Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States.

Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017-2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006-2025 and 2061-2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017-2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.

Mapping global non-floodplain wetlands.

Non-floodplain wetlands - those located outside the floodplains - have emerged as integral components to watershed resilience, contributing hydrologic and biogeochemical functions affecting watershed-scale flooding extent, drought magnitude, and water-quality maintenance. However, the absence of a global dataset of non-floodplain wetlands limits their necessary incorporation into water quality and quantity management decisions and affects wetland-focused wildlife habitat conservation outcomes. We addressed this critical need by developing a publicly available "Global NFW" (Non-Floodplain Wetland) dataset, comprised of a global river-floodplain map at 90 m resolution coupled with a global ensemble wetland map incorporating multiple wetland-focused data layers. The floodplain, wetland, and non-floodplain wetland spatial data developed here were successfully validated within 21 large and heterogenous basins across the conterminous United States. We identified nearly 33 million potential non-floodplain wetlands with an estimated global extent of over 16×106 km2. Non-floodplain wetland pixels comprised 53% of globally identified wetland pixels, meaning the majority of the globe's wetlands likely occur external to river floodplains and coastal habitats. The identified global NFWs were typically small (median 0.039 km2), with a global median size ranging from 0.018-0.138 km2. This novel geospatial Global NFW static dataset advances wetland conservation and resource-management goals while providing a foundation for global non-floodplain wetland functional assessments, facilitating non-floodplain wetland inclusion in hydrological, biogeochemical, and biological model development. The data are freely available through the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Dataset Gateway (https://gaftp.epa.gov/EPADataCommons/ORD/Global_NonFloodplain_Wetlands/, last access: 24 May 2023) and through https://doi.org/10.23719/1528331 (Lane et al., 2023a).

Identifying invertebrate indicators for streamflow duration assessments in forested headwater streams.

Streamflow-duration assessment methods (SDAMs) are rapid, indicator-based tools for classifying streamflow duration (e.g., intermittent vs perennial flow) at the reach scale. Indicators are easily assessed stream properties used as surrogates of flow duration, which is too resource intensive to measure directly for many reaches. Invertebrates are commonly used as SDAM indicators because many are not highly mobile, and different species have life stages that require flow for different durations and times of the year. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify invertebrate taxa that can be used as SDAM indicators to distinguish between stream reaches having intermittent and perennial flow, 2) to compare indicator strength across different taxonomic and numeric resolutions, and 3) to assess the relative importance of season and habitat type on the ability of invertebrates to predict streamflow-duration class. We used 2 methods, random forest models and indicator species analysis, to analyze aquatic and terrestrial invertebrate data (presence/absence, density, and biomass) at the family and genus levels from 370 samples collected from both erosional and depositional habitats during both wet and dry seasons. In total, 36 intermittent and 53 perennial reaches were sampled along 31 forested headwater streams in 4 level II ecoregions across the United States. Random forest models for family- and genus-level datasets had stream classification accuracy ranging from 88.9 to 93.2%, with slightly higher accuracy for density than for presence/absence and biomass datasets. Season (wet/dry) tended to be a stronger predictor of streamflow-duration class than habitat (erosional/depositional). Many taxa at the family (58.8%) and genus level (61.6%) were collected from both intermittent and perennial reaches, and most taxa that were exclusive to 1 streamflow-duration class were rarely collected. However, 23 family-level or higher taxa (20 aquatic and 3 terrestrial) and 44 aquatic genera were identified as potential indicators of streamflow-duration class for forested headwater streams. The utility of the potential indicators varied across level II ecoregions in part because of representation of intermittent and perennial reaches in the dataset but also because of variable ecological responses to drying among species. Aquatic invertebrates have been an important field indicator of perennial reaches in existing SDAMs, but our findings highlight how including aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates as indicators of intermittent reaches can further maximize the data collected for streamflow-duration classifications.

Human alterations of the global floodplains 1992-2019.

