Poliomyelitis eradication: progress, challenges for the end game, and preparation for the post-eradication era.

In 1988, the World Health Assembly resolved to eradicate poliomyelitis globally by the year 2000. Dramatic progress toward this goal has occurred: three of the six WHO regions (Region of the Americas, European Region, and Western Pacific Region) are now polio free; and the number of polio-endemic countries decreased from over 125 in 1988 to 30 in 1999. Intensified efforts currently are underway to reach the target as soon as possible after 2000 in the three remaining polio-endemic WHO regions (African Region, Eastern Mediterranean Region, and South-East Asia Region). Even in polio-endemic regions, many countries are already polio free as the geographic extent of poliovirus shrinks while others. especially those experiencing conflict and war, pose substantial challenges to implementing the proven polio eradication strategies. Increasing attention and research now are devoted to the certification of polio eradication in the polio-free regions (that will include the first phase of implementing the Global Plan of Action for the laboratory containment of wild poliovirus) and formulating a policy for stopping all polio vaccination once eradication, containment, and global certification have been achieved. This report outlines the progress toward polio eradication and highlights some of the remaining issues and challenges that must be addressed before polio becomes a disease that future generations know only by history.

Possible global strategies for stopping polio vaccination and how they could be harmonized.

One of the challenges of the polio eradication initiative over the next few years will be the formulation of an optimal strategy for stopping poliovirus vaccination after global certification of polio eradication has been accomplished. This strategy must maximize the benefits and minimize the risks. A number of strategies are currently under consideration, including: (i) synchronized global discontinuation of use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV); (ii) regional or subregional coordinated OPV discontinuation; and (iii) moving from trivalent to bivalent or monovalent OPV. Other options include moving from OPV to global use of IPV for an interim period before cessation of IPV use (to eliminate circulation of vaccine-derived poliovirus, if necessary) or development of new OPV strains that are not transmissible. Each of these strategies is associated with specific advantages (financial benefits for OPV discontinuation) and disadvantages (cost of switch to IPV) and inherent uncertainties (risk of continued poliovirus circulation in certain populations or prolonged virus replication in immunodeficient persons). An ambitious research agenda addresses the remaining questions and issues. Nevertheless, several generalities are already clear. Unprecedented collaboration between countries, regions, and indeed the entire world will be required to implement a global OPV discontinuation strategy Regulatory approval will be needed for an interim bivalent OPV or for monovalent OPV in many countries. Manufacturers will need sufficient lead time to produce sufficient quantities of IPV Finally, the financial implications for any of these strategies need to be considered. Whatever strategy is followed it will be necessary to stockpile supplies of a poliovirus-containing vaccine (most probably all three types of monovalent OPV), and to develop contingency plans to respond should an outbreak of polio occur after stopping vaccination.

Measles eradication: is it in our future?

Measles eradication would avert the current annual 1 million deaths and save the $1.5 billion in treatment and prevention costs due to measles in perpetuity. The authors evaluate the biological feasibility of eradicating measles according to 4 criteria: (1) the role of humans in maintaining transmission, (2) the availability of accurate diagnostic tests, (3) the existence of effective vaccines, and (4) the need to demonstrate elimination of measles from a large geographic area. Recent successes in interrupting measles transmission in the United States, most other countries in the Western Hemisphere, and selected countries in other regions provide evidence for the feasibility of global eradication. Potential impediments to eradication include (1) lack of political will in some industrialized countries, (2) transmission among adults, (3) increasing urbanization and population density, (4) the HIV epidemic, (5) waning immunity and the possibility of transmission from subclinical cases, and (6) risk of unsafe injections. Despite these challenges, a compelling case can be made in favor of measles eradication, and the authors believe that it is in our future. The question is when.

Disease eradication as a public health strategy: a case study of poliomyelitis eradication.

Disease eradication as a public health strategy was discussed at international meetings in 1997 and 1998. In this article, the ongoing poliomyelitis eradication initiative is examined using the criteria for evaluating candidate diseases for eradication proposed at these meetings, which covered costs and benefits, biological determinants of eradicability (technical feasibility) and societal and political considerations (operational feasibility). The benefits of poliomyelitis eradication are shown to include a substantial investment in health services delivery, the elimination of a major cause of disability, and far-reaching intangible effects, such as establishment of a "culture of prevention". The costs are found to be financial and finite, despite some disturbances to the delivery of other health services. The "technical" feasibility of poliomyelitis eradication is seen in the absence of a non-human reservoir and the presence of both an effective intervention and delivery strategy (oral poliovirus vaccine and national immunization days) and a sensitive and specific diagnostic tool (viral culture of specimens from acute flaccid paralysis cases). The certification of poliomyelitis eradication in the Americas in 1994 and interruption of endemic transmission in the Western Pacific since March 1997 confirm the operational feasibility of this goal. When the humanitarian, economic and consequent benefits of this initiative are measured against the costs, a strong argument is made for eradication as a valuable disease control strategy.

