Local adaptation in trait-mediated trophic cascades.

Predator-induced changes in prey foraging can influence community dynamics by increasing the abundance of basal resources via a trait-mediated trophic cascade. The strength of these cascades may be altered by eco-evolutionary relationships between predators and prey, but the role of basal resources has received limited attention. We hypothesized that trait-mediated trophic cascade strength may be shaped by selection from trophic levels above and below prey. Field and laboratory experiments used snails (Nucella lapillus) from two regions in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) that vary in basal resource availability (e.g. mussels), seawater temperature, and contact history with the invasive green crab, Carcinus maenas. In field and laboratory experiments, Nucella from both regions foraged on mussels in the presence or absence of green crab risk cues. In the field, Nucella from the northern GoM, where mussels are scarce, were less responsive to risk cues and more responsive to seawater temperature than southern Nucella. In the lab, however, northern Nucella foraged and grew more than southern snails in the presence of risk, but foraging and growth were similar in the absence of risk. We suggest that adaptation to basal resource availability may shape geographical variation in the strength of trait-mediated trophic cascades.

Local and regional geographic variation in inducible defenses.

Invasive predators can cause substantial evolutionary change in native prey populations. Although invasions by predators typically occur over large scales, their distributions are usually characterized by substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity that can lead to patchiness in the response of native prey species. Our ability to understand how local variation shapes patterns of inducible defense expression has thus far been limited by insufficient replication of populations within regions. Here, we examined local and regional variation in the inducible defenses of 12 native marine snail (Littorina obtusata) populations within two geographic regions in the Gulf of Maine that are characterized by vastly different contact histories with the invasive predatory green crab (Carcinus maenas). When exposed in the field to waterborne risk cues from the green crab for 90 days, snails expressed plastic increases in shell thickness that reduced their vulnerability to this shell-crushing predator. Despite significant differences in contact history with this invasive predator, snail populations from both regions produced similar levels of shell thickness and shell thickness plasticity in response to risk cues. Such phenotypic similarity emerged even though there were substantial geographic differences in the shell thickness of juvenile snails at the beginning of the experiment, and we suggest that it may reflect the effects of warming ocean temperatures and countergradient variation. Consistent with plasticity theory, a trend in our results suggests that southern snail populations, which have a longer contact history with the green crab, paid less in the form of reduced tissue mass for thicker shells than northern populations.

Environment and shipping drive environmental DNA beta-diversity among commercial ports.

The spread of nonindigenous species by shipping is a large and growing global problem that harms coastal ecosystems and economies and may blur coastal biogeographical patterns. This study coupled eukaryotic environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding with dissimilarity regression to test the hypothesis that ship-borne species spread homogenizes port communities. We first collected and metabarcoded water samples from ports in Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas. We then calculated community dissimilarities between port pairs and tested for effects of environmental dissimilarity, biogeographical region and four alternative measures of ship-borne species transport risk. We predicted that higher shipping between ports would decrease community dissimilarity, that the effect of shipping would be small compared to that of environment dissimilarity and shared biogeography, and that more complex shipping risk metrics (which account for ballast water and stepping-stone spread) would perform better. Consistent with our hypotheses, community dissimilarities increased significantly with environmental dissimilarity and, to a lesser extent, decreased with ship-borne species transport risks, particularly if the ports had similar environments and stepping-stone risks were considered. Unexpectedly, we found no clear effect of shared biogeography, and that risk metrics incorporating estimates of ballast discharge did not offer more explanatory power than simpler traffic-based risks. Overall, we found that shipping homogenizes eukaryotic communities between ports in predictable ways, which could inform improvements in invasive species policy and management. We demonstrated the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding and dissimilarity regression for disentangling the drivers of large-scale biodiversity patterns. We conclude by outlining logistical considerations and recommendations for future studies using this approach.

Ballast water-mediated species spread risk dynamics and policy implications to reduce the invasion risk to the Mediterranean Sea.

This study helps understand the ballast water-mediated species spread risk dynamics in the Mediterranean and examine potential policy options for ballast water management to further reduce species spread risk in the region. Results show that Gibraltar, Suez, and Istanbul remained high-risk ports from 2012 to 2018, and they are hub ports connecting several clusters. We reveal ballast water management implications for both the Mediterranean region and individual hub ports respectively. To further reduce the risks of individual Mediterranean hub ports beyond the IMO standards, the most effective (cost-effective) regulatory method is to set more stringent regulation towards such hub ports besides the IMO regulation. To further reduce the risks of the Mediterranean as a whole, the most effective (cost-effective) regulatory scenario is to set more stringent regulation towards all Mediterranean ports besides the IMO regulation. The barge-based method is the most cost-effective technology to achieve stricter regulations.

