A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic - Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil.

We introduce a compartmental model SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) with age structure for the spread of the SARAS-CoV virus. In order to model current different vaccines we use compartments for individuals vaccinated with one and two doses without vaccine failure and a compartment for vaccinated individual with vaccine failure. The model allows to consider any number of different vaccines with different efficacies and delays between doses. Contacts among age groups are modeled by a contact matrix and the contagion matrix is obtained from a probability of contagion p c per contact. The model uses known epidemiological parameters and the time dependent probability p c is obtained by fitting the model output to the series of deaths in each locality, and reflects non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a benchmark the output of the model is compared to two good quality serological surveys, and applied to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of We also estimate the attack rate, the total proportion of cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) with respect to the total population, for all Brazilian states since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the model present here is relevant to assessing present policies not only in Brazil but also in any place where good serological surveys are not available.

Education and risk for acute myocardial infarction in 52 high, middle and low-income countries: INTERHEART case-control study

Objective: To determine the effect of education and other measures of socioeconomic status (SES) on risk ofacute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients and controls from countries with diverse economic circumstances(high, middle, and low income countries). Design: Case-control study.Setting: 52 countries from all inhabited regions of the world.Participants: 12242 cases and 14622 controls. Main outcome measures: First non-fatal AMI. Results: SES was measured using education, familyincome, possessions in the household and occupation. Low levels of education ((8 years) were more commonin cases compared to controls (45.0% and 38.1%; p,0.0001). The odds ratio (OR) for low education adjusted for age, sex and region was 1.56 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.66). After further adjustment for psychosocial, lifestyle, other factors and mutually forother socioeconomic factors, the OR associated with education (8 years was 1.31 (1.20 to 1.44) (p,0.0001). Modifiable lifestyle factors (smoking, exercise, consumption of vegetables and fruits, alcohol and abdominal obesity) explained about half of the socioeconomic gradient. Family income, numbers of possessions and non-professional occupation were only weakly or not at all independently related to AMI. In high-income countries (World Bank Classification), the risk factor adjusted OR associated with low education was 1.61 (1.33 to 1.94), whereas it was substantially lower in lowincome and middle-income countries: 1.25 (1.14 to 1.37) (p for interaction 0.045). Conclusion: Of the SES measures we studied, low education was the marker most consistently associated with increased risk for AMI globally, most markedly in high-income countries.

Cardiac manifestations in oxidative phosphorylation disorders of childhood.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency, type, and severity of cardiac involvement in pediatric patients with oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) disorders. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of clinical and laboratory records of all patients with definitive OXPHOS disorders diagnosed and treated at the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne between 1984 and 2005. RESULTS: Of a total of 89 patients (male:female ratio 1.5:1) 29 (33%) had cardiac involvement: 9 as presenting symptoms, 9 developing on follow-up, and 11 with subclinical cardiac findings. Leigh or Leigh-like syndrome and complex I and combined complex I, III, and IV deficiencies were the most common clinical and laboratory diagnoses, respectively. Clinically symptomatic patients had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (5 patients), dilated cardiomyopathy (4 patients), combined ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction (3 patients), and left ventricular noncompaction (3 patients) at first assessment. A change in the type of cardiomyopathy was noted on follow-up in 2 patients. Conduction and rhythm abnormalities were present in 7 symptomatic patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac assessment in children with OXPHOS disorders may reveal subclinical abnormalities of cardiac function. Patients who present with primary cardiac features have a poor prognosis. OXPHOS disorders should be considered in the differential diagnosis of children presenting with otherwise unexplained cardiomyopathy.

Gaucher disease with pulmonary involvement in a 6-year-old girl: report of resolution of radiographic abnormalities on increasing dose of imiglucerase.

We report resolution of ground-glass appearance in high-resolution computed tomography of chest in a 6-year-old girl who had Gaucher disease with pulmonary involvement. This radiographic abnormality, which developed during the course of enzyme replacement therapy at doses between 20 to 60 U/kg/2 weeks, resolved when the dose was increased to 100 U/kg/2 weeks. This case illustrates the importance of trial of escalating dosage in the face of failure of response at lower doses.

Role of food protein intolerance in infants with persistent distress attributed to reflux esophagitis.

BACKGROUND: Distressed behavior is common in infants and is often attributed to gastroesophageal reflux (GER) or food protein intolerance. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of a hypoallergenic amino acid-based infant formula (AAF) on distressed behavior and GER symptoms in infants who failed to respond to extensively hydrolyzed formula and antireflux medications. STUDY DESIGN: Nineteen distressed infants (9 boys and 10 girls; median age, 5.0 months) with presumed GER underwent gastroscopy (n = 17) and esophageal 24-hour pH monitoring (n = 14). Double-blind placebo-controlled (DBPC) formula challenges of AAF versus previously besttolerated formula were conducted. RESULTS: Nine infants had histologic evidence of esophagitis, and 9 had inflammatory changes in the stomach and/or duodenum. Symptoms remitted in all infants within 2 weeks of the start of feeding with AAF. On DBPC challenge after a median period of 3 months of receiving AAF, 12 infants were intolerant to active formula (distress score, 287 vs 580 min/wk,P =. 01; symptom score, 23.1 vs 36.1, P =.03). Seven infants did not relapse and were considered tolerant (distress score, 470 vs 581, P =.77; symptom score, 29.5 vs 20.2; P =.89). CONCLUSION: Treatment with AAF may reduce distressed behavior and symptoms of GER in infants with food protein intolerance.

Peroxisomal assembly defects: clinical, pathologic, and biochemical findings in two patients in a newly identified complementation group.

We describe the clinical, pathologic, and biochemical findings for two peroxisome-deficient patients in a newly identified complementation group. Both patients had biochemical findings typical of patients with peroxisome biogenesis disorders. However, whereas one patient had the typical clinicopathologic features of Zellweger syndrome, the other patient's phenotype was atypical.

Rhizomelic chondrodysplasia punctata: clinical, pathologic, and biochemical findings in two patients.

The clinical, pathologic, and biochemical features of rhizomelic chondrodysplasia punctata are described in two patients. Although both patients had clinical and radiologic similarities, one patient survived for only 13 days and the other is still alive at 8 years. The most prominent pathologic feature was the marked degenerative change in the chondrocytes from resting cartilage. Fibroblast alkyldihydroxyacetone phosphate synthase activity was markedly reduced in both patients (approximately 10% of control mean); in contrast, dihydroxyacetone phosphate acyltransferase activity was only moderately reduced (50% of control mean). Alkyl and alk-l-enyl ether (plasmalogens) levels were very low in brain and liver. The accumulation of phytanic acid observed in plasma or liver was paralleled by a reduced ability of the patients' fibroblasts to oxidize phytanic acid. Our data indicate that the genetic defect in rhizomelic chondrodysplasia punctata results in abnormalities in two apparently unrelated pathways (i.e., phytanic acid oxidation and ether lipid biosynthesis.