An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Recurrent alcohol-associated hepatitis is common and is associated with increased mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol relapse after surviving an episode of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is common. However, the clinical features, risk factors, and prognostic implications of recurrent alcohol-associated hepatitis (RAH) are not well described. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A registry-based study was done of patients admitted to 28 Spanish hospitals for an episode of AH between 2014 and 2021. Baseline demographics and laboratory variables were collected. Risk factors for RAH were investigated using Cox regression analysis. We analyzed the severity of the index episodes of AH and compared it to that of RAH. Long-term survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. A total of 1118 patients were included in the analysis, 125 (11%) of whom developed RAH during follow-up (median: 17 [7-36] months). The incidence of RAH in patients resuming alcohol use was 22%. The median time to recurrence was 14 (8-29) months. Patients with RAH had more psychiatric comorbidities. Risk factors for developing RAH included age <50 years, alcohol use >10 U/d, and history of liver decompensation. RAH was clinically more severe compared to the first AH (higher MELD, more frequent ACLF, and HE). Moreover, alcohol abstinence during follow-up was less common after RAH (18% vs. 45%, p <0.001). Most importantly, long-term mortality was higher in patients who developed RAH (39% vs. 21%, p = 0.026), and presenting with RAH independently predicted high mortality (HR: 1.55 [1.11-2.18]). CONCLUSIONS: RAH is common and has a more aggressive clinical course, including increased mortality. Patients surviving an episode of AH should undergo intense alcohol use disorder therapy to prevent RAH.

Hepatic hemodynamic study: More than just HVPG measurement.

Evaluation and staging of liver disease is essential in the clinical decision-making process of liver tumors. The severity of portal hypertension (PH) is the main prognostic factor in advanced liver disease. Performing an accurate hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement is not always possible, especially when veno-venous communications are present. In those complex cases, a refinement in HVPG measurement with a thorough evaluation of each of the components of PH is mandatory. We aimed at describing how some technical modifications and complementary procedures may contribute to an accurate and complete clinical evaluation to improve therapeutic decisions.

Portal hypertension increases the risk of hepatic decompensation after 90Yttrium radioembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a cohort study.

Background: Transarterial radioembolization (TARE) is increasingly used in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This treatment can induce or impair portal hypertension, leading to hepatic decompensation. TARE also promotes changes in liver and spleen volumes that may modify therapeutic decisions and outcomes after therapy. Objectives: We aimed to investigate the impact of TARE on the incidence of decompensation events and its predictive factors. Design: In all, 63 consecutive patients treated with TARE between February 2012 and December 2018 were retrospectively included. Methods: We assessed clinical (including Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, portal hypertension assessment, and liver decompensation), laboratory parameters, and liver and spleen volumes before and 6 and 12 weeks after treatment. A multivariate analysis was performed. Results: In total, 18 out of 63 (28.6%) patients had liver decompensation (ascites, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or encephalopathy) within the first 3 months after therapy, not associated with tumor progression. Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and bilobar treatment independently predicted the development of liver decompensation after TARE. A significant volume increase in the non-treated hemi-liver was observed only in patients with unilobar treatment (median volume increase of 20.2% in patients with right lobe TARE; p = 0.007), especially in those without CSPH. Spleen volume also increased after TARE (median volume increase of 16.1%; p = 0.0001) and was associated with worsening liver function scores and decreased platelet count. Conclusion: Bilobar TARE and CSPH may be associated with an increased risk of liver decompensation in patients with intermediate or advanced HCC. A careful assessment considering these variables before therapy may optimize candidate selection and improve treatment planning.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Bariatric Surgery Is Associated with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease and Psychiatric Disorders Associated with AUD.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Bariatric surgery can increase the risk of addictive disorders and nutritional deficiencies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between bariatric surgery and alcohol use disorder (AUD), alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), and psychiatric disorders associated with AUD. The impact of vitamin D deficiency in these associations was also investigated. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed using the National Inpatient Sample database and its ICD-9 codes information. Diagnostic and comorbidity data from hospital discharges were obtained from patients with bariatric surgery and other abdominal surgeries between 2005 and 2015. The two groups were then compared for alcohol-related outcomes after propensity-score matching. RESULTS: The final study cohort included 537,757 patients with bariatric surgery and 537,757 with other abdominal surgeries. The bariatric surgery group had an increased risk of AUD [odds ratio (OR): 1.90; 95% CI: 1.85-1.95], ALD [OR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.22-1.37], cirrhosis [OR, 1.39; 95% CI: 1.37-1.42], and psychiatric disorders associated with AUD [OR, 3.59; 95% CI: 3.37-3.84]. Vitamin D deficiency did not impact in the association between bariatric surgery and AUD, ALD, or psychiatric disorders associated with AUD. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery is associated with an increased prevalence of AUD, ALD, and psychiatric disorders associated with AUD. These associations appear to be independent from vitamin D deficiency.

