"Important but risky": attitudes of global thought leaders towards cost and value research in health professions education.

Studies of cost and value can inform educational decision making, yet our understanding of the barriers to such research is incomplete. To address this gap, our aim was to explore the attitudes of global thought leaders in HPE towards cost and value research. This was a qualitative virtual interview study underpinned by social constructionism. In telephone or videoconference interviews in 2018-2019, we asked global healthcare professional thought leaders their views regarding HPE cost and value research, outstanding research questions in this area and why addressing these questions was important. Analysis was inductive and thematic, and incorporated review and comments from the original interviewees (member checking). We interviewed 11 thought leaders, nine of whom gave later feedback on our data interpretation (member checking). We identified four themes: Cost research is really important but potentially risky (quantifying and reporting costs provides evidence for decision-making but could lead to increased accountability and loss of autonomy); I don't have the knowledge and skills (lack of economic literacy); it's not what I went into education research to do (professional identity); and it's difficult to generate generalizable findings (the importance of context). This study contributes to a wider conversation in the literature about cost and value research by bringing in the views of global HPE thought leaders. Our findings provide insight to inform how best to engage and empower educators and researchers in the processes of asking and answering meaningful, acceptable and relevant cost and value questions in HPE.

AMEE Guide No. 123 - How to read studies of educational costs.

Healthcare and health professions education share many of the same problems in decision making. In both cases, there is a finite amount of resources, and so choices need to be made between alternatives. To navigate the options available requires effective decision making. Choosing one option requires consideration of its opportunity cost - the benefit forgone of the other competing options. The purpose of this abridged AMEE guide is to introduce educational decision-makers to the economic concept of cost, and how to read studies about educational costs to inform effective cost-conscious decision-making. This guide leads with a brief review of study designs commonly utilized in this field of research, followed by an overview of how study findings are commonly presented. The tutorial will then offer a four-step model for appraising and considering the results of an economic evaluation. It asks the questions: (1) Can I trust the results? (2) What are the results telling me? (3) Could the results be transferred to my context? (4) Should I change my practice?

Audit of ten years of donation after circulatory death experience in Queensland: observations of agonal physiology following withdrawal of cardiorespiratory support.

An audit of ten years' experience in all patients undergoing withdrawal of cardiorespiratory support (WCRS) in the context of donation after circulatory death (DCD) was conducted in Queensland, Australia (2008 to 2017). One hundred and seventy-one patients proceeded to donation after declaration of death by circulatory criteria with loss of pulsatile arterial blood pressure (circulatory arrest) for five minutes. The demographics, times and haemodynamic observations were abstracted, de-identified and collated. The average age of patients was 43 years (standard deviation 16.1 years) and 63% were male. The median and mean times to an agonal systolic blood pressure below 50 mmHg were 10 and 11 minutes and the median and mean times from WCRS to circulatory arrest were 14 and 16 minutes. After systolic blood pressure fell to 50 mmHg or lower, 33 patients (19.3%) had spontaneous return of systolic pressure to above 50 mmHg. Following periods of circulatory arrest, five patients were documented to have spontaneous return of pulsatile arterial pressure. Two patients had return of circulation after two minutes, but less than five minutes of circulatory arrest and three patients had return of circulation where circulatory arrest had been documented for less than two minutes. Following WCRS, transient restoration of circulation following circulatory arrest may occur, even following two minutes of circulatory asystole, albeit rarely.

LRRK2 levels in immune cells are increased in Parkinson's disease.

Mutations associated with leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 are the most common known cause of Parkinson's disease. The known expression of leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 in immune cells and its negative regulatory function of nuclear factor of activated T cells implicates leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 in the development of the inflammatory environment characteristic of Parkinson's disease. The aim of this study was to determine the expression pattern of leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 in immune cell subsets and correlate it with the immunophenotype of cells from Parkinson's disease and healthy subjects. For immunophenotyping, blood cells from 40 Parkinson's disease patients and 32 age and environment matched-healthy control subjects were analyzed by flow cytometry. Multiplexed immunoassays were used to measure cytokine output of stimulated cells. Leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 expression was increased in B cells (p = 0.0095), T cells (p = 0.029), and CD16+ monocytes (p = 0.01) of Parkinson's disease patients compared to healthy controls. Leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 induction was also increased in monocytes and dividing T cells in Parkinson's disease patients compared to healthy controls. In addition, Parkinson's disease patient monocytes secreted more inflammatory cytokines compared to healthy control, and cytokine expression positively correlated with leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 expression in T cells from Parkinson's disease but not healthy controls. Finally, the regulatory surface protein that limits T-cell activation signals, CTLA-4 (cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4), was decreased in Parkinson's disease compared to HC in T cells (p = 0.029). In sum, these findings suggest that leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 has a regulatory role in immune cells and Parkinson's disease. Functionally, the positive correlations between leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 expression levels in T-cell subsets, cytokine expression and secretion, and T-cell activation states suggest that targeting leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 with therapeutic interventions could have direct effects on immune cell function.

