Long-term evaluation of T-cell subset changes after effective combination antiretroviral therapy during asymptomatic HIV-infection.

Demonstration of long-lived HIV-reservoirs resistant to the effects of combination antiretroviral therapy raises concern over the ability of treatment to maintain long-term beneficial alterations in T-cell subset composition. To address this issue, we have examined the effect of antiretroviral therapy on T-cell subset change during early HIV-infection in a 2-year prospective open-label trial composed of treatment-naive asymptomatic HIV-infected patients with CD4+ T-cell counts > or =400 cells/microl. Therapy consisted of double (zidovudine and lamivudine) or triple (zidovudine, lamivudine, and ritonavir) combination antiretroviral therapy. Retrospective analysis based on magnitude of viral suppression was used to characterize responder and nonresponder groups. Among responders, long-term antiretroviral therapy maintained a significant increase in numbers of total CD4+, naive CD4+/CD45RA+, and memory CD4+/CD45RO+ T cells. A concomitant significant decrease in numbers of memory CD8+/CD45RO+ and both activated CD8+/HLA-DR+ and CD8+/CD38+ T cells was also maintained. In contrast, long-term antiretroviral therapy among nonresponders led only to a significant increase in the numbers of CD4+ T cells and a significant reduction in numbers of activated CD8+/HLA-DR+ T cells. The long-term ability of antiretroviral therapy during early asymptomatic HIV-infection to maintain reversal of disease-induced T-cell activation and maturation abnormalities continues to support the concept that immunologic advantage is gained by commencing early aggressive antiretroviral therapy. Nevertheless, continued management of T-cell subset recovery is significantly more effective in the presence of completely suppressed viral replication.

Reanalysis of unruptured intracranial aneurysm management: effect of a new international study on the threshold probabilities.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates previous clinical decision analysis for patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UN-AN) based on newly published data and discusses the role of reanalysis in individual decision making. METHODS: The authors employed probabilities for the natural history of UN-AN and results of preventive surgery based on the report by the International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with Monte Carlo simulation and traditional n-way sensitivity analyses were used to assess the uncertainty of clinical decisions. RESULTS: The baseline decision in favor of preventive surgery is reversed by new data from the international study. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed several populations showing heterogeneity in terms of strategy selection. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses detected two important factors for decision making: annual rupture rate and utility for knowingly living with UN-AN. CONCLUSIONS: Annual UN-AN rupture rate and the utility for knowingly living with UN-AN are key factors when deciding on a therapeutic strategy. Also, updating published decision analyses can improve clinical decision making by integrating clinical judgment and newly available clinical data.

Impact of TNFalpha, LTalpha, Fc gammaRII and complement receptor on HIV-1 trapping in lymphoid tissue from HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate HIV trapping mechanisms in patients with acute infection and in asymptomatic individuals prior to and during antiretroviral therapy. To determine the role of complement receptor (CR), Fc gamma receptor II (Fc gammaRII), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha), and lymphotoxin alpha (LTalpha) expression in HIV trapping efficiency. METHODS: Lymphoid tissues from three acutely HIV-infected patients and six asymptomatic, chronically HIV-infected patients collected prior to and during antiretroviral therapy were compared with lymphoid tissues from six HIV-seronegative subjects. HIV, TNFalpha and LTalpha RNA expression was detected and quantified by fluorescence in situ hybridization. CR, Fc gammaRII and HIV p24 antigen were detected and quantified by fluorescence immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: The amount of trapped HIV did not differ significantly between patients with acute HIV infection and asymptomatic individuals, and was independent of the presence of CR or Fc gammaRII expression. However, in patients with acute infection, the amount of trapped virus was correlated inversely with the number of HIV-infected cells (P = 0.0092) and with the size of the light zone (P = 0.037). In these patients, the number of TNFalpha-expressing cells was correlated inversely with the amount of trapped virus (P = 0.014) and positively correlated with the size of the light zone in germinal centers (P = 0.041). No correlations were observed between TNFalpha or LTalpha expression and Fc gammaRII or CR expression. CONCLUSION: This report provides the first evidence that in humans TNFalpha is involved in the development of lymphoid follicles, HIV trapping, and, consequently, in early host immune responses. A model is proposed for early events in patients during acute HIV infection.