Spectrum, Screening, and Diagnosis of Alcohol-related Liver Disease.

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) represents one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease and is a major cause of liver-related deaths worldwide. ALD encompasses a range of disorders including simple steatosis, alcoholic steatohepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Patients with underlying ALD and continued heavy alcohol consumption can also develop an episode of acute-on-chronic liver injury called alcohol-associated hepatitis, the most severe form of the disease, which portends a poor prognosis. The most important risk factor for the development of ALD is the amount of alcohol consumed. Individual susceptibility to progression to advanced fibrosis among heavy drinkers is likely determined by a combination of behavioral, environmental, genetic, and epigenetic factors, but the mechanisms are largely unknown. The only effective therapy for ALD is prolonged alcohol abstinence. Diagnosis of ALD involves assessing patients for alcohol use disorder and signs of advanced liver disease. In clinical practice, the histological assessment for ALD diagnosis is uncommon, and it is usually based on the medical history, clinical manifestations, and laboratory and imaging tests. Several promising biomarkers that can have both diagnostic and prognostic value in patients with ALD have been identified in recent years. This review provides an overview of the clinical spectrum of ALD, the diagnostic approach of the disease from different perspectives as well as current diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

CT-derived liver and spleen volume accurately diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background & Aims: Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) is a landmark in the natural history of cirrhosis, influencing clinical decisions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Previous small series suggested that splanchnic volume measurements may predict portal hypertension. We aimed to evaluate whether volumetry obtained by standard multidetector computerised tomography (MDCT) can predict CSPH in patients with HCC. Methods: We included 175 patients with HCC, referred for hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) evaluation, in whom contemporary MDCT was available. Liver volume, spleen volume (SV) and liver segmental volume ratio (LSVR: volume of the segments I-III/volume of the segments IV-VIII) were calculated semi-automatically from MDCT. Other non-invasive tests (NITs) were also employed. Results: Volume parameters could be measured in almost 100% of cases with an excellent inter-observer agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient >0.950). SV and LSVR were independently associated with CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mmHg) and did not interact with aetiology. The volume Index (VI), calculated as the product of SV and LSVR, predicted CSPH (AUC 0.83; 95% CI 0.77-0.89). Similar results were observed in an external cohort (n = 23) (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.69-1.00). Setting a sensitivity and specificity of 98%, VI could have avoided 35.9% of HVPG measurements. The accuracy of VI was similar to that of other NITs. VI also accurately predicted HVPG greater than 12, 14, 16 and 18 mmHg (AUC 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.88], 0.84 [95% CI 0.77-0.91], 0.85 [95% CI 0.77-0.92] and 0.87 [95% CI 0.79-0.94], respectively). Conclusions: Quantification of liver and spleen volumes by MDCT is a simple, accurate and reliable method of CSPH estimation in patients with compensated cirrhosis and HCC. Impact and implications: An increase in portal pressure strongly impacts outcomes after surgery in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Direct measurement through hepatic vein catheterization remains the reference standard for portal pressure assessment, but its invasiveness limits its application. Therefore, we evaluated the ability of CT scan-based liver and spleen volume measurements to predict portal hypertension in patients with HCC. Our results indicate that the newly described index, based on quantification of liver and spleen volume, accurately predicts portal hypertension. These results suggest that a single imaging test may be used to diagnose and stage HCC, while providing an accurate estimation of portal hypertension, thus helping to stratify surgical risks.

