PD-L1 Checkpoint Inhibition Narrows the Antigen-Specific T Cell Receptor Repertoire in Chronic Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus Infection.

Checkpoint inhibitors are effective in restoring exhausted CD8+ T cell responses in persistent viral infections or tumors. Several compounds are in clinical use for different malignancies, but trials in patients with chronic viral infections have also been conducted. In a mouse model of persistent lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) infection, it was shown that checkpoint inhibitor treatment increased T cell proliferation and functionality, but its influence on the antigen-specific T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire is unknown. NP396-specific CD8+ T cells dominate during acute LCMV infection and are predominantly exhausted during chronic infection. Next-generation sequencing of NP396-specific TCRs showed that exhaustion corresponds with a significantly reduced NP396-specific TCR repertoire diversity: Shannon indices of 4 in immunized mice to 2.6 in persistently infected mice. Anti-PD-L1 treatment during persistent LCMV infection restored NP396-specific T cell responses and reduced viral titers. Nevertheless, anti-PD-L1-treated mice showed an even more narrowed TCR repertoire, with reduced TCR diversity compared to that of persistently infected control mice (Shannon indices of 2.1 and 2.6, respectively). Interestingly, anti-PD-L1 treatment-induced narrowing of the TCR repertoire negatively correlates with functional and physical restoration of the antigen-specific T cell response. Further, we found that private, hyperexpanded TCR clonotypes dominated the T cell response after anti-PD-L1 treatment. Although being private, these top clonotypes from anti-PD-L1-treated mice revealed a more closely related CDR3 motif than those of top clonotypes from persistently infected control mice. In conclusion, although targeting the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway reinvigorates exhausted CD8+ T cells, it fails to restore T cell repertoire diversity.IMPORTANCE Checkpoint inhibitors are effective immunotherapeutics to restore cancer- and virus-induced exhausted CD8+ T cells, by enhancing the quality and survival of immune responses. Although checkpoint inhibitors are already used as therapy against various cancers, not much is known about their multifaceted impact on the exhausted CD8+ T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire. This report describes for the first time the evolvement of an exhausted antigen-specific CD8+ TCR repertoire under checkpoint inhibitor treatment. By using a well-established virus model, we were able to show major shifts toward oligoclonality of the CD8+ TCR repertoire response against a massively exhausted lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) epitope. While supporting viral control in the LCMV model, oligoclonality and more private of TCR repertoires may impact future pathogenic challenges and may promote viral escape. Our results may explain the ongoing problems of viral escapes, unpredictable autoimmunity, and heterogeneous responses appearing as adverse effects of checkpoint inhibitor treatments.

A baseline tool for predicting response to peginterferon alfa-2a in HBeAg-positive patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Peginterferon induces off-treatment responses in approximately one-third of patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B. AIM: To develop an easy-to-use baseline prediction score to identify hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotype B-/C-infected HBeAg-positive Asian patients likely to respond to peginterferon alfa-2a. METHODS: Generalised additive models, multiple logistic regression (MLR) analysis and internal validation methods were applied to data from 647 HBeAg-positive patients from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to develop a scoring system to predict response 24 weeks after completing a 48-week course of peginterferon alfa-2a. RESULTS: Five baseline factors (age, sex, alanine aminotransferase ratio, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) level and HBV DNA level) were retained in the final MLR for HBeAg seroconversion and used to develop a scoring system from 0 to 7. Among patients with scores of 0-1, 2-3, 4 or ≥5, HBeAg seroconversion was achieved in 6.4% (6/94), 23.0% (61/265), 36.4% (67/184) and 54.8% (57/104), respectively, and a combined response (HBeAg seroconversion plus HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL) in 5.3% (5/94), 12.8% (34/265), 25.0% (46/184) and 36.5% (38/104), respectively. Among patients with scores of 0-1, 2-3, 4 or ≥5, 57.0% (53/93), 12.3% (31/253), 3.4% (6/178) and 1.0% (1/100) had HBsAg ≥20 000 IU/mL at treatment Week 12; only 3/91 (3.3%) with HBsAg ≥20 000 IU/mL experienced a combined response at 24 weeks post-treatment (negative predictive value = 97% [88/91]). CONCLUSION: A pre-treatment scoring system using readily available baseline characteristics identifies HBeAg-positive Asian patients likely to experience sustained HBeAg seroconversion after treatment with peginterferon alfa-2a.

