Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States.

Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017-2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006-2025 and 2061-2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017-2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.

Our national nutrient reduction needs: Applying a conservation prioritization framework to US agricultural lands.

Targeted conservation approaches seek to focus resources on areas where they can deliver the greatest benefits and are recognized as key to reducing nonpoint source nutrients from agricultural landscapes into sensitive receiving waters. Moreover, there is growing recognition of the importance and complementarity of in-field and edge-of-field conservation for reaching nutrient reduction goals. Here we provide a generic prioritization that can help with spatial targeting and applied it across the conterminous US (CONUS). The prioritization begins with identifying areas with high agricultural nutrient surplus, i.e., where the most nitrogen (N) and/or phosphorus (P) inputs are left on the landscape after crop harvest. Subwatersheds with high surplus included 52% and 50% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively, and were located predominantly in the Midwest for N, in the South for P, and in California for both N and P. Then we identified the most suitable conservation strategies using a hierarchy of metrics including nutrient use efficiency (proportion of new nutrient inputs removed by crop harvest), tile drainage, existing buffers for agricultural run-off, and wetland restoration potential. In-field nutrient input reduction emerged as a priority because nutrient use efficiency fell below a high but achievable goal of 0.7 (30% of nutrients applied are not utilized) in 45% and 44% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively. In many parts of the southern and western US, in-field conservation (i.e., reducing inputs + preventing nutrients from leaving fields) alone was likely the optimal strategy as agriculture was already well-buffered. However, stacking in-field conservation with additional edge-of-field buffering would be important to conservation strategies in 35% and 29% of CONUS subwatersheds for N and P, respectively. Nutrient use efficiencies were often high enough in the Midwest that proposed strategies focused more on preventing nutrients from leaving fields, managing tile effluent, and buffering agricultural fields. Almost all major river basins would benefit from a variety of nutrient reduction conservation strategies, underscoring the potential of targeted approaches to help limit excess nutrients in surface and ground waters.

Wetland Flowpaths Mediate Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

Eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and human health impacts are critical environmental challenges resulting from excess nitrogen and phosphorus in surface waters. Yet we have limited information regarding how wetland characteristics mediate water quality across watershed scales. We developed a large, novel set of spatial variables characterizing hydrological flowpaths from wetlands to streams, that is, "wetland hydrological transport variables," to explore how wetlands statistically explain the variability in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We found that wetland flowpath variables improved landscape-to-aquatic nutrient multilinear regression models (from R2 = 0.89 to 0.91 for TN; R2 = 0.53 to 0.84 for TP) and provided insights into potential processes governing how wetlands influence watershed-scale TN and TP concentrations. Specifically, flowpath variables describing flow-attenuating environments, for example, subsurface transport compared to overland flowpaths, were related to lower TN and TP concentrations. Frequent hydrological connections from wetlands to streams were also linked to low TP concentrations, which likely suggests a nutrient source limitation in some areas of the UMRB. Consideration of wetland flowpaths could inform management and conservation activities designed to reduce nutrient export to downstream waters.

Identifying invertebrate indicators for streamflow duration assessments in forested headwater streams.

Streamflow-duration assessment methods (SDAMs) are rapid, indicator-based tools for classifying streamflow duration (e.g., intermittent vs perennial flow) at the reach scale. Indicators are easily assessed stream properties used as surrogates of flow duration, which is too resource intensive to measure directly for many reaches. Invertebrates are commonly used as SDAM indicators because many are not highly mobile, and different species have life stages that require flow for different durations and times of the year. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify invertebrate taxa that can be used as SDAM indicators to distinguish between stream reaches having intermittent and perennial flow, 2) to compare indicator strength across different taxonomic and numeric resolutions, and 3) to assess the relative importance of season and habitat type on the ability of invertebrates to predict streamflow-duration class. We used 2 methods, random forest models and indicator species analysis, to analyze aquatic and terrestrial invertebrate data (presence/absence, density, and biomass) at the family and genus levels from 370 samples collected from both erosional and depositional habitats during both wet and dry seasons. In total, 36 intermittent and 53 perennial reaches were sampled along 31 forested headwater streams in 4 level II ecoregions across the United States. Random forest models for family- and genus-level datasets had stream classification accuracy ranging from 88.9 to 93.2%, with slightly higher accuracy for density than for presence/absence and biomass datasets. Season (wet/dry) tended to be a stronger predictor of streamflow-duration class than habitat (erosional/depositional). Many taxa at the family (58.8%) and genus level (61.6%) were collected from both intermittent and perennial reaches, and most taxa that were exclusive to 1 streamflow-duration class were rarely collected. However, 23 family-level or higher taxa (20 aquatic and 3 terrestrial) and 44 aquatic genera were identified as potential indicators of streamflow-duration class for forested headwater streams. The utility of the potential indicators varied across level II ecoregions in part because of representation of intermittent and perennial reaches in the dataset but also because of variable ecological responses to drying among species. Aquatic invertebrates have been an important field indicator of perennial reaches in existing SDAMs, but our findings highlight how including aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates as indicators of intermittent reaches can further maximize the data collected for streamflow-duration classifications.