Floodplains provide critical ecosystem services; however, loss of natural floodplain functions caused by human alterations increase flood risks and lead to massive loss of life and property. Despite recent calls for improved floodplain protection and management, a comprehensive, global-scale assessment quantifying human floodplain alterations does not exist. We developed the first publicly available global dataset that quantifies human alterations in 15 million km2 floodplains along 520 major river basins during the recent 27 years (1992-2019) at 250-m resolution. To maximize the reuse of our dataset and advance the open science of human floodplain alteration, we developed three web-based programming tools supported with tutorials and step-by-step audiovisual instructions. Our data reveal a significant loss of natural floodplains worldwide with 460,000 km2 of new agricultural and 140,000 km2 of new developed areas between 1992 and 2019. This dataset offers critical new insights into how floodplains are being destroyed, which will help decision-makers to reinforce strategies to conserve and restore floodplain functions and habitat.

National hydrologic connectivity classification links wetlands with stream water quality.

Wetland hydrologic connections to downstream waters influence stream water quality. However, no systematic approach for characterizing this connectivity exists. Here using physical principles, we categorized conterminous US freshwater wetlands into four hydrologic connectivity classes based on stream contact and flowpath depth to the nearest stream: riparian, non-riparian shallow, non-riparian mid-depth and non-riparian deep. These classes were heterogeneously distributed over the conterminous United States; for example, riparian dominated the south-eastern and Gulf coasts, while non-riparian deep dominated the Upper Midwest and High Plains. Analysis of a national stream dataset indicated acidification and organic matter brownification increased with connectivity. Eutrophication and sedimentation decreased with wetland area but did not respond to connectivity. This classification advances our mechanistic understanding of wetland influences on water quality nationally and could be applied globally.

River Basin Simulations Reveal Wide-Ranging Wetland-Mediated Nitrate Reductions.

River basin-scale wetland restoration and creation is a primary management option for mitigating nitrogen-based water quality challenges. However, the magnitude of nitrogen reduction that will result from adding wetlands across large river basins is uncertain, partly because the areal extent, location, and physical and functional characteristics of the wetlands are unknown. We simulated over 3600 wetland restoration scenarios across the ∼450,000 km2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) depicting varied assumptions for wetland areal extent, physical and functional characteristics, and placement strategy. These simulations indicated that restoring wetlands will reduce local nitrate yields and nitrate loads at the UMRB outlet. However, the projected magnitude of nitrate reduction varied widely across disparate scenario assumptions─e.g., restoring 4500 km2 of wetlands (i.e., 1% of UMRB area) decreased mean annual nitrate loads at the UMRB outlet between 3 and 42%. Higher magnitude nitrate reductions correlated with best-case assumptions, particularly for characteristics controlling nitrate loading rates to the wetlands. These results show that simplified claims about basin-scale wetland-mediated water quality improvements discount the breadth of possible wetland impacts across disparate wetland physical and functional conditions and highlight a need for greater clarity regarding the likelihood of these conditions at river basin scales.

Advancing Watershed Legacy Nitrogen Modeling to Improve Global Water Quality.

Despite widespread implementation of watershed nitrogen reduction programs across the globe, nitrogen levels in many surface waters remain high. Watershed legacy nitrogen storage, i.e., the long-term retention of nitrogen in soils and groundwater, is one of several explanations for this lack of progress. However scientists and water managers are ill-equipped to estimate how legacy nitrogen moderates in-stream nitrogen responses to land conservation practices, largely because modeling tools and associated long-term monitoring approaches to answering these questions remain inadequate. We demonstrate the need for improved watershed models to simulate legacy nitrogen processes and offer modeling solutions to support long-term nitrogen-based sustainable land management across the globe.

Vulnerable Waters are Essential to Watershed Resilience.