[Chronic hepatitis B and D (delta) : Current and future treatments]. / Chronische Hepatitis B und D (delta) : Gegenwärtige und zukünftige Therapien.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is among the 30 leading causes of death, despite effective vaccination and therapeutic options. Chronic hepatitis delta (coinfection with hepatitis D virus) leads to a rapid disease progression. AIMS: Based on current international guidelines and studies, an overview about present and future therapeutic options for chronic hepatitis B and delta is provided. RESULTS: Therapy with nucleoside or nucleotide analogues leads to nearly complete HBV DNA suppression, which is associated with regression of liver fibrosis and a lower risk for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Therapy of chronic hepatitis delta with pegylated interferon alfa achieves only low response rates with high risk for virological relapse. Various therapeutic approaches are currently being investigated in preclinical and clinical studies and have led to a significant reduction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and HDV RNA. CONCLUSION: Current therapies of chronic HBV infection can effectively reduce subsequent complications. New therapeutic approaches promise functional cure (HBsAg loss) of HBV infection and effective treatment options for patients with chronic hepatitis delta.

Rates of sustained virological response 12 weeks after the scheduled end of direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy from the National German HCV registry: does HIV coinfection impair the response to DAA combination therapy?

OBJECTIVES: The European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) treatment recommendations for hepatitis C no longer discriminate between HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected and HCV-monoinfected patients. However, recent data from Spain are questioning these recommendations on the basis of the findings of higher relapse rates and lower cure rates in HIV/HCV-infected subjects. The aim of our study was to compare HCV cure rates in monoinfected and coinfected patients from Germany. METHODS: Data acquired from the Deutsches Hepatitis C-Registry were analysed. A total of 5657 HCV-monoinfected subjects and 488 HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were included in the study. Rates of sustained virological response 12 weeks after the scheduled end of therapy (SVR12) were collected in both subgroups and in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients. RESULTS: HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were more frequently male (84.6% vs. 56.4%, respectively; P < 0.001) and younger than HCV-monoinfected subjects (46.5 ± 9 vs. 53.8 ± 12.5 years, respectively; P < 0.001). The CD4 blood cell count was > 350 cells/µL in 63.1% of HIV-positive subjects and 88.7% were on antiretroviral therapy. SVR12 rates were 90.3% (5111 of 5657) in our HCV-monoinfected cohort and 91.2% (445 of 488) in our coinfected patients. Liver cirrhosis was confirmed in 1667 of 5657 (29.5%) monoinfected patients and 84 of 488 (17.2%; P < 0.001) coinfected patients. SVR12 rates did not differ between HCV-monoinfected and HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with liver cirrhosis (87.8% vs. 89.3%, respectively; P = 0.864). A treatment duration of 8 weeks did not reduce the percentage of patients with SVR12 in either subgroup (93.7% in both groups). CONCLUSIONS: We found high SVR12 rates in monoinfected as well as coinfected individuals. No differences were detected between the two subgroups regardless of whether there was accompanying liver cirrhosis or a shortened treatment duration.

Interferon-free therapy of chronic hepatitis C with direct-acting antivirals does not change the short-term risk for de novo hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with liver cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance with IFN-based therapies reduces the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). There has been some debate if IFN-free therapy with direct-acting antivirals alters the risk for HCC. AIM: To investigate the HCC incidence in cirrhotic HCV patients who cleared HCV with direct-acting antivirals vs untreated controls. METHODS: We prospectively monitored 373 patients with chronic hepatitis C who received IFN-free therapies with direct-acting antiviral after January 2014. A retrospective control cohort of untreated cirrhotic patients was recruited out of 3715 HCV patients who were followed at our centre between 2007 and 2013, with similar HCC screening protocols. RESULTS: 158 direct-acting antiviral-treated and 184 control patients with liver cirrhosis were included in this analysis. The groups did not differ in gender and genotype distribution, severity of liver disease and prevalence of diabetes mellitus. Patients were followed up for a median of 440 (range 91-908) and 592 (range 90-1000) days. HCCs developed in 6 and 14 patients during follow-up, resulting in an incidence of 2.90 vs 4.48 HCCs per 100 person-years. In the direct-acting antiviral-treated group, there was no new case of HCC later than 450 days after treatment initiation. In multivariate analysis, higher MELD-Scores and AFP-levels were independently associated with HCC development. Transplant-free patient survival was similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: IFN-free direct-acting antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C does not alter the short-term risk for HCC in patients with liver cirrhosis. A reduced HCC incidence may become evident after more than 1.5 years of follow-up.