Loss of hepatic DRP1 exacerbates alcoholic hepatitis by inducing megamitochondria and mitochondrial maladaptation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Increased megamitochondria formation and impaired mitophagy in hepatocytes have been linked to the pathogenesis of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). This study aims to determine the mechanisms by which alcohol consumption increases megamitochondria formation in the pathogenesis of ALD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Human alcoholic hepatitis (AH) liver samples were used for electron microscopy, histology, and biochemical analysis. Liver-specific dynamin-related protein 1 (DRP1; gene name DNM1L, an essential gene regulating mitochondria fission ) knockout (L-DRP1 KO) mice and wild-type mice were subjected to chronic plus binge alcohol feeding. Both human AH and alcohol-fed mice had decreased hepatic DRP1 with increased accumulation of hepatic megamitochondria. Mechanistic studies revealed that alcohol feeding decreased DRP1 by impairing transcription factor EB-mediated induction of DNM1L . L-DRP1 KO mice had increased megamitochondria and decreased mitophagy with increased liver injury and inflammation, which were further exacerbated by alcohol feeding. Seahorse flux and unbiased metabolomics analysis showed alcohol intake increased mitochondria oxygen consumption and hepatic nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD + ), acylcarnitine, and ketone levels, which were attenuated in L-DRP1 KO mice, suggesting that loss of hepatic DRP1 leads to maladaptation to alcohol-induced metabolic stress. RNA-sequencing and real-time quantitative PCR analysis revealed increased gene expression of the cGAS-stimulator of interferon genes (STING)-interferon pathway in L-DRP1 KO mice regardless of alcohol feeding. Alcohol-fed L-DRP1 KO mice had increased cytosolic mtDNA and mitochondrial dysfunction leading to increased activation of cGAS-STING-interferon signaling pathways and liver injury. CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption decreases hepatic DRP1 resulting in increased megamitochondria and mitochondrial maladaptation that promotes AH by mitochondria-mediated inflammation and cell injury.

Poor Outcomes of Patients With NAFLD and Moderate Renal Dysfunction or Short-Term Dialysis Receiving a Liver Transplant Alone.

The outcomes of patients with moderate renal impairment and the impact of liver disease etiology on renal function recovery after liver transplant alone (LTA) are largely unknown. We explored whether NAFLD patients with pre-LTA moderate renal dysfunction (GFR 25-45 ml/min/1.73 m2) may be more susceptible to develop post-LTA severe renal dysfunction (GFR<15 ml/min/1.73 m2) than ALD patients, as well as other overall outcomes. Using the UNOS/OPTN database, we selected patients undergoing liver transplant for NAFLD or ALD (2006-2016), 15,103 of whom received LTA. NAFLD patients with moderate renal dysfunction were more likely to develop subsequent GFR<15 ml/min/1.73 m2 than ALD patients (11.1% vs. 7.38%, p < 0.001). Patients on short-term dialysis pre-LTA (≤12 weeks) were more likely to develop severe renal dysfunction (31.7% vs. 18.1%), especially in NAFLD patients, and were more likely to receive a further kidney transplant (15.3% vs. 3.7%) and had lower survival (48.6% vs. 50.4%) after LTA (p < 0.001 for all). NAFLD was an independent risk factor for post-LTA severe renal dysfunction (HR = 1.2, p = 0.02). NAFLD patients with moderate renal dysfunction and those receiving short-term dialysis prior to LTA are at a higher risk of developing subsequent severe renal dysfunction. Underlying etiology of liver disease may play a role in predicting development and progression of renal failure in patients receiving LTA.

Integrated Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis Identifies Plasma Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Failure in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis.