Decision analysis of prophylactic treatment for patients with high-risk esophageal varices.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision analyses were conducted to quantify the uncertainty and to identify important factors in selection of prophylactic therapy for patients with esophageal varices. METHODS: A Markov model compared variceal ligation, beta-blockers, and "watchful waiting" strategies in terms of bleeding-free life years. Transition probabilities were obtained from meta-analyses of published data. A hypothetical 50-year-old white man with high-risk esophageal varices and cirrhosis served as the prototypical baseline case. Traditional n-way sensitivity analyses were applied to clarify the influence of each factor, and Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to investigate clinical uncertainty. RESULTS: Probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that 77.0% of hypothetical cases had more bleeding-free life years after variceal ligation, whereas 23% had more when treated with beta-blockers. On the basis of one-way sensitivity analyses, only 2 factors (variceal bleeding rates after ligation and treatment with beta-blockers) influenced the strategy choice. CONCLUSIONS: Variceal ligation is an effective prophylactic therapy in many cases, but nearly one quarter of patients with high-risk esophageal varices and cirrhosis may benefit more from prophylactic treatment with beta-blockers. Additional clinical studies identifying key variceal bleeding risk factors may lead to more effective clinical decision making for these patients.

Residual HIV-RNA levels persist for up to 2.5 years in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients on potent antiretroviral therapy.

The long-term response of 10 asymptomatic, antiretroviral therapy-naive HIV-1-infected patients to potent combination antiretroviral therapy was characterized by monitoring levels of HIV-1 RNA in plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), and lymphoid tissue using highly sensitive HIV-1 RNA assays. Although plasma viral loads were continuously suppressed to levels below 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml for up to 2.5 years (60-128 weeks), HIV-1 RNA was still detectable at very low levels (1 to 49 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml) in 25% of the samples. In corresponding PBMC specimens, residual HIV-RNA was detectable in as much as 91% of samples tested (1 to 420 HIV-1 RNA copies/microg total RNA). Similarly, HIV-1 RNA levels in lymphoid tissue also remained detectable at a high frequency (86%). A highly significant correlation was demonstrated between therapy-induced change in PBMC HIV-1 RNA levels and change in plasma HIV-1 RNA levels (r2 = 0.69; p = 0.003). These findings support the concept that measurement of HIV-1 RNA in the easily accessible PBMC compartment is relevant for evaluating the potency of current and future antiretroviral therapies.

Treatment-induced decline of human immunodeficiency virus-1 p24 and HIV-1 RNA in lymphoid tissue of patients with early human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection.

We report detailed quantitative analysis of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) p24 and HIV-1 RNA in tonsil biopsies from 13 patients with early, asymptomatic HIV infection before and during combination antiretroviral therapy. Using fluorescent microscopy in conjunction with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction of frozen tissue sections, we show that plasma and tissue viral loads decreased by approximately 3 logs during the 1-year treatment period, with good correlation between the HIV-1 p24 and HIV-1 RNA response in tissue. The decrease of tissue viral load was delayed compared to plasma viral load, possibly explained by the observation that the amount of follicular dendritic cell-associated virus correlated best with the area under the curve of plasma HIV-1 RNA throughout the last 12 weeks. Before and during treatment, the relative proportions of HIV-1 on follicular dendritic cells and within mononuclear cells remained constant, suggesting similar decay characteristics in these two lymphoid tissue compartments. However, viral p24 or RNA remained almost always detectable in tissue despite full suppression of HIV-1 RNA in plasma, and increased even after short-term rebounds in plasma viral load. Thus, full and sustained suppression of viral replication was required to efficiently decrease viral load in lymphoid tissue, but complete abolition of residual viral replication was not achieved.

Incomplete HIV-1 activation in latently infected U1 cells demonstrated by double in situ hybridization.

