Benchmark dose profiles for bivariate exposures.

While benchmark dose (BMD) methodology is well-established for settings with a single exposure, these methods cannot easily handle multidimensional exposures with nonlinear effects. We propose a framework for BMD analysis to characterize the joint effect of a two-dimensional exposure on a continuous outcome using a generalized additive model while adjusting for potential confounders via propensity scores. This leads to a dose-response surface which can be summarized in two dimensions by a contour plot in which combinations of exposures leading to the same expected effect are identified. In our motivating study of prenatal alcohol exposure, cognitive deficits in children are found to be associated with both the frequency of drinking as well as the amount of alcohol consumed on each drinking day during pregnancy. The general methodological framework is useful for a broad range of settings, including combinations of environmental stressors, such as chemical mixtures, and in explorations of the impact of dose rate rather than simply cumulative exposure on adverse outcomes.

Predicting the Fracture Toughness of Human Cancellous Bone in Fractured Neck of Femur Patients Using Bone Volume and Micro-Architecture.

The current protocol used to determine if an individual is osteoporotic relies on assessment of the individual's bone mineral density (BMD), which allows clinicians to judge the condition of a patient with respect to their peers. This, in essence, evaluates a person's fracture risk, because BMD is a good surrogate measure for strength and stiffness. In recent studies, the authors were the first to produce fracture toughness (FT) data from osteoporotic (OP) and osteoarthritic (OA) patients, by using a testing technique which basically analyzes the prerequisite stress conditions for the onset of growth of a major crack through cancellous bone tissue. FT depends mainly on bone quantity (BV/TV, bone volume/tissue volume), but also on bone micro-architecture (mArch), the inner trabecular design of the bone. The working research hypothesis of the present study is that mArch offers added prediction power to BV/TV in determining FT parameters. Consequently, our aim was to investigate the use of predictive models for fracture toughness and also to investigate if there are any significant differences between the models produced from samples loaded across (AC, transverse to) the main trabecular orientation and along (AL, in parallel) the trabeculae. In multilinear regression analysis, we found that the strength of the relationships varied for a crack growing in these two orthogonal directions. Adding mArch variables in the Ac direction helped to increase the R2 to 0.798. However, in the AL direction, adding the mArch parameters did not add any predictive power to using BV/TV alone; BV/TV on its own could produce R2 = 0.730. The present results also imply that the anisotropic layout of the trabeculae makes it more difficult for a major crack to grow transversely across them. Cancellous bone models and remodels itself in a certain way to resist fracture in a specific direction, and thus, we should be mindful that architectural quality as well as bone quantity are needed to understand the resistance to fracture.

Neural representations of observed interpersonal synchrony/asynchrony in the social perception network.

The visual perception of individuals is thought to be mediated by a network of regions in occipitotemporal cortex that supports specialized processing of faces, bodies, and actions. In comparison, we know relatively little about the neural mechanisms that support the perception of multiple individuals and the interactions between them. The present study sought to elucidate the visual processing of social interactions by identifying which regions of the social perception network represent interpersonal synchrony. In an fMRI study with 32 human participants (26 female, 6 male), we used multi-voxel pattern analysis to investigate whether activity in face-selective, body-selective, and interaction-sensitive regions across the social perception network supports decoding of synchronous vs. asynchronous head-nodding and head-shaking. Several regions were found to support significant decoding of synchrony/asynchrony, including extrastriate body area, face-selective and interaction-sensitive mid/posterior right superior temporal sulcus, and occipital face area. We also saw robust cross-classification across actions in extrastriate body area, suggestive of movement-invariant representations of synchrony/asynchrony. Exploratory whole-brain analyses also identified a region of right fusiform cortex that responded more strongly to synchronous than to asynchronous motion. Critically, perceiving interpersonal synchrony/asynchrony requires the simultaneous extraction and integration of dynamic information from more than one person. Hence, the representation of synchrony/asynchrony cannot be attributed to augmented or additive processing of individual actors. Our findings therefore provide important new evidence that social interactions recruit dedicated visual processing within the social perception network that extends beyond that engaged by the faces and bodies of the constituent individuals.Significance statement The presence of interpersonal synchrony is a critical cue when appraising the nature and content of social interactions from third-person perspectives. However, little is known about its representation within the human visual system. Here, we use fMRI to reveal distributed representations of interpersonal synchrony/asynchrony in several regions of the social perception network, notably extrastriate body area and superior temporal sulcus. There is growing speculation that the perception of social interactions engages specialized visual processing beyond that recruited by the faces and bodies of the constituent individuals. Critically, perceiving interpersonal synchrony requires the simultaneous extraction and integration of dynamic information from more than one person. These results therefore provide key new evidence of dedicated multi-actor processing within the social perception network.

