Strong association between reduction of late-stage cancers and reduction of cancer-specific mortality in meta-regression of randomized screening trials across multiple cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Late-stage cancer incidence has been proposed as an early surrogate for mortality in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer screening; however, its validity has not been systematically evaluated across screening RCTs of different cancers. METHODS: We conducted a meta-regression analysis of cancer screening RCTs that reported both late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality. Based on a systematic literature review, we included 33 RCTs of screening programs targeting seven cancer types, including lung (n = 12), colorectal (n = 8), breast (n = 5), and prostate (n = 4), among others. We regressed the relative reduction of cancer mortality on the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence, inversely weighted for each RCT by the variance of estimated mortality reduction. RESULTS: Across cancer types, the relative reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was linearly associated with the relative reduction of cancer mortality. Specifically, we observed this association for lung (R2 = 0.79 and 0.996 in three recent large trials), breast (R2 = 0.94), prostate (R2 = 0.98), and colorectal cancer (R2 = 0.75 for stage III/IV cancers and 0.93 for stage IV cancers). Trials with a 20% or greater reduction in late-stage cancers were more likely to achieve a significant reduction in cancer mortality. Our results also showed that no reduction of late-stage cancer incidence was associated with no or minimal reduction in cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-regression of historical screening RCTs showed a strong linear association between reductions in late-stage cancer incidence and cancer mortality.

Vaccination Timeliness Among US Children Aged 0-19 Months, National Immunization Survey-Child 2011-2021.

Importance: Delays in receiving vaccinations lead to greater vaccine-preventable disease risk. Timeliness of receipt of recommended vaccinations is not routinely tracked in the US, either overall or for populations that have known barriers to accessing routine health care, including lower-income families and children. Objective: To measure vaccination timeliness among US children aged 0 to 19 months, overall and by socioeconomic indicators. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial, cross-sectional study analyzed nationally representative data from the 2011 to 2021 National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child), an annual survey of parents, with immunization histories collected from clinicians administering vaccines. The 2020 and 2021 surveys largely reflected vaccinations in the US before the COVID-19 pandemic. Study participants included US children surveyed at ages 19 to 35 months. Data were analyzed from January to August 2023. Exposure: Survey year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were average days undervaccinated (ADU) and percentage of children who received all vaccine doses on time (ie, 0 days undervaccinated) for the combined 7-vaccine series up to age 19 months. The mean adjusted annual change in on-time vaccination by socioeconomic indicators was calculated by use of multivariable log-linked binomial regression models. Results: The surveys included 179 154 children (92 248 boys [51.2%]); 74 479 (31.4%, weighted) lived above the federal poverty level with more than $75 000 in annual family income, 58 961 (32.4%) lived at or above the poverty level with $75 000 or less in annual family income, and 39 564 (30.2%) lived below the poverty level. Overall, the median (IQR) ADU for the combined 7-vaccine series in the US decreased from 22.3 (0.4-71.5) days in the 2011 survey to 11.9 (0.0-55.5) days in the 2021 survey. The prevalence of on-time receipt of the combined 7-vaccine series increased from 22.5% (95% CI, 21.4%-23.6%) to 35.6% (95% CI, 34.2%-37.0%). Although children with more than $75 000 in annual family income had a 4.6% (95% CI, 4.0%-5.2%) mean annual increase in on-time vaccination, the mean annual increase was 2.8% (95% CI, 2.0%-3.6%) for children living at or above the poverty level with $75 000 or less in annual family income and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.0%-3.0%) for children living below the poverty level. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of NIS-Child data, improvements in vaccination timeliness were observed from the 2011 to the 2021 survey. However, widening disparities by socioeconomic indicators signal that increased efforts to facilitate timely vaccination among children in lower-income families are needed.

A Randomized Control Trial of a Digital Health Tool for Safer Firearm and Medication Storage for Patients with Suicide Risk.

Most patients with suicide risk do not receive recommendations to reduce access to lethal means due to a variety of barriers (e.g., lack of provider time, training). Determine if highly efficient population-based EHR messaging to visit the Lock to Live (L2L) decision aid impacts patient-reported storage behaviors. Randomized trial. Integrated health care system serving Denver, CO. Served by primary care or mental health specialty clinic in the 75-99.5th risk percentile on a suicide attempt or death prediction model. Lock to Live (L2L) is a web-based decision aid that incorporates patients' values into recommendations for safe storage of lethal means, including firearms and medications. Anonymous survey that determined readiness to change: pre-contemplative (do not believe in safe storage), contemplative (believe in safe storage but not doing it), preparation (planning storage changes) or action (safely storing). There were 21,131 patients randomized over a 6-month period with a 27% survey response rate. Many (44%) had access to a firearm, but most of these (81%) did not use any safe firearm storage behaviors. Intervention patients were more likely to be categorized as preparation or action compared to controls for firearm storage (OR = 1.30 (1.07-1.58)). When examining action alone, there were no group differences. There were no statistically significant differences for any medication storage behaviors. Selection bias in those who responded to survey. Efficiently sending an EHR invitation message to visit L2L encouraged patients with suicide risk to consider safer firearm storage practices, but a stronger intervention is needed to change storage behaviors. Future studies should evaluate whether combining EHR messaging with provider nudges (e.g., brief clinician counseling) changes storage behavior.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05288517.