Economic and environmental impacts of ballast water management on Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries.

The Ballast Water Management Convention can decrease the introduction risk of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens, yet the Convention increases shipping costs and causes subsequent economic impacts. This paper examines whether the Convention generates disproportionate invasion risk reduction results and economic impacts on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Risk reduction is estimated with an invasion risk assessment model based on a higher-order network, and the effects of the regulation on national economies and trade are estimated with an integrated shipping cost and computable general equilibrium modeling framework. Then we use the Lorenz curve to examine if the regulation generates risk or economic inequality among regions. Risk reduction ratios of all regions (except Singapore) are above 99%, which proves the effectiveness of the Convention. The Gini coefficient of 0.66 shows the inequality in risk changes relative to income levels among regions, but risk reductions across all nations vary without particularly high risks for SIDS and LDCs than for large economies. Similarly, we reveal inequality in economic impacts relative to income levels (the Gini coefficient is 0.58), but there is no evidence that SIDS and LDCs are disproportionately impacted compared to more developed regions. Most changes in GDP, real exports, and real imports of studied regions are minor (smaller than 0.1%). However, there are more noteworthy changes for select sectors and trade partners including Togo, Bangladesh, and Dominican Republic, whose exports may decrease for textiles and metal and chemicals. We conclude the Convention decreases biological invasion risk and does not generate disproportionate negative impacts on SIDS and LDCs.

Integrated Biological Risk and Cost Model Analysis Supports a Geopolitical Shift in Ballast Water Management.

This work evaluates efficacies of plausible ballast water management strategies and standards by integrating a global species spread risk assessment with a policy cost-effectiveness analysis. Specifically, we consider species spread risks and costs of port- and vessel-based strategies under both current organism concentration standards and stricter standards proposed by California. For each scenario, we estimate species spread risks and patterns using a higher-order analysis of a global ship-borne species spread model and estimate fleet costs for vessel- and barge-based ballast water treatment systems for each standard. We find that stricter standards may reduce species spread risk by a factor of 17 globally and would greatly simplify the complex network of ship-borne species spread. The current policy of IMO standards is most cost-effectively achieved through ship-based treatment, and that any additional risk reduction will be most cost-effectively achieved by port-based (or barge-based) technologies, particularly if these are strategically implemented at the top ports within the largest clusters. Barge-based ballast water management would require a shift in governance, and we suggest that this next level of policymaking could be feasible for special areas designated by the IMO, by State or multistate authorities, or by voluntary port applications.

Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment.

Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.

Higher-order patterns of aquatic species spread through the global shipping network.

The introduction and establishment of nonindigenous species (NIS) through global ship movements poses a significant threat to marine ecosystems and economies. While ballast-vectored invasions have been partly addressed by some national policies and an international agreement regulating the concentrations of organisms in ballast water, biofouling-vectored invasions remain largely unaddressed. Development of additional efficient and cost-effective ship-borne NIS policies requires an accurate estimation of NIS spread risk from both ballast water and biofouling. We demonstrate that the first-order Markovian assumption limits accurate modeling of NIS spread risks through the global shipping network. In contrast, we show that higher-order patterns provide more accurate NIS spread risk estimates by revealing indirect pathways of NIS transfer using Species Flow Higher-Order Networks (SF-HON). Using the largest available datasets of non-indigenous species for Europe and the United States, we then compare SF-HON model predictions against those from networks that consider only first-order connections and those that consider all possible indirect connections without consideration of their significance. We show that not only SF-HONs yield more accurate NIS spread risk predictions, but there are important differences in NIS spread via the ballast and biofouling vectors. Our work provides information that policymakers can use to develop more efficient and targeted prevention strategies for ship-borne NIS spread management, especially as management of biofouling is of increasing concern.

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs.

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

Optic nerve morphology as marker for disease severity in cerebral palsy of perinatal origin.