Mapping global non-floodplain wetlands.

Non-floodplain wetlands - those located outside the floodplains - have emerged as integral components to watershed resilience, contributing hydrologic and biogeochemical functions affecting watershed-scale flooding extent, drought magnitude, and water-quality maintenance. However, the absence of a global dataset of non-floodplain wetlands limits their necessary incorporation into water quality and quantity management decisions and affects wetland-focused wildlife habitat conservation outcomes. We addressed this critical need by developing a publicly available "Global NFW" (Non-Floodplain Wetland) dataset, comprised of a global river-floodplain map at 90 m resolution coupled with a global ensemble wetland map incorporating multiple wetland-focused data layers. The floodplain, wetland, and non-floodplain wetland spatial data developed here were successfully validated within 21 large and heterogenous basins across the conterminous United States. We identified nearly 33 million potential non-floodplain wetlands with an estimated global extent of over 16×106 km2. Non-floodplain wetland pixels comprised 53% of globally identified wetland pixels, meaning the majority of the globe's wetlands likely occur external to river floodplains and coastal habitats. The identified global NFWs were typically small (median 0.039 km2), with a global median size ranging from 0.018-0.138 km2. This novel geospatial Global NFW static dataset advances wetland conservation and resource-management goals while providing a foundation for global non-floodplain wetland functional assessments, facilitating non-floodplain wetland inclusion in hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological model development. The data are freely available through the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Dataset Gateway (https://gaftp.epa.gov/EPADataCommons/ORD/Global_NonFloodplain_Wetlands/, last access: 24 May 2023) and through https://doi.org/10.23719/1528331 (Lane et al., 2023a).

A review of ecosystem services from edge-of-field practices in tile-drained agricultural systems in the United States Corn Belt Region.

Edge-of-field management practices that reduce nutrient pollution from tile drainage while contributing habitat and other ecosystem services are needed to enhance agricultural systems in the US Corn Belt Region. In this review, we identified edge-of-field and catchment scale agricultural conservation practices for intercepting and treating tile drainage. The reviewed conservation practices were (1) controlled drainage, also known as drainage water management (USDA-NRCS Code 554); (2) drainage water recycling (USDA-NRCS Code 447); (3) denitrifying bioreactors (USDA-NRCS Code 605); (4) saturated buffers (USDA-NRCS Code 604); and (5) constructed or restored wetlands designed for water quality improvement (USDA-NRCS Code 656) herein referred to as water quality wetlands. We examined 119 studies that had information on one or more of the following ecosystem services: water retention, water quality improvement (e.g., nitrate, phosphate, sediment, or pesticide retention), wetland habitat (for birds, aquatic organisms, and pollinators), crop yield improvement, and other benefits (e.g., recreation, education, aesthetic appreciation, greenhouse gas retention). We found the five edge-of-field practices were all effective at removing nitrate with varying degrees of other potential benefits and disservices (e.g., greenhouse gas production). Drainage water recycling and water quality wetlands have the potential to provide the most co-benefits as they provide surface water systems for capturing surface flows in addition to tile drainage while also potentially providing habitat and recreation opportunities. However, the following research needs are identified: 1) the disservices and benefits associated with drainage water recycling have not been adequately evaluated; 2) surface flow dynamics are understudied across all reviewed management practices; 3) a complete accounting of phosphorus species and flow pathways for all management practices is needed; 4) field evaluations of the habitat benefit of all management practices are needed; and 5) greenhouse gas dynamics are understudied across all management practices. While all management practices are expected to reduce nitrate loads, addressing these knowledge gaps will help inform holistic management decisions for diverse stakeholders across the US Corn Belt.

Human alterations of the global floodplains 1992-2019.