[Personalized treatment of viral hepatitis of the present and the future : Hepatitis B, C, delta, and E]. / Maßgeschneiderte Therapie der Virushepatitis der Gegenwart und Zukunft : Hepatitis B, C, Delta und E.

Precision medicine is also possible for infectious diseases as shown for the treatment of chronic viral hepatitis, especially if different options are available. In hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, treatment indication as well as the choice of treatment and the decisions to stop treatment are based on viral markers and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level. Future therapies for HBV infection aiming for functional cure or even virus elimination may be even more personalized and have to take into account the immune status of a given patient. Such treatment modalities might also increase the chance for successful treatment of chronic hepatitis delta where treatment options are still very limited. Some new therapeutic concepts targeting host receptors or host enzymes are promising, but may require individualized approaches. Chronic hepatitis C is a good example for precision medicine based on viral and host factors. However, the main reason for individualized direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment is to save costs. As DAAs are effective in more than 95% of patients, elimination of HCV seems to be possible at the level of a given country or even on a global scale. However, owing to high reinfection rates in high-risk groups and limited availability of antiviral therapy in many high endemic countries, it must still be decided whether an HCV vaccine or pre-exposure prophylaxis is required to achieve this goal. Hepatitis E is an emerging topic as this is the most frequent acute hepatitis virus infection. It can result in a chronic infection in immunosuppressed individuals. Treatment options are still limited and individualized management is based on tailoring immunosuppressive therapy and therapy with ribavirin. Thus, personalized therapy of hepatitis E virus infection is still limited.

Real-world use, effectiveness and safety of anti-viral treatment in chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infection.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 (GT3) is more challenging compared with other genotypes. Since 2014, several new treatment regimens have been approved but sometimes based on limited data. AIM: To validate the use, effectiveness and safety of anti-viral treatment in chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infection under real-word conditions. METHODS: The German Hepatitis C-Registry is a large national non-interventional real-world study for patients with chronic hepatitis C. A total of 1322 GT3 patients were enrolled (211 untreated and 1111 treated patients). RESULTS: Between February 2014 and September 2015, five different treatment strategies have been used (PegIFN+RBV, PegIFN+RBV+SOF, SOF+RBV, DCV+SOF±RBV, LDV/SOF±RBV). Treatment uptake and use of treatment concepts changed markedly and rapidly during the study influenced by new approvals, guideline recommendations, and label updates. PegIFN-based therapies constantly declined while DCV-based therapies increased with one interruption after the approval of LDV/SOF, which was frequently used until new guidelines recommended not using this combination for GT3. Per-protocol SVR ranged from 80.9% in the PegIFN+RBV group to 96.1% in PegIFN+RBV+SOF treated patients. Treatment-experienced patients with cirrhosis showed a suboptimal SVR of 68% for SOF+RBV but a high SVR of 90-95% for DCV+SOF±RBV. The safety analysis showed more adverse events and a stronger decline of haemoglobin for RBV containing regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world data can validate the effectiveness and safety for treatment regimens that had previously been approved with limited data, in particular for specific subgroups of patients. The present study demonstrates how rapid new scientific data, new treatment guidelines, new drug approvals and label changes are implemented into routine clinical practice today.

Cross-genotype-specific T-cell responses in acute hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection.

Hepatitis E is an inflammatory liver disease caused by infection with the hepatitis E virus (HEV). In tropical regions, HEV is highly endemic and predominantly mediated by HEV genotypes 1 and 2 with >3 million symptomatic cases per year and around 70 000 deaths. In Europe and America, the zoonotic HEV genotypes 3 and 4 have been reported with continues increasing new infections per year. So far, little is known about T-cell responses during acute HEV genotype 3 infection. Therefore, we did a comprehensive study investigating HEV-specific T-cell responses using genotypes 3- and 1-specific overlapping peptides. Additional cytokines and chemokines were measured in the plasma. In four patients, longitudinal studies were performed. Broad functional HEV-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses were detectable in patients acutely infected with HEV genotype 3. Elevated of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine levels during acute HEV infection correlated with ALT levels. Memory HEV-specific T-cell responses were detectable up to >1.5 years upon infection. Importantly, cross-genotype HEV-specific T-cell responses (between genotypes 1 and 3) were measurable in all investigated patients. In conclusion, we could show for the first time HEV-specific T-cell responses during and after acute HEV genotype 3 infection. Our data of cross-genotype HEV-specific T-cell responses might suggest a potential role in cross-genotype-specific protection between HEV genotypes 1 and 3.

Addressing barriers to the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis B and C in the face of persisting fiscal constraints in Europe: report from a high level conference.

