Charting the Course of Pinniped Evolution: insights from molecular phylogeny and fossil record integration.

Pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses, and their fossil relatives) are one of the most successful mammalian clades to live in the oceans. Despite a well-resolved molecular phylogeny and a global fossil record, a complete understanding of their macroevolutionary dynamics remains hampered by a lack of formal analyses that combine these two rich sources of information. We used a meta-analytic approach to infer the most densely sampled pinniped phylogeny to-date (36 recent and 93 fossil taxa) and used phylogenetic paleobiological methods to study their diversification dynamics and biogeographic history. Pinnipeds mostly diversified at constant rates. Walruses however experienced rapid turnover in which extinction rates ultimately exceeded speciation rates from 12-6 Ma, possibly due to changing sea-levels and/or competition with otariids (eared seals). Historical biogeographic analyses including fossil data allowed us to confidently identify the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (plus or minus Paratethys) as the ancestral ranges of Otarioidea (eared seals + walrus) and crown phocids (earless seals), respectively. Yet, despite the novel addition of stem pan-pinniped taxa, the region of origin for Pan-Pinnipedia remained ambiguous. These results suggest further avenues of study in pinnipeds and provide a framework for investigating other groups with substantial extinct and extant diversity.

Innovation and elaboration on the avian tree of life.

Widely documented, megaevolutionary jumps in phenotypic diversity continue to perplex researchers because it remains unclear whether these marked changes can emerge from microevolutionary processes. Here, we tackle this question using new approaches for modeling multivariate traits to evaluate the magnitude and distribution of elaboration and innovation in the evolution of bird beaks. We find that elaboration, evolution along the major axis of phenotypic change, is common at both macro- and megaevolutionary scales, whereas innovation, evolution away from the major axis of phenotypic change, is more prominent at megaevolutionary scales. The major axis of phenotypic change among species beak shapes at megaevolutionary scales is an emergent property of innovation across clades. Our analyses suggest that the reorientation of phenotypes via innovation is a ubiquitous route for divergence that can arise through gradual change alone, opening up further avenues for evolution to explore.

Qualitative study exploring which research outcomes best reflect women's experiences of heavy menstrual bleeding: stakeholder involvement in development of a core outcome set.

OBJECTIVE: This work contributed to the development of a core outcome set (COS) for heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB). The objective was to determine which research outcomes best reflect how HMB affects women's lives and to identify additional research outcomes, not previously reported. It was important to explore and record participants' reasoning for prioritising outcomes and use this information to reinforce the patients' voice during later phases of the COS development. DESIGN: Patient workshop discussions and telephone interviews. SETTING: East London teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria were that participants must be over 18 years old, that either they or their partner had a history of HMB and that they had a good understanding of written and spoken English. RESULTS: 41 participants were recruited for the study. 8 women and 1 man completed the study. The eight female participants were representative of the different underlying causes and treatments for HMB. Participants ranged in age from their early 20s to their 60s and represented a range of ethnic groups. The five main themes that were identified as being important to patients were: 'restriction', 'relationships and isolation', 'emotions and self-perception', 'pain' and 'perceptions of treatment'. We identified eight coding nodes that did not correspond with our list of previously reported outcomes in studies of HMB. These nodes were consolidated and became five new outcomes for potential inclusion in the COS. CONCLUSIONS: HMB stops women living their lives as they would wish. It affects their relationships, education, careers, reproductive wishes, social life and mental health. This is a condition of girls and women in the prime of their lives, but for many, the constant threat of a heavy period starting means that they sacrifice that freedom. The societal and economic costs of women being incapacitated every month has an effect on everyone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The COS study is registered with the COMET (Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials) Initiative-project reference number 789.

Microchromosome fusions underpin convergent evolution of chameleon karyotypes.

Evolutionary shifts in chromosome compositions (karyotypes) are major drivers of lineage and genomic diversification. Fusion of ancestral chromosomes is one hypothesized mechanism for the evolutionary reduction of the total chromosome number, a frequently implied karyotypic shift. Empirical tests of this hypothesis require model systems with variable karyotypes, known chromosome features, and a robust phylogeny. Here we used chameleons, diverse lizards with exceptionally variable karyotypes ($2n=20\text{-}62$), to test whether chromosomal fusions explain the repeated evolution of karyotypes with fewer chromosomes than ancestral karyotypes. Using a multidisciplinary approach including cytogenetic analyses and phylogenetic comparative methods, we found that a model of constant loss through time best explained chromosome evolution across the chameleon phylogeny. Next, we tested whether fusions of microchromosomes into macrochromosomes explained these evolutionary losses using generalized linear models. Multiple comparisons supported microchromosome fusions as the predominant agent of evolutionary loss. We further compared our results to various natural history traits and found no correlations. As such, we infer that the tendency of microchromosomes to fuse was a quality of the ancestral chameleon genome and that the genomic predisposition of ancestors is a more substantive predictor of chromosome change than the ecological, physiological, and biogeographical factors involved in their diversification.