BACKGROUND: It is difficult to predict the neurologic outcome and ambulatory status in children with perinatal neurologic insult until 2-5years age. This study aims to correlate clinical optic nerve head (ONH) findings-cupping, pallor and hypoplasia, with gestational period and neurologic (motor) outcomes in patients with cerebral palsy (CP) from perinatal insults. METHODS: 54 consecutive patients with CP from perinatal insults were enrolled. Patients with intraocular disease, retinopathy of prematurity and hydrocephalus were excluded. ONH was labeled as pale, hypoplastic or large cup (cup/disc ratio≥0.5) if 2 ophthalmologists independently agreed after an ophthalmoscopic examination. Inter-rater reliability was excellent. RESULTS: Mean age at examination was 10.98±6.49years; mean gestational period was 33.26±4.78weeks. Abnormal ONH (pallor, cupping or hypoplasia) was seen in 38/54 (70%) patients. Of patients with pallor (n=17), 88% were quadriplegic and 82% non-ambulatory. Mean cup/disc ratio was 0.45±0.22; 50% patients had large cup. Multivariate logistic regression models showed that disc pallor was associated with non-ambulatory status (OR: 21.7; p=0.003) and quadriplegia (OR: 12.8; p=0.03). Large cup was associated with age at examination (OR 1.15; p=0.03). Cup/disc ratio showed positive correlation with age at examination (Pearson's r=0.39; p=0.003). There was no significant association of ONH parameters with gestational age. CONCLUSION: Clinically observed ONH changes (pallor, cupping and hypoplasia) are common in CP. Presence of ONH pallor serves as an indicator for poor motor outcome in patients who develop CP from perinatal causes and should prompt early referral for rehabilitation.

Shore Power for Vessels Calling at U.S. Ports: Benefits and Costs.

When in port, ships burn marine diesel in on-board generators to produce electricity and are significant contributors to poor local and regional air quality. Supplying ships with grid electricity can reduce these emissions. We use two integrated assessment models to quantify the benefits of reducing the emissions of NOX, SO2, PM2.5, and CO2 that would occur if shore power were used. Using historical vessel call data, we identify combinations of vessels and berths at U.S. ports that could be switched to shore power to yield the largest gains for society. Our results indicate that, depending on the social costs of pollution assumed, an air quality benefit of $70-150 million per year could be achieved by retrofitting a quarter to two-thirds of all vessels that call at U.S. ports. Such a benefit could be produced at no net cost to society (health and environmental benefits would be balanced by the cost of ship and port retrofit) but would require many ships to be equipped to receive shore power, even if doing so would result in a private loss for the operator. Policy makers could produce a net societal gain by implementing incentives and mandates to encourage a shift toward shore power.

Vision related quality of life in spinocerebellar ataxia.

OBJECTIVE: Spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) leads to abnormal ocular motility and alignment. The objective of this study was to quantitatively assess vision, ocular motility and alignment and its impact on vision related quality of life (VRQOL) in SCA. METHODS: Nineteen genetically diagnosed SCA subjects (11 SCA type 3, 3 SCA type 1 and 5 SCA type 6) participated at two university centers. All subjects completed the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ), 10-Item Neuro-Ophthalmic Supplement (NOS), scale for assessment and rating of ataxia (SARA) and ophthalmic examination. Twelve subjects seen at one of the 2 sites underwent quantitative ocular motility and alignment assessment. RESULTS: Composite scores for NEI-VFQ (mean 76.3±13) and NOS (mean 65.2±16.8) were significantly decreased in SCA subjects. NEI-VFQ subscale scores were decreased for general, near, distance and peripheral vision and driving. SCA patients had decreased low contrast sensitivity, stereoacuity and multiple ocular motility defects which included gaze limitation (9/12), nystagmus (5/12), distance esophoria (11/12), near exophoria (12/12) and receded near point of convergence. A significant negative correlation was noted between composite scores and distance convergence fusional amplitude. CONCLUSION: VRQOL is significantly decreased in SCA compared to normal population. All SCA patients should be screened for visual disability and referred for neuro-ophthalmic assessment promptly.

Ship Compliance in Emission Control Areas: Technology Costs and Policy Instruments.