Minimally Invasive Approaches to Mitral Valve Surgery: Where Are We Now? A Narrative Review.

Minimally invasive mitral valve surgery (MiMVS) has been increasing in prevalence. This review will focus on the approaches, the clinical outcomes, and patient selection for MiMVS. There are four minimally invasive approaches to the mitral valve: Right mini-thoracotomy, both video-assisted and fully endoscopic, robotic mitral surgery, and transapical, beating heart off-pump neochordal repair. Advantages over conventional surgery include less blood loss and transfusion, improved postoperative mobility, shorter length of stay, less postoperative atrial fibrillation, fewer surgical site infections, and improved cosmesis. This range of minimally invasive techniques will continue to evolve, providing options that are tailored for different patient populations.

Low-velocity penetrating brain injury: a review of the literature and illustrative case.

INTRODUCTION: Low-velocity penetrating brain injury (LVPBI) is a class of brain injury where a foreign object violates the skull and damages the brain. Such injuries are rare and consequently understudied. CASE: As such, we report an illustrative case of a 29-year-old female with a dense, plastic spike penetrating her right orbit and into her midbrain. After assessment with a CT scan and angiography, the object was removed with careful attention to possible vascular injury. The patient had an uncomplicated post-operative course and received antibiotic and antiepileptic prophylaxis. She was discharged on post-operative day 5, experiencing only mild left-sided weakness. DISCUSSION: Common concerns regarding LVPBI include infection, post-traumatic epilepsy, and vascular injury. A review of published LVPBI cases over the past 20 years demonstrated that most cases (55.2%) are due to accidents. Of patients undergoing surgery, 43.4% underwent a craniotomy, and 22.8% underwent a craniectomy. Despite the grave nature of LVPBI, only 13.5% of the patients died. Additionally, 6.5% of patients developed an infection over their clinical course. CONCLUSION: In all, more reported cases further paint a picture of the current state of management and outcomes regarding LVPBI, paving the way for more cohesive guidelines to ensure the best possible patient outcomes.

Two-phase designs with failure time processes subject to nonsusceptibility.

Epidemiological studies based on 2-phase designs help ensure efficient use of limited resources in situations where certain covariates are prohibitively expensive to measure for a full cohort. Typically, these designs involve 2 steps: In phase I, data on an outcome and inexpensive covariates are acquired, and in phase II, a subsample is chosen in which the costly variable of interest is measured. For right-censored data, 2-phase designs have been primarily based on the Cox model. We develop efficient 2-phase design strategies for settings involving a fraction of long-term survivors due to nonsusceptibility. Using mixture models accommodating a nonsusceptible fraction, we consider 3 regression frameworks, including (a) a logistic "cure" model, (b) a proportional hazards model for those who are susceptible, and (c) regression models for susceptibility and failure time in those susceptible. Importantly, we introduce a novel class of bivariate residual-dependent designs to address the unique challenges presented in scenario (c), which involves 2 parameters of interest. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our approach over various phase II subsampling schemes. We illustrate the method through applications to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

A retrospective and prospective study of biostatistics in Canada.

Biostatistics is foundational to public health research and Canada has a history of high impact contributions both in seminal methodological advances and in the rigorous application of methods for the design or analysis of public health studies. In this article, we provide a brief and personal review of selected contributions from Canadian biostatisticians to fields such as survival and life history analysis, sampling, clinical trial methodology, environmental risk assessment, infectious disease epidemiology, and early work on prediction. We also provide a brief look forward at the upcoming needs and future directions of biostatistical research.

RéSUMé: La biostatistique est fondamentale pour la recherche en santé publique et le Canada a un historique de contributions à fort impact, tant dans les avancées méthodologiques majeures que dans l'application rigoureuse de méthodes pour la conception ou l'analyse d'études de santé publique. Dans cet article, nous présentons un examen bref et personnel des contributions des biostatisticiens canadiens dans des domaines tels que l'analyse de la survie et de l'histoire de vie, l'échantillonnage, la méthodologie des essais cliniques, le risque environnemental, l'épidémiologie des maladies infectieuses et les premiers travaux sur la prédiction et la classification. Nous fournissons également un bref aperçu des besoins à venir et des orientations futures de la recherche biostatistique.