Common Genetic Variant Association with Altered HLA Expression, Synergy with Pyrethroid Exposure, and Risk for Parkinson's Disease: An Observational and Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The common non-coding single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3129882 in HLA-DRA is associated with risk for idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD). The location of the SNP in the major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) locus implicates regulation of antigen presentation as a potential mechanism by which immune responses link genetic susceptibility to environmental factors in conferring lifetime risk for PD. METHODS: For immunophenotyping, blood cells from 81 subjects were analyzed by qRT-PCR and flow cytometry. A case-control study was performed on a separate cohort of 962 subjects to determine association of pesticide exposure and the SNP with risk of PD. RESULTS: Homozygosity for G at this SNP was associated with heightened baseline expression and inducibility of MHC class II molecules in B cells and monocytes from peripheral blood of healthy controls and PD patients. In addition, exposure to a commonly used class of insecticide, pyrethroids, synergized with the risk conferred by this SNP (OR = 2.48, p = 0.007), thereby identifying a novel gene-environment interaction that promotes risk for PD via alterations in immune responses. CONCLUSIONS: In sum, these novel findings suggest that the MHC-II locus may increase susceptibility to PD through presentation of pathogenic, immunodominant antigens and/or a shift toward a more pro-inflammatory CD4+ T cell response in response to specific environmental exposures, such as pyrethroid exposure through genetic or epigenetic mechanisms that modulate MHC-II gene expression.

Clinical effects of the use of a bipolar vessel sealing device for soft palate resection and tonsillectomy in dogs, with histological assessment of resected tonsillar tissue.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether soft palate resection and tonsillectomy with a bipolar vessel sealing device (BVSD) improves clinical respiratory score. To document histopathological changes to tonsillar tissue following removal with a BVSD. METHODS & RESULTS: Case series of 22 dogs with clinical signs of upper respiratory obstruction related to brachycephalic airway syndrome. Soft palate and tonsils were removed using a BVSD. Alarplasty and saccullectomy were also performed if indicated. A clinical respiratory score was assigned preoperatively, 24-h postoperatively and 5 weeks postoperatively. Excised tonsillar samples were measured and then assessed histologically for depth of tissue damage deemed to be caused by the device. Depth of tissue damage was compared between two power settings of the device. Soft palate resection and tonsillectomy with a BVSD lead to a significant improvement in respiratory scores following surgery. Depth of tissue damage was significantly less for power setting 1 compared with power setting 2. Using power setting 1, median calculated depth of tonsillar tissue damage was 3.4 mm (range 1.2-8.0). One dog experienced major complications. CONCLUSION: Soft palate resection and tonsillectomy with a BVSD led to significant improvement in clinical respiratory score.

Balloon occlusion of the caudal vena cava for vascular contrast studies as an aid to intravascular coil embolisation for the treatment of intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in three dogs.

CASE REPORT: Three dogs were treated with fluoroscopically guided coil embolisation of intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. A large-diameter vascular occlusion balloon was used to improve the vascular contrast studies required to perform this procedure. This technique improved identification of vascular structures and allowed completion of the procedures without the need for digital subtraction angiography. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Interventional radiological procedures are an emerging area of veterinary medicine and procedural modifications may help expand their use in clinical practice.

Complications of the angularis oris axial pattern buccal flap for reconstruction of palatine defects in two dogs.

CASE REPORT: Complications associated with surgical reconstruction of hard palate defects with a buccal mucosal flap based on the angularis oris artery and vein in two dogs are described. Distal flap necrosis occurred in both cases, but the flaps were successfully salvaged by division of the original flap pedicle and rotation of the flap material into the remaining defect. Postoperative dysphagia was observed in both dogs until flap revision. Salvage of the intact distal portion of the flap following division of the direct artery and vein 14 days postoperatively is discussed. CONCLUSION: The angularis oris axial pattern buccal flap is an option for reconstruction of large defects of the hard palate. Survival of the flap can be improved by removal of teeth likely to cause occlusal trauma to the flap's pedicle. In the event of distal flap necrosis, the repair may be salvaged by rotation of the remaining flap into the defect, following establishment of vascular supply from adjacent tissue.