Watershed resilience is the ability of a watershed to maintain its characteristic system state while concurrently resisting, adapting to, and reorganizing after hydrological (for example, drought, flooding) or biogeochemical (for example, excessive nutrient) disturbances. Vulnerable waters include non-floodplain wetlands and headwater streams, abundant watershed components representing the most distal extent of the freshwater aquatic network. Vulnerable waters are hydrologically dynamic and biogeochemically reactive aquatic systems, storing, processing, and releasing water and entrained (that is, dissolved and particulate) materials along expanding and contracting aquatic networks. The hydrological and biogeochemical functions emerging from these processes affect the magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, storage, and rate of change of material and energy fluxes among watershed components and to downstream waters, thereby maintaining watershed states and imparting watershed resilience. We present here a conceptual framework for understanding how vulnerable waters confer watershed resilience. We demonstrate how individual and cumulative vulnerable-water modifications (for example, reduced extent, altered connectivity) affect watershed-scale hydrological and biogeochemical disturbance response and recovery, which decreases watershed resilience and can trigger transitions across thresholds to alternative watershed states (for example, states conducive to increased flood frequency or nutrient concentrations). We subsequently describe how resilient watersheds require spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in hydrological and biogeochemical interactions between terrestrial systems and down-gradient waters, which necessitates attention to the conservation and restoration of vulnerable waters and their downstream connectivity gradients. To conclude, we provide actionable principles for resilient watersheds and articulate research needs to further watershed resilience science and vulnerable-water management.

Headwater streams and inland wetlands: Status and advancements of geospatial datasets and maps across the United States.

Headwater streams and inland wetlands provide essential functions that support healthy watersheds and downstream waters. However, scientists and aquatic resource managers lack a comprehensive synthesis of national and state stream and wetland geospatial datasets and emerging technologies that can further improve these data. We conducted a review of existing United States (US) federal and state stream and wetland geospatial datasets, focusing on their spatial extent, permanence classifications, and current limitations. We also examined recent peer-reviewed literature for emerging methods that can potentially improve the estimation, representation, and integration of stream and wetland datasets. We found that federal and state datasets rely heavily on the US Geological Survey's National Hydrography Dataset for stream extent and duration information. Only eleven states (22%) had additional stream extent information and seven states (14%) provided additional duration information. Likewise, federal and state wetland datasets primarily use the US Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Geospatial Dataset, with only two states using non-NWI datasets. Our synthesis revealed that LiDAR-based technologies hold promise for advancing stream and wetland mapping at limited spatial extents. While machine learning techniques may help to scale-up these LiDAR-derived estimates, challenges related to preprocessing and data workflows remain. High-resolution commercial imagery, supported by public imagery and cloud computing, may further aid characterization of the spatial and temporal dynamics of streams and wetlands, especially using multi-platform and multi-temporal machine learning approaches. Models integrating both stream and wetland dynamics are limited, and field-based efforts must remain a key component in developing improved headwater stream and wetland datasets. Continued financial and partnership support of existing databases is also needed to enhance mapping and inform water resources research and policy decisions.

Wetland restoration yields dynamic nitrate responses across the Upper Mississippi river basin.

Wetland restoration is a primary management option for removing surplus nitrogen draining from agricultural landscapes. However, wetland capacity to mitigate nitrogen losses at large river-basin scales remains uncertain. This is largely due to a limited number of studies that address the cumulative and dynamic effects of restored wetlands across the landscape on downstream nutrient conditions. We analyzed wetland restoration impacts on modeled nitrate dynamics across 279 subbasins comprising the ∼0.5 million km2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), USA, which covers eight states and houses ∼30 million people. Restoring ∼8,000 km2 of wetlands will reduce mean annual nitrate loads to the UMRB outlet by 12%, a substantial improvement over existing conditions but markedly less than widely cited estimates. Our lower wetland efficacy estimates are partly attributed to improved representation of processes not considered by preceding empirical studies - namely the potential for nitrate to bypass wetlands (i.e., via subsurface tile drainage) and be stored or transformed within the river network itself. Our novel findings reveal that wetlands mitigate surplus nitrogen basin-wide, yet they may not be as universally effective in tiled landscapes and because of river network processing.

