Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management.

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

Targeting critical source areas for phosphorus losses: Evaluation with soil testing, farmers' assessment and modelling.

Diffuse phosphorus (P) losses from arable land need to be reduced in a cost-efficient way, taking into account their temporal and spatial variability. This study, based on 16 farms across southern Sweden, examined possibilities for identifying critical source areas for P losses based on the combined results of high-resolution erosion modelling, independent risk assessments by farmers, soil survey and SWOT analysis performed by farmers. Statistically significant differences in dissolved P release were found between soil P test classes in the studied area, whereas soil textural classes and not P content governed potential mobilisation of soil particles and unreactive P. Spatial comparison of problem areas identified by farmers and modelled features showed that the modelled erosion pathways intersected 109 in a total of 128 (85%) observed problem areas. The study demonstrates the value in involving farmers in the identification of critical source areas in order to select and support implementation of effective countermeasures.

Designing cost efficient buffer zone programs: An application of the FyrisSKZ tool in a Swedish catchment.

Riparian buffer zones are the only measure which has been used extensively in Sweden to reduce phosphorus losses from agricultural land. This paper describes how the FyrisSKZ web tool can be used to evaluate allocation scenarios using data from the Svärta River, an agricultural catchment located in central Sweden. Three scenarios are evaluated: a baseline, a uniform 6-m-wide buffer zone in each sub-catchment, and an allocation of areas of buffer zones to sub-catchments based on the average cost of reduction. The total P reduction increases by 30 % in the second scenario compared to the baseline scenario, and the average reduction per hectare increases by 90 % while total costs of the program fall by 32 %. In the third scenario, the average cost per unit of reduction (163 kg P(-1)) is the lowest of the three scenarios (58 % lower than the baseline) and has the lowest total program costs.

Phase-in of nonpoint sources in a transferable discharge permit system for water quality management: setting permit prices.

The composite market design is a proposal for a transferable discharge permit system that specifically includes agricultural non-point-source dischargers and addresses both property rights and transaction cost problems. The first step to implementation of a composite market scheme is the estimation of a supply curve for abatement measures in the catchment area. Estimation is performed by combining costs with modeled loss reductions from selected best management practices and then using this information to estimate the supply curve for abatement, which in turn can then be used to set permit prices. The Rönneå catchment in southern Sweden is used as a pilot study area for making this type of estimate. Costs for existing measures that reduce nutrient losses from farmland (catch crops and spring planting) are based on existing programs financed by the Swedish Agricultural Board. A set of supply curves is calculated for these measures using retention estimates for seven subcatchments and three soil types in the area. Although existing information is sufficient to calculate partial supply curves and may be used to set permit prices, additional measures should be included as well as an increased number of variables for differentiating site specific reduction costs.