Triple combination antiretroviral therapy can reduce HIV-1 infection to a relatively small pool of latently infected cells. To eliminate this residual source of virus, new therapies designed to activate latently infected cells are currently being tested. We therefore investigated the kinetics of in vitro HIV-1 RNA induction using chronically infected U1 cells. A new two-probe fluorescence in situ hybridization (double ISH) method was devised to simultaneously assess total HIV-1 RNA (T-RNA) and unspliced HIV-1 RNA (U-RNA) expression in individual cells. Activation of the U1 cells resulted in increasing expression of T-RNA between 0 and 24 h with lagging expression of U-RNA between 6 and 30 h. Both the positive area per cell and the number of positive cells increased with time. Although activation induced 98.5% of the cells to express HIV-1 T-RNA by 24 h, 52% remained negative for U-RNA. In contrast, 100% of 8E5 cells, which constitutively express HIV-1, scored positive for U-RNA as well as T-RNA with the double ISH. This study provides, for the first time, a semiquantitative cell-by-cell analysis of HIV-1 mRNA subsets in latently infected cells. Our results establish the advantages of using double fluorescence ISH to study gene expression and demonstrate that chronically infected U1 cells remain in a partially induced state despite potent activation.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 p24 concentration measured by boosted ELISA of heat-denatured plasma correlates with decline in CD4 cells, progression to AIDS, and survival: comparison with viral RNA measurement.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA and p24 antigen concentrations were determined in plasma samples from 169 chronically infected patients (median CD4 cell count, 140 cells/microL; range, 0-1500 cells/microL). p24 quantification involved heat-mediated immune complex dissociation and tyramide signal amplification-boosted ELISA, which has a diagnostic sensitivity similar to that of RNA quantification by a commercial polymerase chain reaction kit. In Cox's proportional hazard models adjusted for CD4 cell count, both RNA (P<.005) and p24 (P=.043) levels were significant predictors of progression to AIDS. Measurement of p24 was superior to measurement of RNA in the model for survival (P=.032 vs. P=.19). p24 level was a significant predictor of CD4 cell decline in models adjusted for CD4 cell counts and was superior or equivalent to RNA level, depending on the group analyzed. Stratification by CD4 cell counts at baseline showed that the superiority of p24 measurement was more pronounced at lower levels of CD4 cells (<200/microL). p24 level may be of interest as a simple and inexpensive predictive marker of disease progression.

Time of initiation of antiretroviral therapy: impact on HIV-1 viraemia. The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The current recommendation that patients infected with HIV-1 be treated early is based on little evidence. We examined whether the early initiation of antiretroviral treatment affects residual HIV-1 viraemia. METHODS: Viraemia was measured using an assay with a detection limit of 3 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml in drug-naive patients who started antiretroviral therapy at the time of primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) (n = 10), during chronic infection without immune suppression (CD4 cell counts > or = 500/mm3; median 577) (n = 10), or after immune suppression developed (CD4 cell counts < 500/mm3; median 113) (n = 21). RESULTS: In 249 samples collected 24 to 120 weeks after treatment initiation, the mean proportion of samples with HIV-1 RNA levels of less than 3 copies/ml was 75% for PHI patients compared with 32 and 8% for immunocompetent and immunosuppressed chronically infected patients, respectively. Fifty per cent of PHI patients, but none of the chronically infected patients, had persistently fewer than 3 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL. PHI patients had lower residual HIV-1 RNA levels than chronically infected patients, and immunocompetent patients had lower residual HIV-1 RNA levels than immunosuppressed patients (all pairwise, P< 0.001). The mean residual HIV-1 RNA level was independently associated with the initiation of therapy during PHI and baseline CD4 cell counts (P < 0.001 for both associations). CONCLUSION: Viraemia levels are associated with clinical progression and predict virological treatment failure. The initiation of antiretroviral therapy at the time of PHI and while CD4 cell counts are high results in lower residual viraemia. These results support early antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients.