This paper explores whether a Panama Canal Authority pollution tax could be an effective economic instrument to achieve Emission Control Area (ECA)-like reductions in emissions from ships transiting the Panama Canal. This tariff-based policy action, whereby vessels in compliance with International Maritime Organisation (IMO) ECA standards pay a lower transit tariff than noncompliant vessels, could be a feasible alternative to petitioning for a Panamanian ECA through the IMO. A $4.06/container fuel tax could incentivize ECA-compliant emissions reductions for nearly two-thirds of Panama Canal container vessels, mainly through fuel switching; if the vessel(s) also operate in IMO-defined ECAs, exhaust-gas treatment technologies may be cost-effective. The RATES model presented here compares current abatement technologies based on hours of operation within an ECA, computing costs for a container vessel to comply with ECA standards in addition to computing the Canal tax that would reduce emissions in Panama. Retrofitted open-loop scrubbers are cost-effective only for vessels operating within an ECA for more than 4500 h annually. Fuel switching is the least-cost option to industry for vessels that operate mostly outside of ECA regions, whereas vessels operating entirely within an ECA region could reduce compliance cost with exhaust-gas treatment technology (scrubbers).

Bilateral central retinal artery occlusion in a patient with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is associated with a wide range of ocular manifestations. We report a case of a 20-year-old woman with newly diagnosed SLE, who awoke with bilateral simultaneous central retinal artery occlusion (CRAO). Her antiphospholipid antibody panel was normal. Vision did not recover after treatment with steroids and anticoagulation. This case suggests that such patients may be in hypercoagulable status even with negative antiphospholipid antibodies. Severe ocular complication such as CRAO may occur during the early disease process. It is important to recognize this potential risk factor and treat vigorously and early.

The idiopathic intracranial hypertension treatment trial: design considerations and methods.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to present the rationale for the main aspects of the study design and describe the trial methodology for the Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension Treatment Trial (IIHTT). METHODS: Eligible candidates with mild visual field loss (automated perimetric mean deviation [PMD] -2 to -7 dB) were randomized to receive either acetazolamide or matching placebo tablets. Randomized participants were offered participation in a supervised dietary program. The primary outcome variable, PMD, was measured at 6 months. Additionally, cerebrospinal fluid from subjects and serum from study participants and matched controls were collected for genetic analysis and vitamin A studies. An ancillary optical coherence substudy was added to investigate the changes of papilledema in the optic nerve head and retina that correlate with Frisén grading, visual field deficits, and low-contrast visual acuity. RESULTS: The randomized trial entered 165 participants from March 17, 2010, through November 27, 2012, from the United States and Canada. The primary outcome (month 6) visits were successfully completed by June 15, 2013. Blood specimens were obtained from 165 controls without IIH to investigate vitamin A metabolism and genetic markers of potential risk factors for IIH. CONCLUSIONS: The IIHTT is the first randomized, double-masked placebo-controlled trial to study the effectiveness of medical treatment for patients with IIH.

Effect of acetazolamide on visual function in patients with idiopathic intracranial hypertension and mild visual loss: the idiopathic intracranial hypertension treatment trial.

IMPORTANCE: Acetazolamide is commonly used to treat idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH), but there is insufficient information to establish an evidence base for its use. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether acetazolamide is beneficial in improving vision when added to a low-sodium weight reduction diet in patients with IIH and mild visual loss. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter, randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled study of acetazolamide in 165 participants with IIH and mild visual loss who received a low-sodium weight-reduction diet. Participants were enrolled at 38 academic and private practice sites in North America from March 2010 to November 2012 and followed up for 6 months (last visit in June 2013). All participants met the modified Dandy criteria for IIH and had a perimetric mean deviation (PMD) between -2 dB and -7 dB. The mean age was 29 years and all but 4 participants were women. INTERVENTIONS: Low-sodium weight-reduction diet plus the maximally tolerated dosage of acetazolamide (up to 4 g/d) or matching placebo for 6 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The planned primary outcome variable was the change in PMD from baseline to month 6 in the most affected eye, as measured by Humphrey Field Analyzer. Perimetric mean deviation is a measure of global visual field loss (mean deviation from age-corrected normal values), with a range of 2 to -32 dB; larger negative values indicate greater vision loss. Secondary outcome variables included changes in papilledema grade, quality of life (Visual Function Questionnaire 25 [VFQ-25] and 36-Item Short Form Health Survey), headache disability, and weight at month 6. RESULTS: The mean improvement in PMD was greater with acetazolamide (1.43 dB, from -3.53 dB at baseline to -2.10 dB at month 6; n = 86) than with placebo (0.71 dB, from -3.53 dB to -2.82 dB; n = 79); the difference was 0.71 dB (95% CI, 0 to 1.43 dB; P = .050). Mean improvements in papilledema grade (acetazolamide: -1.31, from 2.76 to 1.45; placebo: -0.61, from 2.76 to 2.15; treatment effect, -0.70; 95% CI, -0.99 to -0.41; P < .001) and vision-related quality of life as measured by the National Eye Institute VFQ-25 (acetazolamide: 8.33, from 82.97 to 91.30; placebo: 1.98, from 82.97 to 84.95; treatment effect, 6.35; 95% CI, 2.22 to 10.47; P = .003) and its 10-item neuro-ophthalmic supplement (acetazolamide: 9.82, from 75.45 to 85.27; placebo: 1.59, from 75.45 to 77.04; treatment effect, 8.23; 95% CI, 3.89 to 12.56; P < .001) were also observed with acetazolamide. Participants assigned to acetazolamide also experienced a reduction in weight (acetazolamide: -7.50 kg, from 107.72 kg to 100.22 kg; placebo: -3.45 kg, from 107.72 kg to 104.27 kg; treatment effect, -4.05 kg, 95% CI, -6.27 to -1.83 kg; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with IIH and mild visual loss, the use of acetazolamide with a low-sodium weight-reduction diet compared with diet alone resulted in modest improvement in visual field function. The clinical importance of this improvement remains to be determined. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01003639.