Floodplains provide critical ecosystem services; however, loss of natural floodplain functions caused by human alterations increase flood risks and lead to massive loss of life and property. Despite recent calls for improved floodplain protection and management, a comprehensive, global-scale assessment quantifying human floodplain alterations does not exist. We developed the first publicly available global dataset that quantifies human alterations in 15 million km2 floodplains along 520 major river basins during the recent 27 years (1992-2019) at 250-m resolution. To maximize the reuse of our dataset and advance the open science of human floodplain alteration, we developed three web-based programming tools supported with tutorials and step-by-step audiovisual instructions. Our data reveal a significant loss of natural floodplains worldwide with 460,000 km2 of new agricultural and 140,000 km2 of new developed areas between 1992 and 2019. This dataset offers critical new insights into how floodplains are being destroyed, which will help decision-makers to reinforce strategies to conserve and restore floodplain functions and habitat.

High-frequency time series comparison of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites for mapping open and vegetated water across the United States (2017-2021).

Frequent observations of surface water at fine spatial scales will provide critical data to support the management of aquatic habitat, flood risk and water quality. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites can provide such observations, but algorithms are still needed that perform well across diverse climate and vegetation conditions. We developed surface inundation algorithms for Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, respectively, at 12 sites across the conterminous United States (CONUS), covering a total of >536,000 km2 and representing diverse hydrologic and vegetation landscapes. Each scene in the 5-year (2017-2021) time series was classified into open water, vegetated water, and non-water at 20 m resolution using variables from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, as well as variables derived from topographic and weather datasets. The Sentinel-1 algorithm was developed distinct from the Sentinel-2 model to explore if and where the two time series could potentially be integrated into a single high-frequency time series. Within each model, open water and vegetated water (vegetated palustrine, lacustrine, and riverine wetlands) classes were mapped. The models were validated using imagery from WorldView and PlanetScope. Classification accuracy for open water was high across the 5-year period, with an omission and commission error of only 3.1% and 0.9% for the Sentinel-1 algorithm and 3.1% and 0.5% for the Sentinel-2 algorithm, respectively. Vegetated water accuracy was lower, as expected given that the class represents mixed pixels. The Sentinel-2 algorithm showed higher accuracy (10.7% omission and 7.9% commission error) relative to the Sentinel-1 algorithm (28.4% omission and 16.0% commission error). Patterns over time in the proportion of area mapped as open or vegetated water by the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 algorithms were charted and correlated for a subset of all 12 sites. Our results showed that the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 algorithm open water time series can be integrated at all 12 sites to improve the temporal resolution, but sensor-specific differences, such as sensitivity to vegetation structure versus pixel color, complicate the data integration for mixed-pixel, vegetated water. The methods developed here provide inundation at 5-day (Sentinel-2 algorithm) and 12-day (Sentinel-1 algorithm) time steps to improve our understanding of the short- and long-term response of surface water to climate and land use drivers in different ecoregions.

National hydrologic connectivity classification links wetlands with stream water quality.

Wetland hydrologic connections to downstream waters influence stream water quality. However, no systematic approach for characterizing this connectivity exists. Here using physical principles, we categorized conterminous US freshwater wetlands into four hydrologic connectivity classes based on stream contact and flowpath depth to the nearest stream: riparian, non-riparian shallow, non-riparian mid-depth and non-riparian deep. These classes were heterogeneously distributed over the conterminous United States; for example, riparian dominated the south-eastern and Gulf coasts, while non-riparian deep dominated the Upper Midwest and High Plains. Analysis of a national stream dataset indicated acidification and organic matter brownification increased with connectivity. Eutrophication and sedimentation decreased with wetland area but did not respond to connectivity. This classification advances our mechanistic understanding of wetland influences on water quality nationally and could be applied globally.

River Basin Simulations Reveal Wide-Ranging Wetland-Mediated Nitrate Reductions.