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a form of liver failure with high short-term mortality. Recent studies have shown that defective function of hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 alpha (HNF4a) and systemic inflammation are major disease drivers of AH. Plasma biomarkers of hepatocyte function could be useful for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Herein, an integrative analysis of hepatic RNA sequencing and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was performed to identify plasma protein signatures for patients with mild and severe AH. Alcohol-related liver disease cirrhosis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and healthy subjects were used as comparator groups. Levels of identified proteins primarily involved in hepatocellular function were decreased in patients with AH, which included hepatokines, clotting factors, complement cascade components, and hepatocyte growth activators. A protein signature of AH disease severity was identified, including thrombin, hepatocyte growth factor α, clusterin, human serum factor H-related protein, and kallistatin, which exhibited large abundance shifts between severe and nonsevere AH. The combination of thrombin and hepatocyte growth factor α discriminated between severe and nonsevere AH with high sensitivity and specificity. These findings were correlated with the liver expression of genes encoding secreted proteins in a similar cohort, finding a highly consistent plasma protein signature reflecting HNF4A and HNF1A functions. This unbiased proteomic-transcriptome analysis identified plasma protein signatures and pathways associated with disease severity, reflecting HNF4A/1A activity useful for diagnostic assessment in AH.

Liver and spleen volumes are associated with prognosis of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and parallel its natural history.

OBJECTIVE: Cirrhosis is characterized by the complex interplay among biological, histological and haemodynamic events. Liver and spleen remodelling occur throughout its natural history, but the prognostic role of these volumetric changes is unclear. We evaluated the relationship between volumetric changes assessed by multidetector computerised tomography (MDCT) and landmark features of cirrhosis. METHODS: We included consecutive cirrhotic patients who underwent liver transplantation (LT) or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection in whom dynamic MDCT was available. Different volumetric indices were calculated. Fibrosis was evaluated by the collagen proportional area and Laennec sub-stages. Correlation and logistic regression analysis were performed to explore associations of volumetric indexes and fibrosis with key prognostic features across the clinical stages of cirrhosis. RESULTS: 185 patients were included (146 LT; 39 HCC); the predominant aetiology was viral hepatitis (51.35%); 65.9% had decompensated disease and 85.08% clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). The standardised liver volume and liver-spleen volume ratio negatively correlated with Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), albumin and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and were significantly lower in decompensated patients. The liver segmental volume ratio (segments I-III/segments IV-VIII) best captured the characteristic features of the compensated phase, showing a positive correlation with HVPG and a good discrimination between patients with and without CSPH and varices. Volumetric changes and fibrosis severity were independently associated with key prognostic events, with no association between these two parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Liver and spleen volumetric indices evolve differently along the natural history of cirrhosis and are associated with key prognostic factors in each phase, regardless of fibrosis severity and portal hypertension.

Cigarette smoking and liver diseases.

Cigarette smoking is a preventable risk factor for premature morbidity and mortality. A history of smoking is observed in approximately 40% of patients with liver disease, while a growing number of studies are investigating the potential impact of smoking in chronic liver diseases. This review discusses the effects of smoking on liver diseases, at multiple levels, with a focus on its potential causal role. Clinical evidence indicates that cigarette smoking negatively impacts the incidence and severity of fatty liver disease, fibrosis progression, hepatocellular carcinoma development, and the outcomes of patients with advanced liver disease. The underlying mechanisms are complex and involve different pathophysiological pathways including oxidative stress and oncogenic signals. Importantly, smoking promotes cardiovascular disease and extrahepatic cancers in patients with steatohepatitis and in transplant recipients. We discuss how promoting smoking cessation could improve the rates of treatment response (in clinical trials) and fibrosis regression, while reducing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and improving liver transplant outcomes. Finally, we discuss current challenges such as the referral of smokers to specialised units for smoking cessation.

Effects of Albumin on Survival after a Hepatic Encephalopathy Episode: Randomized Double-Blind Trial and Meta-Analysis.

No therapies have been proven to increase survival after a hepatic encephalopathy (HE) episode. We hypothesize that two doses of albumin could improve 90-day survival rates after a HE episode. METHODS: (1) A randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (BETA) was conducted in 12 hospitals. The effect of albumin (1.5 g/kg at baseline and 1 g/kg on day 3) on 90-day survival rates after a HE episode grade II or higher was evaluated. (2) A meta-analysis of individual patient's data for survival including two clinical trials (BETA and ALFAE) was performed. RESULTS: In total, 82 patients were included. Albumin failed to increase the 90-day transplant-free survival (91.9% vs. 80.5%, p = 0.3). A competing risk analysis was performed, observing a 90-day cumulative incidence of death of 9% in the albumin group vs. 20% in the placebo (p = 0.1). The meta-analysis showed a benefit in the albumin group, with a lower rate of clinical events (death or liver transplant) than patients in the placebo (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.21-0.82), when analyzed by a competing risk analysis (90-days mortality rate of 11% in the albumin group vs. 30% in the placebo, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated doses of albumin might be beneficial for patient's survival as an add-on therapy after an HE episode, but an adequately powered trial is needed.