Effects of early antiretroviral treatment on HIV-1 RNA in blood and lymphoid tissue: a randomized trial of double versus triple therapy. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

To assess the effects of early initiation of antiretroviral therapy on cell-free and cell-associated viral load in blood and lymphoid tissue, we performed a randomized, open-label, multicenter trial comparing a double (zidovudine + lamivudine) and triple (zidovudine + lamivudine + ritonavir) drug combination in treatment-naive, asymptomatic patients with CD4 counts >400 cells/microl. HIV-1 RNA was measured in plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and sequential tonsil or lymph node biopsies (27 patients); the study follow-up was 2 years. Among 42 randomized patients, the proportion with plasma HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml was 16% and 74% at week 24 (p<.001) in those randomized to double and triple therapy, respectively, necessitating frequent treatment intensification in the double arm. After a rapid decline within 4 weeks in both arms, cell-associated HIV-1 RNA decreased further only in those patients with sustained suppression of plasma viral load, but remained almost always detectable at low levels, indicating persisting transcription of viral RNA. CD4 counts increased by 200 to 250 cells/microl at week 96 in both arms without significant differences (intent-to-treat analyses). Thus, even if treatment is initiated early in asymptomatic patients with preserved CD4 counts, three drugs are necessary to achieve sustained decreases of HIV load in blood and lymphoid tissue.

Potent antiretroviral treatment of HIV-infection results in suppression of the seminal shedding of HIV. The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The amount of HIV in semen likely influences infectiousness. Antiretroviral therapy decreases HIV-RNA in semen, but data on HIV concentrations in semen in a large cohort of men with suppressed HIV-RNA in blood is unavailable. METHODS: Male patients with a treatment-induced reduction of HIV-RNA load in plasma below 400 copies/ml were asked to donate a semen and blood sample. Blood and seminal plasma were tested for the presence of HIV-RNA by the NucliSens method (detection limit 400 copies/ml). Seminal cell samples from 67 patients were further analysed for the presence of HIV-DNA using a nested DNA-polymerase chain reaction. Results of RNA and DNA testing in semen were compared with 55 HIV-positive antiretroviral therapy-naive men. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients participated in the study. Seminal plasma HIV-RNA was detectable in only two patients [1.8%, 95% confidence ratio (CI), 0-4.2%] compared with a detection frequency of 67% in untreated controls [Odds ratio (OR), 0.01; 95% CI, 0-0.03]. Detection of cell-associated HIV-DNA in semen was significantly less frequent (16 versus 38%) in patients receiving suppressive therapy compared with untreated controls (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.12-0.80). CONCLUSION: In patients with treatment-induced suppression of blood viral load the likelihood of having detectable HIV in semen is very low (< 4%). In addition, seminal shedding of cell-free and cell-associated HIV is significantly lower than in an untreated population of HIV-infected asymptomatic men. On a population basis, this effect of therapy may help to reduce sexual transmission of HIV. However, individual patients may still be infected as evidenced by continued shedding of cells harbouring the HIV provirus.

PCR-derived ssDNA probes for fluorescent in situ hybridization to HIV-1 RNA.

We developed a simple and rapid technique to synthesize single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) probes for fluorescent in situ hybridization (ISH) to human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) RNA. The target HIV-1 regions were amplified by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and were simultaneously labeled with dUTP. This product served as template for an optimized asymmetric PCR (one-primer PCR) that incorporated digoxigenin (dig)-labeled dUTP. The input DNA was subsequently digested by uracil DNA glycosylase, leaving intact, single-stranded, digoxigenin-labeled DNA probe. A cocktail of ssDNA probes representing 55% of the HIV-1 genome was hybridized to HIV-1-infected 8E5 T-cells and uninfected H9 T-cells. For comparison, parallel hybridizations were done with a plasmid-derived RNA probe mix covering 85% of the genome and a PCR-derived RNA probe mix covering 63% of the genome. All three probe types produced bright signals, but the best signal-to-noise ratios and the highest sensitivities were obtained with the ssDNA probe. In addition, the ssDNA probe syntheses generated large amounts of probe (0.5 to 1 microg ssDNA probe per synthesis) and were easier to perform than the RNA probe syntheses. These results suggest that ssDNA probes may be preferable to RNA probes for fluorescent ISH. (J Histochem Cytochem 48:285-293, 2000)

