Effectiveness of Seizure Dogs for People With Severe Refractory Epilepsy: Results From the EPISODE Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether people living with severe medically refractory epilepsy (PSRE) benefit from a seizure dog. METHODS: An individual-level stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial was conducted. The study was conducted in the Netherlands among adults with daily to weekly seizures. All participants were included simultaneously (on June 1, 2019) while receiving usual care. Then, during the 36-month follow-up, they received a seizure dog in a randomized sequence. Participants kept a seizure diary and completed 3-monthly surveys. Seizure frequency was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included seizure-free days, seizure severity, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and well-being. Data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM). The models assumed a delayed intervention effect, starting when the seizure dog reached an advanced stage of training. Effects were calculated as changes per 28-day period with the intervention. RESULTS: Data were collected from 25 participants, of whom 20 crossed over to the intervention condition. The median follow-up was 19 months with usual care and 12 months with the intervention. On average, participants experienced 115 (SD 164) seizures per 28-day period in the usual care condition and 73 (SD 131) seizures in the intervention condition. Seven participants achieved a reduction of 50% or more at the end of follow-up. GLMM indicated a 3.1% decrease in seizure frequency for each consecutive 28-day period with the intervention (0.969, 95% CI 0.960-0.977). Furthermore, an increase in the number of seizure-free days was observed (1.012, 95% CI 1.009, 1.015), but no effect on seizure severity measured with the NHS3. Generic HRQoL scores improved, as reflected in the decrease in EQ-5D-5L utility decrement (0.975, 95% CI 0.954-0.997). Smaller improvements were observed on overall self-rated HRQoL, epilepsy-specific HRQoL, and well-being, measured with the EQ VAS, QOLIE-31-P, and ICECAP-A, respectively. DISCUSSION: Seizure dogs reduce seizure frequency, increase the number of seizure-free days, and improve the quality of life of PSRE. The magnitude of the effect on generic HRQoL indicates that seizure dogs benefit PSRE beyond the impact on seizure frequency alone. Early discontinuation of seizure dog partnerships suggests that this intervention is not suitable for all PSRE and requires further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: This study was registered in the Dutch Trial Register (NL6682) on November 28, 2017. Participants were enrolled on June 1, 2019. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that seizure dogs are associated with a decrease in seizure frequency in adult patients with medically refractory epilepsy.

A blueprint for health technology assessment capacity building: lessons learned from Malta.

OBJECTIVES: The development and strengthening of health technology assessment (HTA) capacity on the individual and organizational level and the wider environment is relevant for cooperation on HTAs. Based on the Maltese case, we provide a blueprint for building HTA capacity. METHODS: A set of activities were developed based on Pichler et al.'s framework and the starting HTA capacity in Malta. Individual level activities focused on strengthening epidemiological and health economic skills through online and in-person training. On the organizational level, a new HTA framework was developed which was subsequently utilized in a shadow assessment. Awareness campaign activities raised awareness and support in the wider environment where HTAs are conducted and utilized. RESULTS: The time needed to build HTA capacity exceeded the planned two years accommodating the learning progress of the assessors. In addition to the planned trainings, webinars supplemented the online courses, allowing for more knowledge exchange. The advanced online course was extended over time to facilitate learning next to the assessors' daily tasks. Training sessions were added to implement the new economic evaluation framework, which was utilized in a second shadow assessment. Awareness by decision-makers was achieved with reports, posters, and an article on the current and developing HTA capacity. CONCLUSIONS: It takes time and much (hands-on) training to build skills for conducting complex assessment such as HTAs. Facilitating exchange with knowledgeable parties is crucial for succeeding as well as the buy-in of local managers motivating staff. Decision-makers need to be on-boarded for the continued success of HTA capacity building.