Standardising outcome reporting for clinical trials of interventions for heavy menstrual bleeding: Development of a core outcome set.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a core outcome set for heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB). DESIGN: Core outcome set (COS) development methodology described by the COMET initiative. SETTING: University hospital gynaecology department, online international survey and web-based international consensus meetings. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: An international collaboration of stakeholders (clinicians, patients, academics, guideline developers) from 20 countries and 6 continents. METHODS: Phase 1: Systematic review of previously reported outcomes to identify potential core outcomes. Phase 2: Qualitative studies with patients to identify outcomes most important to them. Phase 3: Online two-round Delphi survey to achieve consensus about which outcomes are most important. Phase 4: A consensus meeting to finalise the COS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcome importance was assessed in the Delphi survey on a 9-point scale. RESULTS: From the 'long list' of 114, 10 outcomes were included in the final COS: subjective blood loss; flooding; menstrual cycle metrics; severity of dysmenorrhoea; number of days with dysmenorrhoea; quality of life; adverse events; patient satisfaction; number of patients going on to have further treatment for HMB and haemoglobin level. CONCLUSIONS: The final COS includes variables that are feasible for use in clinical trials in all resource settings and apply to all known underlying causes of the symptom of HMB. These outcomes should be reported in all future trials of interventions, their systematic reviews, and clinical guidelines to underpin policy.

The dynamic adaptive landscape of cetacean body size.

Adaptive landscapes are central to evolutionary theory, forming a conceptual bridge between micro- and macroevolution.1,2,3,4 Evolution by natural selection across an adaptive landscape should drive lineages toward fitness peaks, shaping the distribution of phenotypic variation within and among clades over evolutionary timescales.5 The location and breadth of these peaks in phenotypic space can also evolve,4 but whether phylogenetic comparative methods can detect such patterns has largely remained unexplored.6 Here, we characterize the global and local adaptive landscape for total body length in cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and relatives), a trait that spans an order of magnitude, across their ∼53-million-year evolutionary history. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we analyze shifts in long-term mean body length7 and directional changes in average trait values8 for 345 living and fossil cetacean taxa. Remarkably, we find that the global macroevolutionary adaptive landscape of cetacean body length is relatively flat, with very few peak shifts occurring after cetaceans entered the oceans. Local peaks are more numerous and manifest as trends along branches linked to specific adaptations. These results contrast with previous studies using only extant taxa,9 highlighting the vital role of fossil data for understanding macroevolution.10,11,12 Our results indicate that adaptive peaks are dynamic and are associated with subzones of local adaptations, creating moving targets for species adaptation. In addition, we identify limits in our ability to detect some evolutionary patterns and processes and suggest that multiple approaches are required to characterize complex hierarchical patterns of adaptation in deep time.

Leveraging natural history collections to understand the impacts of global change.

This joint Special Feature focuses on the contributions and potential of natural history collections to address global change questions.

Diet and habit explain head-shape convergences in natricine snakes.

The concept of ecomorphs, whereby species with similar ecologies have similar phenotypes regardless of their phylogenetic relatedness, is often central to discussions regarding the relationship between ecology and phenotype. However, some aspects of the concept have been questioned, and sometimes species have been grouped as ecomorphs based on phenotypic similarity without demonstrating ecological similarity. Within snakes, similar head shapes have convergently evolved in species living in comparable environments and/or with similar diets. Therefore, ecomorphs could exist in some snake lineages, but this assertion has rarely been tested for a wide-ranging group within a single framework. Natricine snakes (Natricinae) are ecomorphologically diverse and currently distributed in Asia, Africa, Europe and north-central America. They are primarily semiaquatic or ground-dwelling terrestrial snakes, but some are aquatic, burrowing or aquatic and burrowing in habit and may be generalist or specialist in diet. Thus, natricines present an interesting system to test whether snakes from different major habit categories represent ecomorphs. We quantify morphological similarity and disparity in head shape among 191 of the ca. 250 currently recognized natricine species and apply phylogenetic comparative methods to test for convergence. Natricine head shape is largely correlated with habit, but in some burrowers is better explained by dietary specialism. Convergence in head shape is especially strong for aquatic burrowing, semiaquatic and terrestrial ecomorphs and less strong for aquatic and burrowing ecomorphs. The ecomorph concept is useful for understanding natricine diversity and evolution, though would benefit from further refinement, especially for aquatic and burrowing taxa.