Impaired liver function and retroviral activity are risk factors contributing to HIV-associated thrombocytopenia. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between thrombopoetin (TPO) serum levels and HIV-associated thrombocytopenia. DESIGN AND METHODS: The relationship between TPO levels and severity of HIV-associated thrombocytopenia was investigated. Thirty-eight patients (19 patients with 30-96x10(9) platelets/l and 19 patients with <10x10(9) platelets/l) were matched with 38 HIV-positive non-thrombocytopenic patients (>150x10(9) platelets/l). RESULTS: HIV-positive patients with normal platelet counts had a median TPO serum level of 137 pg/ml. Patients with 30-96x10(9) platelets/l had decreased TPO levels with a median of 90 pg/ml (P = 0.016), and were more likely to have elevated serum aspartate-transferase levels (P<0.001) and hepatomegaly by palpation or ultrasound imaging (P = 0.005). The median TPO serum level of HIV-infected patients with severe thrombocytopenia was 110 pg/ml (non-significant). All patients with severe thrombocytopenia were positive for antibodies against hepatitis B virus core antigen, compared with 80% of HIV-infected persons without thrombocytopenia. Patients with severe thrombocytopenia were more likely to have high HIV replication compared to patients with normal platelet counts (P = 0.02), and reduction of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels was associated with increasing platelet counts. Severe thrombocytopenia was not associated with liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: Liver disease predisposes for low TPO serum levels and mild thrombocytopenia. High retroviral activity predisposes for severe, immune thrombocytopenic purpura-like thrombocytopenia. At least two distinct categories of severe HIV-associated thrombocytopenia exist, one responsive to antiretroviral treatment and one non-responsive to antiretroviral treatment.

Lack of association between Borna disease virus infection and neurological disorders among HIV-infected individuals.

Viruses have been proposed as etiologic cofactors in the pathogenesis of HIV-related neurological disease. To investigate the etiologic potential of Borna disease virus (BDV) in these disorders, two populations were studied: (1) 27 prospectively identified patients with various neurological disorders were evaluated with BDV RT-PCR (CSF, PBMC), and BDV serology, and (2) a separate group of 25 retrospectively studied patients with AIDS dementia complex was evaluated using BDV serology only. A novel, BDV p40 gene RT-PCR assay was developed: conserved primers were used in a non-nested amplification, detecting less than 100 BDV RNA copies and all of nine wild-type, confirmed animal BDV infections. BDV seroprevalences were 12.5% and 8.0%, respectively, which are similar to the general HIV-infected population. None of the prospectively studied patients had detectable BDV RNA in their CSF or PBMC. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that BDV infections are responsible for HIV-related neurological disorders.

Highly sensitive methods for quantitation of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA from plasma, cells, and tissues.

Precise and sensitive quantitation of viral RNA in specimens from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals has become an indispensable tool for the monitoring of the efficacy of highly active antiretroviral combination therapy. The present report describes reproducible and efficient protocols with enhanced sensitivity for quantitation of HIV-1 RNA from plasma, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and tissues with Qiagen silica columns for RNA purification combined with the Roche Amplicor HIV-1 Monitor test for quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). Extraction of RNA from 0.5 ml of plasma resulted in the detection of fewer than 20 HIV RNA copies/ml of plasma, equivalent to the centrifugation-based boosted RT-PCR assay. Silica extraction of cellular RNA resulted in the detection of fewer than 3 HIV-1 RNA copies/microg of total RNA. These techniques facilitate direct comparisons of viral loads between liquid and cellular specimens. Application of these sensitive methods may improve the assessment of the response to new antiretroviral regimens.

Human herpesvirus 6 infections after bone marrow transplantation: clinical and virologic manifestations.