Home Telemonitoring and a Diagnostic Algorithm in the Management of Heart Failure in the Netherlands: Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major health concern associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and reduced quality of life in patients. Home telemonitoring (HTM) facilitates frequent or continuous assessment of disease signs and symptoms, and it has shown to improve compliance by involving patients in their own care and prevent emergency admissions by facilitating early detection of clinically significant changes. Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are predictive mathematical relationships that make use of a wide range of collected data for calculating the likelihood of a particular event and use this output for prioritizing patients with regard to their treatment. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of HTM and a DA in the management of heart failure in the Netherlands. Three interventions were analyzed: usual care, HTM, and HTM plus a DA. METHODS: A previously published discrete event simulation model was used. The base-case analysis was performed according to the Dutch guidelines for economic evaluation. Sensitivity, scenario, and value of information analyses were performed. Particular attention was given to the cost-effectiveness of the DA at various levels of diagnostic accuracy of event prediction and to different patient subgroups. RESULTS: HTM plus the DA extendedly dominates HTM alone, and it has a deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with usual care of €27,712 (currency conversion rate in purchasing power parity at the time of study: €1=US $1.29; further conversions are not applicable in cost-effectiveness terms) per quality-adjusted life year. The model showed robustness in the sensitivity and scenario analyses. HTM plus the DA had a 96.0% probability of being cost-effective at the appropriate €80,000 per quality-adjusted life year threshold. An optimal point for the threshold value for the alarm of the DA in terms of its cost-effectiveness was estimated. New York Heart Association class IV patients were the subgroup with the worst cost-effectiveness results versus usual care, while HTM plus the DA was found to be the most cost-effective for patients aged <65 years and for patients in New York Heart Association class I. CONCLUSIONS: Although the increased costs of adopting HTM plus the DA in the management of heart failure may seemingly be an additional strain on scarce health care resources, the results of this study demonstrate that, by increasing patient life expectancy by 1.28 years and reducing their hospitalization rate by 23% when compared with usual care, the use of this technology may be seen as an investment, as HTM plus the DA in its current form extendedly dominates HTM alone and is cost-effective compared with usual care at normally accepted thresholds in the Netherlands.

The Net Benefit of Personalized Medicine: A Systematic Literature Review and Regression Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Amidst conflicting expectations about the benefits of personalized medicine (PM) and the potentially high implementation costs, we reviewed the available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of PM relative to non-PM. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of economic evaluations of PM and extracted data, including incremental quality-adjusted life-years (ΔQALYs) and incremental costs (Δcosts). ΔQALYs and Δcosts were combined with estimates of national cost-effectiveness thresholds to calculate incremental net monetary benefit (ΔNMB). Regression analyses were performed with these variables as dependent variables and PM intervention characteristics as independent variables. Random intercepts were used to cluster studies according to country. RESULTS: Of 4774 studies reviewed, 128 were selected, providing cost-effectiveness data for 279 PM interventions. Most studies were set in the United States (48%) and the United Kingdom (16%) and adopted a healthcare perspective (82%). Cancer treatments (60%) and pharmaceutical interventions (72%) occurred frequently. Prognostic tests (19%) and tests to identify (non)responders (37%) were least and most common, respectively. Industry sponsorship occurred in 32%. Median ΔQALYs, Δcosts, and ΔNMB per individual were 0.03, Int$575, and Int$18, respectively. We found large heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness. Regression analysis showed that gene therapies were associated with higher ΔQALYs than other interventions. PM interventions for neoplasms brought higher ΔNMB than PM interventions for other conditions. Nonetheless, average ΔNMB in the 'neoplasm' group was found to be negative. CONCLUSIONS: PM brings improvements in health but often at a high cost, resulting in 0 to negative ΔNMB on average. Pricing policies may be needed to reduce the costs of interventions with negative ΔNMB.