Variation in outcome reporting in studies of fertility-sparing surgery for cervical cancer: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer affects 3197 women in the UK, and 604 000 women worldwide annually, with peak incidence seen in women between 30 and 34 years of age. For many, fertility-sparing surgery is an appealing option where possible. However, absence of large-scale data, along with a notable variation in reported outcomes in relevant studies, may undermine future efforts for consistent evidence synthesis. OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the reported outcomes measured in studies that include women who underwent fertility-sparing surgery for cervical cancer and identify whether variation exists. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL from inception to February 2019. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials, cohort and observational studies, and case studies of more than ten participants from January 1990 to date. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study characteristics and all reported treatment outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: A total of 104 studies with a sum of 9535 participants were identified. Most studies reported on oncological outcomes (97/104), followed by fertility and pregnancy (86/104), postoperative complications (74/104), intra-operative complications (72/104) and quality of life (5/104). There was huge variation and heterogeneity in reported outcomes, with only 12% being good quality and 87% being of poor quality. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant heterogeneity in the reported outcomes. An agreed Core Outcome Set is necessary for future studies to effectively harmonise reported outcomes that are measurable and relevant to patients, clinicians and researchers. This systematic review sets the groundwork for the development of a Core Outcome Set for fertility-sparing surgery in cervical cancer.

Molecular detection and characterisation of the first Japanese encephalitis virus belonging to genotype IV acquired in Australia.

BACKGROUND: A fatal case of Japanese encephalitis (JE) occurred in a resident of the Tiwi Islands, in the Northern Territory of Australia in February 2021, preceding the large JE outbreak in south-eastern Australia in 2022. This study reports the detection, whole genome sequencing and analysis of the virus responsible (designated JEV/Australia/NT_Tiwi Islands/2021). METHODS: Reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) testing was performed on post-mortem brain specimens using a range of JE virus (JEV)-specific assays. Virus isolation from brain specimens was attempted by inoculation of mosquito and mammalian cells or embryonated chicken eggs. Whole genome sequencing was undertaken using a combination of Illumina next generation sequencing methodologies, including a tiling amplicon approach. Phylogenetic and selection analyses were performed using alignments of the Tiwi Islands JEV genome and envelope (E) protein gene sequences and publicly available JEV sequences. RESULTS: Virus isolation was unsuccessful and JEV RNA was detected only by RT-qPCR assays capable of detecting all JEV genotypes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the Tiwi Islands strain is a divergent member of genotype IV (GIV) and is closely related to the 2022 Australian outbreak virus (99.8% nucleotide identity). The Australian strains share highest levels of nucleotide identity with Indonesian viruses from 2017 and 2019 (96.7-96.8%). The most recent common ancestor of this Australian-Indonesian clade was estimated to have emerged in 2007 (95% HPD range: 1998-2014). Positive selection was detected using two methods (MEME and FEL) at several sites in the E and non-structural protein genes, including a single site in the E protein (S194N) unique to the Australian GIV strains. CONCLUSION: This case represents the first detection of GIV JEV acquired in Australia, and only the second confirmed fatal human infection with a GIV JEV strain. The close phylogenetic relationship between the Tiwi Islands strain and recent Indonesian viruses is indicative of the origin of this novel GIV lineage, which we estimate has circulated in the region for several years prior to the Tiwi Islands case.

Whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater links to individual cases in catchments.

After a limited first wave of community transmission in March 2020 and until 2022, Western Australia was largely free of COVID-19, with cases restricted to hotel quarantine, commercial vessels, and small, infrequent community clusters. Despite the low case load setting, sequencing of wastewater samples from large municipal treatment plants produced SARS-CoV-2 genomes with coverage up to 99.7 % and depth to 4000×, which was sufficient to link wastewater sequences to those of active cases in the catchment at the time. This study demonstrates that ≤5 positive individuals can be enough to produce high genomic coverage (>90 %) assemblies even in catchments of up to a quarter of a million people. Genomic analysis of wastewater contemporaneous with clinical cases can also be used to rule out transmission between cases in different catchments, when their SARS-CoV-2 genomes have distinguishing nucleotide polymorphisms. These findings reveal a greater potential of wastewater WGS to inform outbreak management and disease surveillance than previously recognized.

Body size, shape and ecology in tetrapods.

