Quantifying resistance to myxomatosis in wild rabbits produces novel evolutionary insights.

Wild rabbits in Australia developed genetic resistance to the myxoma virus, which was introduced as a biological control agent. However, little is known about the rate at which this evolutionary change occurred. We collated data from challenge trials that estimated rabbit resistance to myxomatosis in Australia and expressed resistance on a continuous scale, enabling trends in its development to be assessed over 45 years up to 1995. Resistance initially increased rapidly, followed by a plateau lasting ten years, before a second rapid increase occurred associated with the introduction of European rabbit fleas as myxoma virus vectors. By contrast, in the United Kingdom, where rabbit flea vectors were already present when the myxoma virus initially spread, resistance developed more slowly. No estimates of rabbit resistance to myxomatosis have been made for almost 30 years, despite other highly lethal rabbit pathogens becoming established worldwide. Continued testing of wild-caught rabbits in Australia to determine current levels of resistance to myxomatosis is recommended to assess its current effectiveness for managing pest rabbits. Given the economic and environmental significance of invasive rabbits, it would be remiss to manage such biological resources and ecosystem services poorly.

Modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists.

In its invasive range in Australia, the European rabbit threatens the persistence of native flora and fauna and damages agricultural production. Understanding its distribution and ecological niche is critical for developing management plans to reduce populations and avoid further biodiversity and economic losses.We developed an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the geographic range limits and habitat suitability of the rabbit in Australia. We examined the advantage of incorporating data collected by citizens (separately and jointly with expert data) and explored issues of spatial biases in occurrence data by implementing different approaches to generate pseudo-absences. We evaluated the skill of our model using three approaches: cross-validation, out-of-region validation, and evaluation of the covariate response curves according to expert knowledge of rabbit ecology.Combining citizen and expert occurrence data improved model skill based on cross-validation, spatially reproduced important aspects of rabbit ecology, and reduced the need to extrapolate results beyond the studied areas.Our ensemble model projects that rabbits are distributed across approximately two thirds of Australia. Annual maximum temperatures >25°C and annual minimum temperatures >10°C define, respectively, the southern and northern most range limits of its distribution. In the arid and central regions, close access to permanent water (≤~ 0.4 km) and reduced clay soil composition (~20%-50%) were the major factors influencing the probability of occurrence of rabbits. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that citizen science data can play an important role in managing invasive species by providing missing information on occurrences in regions not surveyed by experts because of logistics or financial constraints. The additional sampling effort provided by citizens can improve the capacity of SDMs to capture important elements of a species ecological niche, improving the capacity of statistical models to accurately predict the geographic range of invasive species.

Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes.

The reproduction of many species is determined by seasonally-driven resource supply. But it is difficult to quantify whether the fecundity is sensitive to short- or long-term exposure to environmental conditions such as rainfall that drive resource supply. Using 25 years of data on individual fecundity of European female rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, from semiarid Australia, we investigate the role of individual body condition, rainfall and temperature as drivers of seasonal and long-term and population-level changes in fecundity (breeding probability, ovulation rate, embryo survival). We built distributed lag models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for both immediate and time-lagged effects of climate and other environmental drivers, and possible shifts in reproduction over consecutive seasons. We show that rainfall during summer, when rabbits typically breed only rarely, increased breeding probability immediately and with time lags of up to 10 weeks. However, an earlier onset of the yearly breeding period did not result in more overall reproductive output. Better body condition was associated with an earlier onset of breeding and higher embryo survival. Breeding probability in the main breeding season declined with increased breeding activity in the preceding season and only individuals in good body condition were able to breed late in the season. Higher temperatures reduce breeding success across seasons. We conclude that a better understanding of seasonal dynamics and plasticity (and their interplay) in reproduction will provide crucial insights into how lagomorphs are likely to respond and potentially adapt to the influence of future climate and other environmental change.

Distribution and prevalence of the Australian non-pathogenic rabbit calicivirus is correlated with rainfall and temperature.

BACKGROUND: Australia relies heavily on rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) for the biological control of introduced European wild rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, which are significant economic and environmental pests. An endemic non-pathogenic rabbit calicivirus termed RCV-A1 also occurs in wild rabbits in Australian and provides partial protection against lethal RHDV infection, thus interfering with effective rabbit control. Despite its obvious importance for rabbit population management, little is known about the epidemiology of this benign rabbit calicivirus. METHODS: We determined the continent-wide distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 by analysing 1,805 serum samples from wild rabbit populations at 78 sites across Australia for the presence of antibodies to RCV-A1 using a serological test that specifically detects RCV-A1 antibodies and does not cross-react with co-occurring RHDV antibodies. We also investigated possible correlation between climate variables and prevalence of RCV-A1 by using generalised linear mixed effect models. RESULTS: Antibodies to RCV-A1 were predominantly detected in rabbit populations in cool, high rainfall areas of the south-east and south-west of the continent. There was strong support for modelling RCV-A1 prevalence as a function of average annual rainfall and minimum temperature. The best ranked model explained 26% of the model structural deviance. According to this model, distribution and prevalence of RCV-A1 is positively correlated with periods of above average rainfall and negatively correlated with periods of drought. IMPLICATIONS: Our statistical model of RCV-A1 prevalence will greatly increase our understanding of RCV-A1 epidemiology and its interaction with RHDV in Australia. By defining the environmental conditions associated with the prevalence of RCV-A1, it also contributes towards understanding the distribution of similar viruses in New Zealand and Europe.

Increased virulence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus associated with genetic resistance in wild Australian rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus).

The release of myxoma virus (MYXV) and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) in Australia with the aim of controlling overabundant rabbits has provided a unique opportunity to study the initial spread and establishment of emerging pathogens, as well as their co-evolution with their mammalian hosts. In contrast to MYXV, which attenuated shortly after its introduction, rapid attenuation of RHDV has not been observed. By studying the change in virulence of recent field isolates at a single field site we show, for the first time, that RHDV virulence has increased through time, likely because of selection to overcome developing genetic resistance in Australian wild rabbits. High virulence also appears to be favoured as rabbit carcasses, rather than diseased animals, are the likely source of mechanical insect transmission. These findings not only help elucidate the co-evolutionary interaction between rabbits and RHDV, but reveal some of the key factors shaping virulence evolution.