Factors associated with mortality in patients with infected pancreatic necrosis: the "surgery effect".

Severe acute pancreatitis complicated by infection is associated with high mortality. Invasive treatment is indicated in the presence of infected (suspected) pancreatic and/or peripancreatic necrosis (IPN) in the absence of response to intensive medical support. Step-up approach (SUA) has been demonstrated to lower complication rate compared to upfront open surgery. However, this approach has not been associated with lower mortality, and no factors have been studied that could help to identify the high risk patients. In this study, we aimed to analyse those factors associated with mortality following the invasive treatment of IPN, focusing on the role of surgical necrosectomy. A retrospective and observational study based on a multicentre prospective database was conducted. The database was coordinated by the Hospital General Universitario de Alicante, Spain and the Spanish Association of Pancreatology. Demographics, clinical data, and laboratory and imaging findings were collected. Atlanta 2012 criteria were considered to classify acute necrotizing pancreatitis and for the definition of IPN. Step-up approach was used in all centres with the intention of avoiding surgery whenever possible. Surgical necrosectomy was performed by open approach. From January 2013 to October 2014, a total of 1655 patients with the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were included in our database. 1081 were recruited for the final analysis. Out of them, 205 (19%) were classified into acute necrotizing pancreatitis. 77 (8.3%) patients underwent invasive treatment of INP and were included in our study. Overall mortality was 29.9%. Upfront endoscopic or percutaneous drainage was performed in 60 (77.9%) patients and mortality was 26.6%. Out of 60, 22 (36.6%) patients subsequently received rescue surgery; mortality in rescue surgery group was 18.3%. Upfront surgery was carried out in 17 (22.1%) patients; mortality in this group was 41%. At univariate analysis, surgical necrosectomy, extrapancreatic infection, immunosuppression and de-novo haemodialysis were associated with mortality. At multivariate analysis, only surgical necrosectomy was significantly associated with mortality (p = 0.002 OR 3.89). Surgical approach for IPN is associated with high mortality rate. However, these data should be interpreted with caution, since we are not able to assess whether this occurs due to the need of surgery as the only resort when the other approaches are not feasible or fail.

Clinical validation of risk scoring systems to predict risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Endoscopic Resection Group of the Spanish Society of Endoscopy (GSEED-RE) model and the Australian Colonic Endoscopic Resection (ACER) model were proposed to predict delayed bleeding (DB) after EMR of large superficial colorectal lesions, but neither has been validated. We validated and updated these models. METHODS: A multicenter cohort study was performed in patients with nonpedunculated lesions ≥20 mm removed by EMR. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the GSEED-RE and ACER models. Difficulty performing EMR was subjectively categorized as low, medium, or high. We created a new model, including factors associated with DB in 3 cohort studies. RESULTS: DB occurred in 45 of 1034 EMRs (4.5%); it was associated with proximal location (odds ratio [OR], 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-6.16), antiplatelet agents (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, .99-6.34) or anticoagulants (OR, 4.54; 95% CI, 2.14-9.63), difficulty of EMR (OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.41-7.40), and comorbidity (OR, 2.11; 95% CI, .99-4.47). The GSEED-RE and ACER models did not accurately predict DB. Re-estimation and recalibration yielded acceptable results (GSEED-RE area under the curve [AUC], .64 [95% CI, .54-.74]; ACER AUC, .65 [95% CI, .57-.73]). We used lesion size, proximal location, comorbidity, and antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy to generate a new model, the GSEED-RE2, which achieved higher AUC values (.69-.73; 95% CI, .59-.80) and exhibited lower susceptibility to changes among datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The updated GSEED-RE and ACER models achieved acceptable prediction levels of DB. The GSEED-RE2 model may achieve better prediction results and could be used to guide the management of patients after validation by other external groups. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT03050333.).

Influence of age, body mass index and comorbidity on major outcomes in acute pancreatitis, a prospective nation-wide multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: There are few large prospective cohort studies evaluating predictors of outcomes in acute pancreatitis. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the role of age and co-morbid disease in predicting major outcomes in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Data points were collected according to a predefined electronic data collection form. Acute pancreatitis and its complications were defined according to the revised Atlanta classification. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazard regression and multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: From June 2013-February 2015, 1655 adult patients were recruited from 23 centres across Spain. Co-morbid disease, obesity, open surgical necrosectomy within 30 days, and pancreatic necrosis were independently associated with both 30-day mortality and persistent organ failure (p < 0.05 for all). Age was not associated with persistent organ failure, however the extreme of age (>85 years) was associated with mortality (p < 0.05). Co-morbid disease and obesity were not independently associated with a prolonged length of stay or other markers of morbidity on adjusted analysis (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Comorbidity and obesity are important determinates of mortality and persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis, but in the absence of organ failure they do not appear to independently contribute to morbidity. This has important implications for severity classification and predictive models of severity in acute pancreatitis.