Electrodeposition from supercritical fluids.

Recent studies have shown that it is possible to electrodeposit a range of materials, such as Cu, Ag and Ge, from various supercritical fluids, including hydrofluorocarbons and mixtures of CO2 with suitable co-solvents. In this perspective we discuss the relatively new field of electrodeposition from supercritical fluids. The perspective focuses on some of the underlying physical chemistry and covers both practical and scientific aspects of electrodeposition from supercritical fluids. We also discuss possible applications for supercritical fluid electrodeposition and suggest some key developments that are required to take the field to the next stage.

Simulation-based training in anaesthesiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Simulation has long been integrated in anaesthesiology training, yet a comprehensive review of its effectiveness is presently lacking. Using meta-analysis and critical narrative analysis, we synthesized the evidence for the effectiveness of simulation-based anaesthesiology training. We searched MEDLINE, ERIC, and SCOPUS through May 2011 and included studies using simulation to train health professional learners. Data were abstracted independently and in duplicate. We included 77 studies (6066 participants). Compared with no intervention (52 studies), simulation was associated with moderate to large pooled effect sizes (ESs) for all outcomes (ES range 0.60-1.05) except for patient effects (ES -0.39). Compared with non-simulation instruction (11 studies), simulation was associated with moderate effects for satisfaction and skills (ES 0.39 and 0.42, respectively), large effect for behaviours (1.77), and small effects for time, knowledge, and patient effects (-0.18 to 0.23). In 17 studies comparing alternative simulation interventions, training in non-technical skills (e.g. communication) and medical management compared with training in medical management alone was associated with negligible effects for knowledge and skills (four studies, ES range 0.14-0.15). Debriefing using multiple vs single information sources was associated with negligible effects for time and skills (three studies, ES range -0.07 to 0.09). Our critical analysis showed inconsistency in measurement of non-technical skills and consistency in the (ineffective) design of debriefing. Simulation in anaesthesiology appears to be more effective than no intervention (except for patient outcomes) and non-inferior to non-simulation instruction. Few studies have clarified the key instructional designs for simulation-based anaesthesiology training.

Simulation training for breast and pelvic physical examination: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Breast and pelvic examinations are challenging intimate examinations. Technology-based simulation may help to overcome these challenges. OBJECTIVE: To synthesise the evidence regarding the effectiveness of technology-based simulation training for breast and pelvic examination. SEARCH STRATEGY: Our systematic search included MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsychINFO, Scopus, and key journals and review articles; the date of the last search was January 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA: Original research studies evaluating technology-enhanced simulation of breast and pelvic examination to teach learners, compared with no intervention or with other educational activities. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: The reviewers evaluated study eligibility and abstracted data on methodological quality, learners, instructional design, and outcomes, and used random-effects models to pool weighted effect sizes. MAIN RESULTS: In total, 11 272 articles were identified for screening, and 22 studies were eligible, enrolling 2036 trainees. In eight studies comparing simulation for breast examination training with no intervention, simulation was associated with a significant improvement in skill, with a pooled effect size of 0.86 (95% CI 0.52-1.19; P < 0.001). Four studies comparing simulation training for pelvic examination with no intervention had a large and significant benefit, with a pooled effect size of 1.18 (95% CI 0.40-1.96; P = 0.003). Among breast examination simulation studies, dynamic models providing feedback were associated with improved outcomes. In pelvic examination simulation studies, the addition of a standardised patient to the simulation model and the use of an electronic model with enhanced feedback improved outcomes. AUTHOR'S CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with no intervention, breast and pelvic examination simulation training is associated with moderate to large effects for skills outcomes. Enhanced feedback appears to improve learning.