Variation in patterns of second primary malignancies across U.S. race and ethnicity groups: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) analysis.

PURPOSE: One in six incident cancers in the U.S. is a second primary cancer (SPC). Although primary cancers vary considerably by race and ethnicity, little is known about the population-based occurrence of SPC across these groups. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 12 data and relative to the general population, we calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for SPC among 2,457,756 Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asian American/Pacific Islanders (NHAAPI), non-Hispanic black (NHB), and non-Hispanic whites (NHW) cancer survivors aged 45 years or older when diagnosed with a first primary cancer (FPC) from 1992 to 2015. RESULTS: The risk of second primary bladder cancer after first primary prostate cancer was higher than expected in Hispanic (SIR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.38) and NHAAPI (SIR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65) men than NHB and NHW men. Among women with a primary breast cancer, Hispanic, NHAAPI, and NHB women had a nearly 1.5-fold higher risk of a second primary breast cancer, while NHW women had a 6% lower risk. Among men with prostate cancer whose SPC was diagnosed 2 to <12 months, NHB men were at higher risk for colorectal cancer and Hispanic and NHW men for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In the same time frame for breast cancer survivors, Hispanic and NHAAPI women were significantly more likely than NHB and NHW women to be diagnosed with a second primary lung cancer. CONCLUSION: Future studies of SPC should investigate the role of shared etiologies, stage of diagnosis, treatment, and lifestyle factors after cancer survival across different racial and ethnic populations.

Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths.

PURPOSE: Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening. METHODS: Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020. RESULTS: Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach. CONCLUSION: Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Potential for Cure by Stage across the Cancer Spectrum in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cure fraction-the proportion of persons considered cured of cancer after long-term follow-up-reflects the total impact of cancer control strategies, including screening, without lead-time bias. Previous studies have not reported stage-stratified cure fraction across the spectrum of cancer types. METHODS: Using a mixture cure model, we estimated cure fraction across stages for 21 cancer types and additional subtypes. Cause-specific survival for 2.4 million incident cancers came from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for adults 40 to 84 years at diagnosis in 2006 to 2015, followed through 2020. RESULTS: Across cancer types, a substantial cure fraction was evident at early stages, followed by either a sharp drop from stages III to IV or a steady decline from stages I to IV. For example, estimated cure fractions for colorectal cancer at stages I, II, III, and IV were 62% (95% confidence interval: 59%-66%), 61% (58%-65%), 58% (57%-59%), and 7% (7%-7%), respectively. Corresponding estimates for gallbladder cancer were 50% (46%-54%), 24% (22%-27%), 22% (19%-25%), and 2% (2%-3%). Differences in 5-year cause-specific survival between early-stage and stage IV cancers were highly correlated with between-stage differences in cure fraction, indicating that survival gaps by stage are persistent and not due to lead-time bias. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable fraction of cancer is amenable to cure at early stages, but not after metastasis. IMPACT: These results emphasize the potential for early detection of numerous cancers, including those with no current screening modalities, to reduce cancer death.

Culturally humble and anti-racist couple and family interventions for African Americans.

Anti-Black racism including structural racism and racism-related disparities have come to the foreground in recent years with the increasingly frequent and brutal police killings of innocent African Americans, the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic on the Black community, and the effectiveness of the Black Lives Matter movement. There have been calls to action to ensure cultural effectiveness of couples and family therapy for African Americans. As one response to these calls, this article provides recommendations for culturally humble and anti-racist couple and family interventions. These best practices focus on the necessity of embracing a systemic stance and a strengths-based culturally responsive lens when assessing and intervening with African American couples and families. They focus on the need for therapists to be intentional about and consistent in engaging in self-exploration and taking the necessary steps to be not just competent but also capable. The final set of best practices detailed relate to assessing and intervening using a strengths-based approach in a culturally responsive, anti-racist, and socially attuned fashion. The article concludes with recommendations for couple/family therapists to develop a critical consciousness, engage in anti-racist practices, and address oppression while advancing healing and liberation, all of which are essential to ensuring the resilience and well-being of African American couples and families.

