Investigating Changes in Ozone Formation Chemistry during Summertime Pollution Events over the Northeastern United States.

Understanding the local-scale spatial and temporal variability of ozone formation is crucial for effective mitigation. We combine tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDTrop) of formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), referred to as HCHO-VCDTrop and NO2-VCDTrop, retrieved from airborne remote sensing and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with ground-based measurements to investigate changes in ozone precursors and the inferred chemical production regime on high-ozone days in May-August 2018 over two Northeast urban domains. Over New York City (NYC) and Baltimore/Washington D.C. (BAL/DC), HCHO-VCDTrop increases across the domain, but higher NO2-VCDTrop occurs mainly in urban centers on ozone exceedance days (when maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone exceeds 70 ppb at any monitor in the region). The ratio of HCHO-VCDTrop to NO2-VCDTrop, proposed as an indicator of the sensitivity of local surface ozone production rates to its precursors, generally increases on ozone exceedance days, implying a transition toward a more NOx-sensitive ozone production regime that should lead to higher efficacy of NOx controls on the highest ozone days in NYC and BAL/DC. Warmer temperatures and enhanced influence from emissions in the local boundary layer on the high-ozone days are accompanied by slower wind speeds in BAL/DC but stronger, southwesterly winds in NYC.

A retrospective comparison of model-based forecasted PM2.5 concentrations with measurements.

This study presents an assessment of the performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model in forecasting daily PM2.5 (particulate matter < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) mass concentrations over most of the eastern United States for a 2-yr period from June 14, 2006 to June 13, 2008. Model predictions were compared with filter-based and continuous measurements of PM2.5 mass and species on a seasonal and regional basis. Results indicate an underprediction of PM2.5 mass in spring and summer, resulting from under-predictions in sulfate and total carbon concentrations. During winter, the model overpredicted mass concentrations, mostly at the urban sites in the northeastern United States because of overpredictions in unspeciated PM2.5 (suggesting possible overestimation of primary emissions) and sulfate. A comparison of observed and predicted diurnal profiles of PM2.5 mass at five sites in the domain showed significant discrepancies. Sulfate diurnal profiles agreed in shape across three sites in the southern portion of the domain but differed at two sites in the northern portion of the domain. Predicted organic carbon (OC) profiles were similar in shape to mass, suggesting that discrepancies in mass profiles probably resulted from the underprediction in OC. The diurnal profiles at a highly urbanized site in New York City suggested that the overpredictions at that site might be resulting from overpredictions during the morning and evening hours, displayed as sharp peaks in predicted profiles. An examination of the predicted planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights also showed possible issues in the modeling of PBL.

Measurement of atmospheric hydroxyacetone, glycolaldehyde, and formaldehyde.

A method has been modified and optimized for the measurements of hydroxyacetone as well as formaldehyde and glycolaldehyde, based on aqueous scrubbing using a coil sampler followed by DNPH derivatization and HPLC analysis. Derivatization equilibrium and kinetics were studied to optimize the hydroxyacetone-DNPH derivative yield. It was found that the low sensitivity of hydroxyacetone by this method is due to a relatively small equilibrium constant for the hydroxyacetone-DNPH derivatization reaction, and thus it can be improved by increasing DNPH reagent concentration. In a medium containing 500 microM DNPH and 50 mM HCl, the derivatization reaches equilibrium within 30 min. An online reagent purification procedure using a DNPH-saturated Sep-Pak C-18 cartridge effectively removed hydrazone impurities in the DNPH reagent solution, and a sample preconcentration procedure using a C-18 guard column greatly enhanced the sensitivity and lowered the detection limits. The lower detection limits of the system under optimized conditions are 30, 9, and 36 pptv for hydroxyacetone, glycolaldehyde, and formaldehyde, respectively, with a sampling/analysis cycle time of 30 min. The method has been successfully deployed at a rural site in Pinnacle State Park in Addison, NY, for a 5 week period during the summer of 1998. The ambient concentration means (medians) were 372 (332), 301 (323), and 2040 (2030) pptv for hydroxyacetone, glycolaldehyde, and formaldehyde, respectively. A late-afternoon maximum and an early morning minimum were observed in the diurnal concentration distributions of all three carbonyl compounds. Good correlations among the three carbonyl compounds suggest that they originated from a common source, i.e., photochemical oxidation of biogenic hydrocarbons. Formaldehyde photolysis accounted for about 23% of the total radical photoproduction, whereas contributionsfrom hydroxyacetone and glycolaldehyde photolysis were insignificant because of the much slower photolysis and lower concentrations of these compounds.