A dose-response analysis of the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on cognitive development.

BACKGROUND: Most studies of the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) on cognitive function have assumed that the dose-response curve is linear. However, data from a few animal and human studies suggest that there may be an inflection point in the dose-response curve above which PAE effects are markedly stronger and that there may be differences associated with pattern of exposure, assessed in terms of alcohol dose per drinking occasion and drinking frequency. METHODS: We performed second-order confirmatory factor analysis on data obtained at school age, adolescence, and early adulthood from 2227 participants in six US longitudinal cohorts to derive a composite measure of cognitive function. Regression models were constructed to examine effects of PAE on cognitive function, adjusted for propensity scores. Analyses based on a single predictor (absolute alcohol (AA)/day) were compared with analyses based on two predictors (dose/occasion and drinking frequency), using (1) linear models and (2) nonparametric general additive models (GAM) that allow for both linear and nonlinear effects. RESULTS: The single-predictor GAM model showed virtually no nonlinearity in the effect of AA/day on cognitive function. However, the two-predictor GAM model revealed differential effects of maternal drinking pattern. Among offspring of infrequent drinkers, PAE effects on cognitive function were markedly stronger in those whose mothers drank more than ~3 drinks/occasion, and the effect of dose/occasion was strongest among the very frequent drinkers. Frequency of drinking did not appear to alter the PAE effect on cognitive function among participants born to mothers who limited their drinking to ~1 drink/occasion or less. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that linear models based on total AA/day are appropriate for assessing whether PAE affects a given cognitive outcome. However, examination of alcohol dose/occasion and drinking frequency is needed to fully characterize the impact of different levels of alcohol intake on cognitive impairment.

Quality of life and cost-effectiveness of convalescent plasma compared to standard care for hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the CONCOR-1 trial.

BACKGROUND: The CONvalescent Plasma for Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19 Respiratory Illness (CONCOR-1) trial was a multicenter randomized controlled trial assessing convalescent plasma in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of convalescent plasma and its impact on quality-of-life to provide insight into its potential as an alternative treatment in resource-constrained settings. METHODS: Individual patient data on health outcomes and resource utilization from the CONCOR-1 trial were used to conduct the analysis from the Canadian public payer's perspective with a time horizon of 30 days post-randomization. Baseline and 30-day EQ-5D-5L were measured to calculate quality-adjusted survival. All costs are presented in 2021 Canadian dollars. The base case assessed the EQ-5D-5L scores of hospitalized inpatients reporting at both timepoints, and a utility score of 0 was assigned for patients who died within 30 days. Costs for all patients enrolled were used. The sensitivity analysis utilizes EQ-5D-5L scores from the same population but only uses costs from this population. RESULTS: 940 patients were randomized: 627 received CCP and 313 received standard care. The total costs were $28,716 (standard deviation, $25,380) and $24,258 ($22,939) for the convalescent plasma and standard care arms respectively. EQ-5D-5L scores were 0.61 in both arms (p = .85) at baseline. At 30 days, EQ-5D-5L scores were 0.63 and 0.64 for patients in the convalescent plasma and standard care arms, respectively (p = .46). The incremental cost was $4458 and the incremental quality-adjusted life day was -0.078. DISCUSSION: Convalescent plasma was less effective and more costly than standard care in treating hospitalized COVID-19.

Results of clinical effectiveness of conventional versus Mirasol-treated Apheresis Platelets in Patients with Hypoproliferative Thrombocytopenia (MiPLATE) trial.