Therapeutic Drug Monitoring-Guided Adjuvant Tamoxifen Dosing in Patients with Early Breast Cancer: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis from the Prospective TOTAM Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Endoxifen is the active metabolite of tamoxifen, and a minimal plasma concentration of 16 nM has been suggested as a threshold above which it is effective in reducing the risk of breast cancer recurrence. The aim of the current analysis was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)-guided tamoxifen dosing. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a Dutch healthcare perspective, using a partitioned survival model and a lifetime horizon. The reduction in subtherapeutic treatment following TDM is modelled as improved rates of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in comparison to standard tamoxifen treatment. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and a series of scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Base-case results estimated a total increase in life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for TDM of 0.40 and 0.53, respectively. Total costs for TDM and standard tamoxifen treatment are €32,893 and €39,524, respectively. The TDM intervention results in both more QALYs and less healthcare costs, indicating a dominating effect for TDM. The PSA results indicate that the probability of TDM being cost-effective is 92% when using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000. CONCLUSIONS: TDM-guided dose optimization of tamoxifen is estimated to save costs and increase QALYs for early breast cancer patients.

Four Aspects Affecting Health Economic Decision Models and Their Validation.

Health care decision makers in many jurisdictions use cost-effectiveness analysis based on health economic decision models for policy decisions regarding coverage and price negotiation for medicines and medical devices. While validation of health economic decision models has always been considered important, many reviews of model-based cost-effectiveness studies report limitations regarding their validation. The current opinion paper discusses four aspects of current health economic decision modeling with relevance for future directions in model validation: increased use of complex models, international cooperation, open-source modeling, and stakeholder involvement. First, new, more complex clinical study designs and treatment strategies may require relatively complex model structures and/or input data analyses. Simultaneously, more widespread technical knowledge along with wider data availability have led to a broader range of model types. This puts extra requirements on model validation and transparency. Second, increased international cooperation of policy makers and, in particular, health technology assessment (HTA) authorities in performing model assessments is discussed in relation to the repeated use of health economic models (multi-use disease models). We argue such coordinated efforts may benefit model validity. Third, open-source modeling is discussed as one possible answer to increased transparency requirements. Finally, involvement of all relevant stakeholders throughout the whole decision process is an ongoing development that necessarily also includes health economic modeling. We argue this implies that model validity should be considered in a broader perspective, with more focus on conceptual modeling, model transparency, accuracy requirements, and choice of relevant model outcomes than previously.

Modeling Early Warning Systems: Construction and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: Developing and validating a discrete event simulation model that is able to model patients with heart failure managed with usual care or an early warning system (with or without a diagnostic algorithm) and to account for the impact of individual patient characteristics in their health outcomes. METHODS: The model was developed using patient-level data from the Trans-European Network - Home-Care Management System study. It was coded using RStudio Version 1.3.1093 (version 3.6.2.) and validated along the lines of the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models tool. The model includes 20 patient and disease characteristics and generates 8 different outcomes. Model outcomes were generated for the base-case analysis and used in the model validation. RESULTS: Patients managed with the early warning system, compared with usual care, experienced an average increase of 2.99 outpatient visits and a decrease of 0.02 hospitalizations per year, with a gain of 0.81 life years (0.45 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average total costs of €11 249. Adding a diagnostic algorithm to the early warning system resulted in a 0.92 life year gain (0.57 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average costs of €9680. These patients experienced a decrease of 0.02 outpatient visits and 0.65 hospitalizations per year, while they avoided being hospitalized 0.93 times. The model showed robustness and validity of generated outcomes when comparing them with other models addressing the same problem and with external data. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a unique patient-level simulation model that can be used for simulating a wide range of outcomes for different patient subgroups and treatment scenarios. It provides useful information for guiding research and for developing new treatment options by showing the hypothetical impact of these interventions on a large number of important heart failure outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination tiotropium/olodaterol versus tiotropium monotherapy or a fixed-dose combination of long-acting ß2-agonist/inhaled corticosteroid for COPD in Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands: a model-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines advocate treatment with combinations of long-acting bronchodilators for patients with COPD who have persistent symptoms or continue to have exacerbations while using a single bronchodilator. This study assessed the cost-utility of the fixed dose combination of the bronchodilators tiotropium and olodaterol versus two comparators, tiotropium monotherapy and long-acting ß2 agonist/inhaled corticosteroid (LABA/ICS) combinations, in three European countries: Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands. METHODS: A previously published COPD patient-level discrete event simulation model was updated with most recent evidence to estimate lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs for COPD patients receiving either tiotropium/olodaterol, tiotropium monotherapy or LABA/ICS. Treatment efficacy covered impact on trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), total and severe exacerbations and pneumonias. The unit costs of medication, maintenance treatment, exacerbations and pneumonias were obtained for each country. The country-specific analyses adhered to the Finnish, Swedish and Dutch pharmacoeconomic guidelines, respectively. RESULTS: Treatment with tiotropium/olodaterol gained QALYs ranging from 0.09 (Finland and Sweden) to 0.11 (the Netherlands) versus tiotropium and 0.23 (Finland and Sweden) to 0.28 (the Netherlands) versus LABA/ICS. The Finnish payer's incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of tiotropium/olodaterol was €11 000/QALY versus tiotropium and dominant versus LABA/ICS. The Swedish ICERs were €6200/QALY and dominant, respectively (societal perspective). The Dutch ICERs were €14 400 and €9200, respectively (societal perspective). The probability that tiotropium/olodaterol was cost-effective compared with tiotropium at the country-specific (unofficial) threshold values for the maximum willingness to pay for a QALY was 84% for Finland, 98% for Sweden and 99% for the Netherlands. Compared with LABA/ICS, this probability was 100% for all three countries. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the simulations, tiotropium/olodaterol is a cost-effective treatment option versus tiotropium or LABA/ICS in all three countries. In both Finland and Sweden, tiotropium/olodaterol is more effective and cost saving (ie, dominant) in comparison with LABA/ICS.