In the WHO-EURO region, around 28 million people are currently living with chronic viral hepatitis, and 120,000 people die every year because of it. Lack of awareness and understanding combined with the social stigma and discrimination exacerbate barriers related to access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment services for those most in need. In addition, the persisting economic crisis has impacted on public health spending, thus posing challenges on the sustainable investment in promotion, primary and secondary prevention, diagnosis and treatment of viral hepatitis across European countries. The Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association in cooperation with the Hellenic Center for Disease Prevention and Control together with 10 partner organizations discussed at the Athens High Level Meeting held in June 2014 recent policy developments, persisting and emerging challenges related to the prevention and management of viral hepatitis and the need for a de minimis framework of urgent priorities for action, reflected in a Call to Action (Appendix S1). The discussion confirmed that persisting barriers do not allow the full realisation of the public health potential of diagnosing and preventing hepatitis B and C, treating hepatitis B and curing hepatitis C. Such barriers are related to (a) lack of evidence-based knowledge of hepatitis B and C, (b) limited access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment services with poor patient pathways, (c) declining resources and (d) the presence of social stigma and discrimination. The discussion also confirmed the emerging importance of fiscal constraints on the ability of policymakers to adequately address viral hepatitis challenges, particularly through increasing coverage of newer therapies. In Europe, it is critical that public policy bodies urgently agree on a conceptual framework for addressing the existing and emerging barriers to managing viral hepatitis. Such a framework would ensure all health systems share a common understanding of definitions and indicators and look to integrate their responses to manage policy spillovers in the most cost-effective manner, while forging wide partnerships to sustainably and successfully address viral hepatitis.

[Specific infections in organ transplantation]. / Spezifische Infektionen bei Organtransplantationen.

This article is concerned with the important topic of infections associated with organ transplantation and includes a discussion on four subtopics. The first section describes the current options in the prevention and therapy of viral hepatitis in association with liver transplantation. Infections with hepatitis B, C, D (delta) and E are discussed with special emphasis on the interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C with the new antiviral drugs.The second section deals with Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA) infections following lung transplantation (LuTx), which is one of the most frequently detected pathogens in the airway after LuTx. Patients with cystic fibrosis are particularly affected. This is important because studies have shown a clear correlation between chronic PA infections after LuTx and development of chronic transplant failure. Even if the data are still sparse, recommendations on prevention and therapeutic strategies are given. The theme of the third section is the high importance of viral infections after kidney transplantation. In addition to acquired infections, the transplanted organ as well as the recipient can be the source of the infection. The better the transplanted organ is tolerated under moderate immunosuppression, the less common and severe virus infections are. The focus of this section is on three common pathogens: cytomegalovirus, polyomavirus BK and hepatitis viruses.The final section deals with Aspergillus infections following transplantation of various organs. In this context Aspergillus spp. are one of the most commonly occurring fungal diseases. The epidemiology, risk factors, diagnostics, prophylaxis and therapy of invasive aspergillosis are presented.

Improvement of liver function parameters in advanced HCV-associated liver cirrhosis by IFN-free antiviral therapies.

BACKGROUND: Successful antiviral treatment of decompensated hepatitis B with HBV polymerase inhibitors is associated with improvement of liver function. To what extent liver function also improves in cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving novel interferon-free (IFN-free) therapies is unknown. AIM: To study liver function in cirrhotic HCV patients receiving IFN-free therapies. METHODS: We here studied 80 consecutive patients with advanced HCV associated liver cirrhosis including 34 patients (43%) with Child B/C cirrhosis and 42 patients (53%) with platelet counts of <90.000/µL receiving different combinations of direct acting antivirals without interferon [sofosbuvir/ribavirin (n = 56), sofosbuvir/simeprevir ± ribavirin (n = 15) and sofosbuvir/daclatasvir ± ribavirin (n = 9)]. The majority of patients was infected with HCV genotype 1 (n = 50); HCV genotypes 2, 3 and 4 were present in 4, 24 and 2 patients, respectively. RESULTS: Liver function parameters including albumin, bilirubin, cholinesterase and prothrombin time all improved in the majority of patients during antiviral therapy irrespectively of the underlying HCV genotype, however, with different kinetics. MELD scores improved until post-treatment week 12 in 44% of the patients but worsened in 15%. A sustained virological response was achieved in 63% of the patients. HCV RNA relapse led to moderate ALT increases in 15/23 patients but was not associated with hepatic decompensations. CONCLUSION: This real-world single centre study showed that interferon-free treatment of hepatitis C patients with advanced liver cirrhosis restores liver function, and may thereby reduce the need for liver transplantations.

