Impacts of the Minamata convention on mercury emissions and global deposition from coal-fired power generation in Asia.

We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y(-1) of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 µg·m(-2) lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y(-1) avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

Observational and modeling constraints on global anthropogenic enrichment of mercury.

Centuries of anthropogenic releases have resulted in a global legacy of mercury (Hg) contamination. Here we use a global model to quantify the impact of uncertainty in Hg atmospheric emissions and cycling on anthropogenic enrichment and discuss implications for future Hg levels. The plausibility of sensitivity simulations is evaluated against multiple independent lines of observation, including natural archives and direct measurements of present-day environmental Hg concentrations. It has been previously reported that pre-industrial enrichment recorded in sediment and peat disagree by more than a factor of 10. We find this difference is largely erroneous and caused by comparing peat and sediment against different reference time periods. After correcting this inconsistency, median enrichment in Hg accumulation since pre-industrial 1760 to 1880 is a factor of 4.3 for peat and 3.0 for sediment. Pre-industrial accumulation in peat and sediment is a factor of ∼ 5 greater than the precolonial era (3000 BC to 1550 AD). Model scenarios that omit atmospheric emissions of Hg from early mining are inconsistent with observational constraints on the present-day atmospheric, oceanic, and soil Hg reservoirs, as well as the magnitude of enrichment in archives. Future reductions in anthropogenic emissions will initiate a decline in atmospheric concentrations within 1 year, but stabilization of subsurface and deep ocean Hg levels requires aggressive controls. These findings are robust to the ranges of uncertainty in past emissions and Hg cycling.

Global biogeochemical implications of mercury discharges from rivers and sediment burial.

Rivers are an important source of mercury (Hg) to marine ecosystems. Based on an analysis of compiled observations, we estimate global present-day Hg discharges from rivers to ocean margins are 27 ± 13 Mmol a(-1) (5500 ± 2700 Mg a(-1)), of which 28% reaches the open ocean and the rest is deposited to ocean margin sediments. Globally, the source of Hg to the open ocean from rivers amounts to 30% of atmospheric inputs. This is larger than previously estimated due to accounting for elevated concentrations in Asian rivers and variability in offshore transport across different types of estuaries. Riverine inputs of Hg to the North Atlantic have decreased several-fold since the 1970s while inputs to the North Pacific have increased. These trends have large effects on Hg concentrations at ocean margins but are too small in the open ocean to explain observed declines of seawater concentrations in the North Atlantic or increases in the North Pacific. Burial of Hg in ocean margin sediments represents a major sink in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle that has not been previously considered. We find that including this sink in a fully coupled global biogeochemical box model helps to balance the large anthropogenic release of Hg from commercial products recently added to global inventories. It also implies that legacy anthropogenic Hg can be removed from active environmental cycling on a faster time scale (centuries instead of millennia). Natural environmental Hg levels are lower than previously estimated, implying a relatively larger impact from human activity.

Global source-receptor relationships for mercury deposition under present-day and 2050 emissions scenarios.

Global policies regulating anthropogenic mercury require an understanding of the relationship between emitted and deposited mercury on intercontinental scales. Here, we examine source-receptor relationships for present-day conditions and four 2050 IPCC scenarios encompassing a range of economic development and environmental regulation projections. We use the GEOS-Chem global model to track mercury from its point of emission through rapid cycling in surface ocean and land reservoirs to its accumulation in longer lived ocean and soil pools. Deposited mercury has a local component (emitted Hg(II), lifetime of 3.7 days against deposition) and a global component (emitted Hg(0), lifetime of 6 months against deposition). Fast recycling of deposited mercury through photoreduction of Hg(II) and re-emission of Hg(0) from surface reservoirs (ice, land, surface ocean) increases the effective lifetime of anthropogenic mercury to 9 months against loss to legacy reservoirs (soil pools and the subsurface ocean). This lifetime is still sufficiently short that source-receptor relationships have a strong hemispheric signature. Asian emissions are the largest source of anthropogenic deposition to all ocean basins, though there is also regional source influence from upwind continents. Current anthropogenic emissions account for only about one-third of mercury deposition to the global ocean with the remainder from natural and legacy sources. However, controls on anthropogenic emissions would have the added benefit of reducing the legacy mercury re-emitted to the atmosphere. Better understanding is needed of the time scales for transfer of mercury from active pools to stable geochemical reservoirs.