The changing face of floodplains in the Mississippi River Basin detected by a 60-year land use change dataset.

Floodplains provide essential ecosystem functions, yet >80% of European and North American floodplains are substantially modified. Despite floodplain changes over the past century, comprehensive, long-term land use change data within large river basin floodplains are limited. Long-term land use data can be used to quantify floodplain functions and provide spatially explicit information for management, restoration, and flood-risk mitigation. We present a comprehensive dataset quantifying floodplain land use change along the 3.3 million km2 Mississippi River Basin (MRB) covering 60 years (1941-2000) at 250-m resolution. We developed four unique products as part of this work, a(n): (i) Google Earth Engine interactive map visualization interface, (ii) Python code that runs in any internet browser, (iii) online tutorial with visualizations facilitating classroom code application, and (iv) instructional video demonstrating code application and database reproduction. Our data show that MRB's natural floodplain ecosystems have been substantially altered to agricultural and developed land uses. These products will support MRB resilience and sustainability goals by advancing data-driven decision making on floodplain restoration, buyout, and conservation scenarios.

Differing Modes of Biotic Connectivity within Freshwater Ecosystem Mosaics.

We describe a collection of aquatic and wetland habitats in an inland landscape, and their occurrence within a terrestrial matrix, as a "freshwater ecosystem mosaic" (FEM). Aquatic and wetland habitats in any FEM can vary widely, from permanently ponded lakes, to ephemerally ponded wetlands, to groundwater-fed springs, to flowing rivers and streams. The terrestrial matrix can also vary, including in its influence on flows of energy, materials, and organisms among ecosystems. Biota occurring in a specific region are adapted to the unique opportunities and challenges presented by spatial and temporal patterns of habitat types inherent to each FEM. To persist in any given landscape, most species move to recolonize habitats and maintain mixtures of genetic materials. Species also connect habitats through time if they possess needed morphological, physiological, or behavioral traits to persist in a habitat through periods of unfavorable environmental conditions. By examining key spatial and temporal patterns underlying FEMs, and species-specific adaptations to these patterns, a better understanding of the structural and functional connectivity of a landscape can be obtained. Fully including aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial habitats in FEMs facilitates adoption of the next generation of individual-based models that integrate the principles of population, community, and ecosystem ecology.

Non-floodplain Wetlands Affect Watershed Nutrient Dynamics: A Critical Review.

Wetlands have the capacity to retain nitrogen and phosphorus and are thereby often considered a viable option for improving water quality at local scales. However, little is known about the cumulative influence of wetlands outside of floodplains, i.e., non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs), on surface water quality at watershed scales. Such evidence is important to meet global, national, regional, and local water quality goals effectively and comprehensively. In this critical review, we synthesize the state of the science about the watershed-scale effects of NFWs on nutrient-based (nitrogen, phosphorus) water quality. We further highlight where knowledge is limited in this research area and the challenges of garnering this information. On the basis of previous wetland literature, we develop emerging concepts that assist in advancing the science linking NFWs to watershed-scale nutrient conditions. Finally, we ask, "Where do we go from here?" We address this question using a 2-fold approach. First, we demonstrate, via example model simulations, how explicitly considering NFWs in watershed nutrient modeling changes predicted nutrient yields to receiving waters-and how this may potentially affect future water quality management decisions. Second, we outline research recommendations that will improve our scientific understanding of how NFWs affect downstream water quality.

Influence of multi-decadal land use, irrigation practices and climate on riparian corridors across the Upper Missouri River headwaters basin, Montana.