BACKGROUND: The Mirasol® Pathogen Reduction Technology System was developed to reduce transfusion-transmitted diseases in platelet (PLT) products. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: MiPLATE trial was a prospective, multicenter, controlled, randomized, non-inferiority (NI) study of the clinical effectiveness of conventional versus Mirasol-treated Apheresis PLTs in participants with hypoproliferative thrombocytopenia. The novel primary endpoint was days of ≥Grade 2 bleeding with an NI margin of 1.6. RESULTS: After 330 participants were randomized, a planned interim analysis of 297 participants (145 MIRASOL, 152 CONTROL) receiving ≥1 study transfusion found a 2.79-relative rate (RR) in the MIRASOL compared to the CONTROL in number of days with ≥Grade 2 bleeding (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.67-4.67). The proportion of subjects with ≥Grade 2 bleeding was 40.0% (n = 58) in MIRASOL and 30.3% (n = 46) in CONTROL (RR = 1.32, 95% CI 0.97-1.81, p = .08). Corrected count increments were lower (p < .01) and the number of PLT transfusion episodes per participant was higher (RR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.41) in MIRASOL. There was no difference in the days of PLT support (hazard ratio = 0.86, 95% CI 0.68-1.08) or total number of red blood cell transfusions (RR = 1.12, 95% CI 0.91-1.37) between MIRASOL versus CONTROL. Transfusion emergent adverse events were reported in 119 MIRASOL participants (84.4%) compared to 133 (82.6%) participants in CONTROL (p = NS). DISCUSSION: This study did not support that MIRASOL was non-inferior compared to conventional platelets using the novel endpoint number of days with ≥Grade 2 bleeding in MIRASOL when compared to CONTROL.

Working at the interface: lessons from a joined-up approach between oral medicine and paediatric dentistry.

Oral mucosal and other head and neck conditions in children have a variety of presentations. The joint oral medicine and paediatric (JOMP) dental clinic is a specialised unit within a London teaching hospital, developed to manage a wide range of oral conditions with an absolute commitment to a child-centred care approach. The authors present eight cases from the JOMP clinic experience at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation trust, over a nine-year period. Each case is unique in its presentation, diagnosis and bespoke management, tailored to the nuance of each individual patient and their unique position. The eight clinical cases demonstrate the success of the JOMP team in achieving good patient outcomes, in terms of providing accurate diagnoses for their oral conditions and for appropriately tailored management/ treatment. The cases also serve to raise awareness of some of the more unusual oral conditions affecting paediatric patients among our professional colleagues.

Sensor-guided transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

OBJECTIVES: The SavvyWire(OpSens Medical) is a support wire for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures that, in addition to its dedicated left ventricle (LV) pacing capabilities, has a distal pressure sensor that measures live transvalvular hemodynamics during the procedure. We aimed to determine the safety, efficacy, and functionality of the SavvyWire during TAVR procedures in an all-comer population. METHODS: We performed a multicentric, prospective, observational, single-arm, all-comers registry of patients with symptomatic, severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR in 3 Canadian centers. Data were collected in a dedicated database, and pre-specified questionnaires were fulfilled by the heart team implanters after each procedure. RESULTS: A total of 60 patients were included (mean age: 78.6 ± 7.2 years; 51% women; mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons score: 2.2 ± 1.6%). TAVR was performed through a transfemoral approach in 90% of cases, and balloon- and self-expandable valves were used in 73% and 27% of patients, respectively. There were no cases of LV perforation, guidewire deformation, significant loss of capture, or major software malfunction. The rate of successful delivery of the TAVR system was 100%, and effective LV pacing was achieved in 98% of patients. The pre-TAVR mean gradient was 39 ± 14 mm Hg while the final post-TAVR gradient was 8 ± 5 mm Hg; the mean aortic systolic pressure during rapid pacing was 54 ± 12 mm Hg. In 97% of the TAVR procedures, SavvyWire's functionality was reported to be better or similar to other TAVR workhorse support wires. CONCLUSIONS: SavvyWire was safe, effective, and functional for live transvalvular hemodynamic evaluation and rapid pacing during TAVR procedures. More studies with larger sample sizes and comparison against different wires and gradient measurement methods are warranted.

Early exposure to anesthesiology: a summer preceptorship program for first-year medical students.

Introduction: A 4-week summer preceptorship offered first-year medical students early exposure to anesthesiology following their preclerkship courses in pharmacology and cardiopulmonary physiology. The main objective was to provide students with clinical skills and prepare them for rotations while immersing them in a unique experience, introducing a specialty not covered in core rotations. Methods: Participants were selected via their responses to an application. In addition to shadowing anesthesiologists, curriculum components included weekly faculty lectures on core aspects of anesthesiology (introductory basics, perioperative drugs, airway, and crisis management); multiple simulation labs (workstation setup, intubation clinics, intravenous and central line placement, ultrasound techniques); research opportunities; and mentorship from physicians and senior medical students. The program culminated in each student successfully leading a simulated case to receive a certificate of completion. Results: A survey of 15 participants revealed significant improvements in ability to intubate (P < 0.05), ability to perform a transthoracic echocardiogram (P < 0.05), interest in anesthesiology as a specialty (P < 0.05), and preparedness for future rotations (P < 0.05). Discussion: This program accelerates clinical exposure for preclerkship students, providing insights into anesthesiology early in their medical journey. It provides research and mentorship, fosters professional growth, and enhances individual competitiveness for residency program applications.

