Markedly divergent estimates of Amazon forest carbon density from ground plots and satellites.

AIM: The accurate mapping of forest carbon stocks is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle, for assessing emissions from deforestation, and for rational land-use planning. Remote sensing (RS) is currently the key tool for this purpose, but RS does not estimate vegetation biomass directly, and thus may miss significant spatial variations in forest structure. We test the stated accuracy of pantropical carbon maps using a large independent field dataset. LOCATION: Tropical forests of the Amazon basin. The permanent archive of the field plot data can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5521/FORESTPLOTS.NET/2014_1. METHODS: Two recent pantropical RS maps of vegetation carbon are compared to a unique ground-plot dataset, involving tree measurements in 413 large inventory plots located in nine countries. The RS maps were compared directly to field plots, and kriging of the field data was used to allow area-based comparisons. RESULTS: The two RS carbon maps fail to capture the main gradient in Amazon forest carbon detected using 413 ground plots, from the densely wooded tall forests of the north-east, to the light-wooded, shorter forests of the south-west. The differences between plots and RS maps far exceed the uncertainties given in these studies, with whole regions over- or under-estimated by > 25%, whereas regional uncertainties for the maps were reported to be < 5%. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Pantropical biomass maps are widely used by governments and by projects aiming to reduce deforestation using carbon offsets, but may have significant regional biases. Carbon-mapping techniques must be revised to account for the known ecological variation in tree wood density and allometry to create maps suitable for carbon accounting. The use of single relationships between tree canopy height and above-ground biomass inevitably yields large, spatially correlated errors. This presents a significant challenge to both the forest conservation and remote sensing communities, because neither wood density nor species assemblages can be reliably mapped from space.

Are all seeds equal? Spatially explicit comparisons of seed fall and sapling recruitment in a tropical forest.

Understanding demographic transitions may provide the key to explain the high diversity of tropical tree communities. In a faunally intact Amazonian forest, we compared the spatial distribution of saplings of 15 common tree species with patterns of conspecific seed fall, and examined the seed-to-sapling transition in relation to locations of conspecific trees. In all species, the spatial pattern of sapling recruitment bore no resemblance to predicted distributions based on the density of seed fall. Seed efficiency (the probability of a seed producing a sapling) is strongly correlated with distance from large conspecific trees, with a >30-fold multiplicative increase between recruitment zones that are most distant vs. proximal to conspecific adults. The striking decoupling of sapling recruitment and conspecific seed density patterns indicates near-complete recruitment failure in areas of high seed density located around reproductive adults. Our results provide strong support for the spatially explicit predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis.

Breeding systems and seed size in a neotropical flora: testing evolutionary hypotheses.

A well-known, but largely untested, prediction in plant reproductive ecology is that dioecious taxa should produce larger, more, higher-quality, or better-defended seeds than cosexual taxa. Using a data set composed of 972 species in 104 families, representing the flora of the Tambopata Wildlife Reserve (Madre de Dios, Peru), we evaluated the first component of this prediction, examining ecological and evolutionary relationships between breeding system and mean seed size with two kinds of tests. First, we conducted cross-species analyses to determine whether species with different breeding systems differed significantly with respect to mean individual seed size. Second, we used a hypothesized phylogeny to identify pairs of the most closely related taxa or clades within the Tambopata community that differed with respect to breeding system. Comparing pair members allowed us to determine whether evolutionary divergence in breeding system (between taxa with unisexual vs. cosexual individuals) was consistently associated with evolutionary change in seed size. In both analyses, we controlled for potentially confounding effects of growth form by examining these relationships within woody and nonwoody taxa. Cross-species analyses revealed that dioecious species produced larger seeds than cosexual species among woody species, shrubs, lianas (each growth form analyzed separately), and all species pooled, but not among trees. Phylogenetically independent contrasts upheld the significant association between breeding system and seed size among woody taxa, lianas, and all taxa pooled, but not among shrubs. We discuss the implications of our findings for evolutionary hypotheses regarding associations between dioecy and seed size.

Effect of distance, aggregation, and habitat on levels of seed predation for two mammal - dispersed neotropical rain forest tree species.

The effect of seed aggregation and distance from conspecific trees on seed predation was experimentally examined for two neotropical tree species, Macoubea guianensis (Apocynaceae) and Pouteria sp. (Sapotaceae) in a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Peru. Results of these experiments are discussed in the context of the Janzen-Connell model (Janzen 1970; Connell 1971), which predicts decreased seed survival near parent trees due to either density-or distance-responsive mortality, and Howe's model (Howe 1989) which predicts that trees with seeds dispersed in clumps (aggregated) will not suffer density-dependent predation, and will have higher survival of seeds near the parent tree than other trees. We also examined whether predation on seeds of these species was affected by seed placement in or near 30-m-wide strips regenerating after clear-cutting. Both species appeared to be mammal-dispersed but differed in how frugivores handled seeds, seed size, overall fruit crop size, and gemination time. Neither of the two species studied appeared to suffer seed predation in a manner predicted by the Janzen-Connell model, and patterns of seed predation for only one of the species was similar to predictions of Howe's model. For neither species did seed predation along the edge of, or in the center of, regenerating clear cuts differ from predation 15 m into the primary forest. For Pouteria, seed predation in and near regnerating strips was significantly greater than around forest trees, but the opposite pattern held for Macoubea. Overall, seed predation was much greater on Macoubea. The difference in seed predation for these two species was most likely a result of differences in the types of seed predators that attacked these two species.