River basin-scale wetland restoration and creation is a primary management option for mitigating nitrogen-based water quality challenges. However, the magnitude of nitrogen reduction that will result from adding wetlands across large river basins is uncertain, partly because the areal extent, location, and physical and functional characteristics of the wetlands are unknown. We simulated over 3600 wetland restoration scenarios across the ∼450,000 km2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) depicting varied assumptions for wetland areal extent, physical and functional characteristics, and placement strategy. These simulations indicated that restoring wetlands will reduce local nitrate yields and nitrate loads at the UMRB outlet. However, the projected magnitude of nitrate reduction varied widely across disparate scenario assumptions─e.g., restoring 4500 km2 of wetlands (i.e., 1% of UMRB area) decreased mean annual nitrate loads at the UMRB outlet between 3 and 42%. Higher magnitude nitrate reductions correlated with best-case assumptions, particularly for characteristics controlling nitrate loading rates to the wetlands. These results show that simplified claims about basin-scale wetland-mediated water quality improvements discount the breadth of possible wetland impacts across disparate wetland physical and functional conditions and highlight a need for greater clarity regarding the likelihood of these conditions at river basin scales.

Advancing Watershed Legacy Nitrogen Modeling to Improve Global Water Quality.

Despite widespread implementation of watershed nitrogen reduction programs across the globe, nitrogen levels in many surface waters remain high. Watershed legacy nitrogen storage, i.e., the long-term retention of nitrogen in soils and groundwater, is one of several explanations for this lack of progress. However scientists and water managers are ill-equipped to estimate how legacy nitrogen moderates in-stream nitrogen responses to land conservation practices, largely because modeling tools and associated long-term monitoring approaches to answering these questions remain inadequate. We demonstrate the need for improved watershed models to simulate legacy nitrogen processes and offer modeling solutions to support long-term nitrogen-based sustainable land management across the globe.

Potential of water quality wetlands to mitigate habitat losses from agricultural drainage modernization.

Given widespread biodiversity declines, a growing global human population, and demands to improve water quality, there is an immediate need to explore land management solutions that support multiple ecosystem services. Agricultural water quality wetlands designed to provide both water quality benefits and wetland and grassland habitat are an emerging restoration solution that may reverse habitat declines in intensive agricultural areas. Installation of water quality wetlands in the Upper Midwest, USA, when considered alongside the repair and modification of aging agricultural tile drainage infrastructure, is a likely scenario that may mitigate nutrient pollution exported from agricultural systems and improve crop yields. The capacity of water quality wetlands to provide habitat within the wetland pool and the surrounding grassland is not well-studied, particularly with respect to potential habitat changes resulting from drainage infrastructure upgrades. For the current study, we produced spatially explicit models of 37 catchments distributed throughout an important region for agriculture and biodiversity, the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa. Four scenarios were considered - with and without improved drainage and with and without water quality wetlands - to estimate the net potential habitat implications of these scenarios for amphibians, grassland birds, and wild bees. Model results indicate that drainage modification alone will likely result in moderate direct losses of suitable amphibian habitat and large declines in overall habitat quality. However, inclusion of water quality wetlands at the catchment scale may mitigate these amphibian habitat losses while also increasing grassland bird and pollinator habitat. The impacts of water quality wetlands and drainage modernization on waterfowl in the region require additional study.

Vulnerable Waters are Essential to Watershed Resilience.

Watershed resilience is the ability of a watershed to maintain its characteristic system state while concurrently resisting, adapting to, and reorganizing after hydrological (for example, drought, flooding) or biogeochemical (for example, excessive nutrient) disturbances. Vulnerable waters include non-floodplain wetlands and headwater streams, abundant watershed components representing the most distal extent of the freshwater aquatic network. Vulnerable waters are hydrologically dynamic and biogeochemically reactive aquatic systems, storing, processing, and releasing water and entrained (that is, dissolved and particulate) materials along expanding and contracting aquatic networks. The hydrological and biogeochemical functions emerging from these processes affect the magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, storage, and rate of change of material and energy fluxes among watershed components and to downstream waters, thereby maintaining watershed states and imparting watershed resilience. We present here a conceptual framework for understanding how vulnerable waters confer watershed resilience. We demonstrate how individual and cumulative vulnerable-water modifications (for example, reduced extent, altered connectivity) affect watershed-scale hydrological and biogeochemical disturbance response and recovery, which decreases watershed resilience and can trigger transitions across thresholds to alternative watershed states (for example, states conducive to increased flood frequency or nutrient concentrations). We subsequently describe how resilient watersheds require spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in hydrological and biogeochemical interactions between terrestrial systems and down-gradient waters, which necessitates attention to the conservation and restoration of vulnerable waters and their downstream connectivity gradients. To conclude, we provide actionable principles for resilient watersheds and articulate research needs to further watershed resilience science and vulnerable-water management.

Headwater streams and inland wetlands: Status and advancements of geospatial datasets and maps across the United States.

