ERA5-based global assessment of irrigation requirement and validation.

While only 20% of harvested lands are actually irrigated, 40% of global agricultural production originates from irrigated areas. Therefore, assessing irrigation requirements is essential for the development of effective water-related policies for an efficient management of water resources. Moreover, global-scale analyses are becoming increasingly relevant, motivated by globalized production and international trade of food as well as by the need of common strategies to address climate change. In this study, a comprehensive model to estimate crop growth and irrigation requirements of 26 main crops at global scale is presented. The model computes a soil water balance using daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration based on a high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis dataset from the European Copernicus Program. The irrigation requirement, defined as the minimum water volume to avoid water stress, is computed for year 2000 at the resolution of 5 arc-min (or 0.0833°) and aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales for relevant analyses. The estimated global irrigation requirements for 962 km3 is described in detail, also in relation to the spatial variability and to the monthly variation of the requirements. A focus on different areas of the world (California, Northern Italy and India) highlights the wealth of information provided by the model in different climatic conditions. National data of irrigation withdrawals have been used for an extensive comparison with model results. A crop-specific validation has also been made for the State of California, comparing model results with local data of irrigation volume and independent estimates of crop water use. In both cases, we found a good agreement between model results and real data.

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Virtuous and vicious virtual water trade with application to Italy.

The current trade of agricultural goods, with connections involving all continents, entails for global exchanges of "virtual" water, i.e. water used in the production process of alimentary products, but not contained within. Each trade link translates into a corresponding virtual water trade, allowing quantification of import and export fluxes of virtual water. The assessment of the virtual water import for a given nation, compared to the national consumption, could give an approximate idea of the country's reliance on external resources from the food and the water resources point of view. A descriptive approach to the understanding of a nation's degree of dependency from overseas food and water resources is first proposed, and indices of water trade virtuosity, as opposed to inefficiency, are devised. Such indices are based on the concepts of self-sufficiency and relative export, computed systematically on all products from the FAOSTAT database, taking Italy as the first case study. Analysis of time series of the self-sufficiency and relative export can demonstrate effects of market tendencies and influence water-related policies at the international level. The goal of this approach is highlighting incongruent terms in the virtual water balances by the viewpoint of single products. Specific products, which are here referred to as "swap products", are in fact identified as those that lead to inefficiencies in the virtual water balance due to their contemporaneously high import and export. The inefficiencies due to the exchanges of the same products between two nations are calculated in terms of virtual water volumes. Furthermore, the cases of swap products are investigated by computing two further indexes denoting the ratio of virtual water exchanged in the swap and the ratio of the economic values of the swapped products. The analysis of these figures can help examine the reasons behind the swap phenomenon in trade.