The Upper Missouri River headwaters (UMH) basin (36 400 km2) depends on its river corridors to support irrigated agriculture and world-class trout fisheries. We evaluated trends (1984-2016) in riparian wetness, an indicator of the riparian condition, in peak irrigation months (June, July and August) for 158 km2 of riparian area across the basin using the Landsat normalized difference wetness index (NDWI). We found that 8 of the 19 riparian reaches across the basin showed a significant drying trend over this period, including all three basin outlet reaches along the Jefferson, Madison and Gallatin rivers. The influence of upstream climate was quantified using per reach random forest regressions. Much of the interannual variability in the NDWI was explained by climate, especially by drought indices and annual precipitation, but the significant temporal drying trends persisted in the NDWI-climate model residuals, indicating that trends were not entirely attributable to climate. Over the same period we documented a basin-wide shift from 9 % of agriculture irrigated with center-pivot irrigation to 50 % irrigated with center-pivot irrigation. Riparian reaches with a drying trend had a greater increase in the total area with center-pivot irrigation (within reach and upstream from the reach) relative to riparian reaches without such a trend (p < 0.05). The drying trend, however, did not extend to river discharge. Over the same period, stream gages (n = 7) showed a positive correlation with riparian wetness (p < 0.05) but no trend in summer river discharge, suggesting that riparian areas may be more sensitive to changes in irrigation return flows relative to river discharge. Identifying trends in riparian vegetation is a critical precursor for enhancing the resiliency of river systems and associated riparian corridors.

Efficient Delineation of Nested Depression Hierarchy in Digital Elevation Models for Hydrological Analysis Using Level-Set Methods.

In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill-merge-spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level-set method based on graph theory. The proposed level-set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level-set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine-resolution Light Detection and Ranging-derived DEMs show that the raster-based level-set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector-based contour tree method. The proposed level-set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large-scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling.

Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions.

Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands - especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) - remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed-scale effects. The integration of measurements and models can supply this information. However, the types of measurements and models that should be integrated are dependent on management questions and information compatibility. We summarize the importance of GIWs in watersheds and discuss what wetland connectivity means in both science and management contexts. We then describe the latest tools available to quantify GIW connectivity and explore crucial next steps to enhancing and integrating such tools. These advancements will ensure that appropriate tools are used in GIW decision making and maintaining the important ecosystem services that these wetlands support.

Patterns and drivers for wetland connections in the Prairie Pothole Region, United States.

Ecosystem function in rivers, lakes and coastal waters depends on the functioning of upstream aquatic ecosystems, necessitating an improved understanding of watershed-scale interactions including variable surface-water flows between wetlands and streams. As surface water in the Prairie Pothole Region expands in wet years, surface-water connections occur between many depressional wetlands and streams. Minimal research has explored the spatial patterns and drivers for the abundance of these connections, despite their potential to inform resource management and regulatory programs including the U.S. Clean Water Act. In this study, wetlands were identified that did not intersect the stream network, but were shown with Landsat images (1990-2011) to become merged with the stream network as surface water expanded. Wetlands were found to spill into or consolidate with other wetlands within both small (2-10 wetlands) and large (>100 wetlands) wetland clusters, eventually intersecting a stream channel, most often via a riparian wetland. These surface-water connections occurred over a wide range of wetland distances from streams (averaging 90-1400 m in different ecoregions). Differences in the spatial abundance of wetlands that show a variable surface-water connection to a stream were best explained by smaller wetland-to-wetland distances, greater wetland abundance, and maximum surface-water extent. This analysis demonstrated that wetland arrangement and surface water expansion are important mechanisms for depressional wetlands to connect to streams and provides a first step to understanding the frequency and abundance of these surface-water connections across the Prairie Pothole Region.

Enhancing protection for vulnerable waters.