How to Address Uncertainty in Health Economic Discrete-Event Simulation Models: An Illustration for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Background. Evaluation of personalized treatment options requires health economic models that include multiple patient characteristics. Patient-level discrete-event simulation (DES) models are deemed appropriate because of their ability to simulate a variety of characteristics and treatment pathways. However, DES models are scarce in the literature, and details about their methods are often missing. Methods. We describe 4 challenges associated with modeling heterogeneity and structural, stochastic, and parameter uncertainty that can be encountered during the development of DES models. We explain why these are important and how to correctly implement them. To illustrate the impact of the modeling choices discussed, we use (results of) a model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as a case study. Results. The results from the case study showed that, under a correct implementation of the uncertainty in the model, a hypothetical intervention can be deemed as cost-effective. The consequences of incorrect modeling uncertainty included an increase in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ranging from 50% to almost a factor of 14, an extended life expectancy of approximately 1.4 years, and an enormously increased uncertainty around the model outcomes. Thus, modeling uncertainty incorrectly can have substantial implications for decision making. Conclusions. This article provides guidance on the implementation of uncertainty in DES models and improves the transparency of reporting uncertainty methods. The COPD case study illustrates the issues described in the article and helps understanding them better. The model R code shows how the uncertainty was implemented. For readers not familiar with R, the model's pseudo-code can be used to understand how the model works. By doing this, we can help other developers, who are likely to face similar challenges to those described here.

Evaluating the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Seizure Dogs in Persons With Medically Refractory Epilepsy in the Netherlands: Study Protocol for a Stepped Wedge Randomized Controlled Trial (EPISODE).