IL-6, IL-10 and TNFα do not improve early detection of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography acute pancreatitis: a prospective cohort study.

The most reliable indicators for post-ERCP acute pancreatitis are elevated amylase levels and abdominal pain 24 hours after ERCP. As ERCP is often performed on an outpatient basis, earlier diagnosis is important. We aimed to identify early predictors of post-ERCP pancreatitis. We prospectively analyzed IL-6, IL-10, TNFα, CRP, amylase and lipase before and 4 hours after ERCP, and studied their association with abdominal pain. We included 510 patients. Post-ERCP pancreatitis occurred in 36 patients (7.1%). IL-6, IL-10, TNFα and CRP were not associated with post-ERCP pancreatitis. Levels of amylase and lipase were higher in patients with pancreatitis (522 U/L and 1808 U/L vs. 78 U/L and 61 U/L, respectively; p < 0.001). A cut-off of 218 U/L for amylase (x2.2 ULN) and 355 U/L for lipase (x6 ULN) had a negative predictive value of 99.2% and 99.5%, respectively. Amylase and lipase present a good correlation (Pearson coefficient 0.912). Among 342 (67.1%) patients without abdominal pain at 4 hours, post-ERCP pancreatitis was diagnosed in 8 (2.3%). Only 4 of these patients presented amylase or lipase > 3 ULN. Amylase and lipase were the only markers of post-ERCP pancreatitis 4 hours after the procedure.

A Scoring System to Determine Risk of Delayed Bleeding After Endoscopic Mucosal Resection of Large Colorectal Lesions.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: After endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of colorectal lesions, delayed bleeding is the most common serious complication, but there are no guidelines for its prevention. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with delayed bleeding that required medical attention after discharge until day 15 and develop a scoring system to identify patients at risk. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 1214 consecutive patients with nonpedunculated colorectal lesions 20 mm or larger treated by EMR (n = 1255) at 23 hospitals in Spain, from February 2013 through February 2015. Patients were examined 15 days after the procedure, and medical data were collected. We used the data to create a delayed bleeding scoring system, and assigned a weight to each risk factor based on the ß parameter from multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients were classified as being at low, average, or high risk for delayed bleeding. RESULTS: Delayed bleeding occurred in 46 cases (3.7%, 95% confidence interval, 2.7%-4.9%). In multivariate analysis, factors associated with delayed bleeding included age ≥75 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; P < .01), American Society of Anesthesiologist classification scores of III or IV (OR, 1.90; P ≤ .05), aspirin use during EMR (OR, 3.16; P < .05), right-sided lesions (OR, 4.86; P < .01), lesion size ≥40 mm (OR, 1.91; P ≤ .05), and a mucosal gap not closed by hemoclips (OR, 3.63; P ≤ .01). We developed a risk scoring system based on these 6 variables that assigned patients to the low-risk (score, 0-3), average-risk (score, 4-7), or high-risk (score, 8-10) categories with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83). In these groups, the probabilities of delayed bleeding were 0.6%, 5.5%, and 40%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions is 3.7%. We developed a risk scoring system based on 6 factors that determined the risk for delayed bleeding (receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77). The factors most strongly associated with delayed bleeding were right-sided lesions, aspirin use, and mucosal defects not closed by hemoclips. Patients considered to be high risk (score, 8-10) had a 40% probability of delayed bleeding.

Somatostatin for prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis: a randomized, double-blind trial.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Meta-analyses suggest that an intravenous bolus or a high dose continuous infusion of somatostatin reduces the incidence of acute pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Clinical guidelines, however, do not recommend this prophylaxis. The aim of this randomized, double-blind clinical trial was to evaluate the effect of somatostatin on the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing ERCP at a single center were randomized to either intravenous bolus of somatostatin followed by a short (4-hour) continuous infusion, or to a similar placebo regimen. The primary outcome was post-ERCP pancreatitis, defined as abdominal pain with an amylase level at least three times higher than the upper limit of normality 24 hours after the ERCP and requiring admission for at least 2 days. RESULTS: A total of 510 patients were enrolled (255 patients per group) and all completed follow-up. The main indications for ERCP were choledocholithiasis (62 %), and biliary malignant stricture (31 %). Post-ERCP pancreatitis occurred in 19 patients (7.5 %) in the somatostatin group and 17 patients (6.7 %) in the placebo group (relative risk [RR] 1.12, 95 % confidence interval [95 %CI] 0.59 - 2.1; P = 0.73). The number of cases of moderate or severe acute pancreatitis was similar in the somatostatin (2.4 %) and the placebo (3.5 %) groups (RR 0.67, 95 %CI 0.24 - 1.85, P = 0.43). No side effects were observed related to the use of somatostatin. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of an intravenous bolus of somatostatin followed by a short continuous infusion does not reduce the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis. Clinical Trials.gov number: NCT01060826.