Cricoid pressure training using simulation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cricoid pressure (CP) is commonly applied during rapid sequence intubation and may be protective during induction of anaesthesia; however, CP application by untrained practitioners may not be performed optimally. The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize the evidence regarding effectiveness of technology-enhanced simulation training to improve efficacy of CP application. Electronic databases from inception through May 11, 2011 were searched. Eligible studies evaluated CP simulation training. Independent reviewers working in duplicate extracted study characteristics, validity, and outcomes data. Pooled effect size (ES) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from each study that compared technology-enhanced simulation with no intervention or with other methods of CP training using random-effects model. Twelve studies (772 trainees) evaluated CP training as an outcome. Nine studies reported information on baseline skill, with 23% of providers being able to achieve the target CP before training. In a meta-analysis of 10 studies (570 trainees), CP training resulted in a large favourable impact on skills among trainees compared with no intervention (pooled ES 1.18; 95% CI 0.85-1.51; P<0.0001). Four studies found evidence of skills retention for CP application after training, but for a limited time (<4 weeks). Comparative effectiveness research shows beneficial effects to force feedback training over training without feedback. Simulation training significantly improves the efficacy of CP application. Future studies might evaluate the clinical impact of training on CP application during rapid sequence intubation, and the comparative effectiveness of different training approaches.

Population-based evaluation of type-specific HPV prevalence among women in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: British Columbia (BC) introduced a school-based HPV vaccine program in September 2008. As part of the HPV vaccine program evaluation, we determined the type-specific HPV prevalence in a population-based sample of women presenting for routine cervical cancer screening in the province. METHODS: From June 2010 to February 2011, a total of 1100 physicians from all health regions in BC were invited to return ten sequential cytobrushes used during routine office-based Pap screening to the Provincial Health Services Authority Laboratories for HPV type-specific testing. Client age was the only identifier provided. Specimens were screened by the Digene Hybrid Capture(®) 2 High-Risk (hr) HPV DNA Test (HC2). HC2 positive specimens were then genotyped using the Roche cobas(®) 4800 HPV Test, the Roche Linear Array (LA) HPV Genotyping Test and the Digene(®) HPV Genotyping LQ Test. RESULTS: Overall, 12.2% of the 4330 specimens with valid HC2 results were hrHPV positive. Age range was 15-69 (median 39.0). By age group, the proportion HC2 hrHPV positive was: 15-19, 25.7%; 20-24, 33.2%; 25-29, 21.9%; 30-34, 12.6%; 35-39, 9.5%; 40-44, 8.4%; ≥45, 3.4%. Overall hrHPV prevalence was 10.1% by Roche cobas(®) 4800, 10.5% by Roche LA and 10.3% by Digene LQ. For HPV 16/18, rates by age group by Roche LA were: 15-19, 5.1%/2.8%; 20-24, 9.5%/3.9%; 25-29, 6.2%/1.0%; 30-34, 2.4%/1.7%; 35-39, 1.2%/1.0%; 40-44, 1.6%/0.2%; ≥45, 0.3%/0.2%. Similar HPV 16/18 rates were obtained with the Digene LQ and Roche cobas(®) 4800 methods. Agreement between the three genotyping methods for HPV 16 and 18 was high. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable to other evaluations, hrHPV positivity was highest among younger women and HPV 16 was the most frequent genotype detected. These baseline estimates will be useful for monitoring the effectiveness of the HPV vaccine in BC. Type-specific analyses repeated at regular intervals over time may determine whether the use of HPV vaccine results in hrHPV genotype replacement in the province.

Primary cervical cancer screening with HPV testing compared with liquid-based cytology: results of round 1 of a randomised controlled trial -- the HPV FOCAL Study.

BACKGROUND: Round 1 data of human papillomavirus (HPV) FOCAL, a three-arm, randomised trial, which aims to establish the efficacy of HPV DNA testing as a primary screen for cervical cancer, are presented. METHODS: The three arms are: Control arm - liquid based cytology with atypical squamous cells of unknown significance (ASC-US) triage with hrHPV testing; Intervention Arm - hrHPV at entry with liquid-based cytology (LBC) triage of hrHPV positives, with exit screen at 4 years; Safety check arm - hrHPV at entry with LBC triage of hrHPV positives with exit screen at 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 6154 women were randomised to the control arm and 12 494 to the HPV arms (intervention and safety check). In the HPV arm, the baseline cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2+ and CIN3+ rate was 9.2/1000 (95%CI; 7.4, 10.9) and 4.8/1000 (95%CI; 3.6, 6.1), which increased to 16.1/1000 (95%CI 13.2, 18.9) for CIN2+ and to 8.0/1000 (95%CI; 5.9, 10.0) for CIN3+ after subsequent screening of HPV-DNA-positive/cytology-negative women. Detection rate in the control arm remained unchanged after subsequent screening of ASC-US-positive/hrHPV DNA-negative women at 11.0/1000 for CIN2+ and 5.0/1000 for CIN3+. CONCLUSION: After subsequent screening of women who were either hrHPV positive/cytology negative or ASC-US positive/HPV negative, women randomised to the HPV arms had increased CIN2+ detection compared with women randomised to the cytology arm.

