RESUMO
We report strong evidence of the importance of contact hubs (or superspreaders) in mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. Contact hubs have a much larger number of contacts than the average in the population, and play a key role on the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. By using an age-structures compartmental SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) model, calibrated from available demographic and COVID-19 incidence, and considering separately those individuals with a much greater number of contacts than the average in the population, we show that carefully choosing who will compose the first group to be vaccinated can impact positively the total death toll and the demand for health services. This is even more relevant in countries with a lack of basic resources for proper vaccination and a significant reduction in social isolation. In order to demonstrate our approach we show the effect of hypothetical vaccination scenarios in two countries of very different scales and mitigation policies, Brazil and Portugal.
Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Modelos Teóricos , Brasil , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , Humanos , Portugal , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Vacinação , Eficácia de VacinasRESUMO
Frequency and levels of IgG antibodies to an N-terminal fragment of the Plasmodium vivax MSP-1 (Pv200L) protein, in individuals naturally exposed to malaria in four endemic areas of Brazil, were evaluated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Plasma samples of 261 P. vivax-infected individuals from communities of Macapá, Novo Repartimento, Porto Velho, and Plácido de Castro in the Amazonian region with different malaria transmission intensities. A high mean number of studied individuals (89.3%) presented with antibodies to the Pv200L that correlated with the number of previous malaria infections; there were significant differences in the frequency of the responders (71.9-98.7) and in the antibody levels (1:200-1:51,200) among the four study areas. Results of this study provide evidence that Pv200L is a naturally immunogenic fragment of the PvMSP-1 and is associated with the degree of exposure to parasites. The fine specificity of antibodies to Pv200L is currently being assessed.