The idiopathic intracranial hypertension treatment trial: clinical profile at baseline.

IMPORTANCE: To our knowledge, there are no large prospective cohorts of untreated patients with idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) to characterize the disease. OBJECTIVE: To report the baseline clinical and laboratory features of patients enrolled in the Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension Treatment Trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We collected data at baseline from questionnaires, examinations, automated perimetry, and fundus photography grading. Patients (n = 165) were enrolled from March 17, 2010, to November 27, 2012, at 38 academic and private practice sites in North America. All participants met the modified Dandy criteria for IIH and had a perimetric mean deviation between -2 dB and -7 dB. All but 4 participants were women. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Baseline and laboratory characteristics. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of our patients was 29.0 (7.4) years and 4 (2.4%) were men. The average (SD) body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) was 39.9 (8.3). Headache was the most common symptom (84%). Transient visual obscurations occurred in 68% of patients, back pain in 53%, and pulse synchronous tinnitus in 52%. Only 32% reported visual loss. The average (SD) perimetric mean deviation in the worst eye was -3.5 (1.1) dB, (range, -2.0 to -6.4 dB) and in the best eye was -2.3 (1.1) dB (range, -5.2 to 0.8 dB). A partial arcuate visual field defect with an enlarged blind spot was the most common perimetric finding. Visual acuity was 85 letters or better (20/20) in 71% of the worst eyes and 77% of the best eyes. Quality of life measures, including the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire-25 and the Short Form-36 physical and mental health summary scales, were lower compared with population norms. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension Treatment Trial represents the largest prospectively analyzed cohort of untreated patients with IIH. Our data show that IIH is almost exclusively a disease of obese young women. Patients with IIH with mild visual loss have typical symptoms, may have mild acuity loss, and have visual field defects, with predominantly arcuate loss and enlarged blind spots that require formal perimetry for detection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01003639.

Graves orbitopathy: update on diagnosis and therapy.

Graves orbitopathy (GO) is an autoimmune disorder representing the most frequent extrathyroidal manifestation of Graves disease. It is rare, with an age-adjusted incidence of approximately 16.0 cases per 100,000 population per year in women and 2.9 cases per 100,000 population per year in men. GO is an inflammatory process characterized by edema and inflammation of the extraocular muscles and an increase in orbital connective tissue and fat. Despite recent progress in the understanding of its pathogenesis, GO often remains a major diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. It has become increasingly important to classify patients into categories based on disease activity at initial presentation. A Hertel exophthalmometer measurement of >2 mm above normal for race usually categorizes a patient as having moderate-to-severe GO. Encouraging smoking cessation and achieving euthyroidism in the individual patient are important. Simple treatment measures such as lubricants for lid retraction, nocturnal ointments for incomplete eye closure, prisms in diplopia, or botulinum toxin injections for upper-lid retraction can be effective in mild cases of GO. Glucocorticoids, orbital radiotherapy, and decompression/rehabilitative surgery are generally indicated for moderate-to-severe GO and for sight-threatening optic neuropathy. Future therapies, including rituximab aimed at treating the molecular and immunological basis of GO, are under investigation and hold promise for the future.