Exponentially weighted moving average charts to compare observed and expected values for monitoring risk-adjusted hospital indicators.

OBJECTIVE To introduce a new type of risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart and to compare it to a commonly used type of variable life adjusted display chart for analysis of patient outcomes. DATA Routine inpatient data on mortality following admission for acute myocardial infarction, from all public and private hospitals in Queensland, Australia. METHODS The RA-EWMA plots the EWMA of the observed and predicted values. Predicted values were obtained from a logistic regression model for all hospitals in Queensland. The EWMA of the predicted values is a moving centre line, reflecting current patient case mix at a particular hospital. Thresholds around this moving centre line provide a scale by which to assess the importance of trends in the EWMA of the observed values. RESULTS The RA-EWMA chart can be designed to have equivalent performance, in terms of average run lengths, as variable life adjusted display chart. The advantages of the RA-EWMA are that it communicates information about the current level of an indicator in a direct and understandable way, and it explicitly displays information about the current patient case mix. Also, because it is not reset, the RA-EWMA is a more natural chart to use in health, where it is exceedingly rare to stop or dramatically and abruptly alter a process of care. CONCLUSION The RA-EWMA chart is a direct and intuitive way to display information about an indicator while accounting for differences in case mix.

Improving the quality of patient care using reliability measures: a classification tree approach.

This paper considers the application and interpretation of new reliability measures for a classification tree-based medical risk assessment tool. Following the construction of a classification tree reliability measures may then be used to provide an estimate of the precision of the classification and the probability in each terminal node of the classification tree. Identification of unreliable nodes (those that have low precision) in this application may indicate patient groups requiring closer monitoring or scenarios in which further information about the patient is required, thereby providing medical practitioners with an avenue for more informed decision making.

Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review.

Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients.

The prevalence of Neospora caninum and co-infection with Toxoplasma gondii by PCR analysis in naturally occurring mammal populations.

Neospora caninum and Toxoplasma gondii are closely related intracellular protozoan parasites associated with bovine and ovine abortion respectively. Little is known about the extent of Neospora/Toxoplasma co-infection in naturally infected populations of animals. Using nested PCR techniques, based on primers from the Nc5 region of N. caninum and SAG1 for T. gondii, the prevalence of N. caninum and its co-infection with T. gondii were investigated in populations of Mus domesticus, Rattus norvegicus and aborted lambs (Ovis aries). A low frequency of infection with N. caninum was detected in the Mus domesticus (3%) and Rattus norvegicus (4.4%) populations. A relatively high frequency of infection with N. caninum was detected in the brains of aborted lambs (18.9%). There was no significant relationship between N. caninum and T. gondii co-infection. Investigation of the tissue distribution of Neospora, in aborted lambs, showed that Neospora could not be detected in tissues other than brain and this was in contrast to Toxoplasma where the parasite could be frequently detected in a range of tissues.

Comparison of perceived comfort differences between standard and experimental load carriage systems.

The current popularity of backpack-type load carriage systems (LCS) by students has precipitated a prevalence of postural abnormalities and pain. This study compared subjective perceptual comfort in standard and vertically loaded LCSs. Sixteen females ages 18-23 years rated their personal LCSs for perceived shoulder, neck, and lower back comfort and for overall comfort, each day for two weeks using 100 mm visual analogue scales (VAS). Each scale contained polar extremities of 'very comfortable' to 'very uncomfortable' and a vertical mark placed on the 100 mm line by the participants indicated their perception of comfort. Following two weeks, participants were given LCSs that distributed the weight vertically and were asked to rate the system in the same way for an additional two-week period. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences in shoulder (p=0.015), neck (p=0.005), and lower back (p=0.036) comfort and overall comfort (p=0.001) between the participants' personal LCSs and the experimental LCS. In conclusion, vertical load placement may redistribute the load in a manner that reduces symptoms of selected anatomical discomfort.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit.

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.