Rethinking the assessment of photochemical modelin systems in air quality planning applications.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency provides guidelines for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O3) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards on the basis of the application of photochemical modeling systems to simulate the effect of emission reductions. These guidelines also require assessment of the model simulation against observations. In this study, we examined the link between the simulated relative responses to emission reductions and model performance as measured by operational evaluation metrics, a part of the model evaluation required by the guidance, which often is the cornerstone of model evaluation in many practical applications. To this end, summertime O3 concentrations were simulated with two modeling systems for both 2002 and 2009 emission conditions. One of these two modeling systems was applied with two different parameterizations for vertical mixing. Comparison of the simulated base-case 8-hr daily maximum O3 concentrations showed marked model-to-model differences of up to 20 ppb, resulting in significant differences in operational model performance measures. In contrast, only relatively minor differences were detected in the relative response of O3 concentrations to emission reductions, resulting in differences of a few ppb or less in estimated future year design values. These findings imply that operational model evaluation metrics provide little insight into the reliability of the actual model application in the regulatory setting (i.e., the estimation of relative changes). In agreement with the guidance, it is argued that more emphasis should be placed on the diagnostic evaluation of O3-precursor relationships and on the development and application of dynamic and retrospective evaluation approaches in which the response of the model to changes in meteorology and emissions is compared with observed changes. As an example, simulated relative O3 changes between 1995 and 2007 are compared against observed changes. It is suggested that such retrospective studies can serve as the starting point for targeted diagnostic studies in which individual aspects of the modeling system are evaluated and refined to improve the characterization of observed changes.

Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4 degrees x 5 degrees resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.

Analysis of ambient, precipitation-weighted, and lake sulfate concentrations in the Adirondack region of New York.

AbstractIt is well known that many ecosystems in the eastern United States, including the Adirondack Mountain region of New York, are particularly sensitive to acidic deposition because the soils and lakes in the region tend to have low values of base saturation and acid neutralizing capacity, respectively [e.g. Environ Sci Policy, 1 (1998), 185]. To facilitate tracking the impacts of anthropogenic emissions on air quality, acidic deposition, and surface water quality, the National Atmospheric Deposition Program, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and Adirondack Lake Survey Corporation have been monitoring ambient sulfur dioxide and aerosol sulfate levels, and anion and cation concentrations in wet deposition and lake water over the past few decades. In this paper, we discuss the seasonality and year-to-year variability, and illustrate some of the complexities in estimating temporal trends in these data. The periods of analysis extended through 2000, beginning in 1991 for the ambient air quality data, 1978 for the wet deposition data, and 1982 for the lake water quality data. While the lake water SO4(2-) concentrations appear to be decreasing gradually, the air concentration data appear to have changed abruptly in the 1990s and the precipitation-weighted concentrations exhibited both gradual and sharp decreases during the same period.

Assessing the effects of transboundary ozone pollution between Ontario, Canada and New York, USA.

We investigated the effects of transboundary pollution between Ontario and New York using both observations and modeling results. Analysis of the spatial scales associated with ozone pollution revealed the regional and international character of this pollutant. A back-trajectory-clustering methodology was used to evaluate the potential for transboundary pollution trading and to identify potential pollution source regions for two sites: CN tower in Toronto and the World Trade Center in New York City. Transboundary pollution transport was evident at both locations. The major pollution source areas for the period examined were the Ohio River Valley and Midwest. Finally, we examined the transboundary impact of emission reductions through photochemical models. We found that emissions from both New York and Ontario were transported across the border and that reductions in predicted O3 levels can be substantial when emissions on both sides of the border are reduced.

An evaluation of the UAM-V predicted concentrations of carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds over the eastern United States during summer 1995.

While there is a clear need to evaluate a photochemical model's ability in predicting not only the concentrations of O3, but also precursors and other trace species, many previous studies have focused only on the assessment of During the 1995 summer season, in addition to the routine monitoring of criteria pollutants, several research-oriented monitoring campaigns were conducted over the eastern United States, providing an extensive database of reactive nitrogen compounds, CO, and speciated hydrocarbon data. In this study, we examine the ability of a photochemical modeling system, RAMS/ UAM-V, to reproduce the measured concentrations of CO, NO2, and NOy over the region during the summer of 1995. The results demonstrate that there is agreement between modeled and measured seasonal average concentrations of NO2, both at the routine and research monitors. The same is true for NOy, but to a lesser degree. However, the model is found to significantly underpredict CO for the routine monitors in comparison to the research monitors.