Body size and shape play fundamental roles in organismal function and it is expected that animals may possess body proportions that are well-suited to their ecological niche. Tetrapods exhibit a diverse array of body shapes, but to date this diversity in body proportions and its relationship to ecology have not been systematically quantified. Using whole-body skeletal models of 410 extinct and extant tetrapods, we show that allometric relationships vary across individual body segments thereby yielding changes in overall body shape as size increases. However, we also find statistical support for quadratic relationships indicative of differential scaling in small-medium versus large animals. Comparisons of locomotor and dietary groups highlight key differences in body proportions that may mechanistically underlie occupation of major ecological niches. Our results emphasise the pivotal role of body proportions in the broad-scale ecological diversity of tetrapods.

Clade-wide variation in bite-force performance is determined primarily by size, not ecology.

Performance traits are tightly linked to the fitness of organisms. However, because studies of variation in performance traits generally focus on just one or several closely related species, we are unable to draw broader conclusions about how and why these traits vary across clades. One important performance trait related to many aspects of an animal's life history is bite-force. Here, we use a clade-wide phylogenetic comparative approach to investigate relationships between size, head dimensions and bite-force among lizards and tuatara (lepidosaurs), using the largest bite-force dataset collated to date for any taxonomic group. We test four predictions: that bite-force will be greater in larger species, and for a given body size, bite-force will be greatest in species with acrodont tooth attachment, herbivorous diets, and non-burrowing habits. We show that bite-force is strongly related to body and head size across lepidosaurs and, as predicted, larger species have the greatest bite-forces. Contrary to our other predictions, tooth attachment, diet and habit have little predictive power when accounting for size. Herbivores bite more forcefully simply because they are larger. Our results also highlight priorities for future sampling to further enhance our understanding of broader evolutionary patterns.

The evolution of the traplining pollinator role in hummingbirds: specialization is not an evolutionary dead end.

Trapliners are pollinators that visit widely dispersed flowers along circuitous foraging routes. The evolution of traplining in hummingbirds is thought to entail morphological specialization through the reciprocal coevolution of longer bills with the long-tubed flowers of widely dispersed plant species. Specialization, such as that exhibited by traplining hummingbirds, is often viewed as both irreversible and an evolutionary dead end. We tested these predictions in a macroevolutionary framework. Specifically, we assessed the relationship between beak morphology and foraging and tested whether transitions to traplining are irreversible and lead to lower rates of diversification as predicted by the hypothesis that specialization is an evolutionary dead end. We find that there have been multiple independent transitions to traplining across the hummingbird phylogeny, but reversals have been rare or incomplete at best. Multiple independent lineages of trapliners have become morphologically specialized, convergently evolving relatively large bills for their body size. Traplining is not an evolutionary dead end however, since trapliners continue to give rise to new traplining species at a rate comparable to non-trapliners.

Molecular phylogenetics of sub-Saharan African natricine snakes, and the biogeographic origins of the Seychelles endemic Lycognathophis seychellensis.

Phylogenetic relationships of sub-Saharan African natricine snakes are understudied and poorly understood, which in turn has precluded analyses of the historical biogeography of the Seychelles endemic Lycognathophis seychellensis. We inferred the phylogenetic relationships of Seychelles and mainland sub-Saharan natricines by analysing a multilocus DNA sequence dataset for three mitochondrial (mt) and four nuclear (nu) genes. The mainland sub-Saharan natricines and L. seychellensis comprise a well-supported clade. Two maximally supported sets of relationships within this clade are (Limnophis,Natriciteres) and (Afronatrix,(Hydraethiops,Helophis)). The relationships of L. seychellensis with respect to these two lineages are not clearly resolved by analysing concatenated mt and nu data. Analysed separately, nu data best support a sister relationship of L. seychellensis with (Afronatrix,(Hydraethiops,Helophis)) and mt data best support a sister relationship with all mainland sub-Saharan natricines. Methods designed to cope with incomplete lineage sorting strongly favour the former hypothesis. Genetic variation among up to 33 L. seychellensis from five Seychelles islands is low. Fossil calibrated divergence time estimates support an overseas dispersal of the L. seychellensis lineage to the Seychelles from mainland Africa ca. 43-25 million years before present (Ma), rather than this taxon being a Gondwanan relic.

Using natural history collections to investigate changes in pangolin (Pholidota: Manidae) geographic ranges through time.