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) DNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells were prospectively evaluated in 20 cytomegalovirus-seronegative allogeneic marrow transplant patients and in 10 healthy control subjects. Blood and saliva specimens obtained weekly for 3 months after transplant were evaluated by quantitative HHV-6 polymerase chain reaction. One of 20 patients experienced primary HHV-6 infection after marrow transplant (seroconversion, HHV-6 viremia, skin rash); 18 of 20 had increased peripheral blood mononuclear cell HHV-6 DNA levels consistent with asymptomatic reactivations, and 1 patient experienced a reactivation-associated skin rash. Genotyping revealed HHV-6 variant B DNA in all cases. Therapy with acyclovir or intravenous immunoglobulin was not correlated with lower HHV-6 DNA levels. Thus, asymptomatic HHV-6 reactivations appear to be common following allogeneic marrow transplantation. Among HHV-6-seronegative and viral DNA-negative patients, primary HHV-6 infection can ensue in association with self-limited clinical symptoms, including diffuse maculopapular rash.

Highly active antiretroviral therapy during early HIV infection reverses T-cell activation and maturation abnormalities. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of early initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on disease-induced T-cell activation and maturation abnormalities during asymptomatic HIV infection. DESIGN: A prospective open-label trial of zidovudine, lamivudine and ritonavir in treatment-naive asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cells > or = 400 x 10(6)/l. METHODS: Peripheral blood CD4+ and CD8+ T cells derived from 15 asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals (median baseline CD4+ cells, 608 x 10(6)/l; CD8+ cells, 894 x 10(6)/l; plasma HIV RNA, 3.93 log10 copies/ml) undergoing therapy with zidovudine (300 mg twice daily), lamivudine (150 mg twice daily), and ritonavir (600 mg twice daily) were assessed for changes in expression of phenotypic markers of T-cell activation (HLA-DR and CD38) and maturation (CD45RA and CD45RO). At weeks 0, 2, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 and 24, T-cell subsets were quantified by flow cytometry and plasma HIV viral loads determined using reverse transcription PCR. RESULTS: HAART-induced decrease in plasma HIV RNA levels coincided with a significant reduction in numbers of activated CD4+/HLA-DR+ (maximum change, -36%; P < or = 0.05), CD8+/HLA-DR+ (maximum change, -66%; P < or = 0.005) and CD8+/CD38+ (maximum change, -51%; P < or = 0.01) T cells. A concomitant significant increase in numbers of naive CD4+/CD45RA+ (maximum change, +12%; P < or = 0.005) and memory CD4+/CD45RO+ (maximum change, +6%; P < or = 0.05) T cells was also evident, which contrasted with a significant decrease in memory CD8+/CD45RO+ cells (maximum change, -42%; P < or = 0.005). CONCLUSION: The observed ability of HAART during early asymptomatic HIV infection to initiate rapid reversal of disease-induced T-cell activation and maturation abnormalities, while preserving pretherapy levels of immune function, supports the concept that therapeutic advantage is to be gained by commencing early aggressive antiretroviral therapy.

Levels of HIV-infected peripheral blood cells remain stable throughout the natural history of HIV-1 infection. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the relationship between the number of provirus-bearing peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and HIV-1 disease progression during the natural history of infection. DESIGN: Twenty-four HIV-1-infected subjects with known seroconversion dates and long-term follow-up were retrospectively identified using the Swiss HIV Cohort Database. PBMC specimens from this cohort were retrieved from storage for analysis. METHODS: Infected PBMC equivalents were determined by HIV-1 DNA quantitative competitive (QC)-PCR. The results were analysed with respect to HIV-1 disease stage and compared with a mathematical model of long-term HIV-1 disease progression. RESULTS: PBMC HIV-1 DNA did not correlate with major indices of disease progression, including time following primary infection, time before reaching a CD4 cell count less than 200 x 10(6)/l, and time before death. The number of PBMC harbouring HIV-1 provirus was relatively constant throughout the clinical stages of HIV-1 infection, consistent with simulated data from a mathematical model of long-term HIV-1 infection. We also showed that a biased interpretation of the QC-PCR data may arise when the values are expressed as HIV-1 DNA copies per PBMC or per CD4 cell. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that levels of provirus-bearing PBMC remain constant during the natural course of HIV-1 infection, whereas plasma virus load typically increases logarithmically during the same period. The hypothesis that plasma virus levels are directly related to the number of infected cells may deserve reconsideration.