Long-term outcome of isolated mitral valve repair versus replacement for degenerative mitral regurgitation in propensity-matched patients.

Objective: This study was performed to investigate the long-term outcomes in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) undergoing mitral valve repair (MVr) versus mitral valve replacement (MVR) without concomitant surgeries. Methods: The study cohort comprised 1493 patients with degenerative MR who were treated with isolated mitral valve surgery between January 2000 and December 2017 in a large multicenter (5 hospitals) registry of the Province of British Columbia, Canada, including 991 with repair and 502 with replacement. A propensity-matched comparison and risk-adjusted model were used to analyze the outcomes. Results: After propensity matching (415 matched pairs), the 30-day mortalities were 2.4% and 3.6% in the MVr and MVR groups respectively (odds ratio [OR], 1.500; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.674-3.339; P = .32). The MVR group had significantly greater rates of prolonged inotrope usage >24 hours (P = .024), prolonged ventilation (P = .039), and blood transfusion (P = .023). The respective 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rates were 95.7%, 88.8%, 71.4%, and 53.3% in the MVr group, and 93.0%, 81.6%, 61.3%, and 46.0% in the MVR group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.355; 95% CI, 1.105-1.661; P = .004). A multivariable analysis revealed that MVR was an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality (OR, 2.270; 95% CI, 1.089-4.732; P = .029) and long-term mortality (HR, 1.417; 95% CI, 1.161-1.729; P < .001). The HR of MVR over MVr remained consistently greater than 1.0 across all ages. Conclusions: MVr is associated with lower postoperative morbidity and better long-term survival compared with MVR in patients undergoing isolated mitral valve surgery for degenerative MR. The benefit of MVr appears age-independent.

Statistical and Scientific Considerations Concerning the Interpretation, Replicability, and Transportability of Research Findings.

To advance scientific understanding of disease processes and related intervention effects, study results should be free from bias and replicable. More broadly, investigators seek results that are transportable, that is, applicable to a perceived study population as well as in other environments and populations. We review fundamental statistical issues that arise in the analysis of observational data from disease cohorts and other sources and discuss how these issues affect the transportability and replicability of research results. Much of the literature focuses on estimating average exposure or intervention effects at the population level, but we argue for more nuanced analyses of conditional effects that reflect the complexity of disease processes.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Disease-Specific Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Model for Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis and Psoriasis.

OBJECTIVE: To address suboptimal cardiovascular risk prediction in patients with psoriatic disease (PsD), we developed and internally validated a five-year disease-specific cardiovascular risk prediction model. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort of participants with PsD without a history of cardiovascular events. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors and PsD-related measures of disease activity were considered as potential predictors. The study outcome included nonfatal and fatal cardiovascular events. A base prediction model included 10 traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Eight PsD-related factors were assessed by adding them to the base model to create expanded models, which were controlled for PsD therapies. Variable selection was performed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized regression with 10-fold cross-validation. Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration and measures of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Between 1992 and 2020, 85 of 1,336 participants developed cardiovascular events. Discrimination of the base model (with traditional cardiovascular risk factors alone) was excellent, with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 85.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 81.9-89.1). Optimal models did not select any of the tested disease-specific factors. In a sensitivity analysis, which excluded lipid lowering and antihypertensive treatments, the number of damaged joints was selected in the expanded model. However, this model did not improve risk discrimination compared to the base model (AUC 85.5, 95% CI 82.0-89.1). CONCLUSION: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors alone are effective in predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with PsD. A risk score based on these factors performed well, indicating excellent discrimination and calibration.

Bayesian outcome selection modeling.

In psychiatric and social epidemiology studies, it is common to measure multiple different outcomes using a comprehensive battery of tests thought to be related to an underlying construct of interest. In the research that motivates our work, researchers wanted to assess the impact of in utero alcohol exposure on child cognition and neuropsychological development, which are evaluated using a range of different psychometric tests. Statistical analysis of the resulting multiple outcomes data can be challenging, because the outcomes measured on the same individual are not independent. Moreover, it is unclear, a priori, which outcomes are impacted by the exposure under study. While researchers will typically have some hypotheses about which outcomes are important, a framework is needed to help identify outcomes that are sensitive to the exposure and to quantify the associated treatment or exposure effects of interest. We propose such a framework using a modification of stochastic search variable selection, a popular Bayesian variable selection model and use it to quantify an overall effect of the exposure on the affected outcomes. The performance of the method is investigated empirically and an illustration is given through application using data from our motivating study.