Poliovirus vaccines. Progress toward global poliomyelitis eradication and changing routine immunization recommendations in the United States.

Poliomyelitis prevention in the United States has relied virtually exclusively on OPV during the past 30 years. Starting in 1997, a major change in the poliomyelitis vaccination policy occurred, facilitated by substantial progress toward worldwide poliomyelitis eradication. A sequential schedule of IPV followed by OPV became the preferred means to prevent poliomyelitis, although an all-OPV and an all-IPV schedule were considered acceptable alternatives. In 1999, two doses of IPV were recommended to start the primary series, followed by two doses of either poliovirus vaccine. As of January 2000, an all-IPV schedule is currently being implemented in the United States for routine childhood vaccination. Several unusual features are associated with the major public health policy change from an all-OPV to a sequential schedule, including (1) the process of involving a neutral party (i.e., the IOM); (2) the perceived concerns expressed before the change in policy with regard to provider and parent compliance, which could affect the hard-earned gains in raising immunization coverage rates; (3) the ethical issues surrounding the change (e.g., societal versus individual protection) and the influence that a single case of VAPP may have on national policy; (4) the relative lack of importance of cost-effectiveness data; and (5) the weight of progress in the global polio eradication initiative spurring the change in the United States and, increasingly, in other industrialized countries. The IOM assisted in the evaluation of the national poliomyelitis vaccination policy in 1977 and again in 1988. The 1988 review recommended that a sequential IPV-OPV schedule be considered at such time that a combination vaccine becomes available. Also, the IOM raised several important questions. Extensive research to address the questions raised by the IOM had been conducted so that, in 1996, more data were available for the decision-making process. The primary reasons for the change in vaccination policy were (1) the continued occurrence of VAPP in the absence of indigenously acquired wildtype poliovirus-associated paralytic disease, (2) the reduced risk for importation and spread of wild-type poliovirus caused by the progress of the global polio eradication initiative, (3) evidence from vaccine trials that combined IPV-OPV schedules are safe and immunogenic, and (4) maintenance of high levels of population immunity to poliovirus. The global effect of a national change in poliomyelitis vaccination policy was also considered in this policy-making process. Some members of the public health and medical communities raised objections that an increased reliance on IPV in the United States could lead other countries, especially developing countries, to inappropriately abandon OPV and increase reliance on IPV for routine vaccination. Experience from the global smallpox eradication campaign indicated that this scenario was unlikely. The United States ceased vaccinating against smallpox in 1971, 6 years before smallpox was eliminated from the world, without jeopardizing the global smallpox campaign. Subsequently, the effect on the global eradication initiative has been negligible. This article illustrates the potential discrepancy between expressed theoretic concerns about the number of injections and the actual practice once vaccination policy recommendations become the standard of care and that appropriate training and education can overcome these initial concerns. The authors found that compliance with the recommended use of IPV for the first and second doses as part of the sequential schedule was high, independent of socioeconomic status and ethnicity. The need for additional injections did not present a barrier to completion of the recommended childhood immunization schedule. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Outbreak of poliomyelitis in Gizan, Saudi Arabia: cocirculation of wild type 1 polioviruses from three separate origins.

In 1989, a localized outbreak of 10 cases of poliomyelitis occurred in Saudi Arabia. Wild poliovirus type 1 was isolated from 5 patients. To determine the patterns of poliovirus circulation, partial nucleotide sequences of the poliovirus isolates were compared. These isolates were remarkably diverse. Two isolates were closely related to each other and to viruses isolated during the 1988 epidemic in Oman. Two other isolates were very similar to viruses found in Egypt. The fifth isolate was distantly related to the latter pair. The molecular data suggest that the 10 cases represented three separate outbreaks. The virologic findings underscore the potential for Saudi Arabia, which receives millions of guest workers and their families each year from countries in which polio is endemic, to be exposed to frequent importations of wild polioviruses. To restrict the circulation of imported polioviruses, Saudi Arabia must maintain high population immunity to poliovirus in all geopolitical divisions.

National immunization days: state of the art.

National immunization days (NIDs) are nationwide mass campaigns to deliver supplemental doses of oral poliovirus vaccine to interrupt the circulation of wild polioviruses. They constitute one of the critical strategies for global poliomyelitis eradication and should be implemented in all countries with widespread poliovirus transmission. The certification of wild poliovirus eradication from the Western Hemisphere in September 1994 verified the effectiveness of this aspect of the World Health Organization's (WHO) overall strategy for polio eradication by the year 2000. NIDs require careful advanced planning and orchestration by each country. WHO provides specific guidelines for NIDs regarding the season, target age group, duration, frequency, inclusion of other interventions, vaccine delivery strategies, and evaluation. With strong routine immunization programs and the effective implementation of NIDs, "mop-up" campaigns, and acute flaccid paralysis surveillance, the goal of global polio eradication will be achieved.