Dominance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is associated with lower quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen and higher serum interferon-γ-induced protein 10 levels in HBV/HCV-coinfected patients.

Different viral dominance patterns have been documented in coinfection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) based on HBV DNA and HCV RNA quantification. In most cases, HCV is dominant and suppresses HBV replication. In vitro studies revealed that there is most probably no direct interference between HBV and HCV replication. We hypothesized that indirect mechanisms mediated by host immune responses might be responsible for the different dominance patterns. In this study we analysed quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) as a marker for immune control of HBV and interferon γ-induced protein 10 (IP-10) as host marker for the endogenous interferon in 85 patients with HBV/HCV coinfection. Levels of HBsAg were closely associated with viral dominance patterns in 85 HBV/HCV-coinfected patients. HBsAg levels were lowest in patients with HCV dominance, even lower compared with HBV-monoinfected patients undergoing treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) but comparable to low replicative HBsAg carriers. An increase in HCV RNA during follow up was associated with HBsAg decline. Patients with HCV dominance had significantly higher serum IP-10 levels compared with HBV-dominant patients or HBV-monoinfected patients treated with NA. Lower HBsAg and higher IP-10 levels in HCV-dominant HBV/HCV-coinfected patients suggest that HCV suppresses HBV DNA replication and also HBsAg production by immune mechanisms.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) levels in the natural history of hepatitis B virus infection in a large European cohort predominantly infected with genotypes A and D.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) has been suggested as an additional marker of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HBcrAg combines the antigenic reactivity resulting from denatured hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), HBV core antigen and an artificial core-related protein (p22cr). In Asian patients, high levels of HBcrAg have been suggested to be an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma, while low levels could guide safe cessation of treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. We here studied HBcrAg levels in different phases of HBV infection in a large European cohort predominantly infected with genotypes A and D: HBeAg-positive immune tolerance (n = 30), HBeAg-positive immune clearance (IC) (n = 60), HBeAg-negative hepatitis (ENH) (n = 50), HBeAg-negative inactive/quiescent carrier phase (c) (n = 109) and acute hepatitis B (n = 8). Median HBcrAg levels were high in the immune tolerance and immune clearance phases (8.41 and 8.11 log U/mL, respectively), lower in ENH subjects (4.82 log U/mL) but only 2.00 log U/mL in ENQ subjects. Correlation between HBcrAg and HBV DNA varied among the different phases of HBV infection, while HBcrAg moderately correlated with hepatitis B surface antigen in all phases. ENQ patients had HBcrAg levels <3 log U/mL in 79%, in contrast to only 12% in the ENH group. HBcrAg levels vary significantly during the different phases of HBV infection. HBcrAg may serve as valuable marker for virus replication and reflect the transcriptional activity of intrahepatic cccDNA. In HBeAg-negative patients, HBcrAg may help to distinguish between inactive carriers (ENQ) and those with active disease (ENH).

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries.

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6,358,000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2,106,000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV-infected populations are critical for addressing HCV-related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden.

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

Development and evaluation of a baseline-event-anticipation score for hepatitis delta.

Hepatitis delta is considered the most severe form of viral hepatitis, but variables associated with disease progression are poorly defined. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with worse clinical outcome in patients with hepatitis delta and to develop a clinical score to determine their risk of experiencing liver-related morbidity or mortality. We followed 75 HBsAg-anti-HDV-positive patients with hepatitis delta for up to 16 years (median 5 years). The baseline-event-anticipation score (BEA score) was developed based on variables associated with the development of liver-related clinical complications. Age, region of origin, presence of cirrhosis, albumin, INR, hyperbilirubinemia and thrombocytopenia were all associated with the development of an event in the training cohort. The BEA score included age, sex, region of origin, bilirubin, platelets and INR. Points were allocated according to hazard ratios, and three risk groups were defined: BEA-A mild risk, BEA-B moderate risk and BEA-C high risk. Hazard ratios of BEA-B and BEA-C patients for liver-related clinical endpoints were 9.01 and 25.27 vs BEA-A with an area under curve of the receiving operating characteristic curve of 0.88. The accuracy of the BEA score was confirmed in two independent validation cohorts followed in Barcelona (n = 77) and Düsseldorf (n = 62). Delta hepatitis is associated with a very severe long-term outcome. The BEA score is easy to apply and predicts with a very high accuracy the development of liver-related complications in patients with hepatitis delta.