Governments worldwide do not adequately protect their limited freshwater systems and therefore place freshwater functions and attendant ecosystem services at risk. The best available scientific evidence compels enhanced protections for freshwater systems, especially for impermanent streams and wetlands outside of floodplains that are particularly vulnerable to alteration or destruction. New approaches to freshwater sustainability - implemented through scientifically informed adaptive management - are required to protect freshwater systems through periods of changing societal needs. One such approach introduced in the US in 2015 is the Clean Water Rule, which clarified the jurisdictional scope for federally protected waters. However, within hours of its implementation litigants convinced the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit to stay the rule, and the subsequently elected administration has now placed it under review for potential revision or rescission. Regardless of its outcome at the federal level, policy and management discussions initiated by the propagation of this rare rulemaking event have potential far-reaching implications at all levels of government across the US and worldwide. At this timely juncture, we provide a scientific rationale and three policy options for all levels of government to meaningfully enhance protection of these vulnerable waters. A fourth option, a 'do-nothing' approach, is wholly inconsistent with the well-established scientific evidence of the importance of these vulnerable waters.

Building a potential wetland restoration indicator for the contiguous United States.

Wetlands provide key functions in the landscape from improving water quality, to regulating flows, to providing wildlife habitat. Over half of the wetlands in the contiguous United States (CONUS) have been converted to agricultural and urban land uses. However, over the last several decades, research has shown the benefits of wetlands to hydrologic, chemical, biological processes, spurring the creation of government programs and private initiatives to restore wetlands. Initiatives tend to focus on individual wetland creation, yet the greatest benefits are achieved when strategic restoration planning occurs across a watershed or multiple watersheds. For watershed-level wetland restoration planning to occur, informative data layers on potential wetland areas are needed. We created an indicator of potential wetland areas (PWA), using nationally available datasets to identify characteristics that could support wetland ecosystems, including: poorly drained soils and low-relief landscape positions as indicated by a derived topographic data layer. We compared our PWA with the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) from 11 states throughout the CONUS to evaluate their alignment. The state-level percentage of NWI-designated wetlands directly overlapping the PWA ranged from 39 to 95%. When we included NWI that was immediately adjacent to the overlapping NWI, our range of correspondence to NWI ranged from 60 to 99%. Wetland restoration is more likely on certain landscapes (e.g., agriculture) than others due to the lack of substantive infrastructure and the potential for the restoration of hydrology; therefore, we combined the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) with the PWA to identify potentially restorable wetlands on agricultural land (PRW-Ag). The PRW-Ag identified a total of over 46 million ha with the potential to support wetlands. The largest concentrations of PRW-Ag occurred in the glaciated corn belt of the upper Mississippi River from Ohio to the Dakotas and in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The PRW-Ag layer could assist land managers in identifying sites that may qualify for enrollment in conservation programs, where planners can coordinate restoration efforts, or where decision makers can target resources to optimize the services provided across a watershed or multiple watersheds.

Identifying riparian buffer effects on stream nitrogen in southeastern coastal plain watersheds.

Within the Southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain of the U.S., numerous freshwaters and estuaries experience eutrophication with significant nutrient contributions by agricultural non-point sources (NPS). Riparian buffers are often used to reduce agricultural NPS yet the effect of buffers in the watershed is difficult to quantify. Using corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) and model averaging, we compared flow-path riparian buffer models with land use/land cover (LULC) models in 24 watersheds from the SE Coastal Plain to determine the ability of riparian buffers to reduce or mitigate stream total nitrogen concentrations (TNC). Additional models considered the relative importance of headwaters and artificial agricultural drainage in the Coastal Plain. A buffer model which included cropland and non-buffered cropland best explained stream TNC (R (2) = 0.75) and was five times more likely to be the correct model than the LULC model. The model average predicted that current buffers removed 52 % of nitrogen from the edge-of-field and 45 % of potential nitrogen from the average SE Coastal Plain watershed. On average, 26 % of stream nitrogen leaked through buffered cropland. Our study suggests that stream TNC could potentially be reduced by 34 % if buffers were adequately restored on all cropland. Such estimates provide realistic expectations of nitrogen removal via buffers to watershed managers as they attempt to meet water quality goals. In addition, model comparisons of AICc values indicated that non-headwater buffers may contribute little to stream TNC. Model comparisons also indicated that artificial drainage should be considered when accessing buffers and stream nitrogen.