Increased immunogenicity of oral poliovirus vaccine administered in mass vaccination campaigns compared with the routine vaccination program in Jordan.

To compare the immunogenicity of routine versus mass campaign doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), serum neutralizing antibodies were measured in 254 children before and after two mass vaccination campaigns in Jordan. Precampaign seroprevalences to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 in children who had received three, four, or five routine doses of OPV were compared with postcampaign seroprevalences in children who had received one, two, or three routine doses plus two mass campaign doses. Seroprevalences were consistently higher in subgroups that received two doses through mass campaigns than in subgroups that received all doses through the routine program, especially for poliovirus type 3. Geometric mean titers were also consistently higher for mass campaign subgroups, particularly for poliovirus type 3. The findings suggest that adding further doses of OPV to the routine schedule is unlikely to have as great an impact on the immune state of children as administering the same number of doses during mass campaigns.

Effect of target age of supplemental immunization campaigns on poliomyelitis occurrence in China.

The World Health Organization recommends conducting supplemental immunization activities to eradicate poliomyelitis by the year 2000. Although effective in eliminating poliomyelitis from the Americas, supplemental campaigns require substantial resources. To assess differential campaign effectiveness in eliminating this disease, poliomyelitis occurrence was compared in counties in China that targeted children <3 versus <4 years of age. Counties that targeted children <3 years of age reported poliomyelitis more frequently after the campaigns. This association was observed even after accounting for the effects of previous poliomyelitis occurrence, urban versus rural setting, and population density. While several limitations emphasize the preliminary nature of these findings, these data support targeting the widest possible age group of susceptible children to ensure maximum effectiveness in eliminating poliomyelitis. Thus, while reducing the target age of these activities may result in considerable resource savings, such campaigns may not be as effective in eliminating poliomyelitis.

Mumps surveillance--United States, 1988-1993.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: CDC monitors the incidence of mumps in the United States through the passive reporting of cases to its National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: 1988-1993. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Weekly reports to the NNDSS from 48 states and the District of Columbia were used to calculate incidence rates for mumps. State immunization requirements were obtained from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. RESULTS: After the licensure of mumps vaccine in the United States in December 1967 and the subsequent introduction of state immunization laws in an increasing number of states, the reported incidence of mumps decreased substantially. The 1,692 cases of mumps reported for 1993 represent the lowest number of cases ever reported to NNDSS and a 99% decrease from the 152,209 cases reported for 1968. During 1988-1993, most cases occurred in children 5-14 years of age (52%) and in persons > or = 15 years of age (36%). Although the incidence decreased in all age groups, the largest decreases (> 50% reduction in incidence rate per 100,000 population) occurred in persons > or = 10 years of age. Overall, the incidence of mumps was lowest in states that had comprehensive school immunization laws requiring mumps vaccination and highest in states that did not have such requirements. INTERPRETATION: Because of the extensive use of mumps vaccine and the increased number of states that had enacted mumps immunization laws, the number of reported mumps cases decreased further since the marked decline that began during the early 1970s. The earlier shift in incidence from children of school ages to older persons that was noted during 1985-1988 continued until 1992, when the proportion of cases occurring in children of school ages increased and exceeded the proportions occurring in other age groups. ACTIONS TAKEN: All health-care providers are encouraged to a) report mumps cases to their local and state health departments for transmission to NNDSS and b) enact school immunization laws requiring mumps vaccination.

Defining surrogate serologic tests with respect to predicting protective vaccine efficacy: poliovirus vaccination.

Inactivated and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccines contain either formalin-inactivated or live, attenuated poliovirus, respectively, of the three serotypes. Interference among the three attenuated poliovirus serotypes was minimized with a "balanced-formulation" vaccine, and serologic responses after IPV were optimized by adjusting the antigenic content of each inactivated poliovirus serotype. Seroconversion is dependent on both the relative content as well as the absolute quantity of virus in the vaccine. The "gold standard" method to assess humoral antibody responses following vaccination is the neutralization assay. Any detectable titer of neutralizing antibody against poliovirus is considered protective against clinical paralytic diseases. Recently, standard procedures were adopted for conducting neutralization assays. Efforts are being undertaken now to develop a combined diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and pertussis vaccine and IPV vaccine in the United States using a dual-chambered syringe that mixes the content of both vaccines at the time of injection; this approach is necessary to overcome the potential detrimental effect of thimerosal on IPV (the preservative in DTP). Other vaccines that combine DTP and/or Haemophilus influenzae type b and/or hepatitis B with IPV appear feasible but require further investigation. New combination vaccines should induce similar or superior levels of neutralizing antibody in serum for individual protection against paralytic disease and mucosal immunity that effectively decreases viral replication in the intestine and pharynx for population protection against transmission of poliovirus.