Bayesian analysis of the geographical variation of type 1 diabetes mellitus in under 15 yr olds in northeast Spain, 1991-2009.

OBJECTIVE: High variability has been observed in type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM1) incidence rates (IRs) in childhood. The aim of this study was to characterize DM1 in Aragón and to identify variations in the geographical pattern by gender. METHODS: A descriptive and ecological study was conducted to determine geographical variations in the DM1 incidence for the period 1991-2009. The source of information was the registry of DM1. To determine data completeness, a capture-recapture analysis was performed. Cases were georeferenced according to the Basic Healthcare Area (BHA) of residence. IRs for both genders, age group, 5 yr of diagnosis, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. Geographical pattern was studied applying Bayesian statistical model. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), smoothed SIR, and the posteriori risk probability (PRP) were represented cartographically for BHA stratified by gender. RESULTS: The completeness was 93.5%. The global IR was 19.2 cases/10(5) person-years (95% CI: 17.6-20.8), boys 21.4 (95% CI: 19.0-23.8) and girls 16.8 (95% CI: 14.7-19.1). The age-specific rates were significantly lower in the 0-4 year age group with respect to the groups of 5-9 and 10-14 years. For boys, areas with a statistically significant excess of risk were found in the north [smoothed SIR: 118-167.9 and PRP of what the smoothed SIR would be greater than 100 (PRP) above 0.8] and below average risk in the south (smoothed SIR: 65.9-79.1 and PRP less than 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: DM1 IR presented a north-south geographical pattern in boys. This pattern was not observed in girls or when both genders were considered together. Later studies should include gender as an essential variable.

[Men inequalities and liver cirrhosis mortality (Zaragoza, Spain, 1996-2003)]. / Desigualdades y mortalidad por cirrosis en varones (Zaragoza, 1996-2003).

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify geographical differences in mortality from liver cirrhosis in men living in the province of Zaragoza, Spain, as well as its possible association with socioeconomic factors. The utility of the MEDEA project's deprivation index in rural areas was also explored. METHODS: Census tracts were used in Zaragoza city as analysis units and municipalities were used for the rest of the province. Crude and smoothed standardized mortality ratios were calculated for each analysis unit through a Bayesian generalized mixed linear model. A deprivation index was obtained and was included in the model in quartiles. An exploratory analysis was also conducted, including a rural index in the province of Zaragoza. RESULTS: In Zaragoza city, mortality from liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases [code 571 of the 9th International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and K70, K72.1, K73, K74, K76.1.9 of the ICD-10] increased as the deprivation index increased. Mortality in the most deprived areas was twice that in the less deprived areas (relative risk [RR] 2.09, credible interval (CI): 1.53-2.83). In the rest of the province, geographical differences in mortality could not be explained by the deprivation index used. Nevertheless, municipalities with the highest values in the rural index showed a RR of 0.47 (CI: 0.18-0.92) compared with those with the lowest values. CONCLUSIONS: In Zaragoza city, mortality from liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases was higher in the most deprived census tracts than in the most affluent areas. This association was not found in the rest of the province, probably because of the low variability explained by the deprivation index. Municipalities with high rural values had the lowest risk of death from these diseases.