Background: Epilepsy is associated with a high disease burden, impacting the lives of people with epilepsy and their caregivers and family. Persons with medically refractory epilepsy experience the greatest burden, suffering from profound physical, psychological, and social consequences. Anecdotal evidence suggests these persons may benefit from a seizure dog. As the training of a seizure dog is a substantial investment, their accessibility is limited in the absence of collective reimbursement as is seen in the Netherlands. Despite sustained interest in seizure dogs, scientific knowledge on their benefits and costs remains scarce. To substantiate reimbursement decisions stronger evidence is required. The EPISODE study aims to provide this evidence by evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of seizure dogs in adults with medically refractory epilepsy. Methods: The study is designed as a stepped wedge randomized controlled trial that compares the use of seizure dogs in addition to usual care, with usual care alone. The study includes adults with epilepsy for whom current treatment options failed to achieve seizure freedom. Seizure frequency of participants should be at least two seizures per week, and the seizures should be associated with a high risk of injury or dysfunction. During the 3 year follow-up period, participants receive a seizure dog in a randomized order. Outcome measures are taken at multiple time points both before and after receiving the seizure dog. Seizure frequency is the primary outcome of the study and will be recorded continuously using a seizure diary. Questionnaires measuring seizure severity, quality of life, well-being, resource use, productivity, social participation, and caregiver burden will be completed at baseline and every 3 months thereafter. The study is designed to include a minimum of 25 participants. Discussion: This protocol describes the first randomized controlled trial on seizure dogs. The study will provide comprehensive data on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of seizure dogs in adults with medically refractory epilepsy. Broader benefits of seizure dogs for persons with epilepsy and their caregivers are taken into account, as well as the welfare of the dogs. The findings of the study can be used to inform decision-makers on the reimbursement of seizure dogs.

Broadening the Perspective of Cost-Effectiveness Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A New Patient-Level Simulation Model Suitable to Evaluate Stratified Medicine.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a health economic model that included a great diversity of patient characteristics and outcomes for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which can be used to inform decisions about stratified medicine in COPD. METHODS: The choice of patient characteristics and outcomes to include in the model was based on 3 literature reviews on multidimensional prognostic COPD indices, COPD phenotypes, and treatment effects in subgroups. A conceptual model was constructed including 14 patient characteristics, 7 intermediate outcomes (lung function, physical activity, exercise capacity, symptoms, disease-specific quality of life, exacerbations, and pneumonias), and 3 final outcomes (mortality, quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], and costs). Regression equations describing the statistical associations between the patient characteristics and intermediate and final outcomes were estimated using the longitudinal data of 5 large COPD trials (19,378 patients). A patient-level simulation model was developed in which individual patients from the baseline population of the 5 trials are sampled and their outcomes over lifetime are predicted based on the regression equations. RESULTS: The base-case analysis (single-arm simulation representing treatment with tiotropium) showed that patients had a mean lung function decline of 43 mL/year, 0.62 exacerbations/year, a worsening of their physical activity and quality of life with 1.48 and 1.10 points/year, a life expectancy of 11.2 years, 7.25 QALYs, and total lifetime costs of £24,891. Results for a selection of treatment scenarios and subgroups were shown to demonstrate the potential of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a unique patient-level simulation model that can be used to evaluate COPD treatment options for a variety of subgroups.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium plus olodaterol based on the DYNAGITO trial results.

PURPOSE: Combinations of long-acting bronchodilators are recommended to reduce the rate of COPD exacerbations. Evidence from the DYNAGITO trial showed that the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium + olodaterol reduced the annual rate of total exacerbations (P<0.05) compared with tiotropium monotherapy. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the fixed-dose combination of tiotropium + olodaterol vs tiotropium monotherapy in COPD patients in the French setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A recently developed COPD patient-level simulation model was used to simulate the lifetime effects and costs for 15,000 patients receiving either tiotropium + olodaterol or tiotropium monotherapy by applying the reduction in annual exacerbation rate as observed in the DYNAGITO trial. The model was adapted to the French setting by including French unit costs for treatment medication, COPD maintenance treatment, COPD exacerbations (moderate or severe), and pneumonia. The main outcomes were the annual (severe) exacerbation rate, the number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total lifetime costs. RESULTS: The number of QALYs for treatment with tiotropium + olodaterol was 0.042 higher compared with tiotropium monotherapy. Using a societal perspective, tiotropium + olodaterol resulted in a cost increase of +€123 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €2,900 per QALY compared with tiotropium monotherapy. From a French National Sickness Fund perspective, total lifetime costs were reduced by €272 with tiotropium + olodaterol, resulting in tiotropium + olodaterol being the dominant treatment option, that is, more effects with less costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing the cost of exacerbations by 34% increased the ICER to €15,400, which could still be considered cost-effective in the French setting. CONCLUSION: Treatment with tiotropium + olodaterol resulted in a gain in QALYs and savings in costs compared with tiotropium monotherapy using a National Sickness Fund perspective in France. From the societal perspective, tiotropium + olodaterol was found to be cost-effective with a low cost per QALY.