Headwater streams and inland wetlands provide essential functions that support healthy watersheds and downstream waters. However, scientists and aquatic resource managers lack a comprehensive synthesis of national and state stream and wetland geospatial datasets and emerging technologies that can further improve these data. We conducted a review of existing United States (US) federal and state stream and wetland geospatial datasets, focusing on their spatial extent, permanence classifications, and current limitations. We also examined recent peer-reviewed literature for emerging methods that can potentially improve the estimation, representation, and integration of stream and wetland datasets. We found that federal and state datasets rely heavily on the US Geological Survey's National Hydrography Dataset for stream extent and duration information. Only eleven states (22%) had additional stream extent information and seven states (14%) provided additional duration information. Likewise, federal and state wetland datasets primarily use the US Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Geospatial Dataset, with only two states using non-NWI datasets. Our synthesis revealed that LiDAR-based technologies hold promise for advancing stream and wetland mapping at limited spatial extents. While machine learning techniques may help to scale-up these LiDAR-derived estimates, challenges related to preprocessing and data workflows remain. High-resolution commercial imagery, supported by public imagery and cloud computing, may further aid characterization of the spatial and temporal dynamics of streams and wetlands, especially using multi-platform and multi-temporal machine learning approaches. Models integrating both stream and wetland dynamics are limited, and field-based efforts must remain a key component in developing improved headwater stream and wetland datasets. Continued financial and partnership support of existing databases is also needed to enhance mapping and inform water resources research and policy decisions.

Wetland restoration yields dynamic nitrate responses across the Upper Mississippi river basin.

Wetland restoration is a primary management option for removing surplus nitrogen draining from agricultural landscapes. However, wetland capacity to mitigate nitrogen losses at large river-basin scales remains uncertain. This is largely due to a limited number of studies that address the cumulative and dynamic effects of restored wetlands across the landscape on downstream nutrient conditions. We analyzed wetland restoration impacts on modeled nitrate dynamics across 279 subbasins comprising the ∼0.5 million km2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), USA, which covers eight states and houses ∼30 million people. Restoring ∼8,000 km2 of wetlands will reduce mean annual nitrate loads to the UMRB outlet by 12%, a substantial improvement over existing conditions but markedly less than widely cited estimates. Our lower wetland efficacy estimates are partly attributed to improved representation of processes not considered by preceding empirical studies - namely the potential for nitrate to bypass wetlands (i.e., via subsurface tile drainage) and be stored or transformed within the river network itself. Our novel findings reveal that wetlands mitigate surplus nitrogen basin-wide, yet they may not be as universally effective in tiled landscapes and because of river network processing.

The changing face of floodplains in the Mississippi River Basin detected by a 60-year land use change dataset.

Floodplains provide essential ecosystem functions, yet >80% of European and North American floodplains are substantially modified. Despite floodplain changes over the past century, comprehensive, long-term land use change data within large river basin floodplains are limited. Long-term land use data can be used to quantify floodplain functions and provide spatially explicit information for management, restoration, and flood-risk mitigation. We present a comprehensive dataset quantifying floodplain land use change along the 3.3 million km2 Mississippi River Basin (MRB) covering 60 years (1941-2000) at 250-m resolution. We developed four unique products as part of this work, a(n): (i) Google Earth Engine interactive map visualization interface, (ii) Python code that runs in any internet browser, (iii) online tutorial with visualizations facilitating classroom code application, and (iv) instructional video demonstrating code application and database reproduction. Our data show that MRB's natural floodplain ecosystems have been substantially altered to agricultural and developed land uses. These products will support MRB resilience and sustainability goals by advancing data-driven decision making on floodplain restoration, buyout, and conservation scenarios.

Isolating Anthropogenic Wetland Loss by Concurrently Tracking Inundation and Land Cover Disturbance across the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S.