Prehabilitation-Driven Changes in Frailty Metrics Predict Mortality in Patients With Advanced Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Frailty is a predictor of morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis. Although evidence for prehabilitation is promising, the data for liver transplant (LT) candidates are limited. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a novel prehabilitation strategy on changes in frailty metrics and survival in LT candidates. The secondary aim was to determine liver-related and extrahepatic conditions associated with frailty. METHODS: In this ambispective cohort study, all patients underwent frailty assessment using the liver frailty index (LFI), 6-minute walk test, and gait speed test performed by a dedicated physical therapist. Home-based exercise prescription was individualized to each patient's baseline physical fitness. RESULTS: We included 517 patients (59% men, median age 61 years, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of 12) evaluated during 936 PT visits. Frailty metrics were affected by age, sex, and liver-related parameters, but not by model for end-stage liver disease. Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related cirrhosis had worse frailty metrics by all tools. We demonstrated the feasibility of prehabilitation in improving both LFI and 6-minute walk test, particularly in adherent patients. A median LFI improvement of 0.3 in frail patients was associated with improved survival in univariate analysis. Compliance with physical therapist visits (hazards ratio = 0.35 [0.18-0.67] for 2 visits and hazards ratio = 0.54 [0.31-0.94] for ≥3 visits) was independently associated with increased survival. DISCUSSION: Prehabilitation improves frailty metrics in LT candidates and is associated with a survival advantage. Our findings provide a framework for the standardized prehabilitation program in LT candidates while prioritizing compliance, adherence, and on-training LFI goal accomplishment.

Moderate Alcoholic Hepatitis.

The natural history of moderate alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is not well known. It is a frequent disease with a probable underestimated incidence compared with its severe form. Among the different prognostic scores predicting short-term mortality in AH, MELD seems to be the most accurate. The mortality of moderate AH is 3% to 7% in the short to medium term and 13% to 20% at 1 year, mainly because of liver-related complications, including severe infections. Long-term abstinence is the main goal of the treatment. There is still need for the development of new therapies for AH, including the less severe forms.

Possible unrecognised liver injury is associated with mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with acute respiratory distress syndrome is a life-threatening condition. A previous diagnosis of chronic liver disease is associated with poorer outcomes. Nevertheless, the impact of silent liver injury has not been investigated. We aimed to explore the association of pre-admission liver fibrosis indices with the prognosis of critically ill COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The work presented was an observational study in 214 patients with COVID-19 consecutively admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Pre-admission liver fibrosis indices were calculated. In-hospital mortality and predictive factors were explored with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean age was 59.58 (13.79) years; 16 patients (7.48%) had previously recognised chronic liver disease. Up to 78.84% of patients according to Forns, and 45.76% according to FIB-4, had more than minimal fibrosis. Fibrosis indices were higher in non-survivors [Forns: 6.04 (1.42) versus 4.99 (1.58), p < 0.001; FIB-4: 1.77 (1.17) versus 1.41 (0.91), p = 0.020)], but no differences were found in liver biochemistry parameters. Patients with any degree of fibrosis either by Forns or FIB-4 had a higher mortality, which increased according to the severity of fibrosis (p < 0.05 for both indexes). Both Forns [HR 1.41 (1.11-1.81); p = 0.006] and FIB-4 [HR 1.31 (0.99-1.72); p = 0.051] were independently related to survival after adjusting for the Charlson comorbidity index, APACHE II, and ferritin. CONCLUSION: Unrecognised liver fibrosis, assessed by serological tests prior to admission, is independently associated with a higher risk of death in patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to the ICU.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method. RESULTS: In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247). CONCLUSION: Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).