-fit" test. RESULTS: Overall model performance of the 3D-CRT based predictive models for XER(6M) and STIC(6M) was significantly worse in terms of the Brier score and R(2) Nagelkerke among patients treated with IMRT. Moreover the AUC for both 3D-CRT based models in the IMRT treated patients were markedly lower. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a significant disagreement for both models between predicted risk and observed outcome. CONCLUSION: 3D-CRT based models for patient-rated xerostomia and sticky saliva among head and neck cancer patients treated with primary radiotherapy or chemoradiation turned out to be less valid for patients treated with IMRT. The main message from these findings is that models developed in a population treated with a specific technique cannot be generalised and extrapolated to a population treated with another technique without external validation.

Development of NTCP models for head and neck cancer patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for xerostomia and sticky saliva: the role of dosimetric and clinical factors.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this multicentre prospective study was to investigate the significance of the radiation dose in the major and minor salivary glands, and other pre-treatment and treatment factors, with regard to the development of patient-rated xerostomia and sticky saliva among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with primary (chemo-) radiotherapy ((CH)RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The study population was composed of 167 consecutive HNC patients treated with three-dimensional conformal (3D-CRT) (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was moderate to severe xerostomia (XER6m) as assessed by the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 at 6 months after completing (CH)RT. The secondary endpoint was moderate to severe sticky saliva at 6 months (STIC6m). All organs at risk (OARs) potentially involved in salivary function were delineated on planning-CT, including the parotid, submandibular and sublingual glands and the minor glands in the soft palate, cheeks and lips. Patients with moderate to severe xerostomia or sticky saliva at baseline were excluded. The optimum number of variables for a multivariate logistic regression model was determined using a bootstrapping method. RESULTS: The multivariate analysis showed the mean parotid dose, age and baseline xerostomia (none versus a bit) to be the most important predictors for XER6m. The risk of developing xerostomia increased with age and was higher when minor baseline xerostomia was present in comparison with patients without any xerostomia complaints at baseline. Model performance was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82. For STIC6m, the mean submandibular dose, age, the mean sublingual dose and baseline sticky saliva (none versus a bit) were most predictive for sticky saliva. The risk of developing STIC6m increased with age and was higher when minor baseline sticky saliva was present in comparison with patients without any sticky saliva complaints at baseline. Model performance was good with an AUC of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: Dose distributions in the minor salivary glands in patients receiving 3D-CRT have limited significance with regard to patient-rated symptoms related to salivary dysfunction. Besides the parotid and submandibular glands, only the sublingual glands were significantly associated with sticky saliva. In addition, reliable risk estimation also requires information from other factors such as age and baseline subjective scores. When these selected factors are included in predictive models, instead of only dose volume histogram parameters, model performance can be improved significantly.

The Groningen Radiotherapy-Induced Xerostomia questionnaire: development and validation of a new questionnaire.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a questionnaire (Groningen Radiotherapy-Induced Xerostomia (GRIX) questionnaire) that has the ability to distinguish between patient-rated xerostomia during day and night and can be used to evaluate the impact of emerging radiation delivery techniques aiming at prevention of xerostomia in more detail. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All questions in the GRIX were generated from an exhaustive list of relevant questions according to xerostomia as reported in the literature and reported by patients and health care providers. Finally the GRIX was reduced from 56 questions to a 14-item questionnaire, with four subscales; xerostomia during day and night and sticky saliva during day and night. 315 patients filled out 2936 questionnaires and the GRIX was evaluated by calculating Crohnbach's α for all subscales. Criterion validity was evaluated to compare the GRIX with patient-rated xerostomia scored with the EORTC QLQ-HN35 and physician-rated xerostomia, test-retest analysis and responsiveness were also tested. RESULTS: Crohnbach's α varied for all subscales between 0.88 and 0.94. The GRIX scored well for criterion-related validity on all subscales with high correlations with the EORTC QLQ-HN35 xerostomia and sticky saliva scale as well with physician-rated toxicity scoring. No significant differences were found between test and retest score and the GRIX showed good responsiveness with different time points for all subscales. CONCLUSION: The GRIX is a validated questionnaire which can be used in future research focusing on patient-rated xerostomia and sticky saliva during day and night in relation with the impact of emerging radiation delivery techniques aiming at reduction of xerostomia.