Assessing Diversity in Newborn Genomic Sequencing Research Recruitment: Race/Ethnicity and Primary Spoken Language Variation in Eligibility, Enrollment, and Reasons for Declining.

PURPOSE: Diagnostic genomic research has the potential to directly benefit participants. This study sought to identify barriers to equitable enrollment of acutely ill newborns into a diagnostic genomic sequencing research study. METHODS: We reviewed the 16-month recruitment process of a diagnostic genomic research study enrolling newborns admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit at a regional pediatric hospital that primarily serves English- and Spanish-speaking families. Differences in eligibility, enrollment, and reasons for not enrolling were examined as functions of race/ethnicity and primary spoken language. FINDINGS: Of the 1248 newborns admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, 46% (n = 580) were eligible, and 17% (n = 213) were enrolled. Of the 16 languages represented among the newborns' families, 4 (25%) had translated consent documents. Speaking a language other than English or Spanish increased a newborn's likelihood of being ineligible by 5.9 times (P < 0.001) after controlling for race/ethnicity. The main reason for ineligibility was documented as the clinical team declined having their patient recruited (41% [51 of 125]). This reason significantly affected families who spoke languages other than English or Spanish and was able to be remediated with training of the research staff. Stress (20% [18 of 90]) and the study intervention(s) (20% [18 of 90]) were the main reasons given for not enrolling. IMPLICATIONS: This analysis of eligibility, enrollment, and reasons for not enrolling in a diagnostic genomic research study found that recruitment generally did not differ as a function of a newborn's race/ethnicity. However, differences were observed depending on the parent's primary spoken language. Regular monitoring and training can improve equitable enrollment into diagnostic genomic research. There are also opportunities at the federal level to improve access to those with limited English proficiency and thus decrease disparities in representation in research participation.

Surgical resection as a predictor of cancer-specific survival by stage at diagnosis and cancer type, United States, 2006-2015.

BACKGROUND: When solid tumors are amenable to definitive resection, clinical outcomes are generally superior to when those tumors are inoperable. However, the population-level cancer survival benefit of eligibility for surgery by cancer stage has not yet been quantified. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data allowing us to identify patients who were deemed eligible for and received surgical resection, we examined the stage-specific association of surgical resection with 12-year cancer-specific survival. The 12-year endpoint was selected to maximize follow-up time and thereby minimize the influence of lead time bias. RESULTS: Across a variety of solid tumor types, earlier stage at diagnosis allowed for surgical intervention at a much higher rate than later-stage diagnosis. At every stage, surgical intervention was associated with a substantially higher rate of 12-year cancer-specific survival, with absolute differences of up to 51% for stage I, 51% for stage II, and 44% for stage III cancer, and stage-specific mortality relative risks of 3.6, 2.4, and 1.7, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis of solid cancers in early stages often enables surgical resection, which reduces the risk of death from cancer. Receipt of surgical resection is an informative endpoint that is strongly associated with long-term cancer-specific survival at every stage.

The association between buprenorphine treatment duration and mortality: a multi-site cohort study of people who discontinued treatment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Buprenorphine is an effective medication for opioid use disorder that reduces mortality; however, many patients are not retained in buprenorphine treatment, and an optimal length of treatment after which patients can safely discontinue treatment has not been identified. This study measured the association between buprenorphine treatment duration and all-cause mortality among patients who discontinued treatment. Secondary objectives were to measure the association between treatment duration and drug overdose and opioid-related overdoses. DESIGN: Multi-site cohort study. SETTING: Eight US health systems. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who initiated and discontinued buprenorphine treatment between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2018 (n = 6550). Outcomes occurring after patients discontinued buprenorphine treatment were compared between patients who initiated and discontinued treatment after 8-30, 31-90, 91-180, 181-365 and > 365 days. MEASUREMENTS: Covariate data were obtained from electronic health records (EHRs). Mortality outcomes were derived from EHRs and state vital statistics. Non-fatal opioid and drug overdoses were obtained from diagnostic codes. Four sites provided cause-of-death data to identify fatal drug and opioid-related overdoses. Adjusted frailty regression was conducted on a propensity-weighted cohort to assess associations between duration of the final treatment episode and outcomes. FINDINGS: The mortality rate after buprenorphine treatment was 1.82 per 100 person-years (n = 191 deaths). In regression analyses with > 365 days as the reference group, treatment duration was not associated with all-cause mortality and drug overdose (P > 0.05 for both). However, compared with > 365 days of treatment, 91-180 days of treatment was associated with increased opioid overdose risk (hazard ratio = 2.94, 95% confidence interval = 1.11-7.79). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who discontinue buprenorphine treatment, there appears to be no treatment duration period associated with a reduced risk for all-cause mortality. Patients who discontinue buprenorphine treatment after 91-180 days appear to be at heightened risk for opioid overdose compared with patients who discontinue after > 365 days of treatment.