Pangolins, often considered the world's most trafficked wild mammals, have continued to experience rapid declines across Asia and Africa. All eight species are classed as either Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Alongside habitat loss, they are threatened mainly by poaching and/or legal hunting to meet the growing consumer demand for their meat and keratinous scales. Species threat assessments heavily rely on changes in species distributions which are usually expensive and difficult to monitor, especially for rare and cryptic species like pangolins. Furthermore, recent assessments of the threats to pangolins focus on characterising their trade using seizure data which provide limited insights into the true extent of global pangolin declines. As the consequences of habitat modifications and poaching/hunting on species continues to become apparent, it is crucial that we frequently update our understanding of how species distributions change through time to allow effective identification of geographic regions that are in need of urgent conservation actions. Here we show how georeferencing pangolin specimens from natural history collections can reveal how their distributions are changing over time, by comparing overlap between specimen localities and current area of habitat maps derived from IUCN range maps. We found significant correlations in percentage area overlap between species, continent, IUCN Red List status and collection year, but not ecology (terrestrial or arboreal/semi-arboreal). Human population density (widely considered to be an indication of trafficking pressure) and changes in primary forest cover, were weakly correlated with percentage overlap. Our results do not suggest a single mechanism for differences among historical distributions and present-day ranges, but rather show that multiple explanatory factors must be considered when researching pangolin population declines as variations among species influence range fluctuations. We also demonstrate how natural history collections can provide temporal information on distributions and discuss the limitations of collecting and using historical data.

Disparities in the analysis of morphological disparity.

Analyses of morphological disparity have been used to characterize and investigate the evolution of variation in the anatomy, function and ecology of organisms since the 1980s. While a diversity of methods have been employed, it is unclear whether they provide equivalent insights. Here, we review the most commonly used approaches for characterizing and analysing morphological disparity, all of which have associated limitations that, if ignored, can lead to misinterpretation. We propose best practice guidelines for disparity analyses, while noting that there can be no 'one-size-fits-all' approach. The available tools should always be used in the context of a specific biological question that will determine data and method selection at every stage of the analysis.

Methods used to assess outcome consistency in clinical studies: A literature-based evaluation.

Evaluation studies of outcomes used in clinical research and their consistency are appearing more frequently in the literature, as a key part of the core outcome set (COS) development. Current guidance suggests such evaluation studies should use systematic review methodology as their default. We aimed to examine the methods used. We searched the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) database (up to May 2019) supplementing it with additional resources. We included evaluation studies of outcome consistency in clinical studies across health subjects and used a subset of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 (items 1-9) to assess their methods. Of 93 included evaluation studies of outcome consistency (90 full reports, three summaries), 91% (85/93) reported performing literature searches in at least one bibliographic database, and 79% (73/93) was labelled as a "systematic review". The evaluations varied in terms of satisfying AMSTAR 2 criteria, such that 81/93 (87%) had implemented PICO in the research question, whereas only 5/93 (6%) had included the exclusions list. None of the evaluation studies explained how inconsistency of outcomes was detected, however, 80/90 (88%) concluded inconsistency in individual outcomes (66%, 55/90) or outcome domains (20%, 18/90). Methods used in evaluation studies of outcome consistency in clinical studies differed considerably. Despite frequent being labelled as a "systematic review", adoption of systematic review methodology is selective. While the impact on COS development is unknown, authors of these studies should refrain from labelling them as "systematic review" and focus on ensuring that the methods used to generate the different outcomes and outcome domains are reported transparently.

Intraspecific variation in the cochleae of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) and its implications for comparative studies across odontocetes.

In morphological traits, variation within species is generally considered to be lower than variation among species, although this assumption is rarely tested. This is particularly important in fields like palaeontology, where it is common to use a single individual as representative of a species due to the rarity of fossils. Here, we investigated intraspecific variation in the cochleae of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena). Interspecific variation of cochlear morphology is well characterised among odontocetes (toothed whales) because of the importance of the structure in echolocation, but generally these studies use only a single cochlea to represent each species. In this study we compare variation within the cochleae of 18 specimens of P. phocoena with variations in cochlear morphology across 51 other odontocete species. Using both 3D landmark and linear measurement data, we performed Generalised Procrustes and principal component analyses to quantify shape variation. We then quantified intraspecific variation in our sample of P. phocoena by estimating disparity and the coefficient of variation for our 3D and linear data respectively. Finally, to determine whether intraspecific variation may confound the results of studies of interspecific variation, we used multivariate and univariate analyses of variance to test whether variation within the specimens of P. phocoena was significantly lower than that across odontocetes. We found low levels of intraspecific variation in the cochleae of P. phocoena, and that cochlear shape within P. phocoena was significantly less variable than across odontocetes. Although future studies should attempt to use multiple cochleae for every species, our results suggest that using just one cochlea for each species should not strongly influence the conclusions of comparative studies if our results are consistent across Cetacea.