Are upside-down faces perceived as "less human"?

According to perceptual dehumanization theory (PDT), faces are only perceived as "truly human" when processed in a configural fashion. Consistent with this theory, previous research indicates that when faces are inverted, a manipulation hypothesized to disrupt configural processing, the individuals depicted are attributed fewer uniquely human qualities. In a seminal paper, Hugenberg et al. (2016) reported that faces appeared less creative, less thoughtful, less empathetic, and possessed less "humanness" when inverted. Across four highly powered and preregistered experiments, we demonstrate that inversion does not influence the attribution of uniquely human traits specifically. Rather, in line with research on face processing, inversion impedes face encoding more generally, causing trait attributions to tend toward the mean. Positively valanced faces (i.e., those judged to be trustworthy when presented upright) are perceived to be less creative, considerate, thoughtful, and empathetic when inverted. Conversely, negatively valanced faces (i.e., those judged to be untrustworthy when presented upright) are judged to be more creative, considerate, thoughtful, and empathetic when inverted. Furthermore, we show that the effect of inversion on judgments of "humanness" reflects a general phenomenon that can be replicated with other (nonface) stimulus categories that also possess a canonical orientation. These findings suggest that a key line of evidence for PDT is considerably less convincing than it first appears. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Depth profiling via nanoindentation for characterisation of the elastic modulus and hydraulic properties of thin hydrogel layers.

The accurate determination of the mechanical properties of hydrogels is of fundamental importance for a range of applications, including in assessing the effect of stiffness on cell behaviour. This is a particular issue when using thin hydrogel layers adherent to stiff substrate supports, as the apparent stiffness can be significantly influenced by the constraint of the underlying impermeable substrate, leading to inaccurate measurements of the elastic modulus and permeability of thin hydrogel layers. This study used depth profiling nanoindentation and a poroelastic model for spherical indentation to identify the elastic moduli and hydraulic conductivity of thin polyacrylamide (PAAm) hydrogel layers (∼27 µm-782 µm thick) on impermeable substrates. The apparent stiffness of thin PAAm layers increased with indentation depth and was significantly greater than those of thicker hydrogels, which showed no influence of indentation depth. The hydraulic conductivity decreased as the geometrical confinement of hydrogels increased, indicating that the fluid became more constrained within the confinement areas. The impact of geometrical confinement on the apparent modulus and hydraulic conductivity of thin PAAm hydrogel layers was then established, and their elastic moduli and intrinsic permeability were determined in relation to this effect. This study offers valuable insights into the mechanical characterisation of thin PAAm hydrogel layers used for the fundamental study of cell mechanobiology.

Derivation of a Multivariable Psoriatic Arthritis Risk Estimation Tool (PRESTO): A Step Towards Prevention.

OBJECTIVE: A simple, scalable tool that identifies psoriasis patients at high risk for developing psoriatic arthritis (PsA) could improve early diagnosis. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for the development of PsA and to assess its performance among patients with psoriasis. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort of psoriasis patients without PsA at enrollment. Participants were assessed annually by a rheumatologist for the development of PsA. Information about their demographics, psoriasis characteristics, comorbidities, medications, and musculoskeletal symptoms was used to develop prediction models for PsA. Penalized binary regression models were used for variable selection while adjusting for psoriasis duration. Risks of developing PsA over 1- and 5-year time periods were estimated. Model performance was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots. RESULTS: Among 635 psoriasis patients, 51 and 71 developed PsA during the 1-year and 5-year follow-up periods, respectively. The risk of developing PsA within 1 year was associated with younger age, male sex, family history of psoriasis, back stiffness, nail pitting, joint stiffness, use of biologic medications, patient global health, and pain severity (AUC 72.3). The risk of developing PsA within 5 years was associated with morning stiffness, psoriatic nail lesion, psoriasis severity, fatigue, pain, and use of systemic nonbiologic medication or phototherapy (AUC 74.9). Calibration plots showed reasonable agreement between predicted and observed probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The development of PsA within clinically meaningful time frames can be predicted with reasonable accuracy for psoriasis patients using readily available clinical variables.