Cell-Free DNA-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Test in an Asymptomatic Screening Population (NHS-Galleri): Design of a Pragmatic, Prospective Randomised Controlled Trial.

We report the design of the NHS-Galleri trial (ISRCTN91431511), aiming to establish whether a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test that screens asymptomatic individuals for cancer can reduce late-stage cancer incidence. This randomised controlled trial has invited approximately 1.5 million persons and enrolled over 140,000 from the general population of England (50-77 years; ≥3 years without cancer diagnosis or treatment; not undergoing investigation for suspected cancer). Blood is being collected at up to three annual visits. Following baseline blood collection, participants are randomised 1:1 to the intervention (blood tested by MCED test) or control (blood stored) arm. Only participants in the intervention arm with a cancer signal detected have results returned and are referred for urgent investigations and potential treatment. Remaining participants in both arms stay blinded and return for their next visit. Participants are encouraged to continue other NHS cancer screening programmes and seek help for new or unusual symptoms. The primary objective is to demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in the incidence rate of stage III and IV cancers diagnosed in the intervention versus control arm 3-4 years after randomisation. NHS-Galleri will help determine the clinical utility of population screening with an MCED test.

Key risk factors for the relative and absolute 5-year risk of cancer to enhance cancer screening and prevention.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies populations who may benefit most from expanded cancer screening. METHODS: Two American Cancer Society prospective cohort studies, Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort and Cancer Prevention Study-3, were used to identify the risk factors associated with a > 2% absolute risk of any cancer within 5 years. In total, 429,991 participants with no prior personal history of cancer were followed for cancer for up to 5 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for association. By using these hazard ratios, individualized coherent absolute risk estimation was used to calculate absolute risks by age. RESULTS: Overall, 15,226 invasive cancers were diagnosed among participants within 5 years of enrollment. The multivariable-adjusted relative risk of any cancer was strongest for current smokers compared with never-smokers. In men, alcohol intake, family history of cancer, red meat consumption, and physical inactivity were also associated with risk (p < .05). In women, body mass index, type 2 diabetes, hysterectomy, parity, family history of cancer, hypertension, tubal ligation, and physical inactivity were associated (p < .05). The absolute 5-year risk exceeded 2% among nearly all participants older than 50 years and among some participants younger than 50 years, including current or former smokers (<30 years since quitting) and long-term nonsmokers with a body mass index >25 kg/m2 or a first-degree family history of cancer. The absolute 5-year risk was as high as 29% in men and 25% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Older age and smoking were the two most important risk factors associated with the relative and absolute 5-year risk of developing any cancer.

Development and implementation of a prescription opioid registry across diverse health systems.

Objective: Develop and implement a prescription opioid registry in 10 diverse health systems across the US and describe trends in prescribed opioids between 2012 and 2018. Materials and Methods: Using electronic health record and claims data, we identified patients who had an outpatient fill for any prescription opioid, and/or an opioid use disorder diagnosis, between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2018. The registry contains distributed files of prescription opioids, benzodiazepines and other select medications, opioid antagonists, clinical diagnoses, procedures, health services utilization, and health plan membership. Rates of outpatient opioid fills over the study period, standardized to health system demographic distributions, are described by age, gender, and race/ethnicity among members without cancer. Results: The registry includes 6 249 710 patients and over 40 million outpatient opioid fills. For the combined registry population, opioid fills declined from a high of 0.718 per member-year in 2013 to 0.478 in 2018, and morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) per fill declined from 985 MMEs per fill in 2012 to 758 MMEs in 2018. MMEs per member declined from 692 MMEs per member in 2012 to 362 MMEs per member in 2018. Conclusion: This study established a population-based opioid registry across 10 diverse health systems that can be used to address questions related to opioid use. Initial analyses showed large reductions in overall opioid use per member among the combined health systems. The registry will be used in future studies to answer a broad range of other critical public health issues relating to prescription opioid use.

Developing an algorithm across integrated healthcare systems to identify a history of cancer using electronic medical records.