Global trends in wetland degradation and loss have created an urgency to monitor wetland extent, as well as track the distribution and causes of wetland loss. Satellite imagery can be used to monitor wetlands over time, but few efforts have attempted to distinguish anthropogenic wetland loss from climate-driven variability in wetland extent. We present an approach to concurrently track land cover disturbance and inundation extent across the Mid-Atlantic region, United States, using the Landsat archive in Google Earth Engine. Disturbance was identified as a change in greenness, using a harmonic linear regression approach, or as a change in growing season brightness. Inundation extent was mapped using a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey's Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) algorithm. Annual (2015-2018) disturbance averaged 0.32% (1095 km2 year-1) of the study area per year and was most common in forested areas. While inundation extent showed substantial interannual variability, the co-occurrence of disturbance and declines in inundation extent represented a minority of both change types, totaling 109 km2 over the four-year period, and 186 km2, using the National Wetland Inventory dataset in place of the Landsat-derived inundation extent. When the annual products were evaluated with permitted wetland and stream fill points, 95% of the fill points were detected, with most found by the disturbance product (89%) and fewer found by the inundation decline product (25%). The results suggest that mapping inundation alone is unlikely to be adequate to find and track anthropogenic wetland loss. Alternatively, remotely tracking both disturbance and inundation can potentially focus efforts to protect, manage, and restore wetlands.

Land-Cover Changes to Surface-Water Buffers in the Midwestern USA: 25 Years of Landsat Data Analyses (1993-2017).

To understand the timing, extent, and magnitude of land use/land cover (LULC) change in buffer areas surrounding Midwestern US waters, we analyzed the full imagery archive (1982-2017) of three Landsat footprints covering ~100,000 km2. The study area included urbanizing Chicago, Illinois and St. Louis, Missouri regions and agriculturally dominated landscapes (i.e., Peoria, Illinois). The Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm identified 1993-2017 LULC change across three Landsat footprints and in 90 m buffers for ~110,000 surface waters; waters were also size-binned into five groups for buffer LULC change analyses. Importantly, buffer-area LULC change magnitude was frequently much greater than footprint-level change. Surface-water extent in buffers increased by 14-35x the footprint rate and forest decreased by 2-9x. Development in buffering areas increased by 2-4x the footprint-rate in Chicago and Peoria area footprints but was similar to the change rate in the St. Louis area footprint. The LULC buffer-area change varied in waterbody size, with the greatest change typically occurring in the smallest waters (e.g., <0.1 ha). These novel analyses suggest that surface-water buffer LULC change is occurring more rapidly than footprint-level change, likely modifying the hydrology, water quality, and biotic integrity of existing water resources, as well as potentially affecting down-gradient, watershed-scale storages and flows of water, solutes, and particulate matter.

Differing Modes of Biotic Connectivity within Freshwater Ecosystem Mosaics.

We describe a collection of aquatic and wetland habitats in an inland landscape, and their occurrence within a terrestrial matrix, as a "freshwater ecosystem mosaic" (FEM). Aquatic and wetland habitats in any FEM can vary widely, from permanently ponded lakes, to ephemerally ponded wetlands, to groundwater-fed springs, to flowing rivers and streams. The terrestrial matrix can also vary, including in its influence on flows of energy, materials, and organisms among ecosystems. Biota occurring in a specific region are adapted to the unique opportunities and challenges presented by spatial and temporal patterns of habitat types inherent to each FEM. To persist in any given landscape, most species move to recolonize habitats and maintain mixtures of genetic materials. Species also connect habitats through time if they possess needed morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits to persist in a habitat through periods of unfavorable environmental conditions. By examining key spatial and temporal patterns underlying FEMs, and species-specific adaptations to these patterns, a better understanding of the structural and functional connectivity of a landscape can be obtained. Fully including aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial habitats in FEMs facilitates adoption of the next generation of individual-based models that integrate the principles of population, community, and ecosystem ecology.

Non-floodplain Wetlands Affect Watershed Nutrient Dynamics: A Critical Review.

Wetlands have the capacity to retain nitrogen and phosphorus and are thereby often considered a viable option for improving water quality at local scales. However, little is known about the cumulative influence of wetlands outside of floodplains, i.e., non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs), on surface water quality at watershed scales. Such evidence is important to meet global, national, regional, and local water quality goals effectively and comprehensively. In this critical review, we synthesize the state of the science about the watershed-scale effects of NFWs on nutrient-based (nitrogen, phosphorus) water quality. We further highlight where knowledge is limited in this research area and the challenges of garnering this information. On the basis of previous wetland literature, we develop emerging concepts that assist in advancing the science linking NFWs to watershed-scale nutrient conditions. Finally, we ask, "Where do we go from here?" We address this question using a 2-fold approach. First, we demonstrate, via example model simulations, how explicitly considering NFWs in watershed nutrient modeling changes predicted nutrient yields to receiving waters-and how this may potentially affect future water quality management decisions. Second, we outline research recommendations that will improve our scientific understanding of how NFWs affect downstream water quality.