OBJECTIVE: Tumor registries in integrated healthcare systems (IHCS) have high precision for identifying incident cancer but often miss recently diagnosed cancers or those diagnosed outside of the IHCS. We developed an algorithm using the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify people with a history of cancer not captured in the tumor registry to identify adults, aged 40-65 years, with no history of cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The algorithm was developed at Kaiser Permanente Colorado, and then applied to 7 other IHCS. We included tumor registry data, diagnosis and procedure codes, chemotherapy files, oncology encounters, and revenue data to develop the algorithm. Each IHCS adapted the algorithm to their EMR data and calculated sensitivity and specificity to evaluate the algorithm's performance after iterative chart review. RESULTS: We included data from over 1.26 million eligible people across 8 IHCS; 55 601 (4.4%) were in a tumor registry, and 44848 (3.5%) had a reported cancer not captured in a registry. The common attributes of the final algorithm at each site were diagnosis and procedure codes. The sensitivity of the algorithm at each IHCS was 90.65%-100%, and the specificity was 87.91%-100%. DISCUSSION: Relying only on tumor registry data would miss nearly half of the identified cancers. Our algorithm was robust and required only minor modifications to adapt to other EMR systems. CONCLUSION: This algorithm can identify cancer cases regardless of when the diagnosis occurred and may be useful for a variety of research applications or quality improvement projects around cancer care.

New genomic technologies for multi-cancer early detection: Rethinking the scope of cancer screening.

Cancers other than breast, colorectal, cervical, and lung do not have guideline-recommended screening. New multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests-using a single blood sample-have been developed based on circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) or other analytes. In this commentary, we review the current evidence on these tests, provide several major considerations for new MCED tests, and outline how their evaluation will need to differ from that established for traditional single-cancer screening tests.

The Kaiser Permanente Research Bank Cancer Cohort: a collaborative resource to improve cancer care and survivorship.

BACKGROUND: The Kaiser Permanente Research Bank (KPRB) is collecting biospecimens and surveys linked to electronic health records (EHR) from approximately 400,000 adult KP members. Within the KPRB, we developed a Cancer Cohort to address issues related to cancer survival, and to understand how genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors impact cancer treatment, treatment sequelae, and prognosis. We describe the Cancer Cohort design and implementation, describe cohort characteristics after 5 years of enrollment, and discuss future directions. METHODS: Cancer cases are identified using rapid case ascertainment algorithms, linkage to regional or central tumor registries, and direct outreach to KP members with a history of cancer. Enrollment is primarily through email invitation. Participants complete a consent form, survey, and donate a blood or saliva sample. All cancer types are included. RESULTS: As of December 31, 2020, the cohort included 65,225 cases (56% female, 44% male) verified in tumor registries. The largest group was diagnosed between 60 and 69 years of age (31%) and are non-Hispanic White (83%); however, 10,076 (16%) were diagnosed at ages 18-49 years, 4208 (7%) are Hispanic, 3393 (5%) are Asian, and 2389 (4%) are Black. The median survival time is 14 years. Biospecimens are available on 98% of the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The KPRB Cancer Cohort is designed to improve our understanding of treatment efficacy and factors that contribute to long-term cancer survival. The cohort's diversity - with respect to age, race/ethnicity and geographic location - will facilitate research on factors that contribute to cancer survival disparities.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Cancer Diagnosed after Metastasis: Absolute Burden and Deaths Potentially Avoidable through Earlier Detection.

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic disparities in cancer mortality are well described and are partly attributable to later stage of diagnosis. It is unclear to what extent reductions in the incidence of late-stage cancer could narrow these relative and absolute disparities. METHODS: We obtained stage- and cancer-specific incidence and survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for persons ages 50 to 79 years between 2006 and 2015. For eight hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 persons defined by race/ethnicity and sex, we estimated cancer-related deaths if cancers diagnosed at stage IV were detected earlier, by assigning them outcomes of earlier stages. RESULTS: We observed a 3-fold difference in the absolute burden of stage IV cancer between the group with the highest rate (non-Hispanic Black males, 337 per 100,000) and the lowest rate (non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander females, 117 per 100,000). Assuming all stage IV cancers were diagnosed at stage III, 32-80 fewer cancer-related deaths would be expected across subgroups, a relative reduction of 13%-14%. Assuming one third of metastatic cancers were diagnosed at each earlier stage (I, II, and III), 52-126 fewer cancer-related deaths would be expected across subgroups, a relative reduction of 21%-23%. CONCLUSIONS: Across population subgroups, non-Hispanic Black males have the highest burden of stage IV cancer and would have the most deaths averted from improved detection of cancer before metastasis. IMPACT: Detecting cancer before metastasis could meaningfully reduce deaths in all populations, but especially in non-Hispanic Black populations. See related commentary by Loomans-Kropp et al., p. 512.