What Is the Potential of Tissue-Engineered Pulmonary Valves in Children?

BACKGROUND: As a living heart valve substitute with growth potential and improved durability, tissue-engineered heart valves (TEHVs) may prevent reinterventions that are currently often needed in children with congenital heart disease. We performed early health technology assessment to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of TEHVs in children requiring right ventricular outflow tract reconstruction (RVOTR). METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of studies reporting clinical outcome after RVOTR with existing heart valve substitutes in children (mean age ≤12 years or maximum age ≤21 years) published between January 1, 2000, and May 2, 2018. Using a patient-level simulation model, costs and effects of RVOTR with TEHVs compared with existing heart valve substitutes were assessed from a health care perspective applying a 10-year time horizon. Improvements in performance of TEHVs, divided in durability, thrombogenicity, and infection resistance, were explored to estimate quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain, cost reduction, headroom, and budget impact associated with TEHVs. RESULTS: Five-year freedom from reintervention after RVOTR with existing heart valve substitutes was 46.1% in patients less than or equal to 2 years of age and 81.1% in patients greater than 2 years of age. Improvements in durability had the highest impact on QALYs and costs. In the improved TEHV performance scenario (durability ≥5 years and -50% other valve-related events), QALY gain was 0.074 and cost reduction was €10,378 per patient, translating to maximum additional costs of €11,856 per TEHV compared with existing heart valve substitutes. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that there is room for improvement in clinical outcomes in children requiring RVOTR. If TEHVs result in improved clinical outcomes, they are expected to be cost-effective compared with existing heart valve substitutes.

Obinutuzumab in Combination with Chemotherapy for the First-Line Treatment of Patients with Advanced Follicular Lymphoma : An Evidence Review Group Evaluation of the NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), as part of the institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process, invited the company that makes obinutuzumab (Roche Products Limited) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug in combination with chemotherapy, with or without obinutuzumab as maintenance therapy for adult patients with untreated, advanced follicular lymphoma (FL) in the UK. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company's submission, the ERG review, and NICE's subsequent decisions. The clinical evidence was derived from two phase III, company-sponsored, randomised, open-label studies. Most evidence on obinutuzumab was based on the GALLIUM trial that compared obinutuzumab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by obinutuzumab maintenance monotherapy with rituximab in combination with chemotherapy as induction followed by rituximab maintenance monotherapy in previously untreated patients with FL (grades 1-3a). Long-term clinical evidence was based on the PRIMA trial, studying the benefit of two years of rituximab maintenance after first-line treatment in patients with FL. The cost-effectiveness evidence submitted by the company relied on a partitioned survival cost-utility model, implemented in Microsoft® Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) presented in the company submission was <£20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Although the ERG concluded that the economic model met the NICE reference case to a reasonable extent, some errors were identified and several assumptions made by the company were challenged. A new base-case scenario produced by the ERG suggested an ICER that was higher than the company base case, but still below £30,000 per QALY gained. However, some ERG scenario analyses were close to or even above the threshold. This was the case in particular for assuming a treatment effect that did not extend beyond trial follow-up. These results led to an initial negative recommendation by the appraisal committee. Subsequently, the company submitted a revised base case focusing on patients at intermediate or high risk of premature mortality. Simultaneously, a further price discount for obinutuzumab was granted. In addition to the company's revised base case, the ERG suggested a restriction of the treatment effect to 5 years and implemented biosimilar uptake and cheaper prices for rituximab. All of these adjustments did not exceed £30,000 per QALY gained and therefore the use of obinutuzumab for patients with advanced FL and a Follicular Lymphoma International Predictive Index (FLIPI) score of two or more could be recommended.

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios.

BACKGROUND: In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population. METHODS: We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion. RESULTS: Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592-2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and affected elderly, and a reduction in time invested by carers. Various realistic policy scenarios even forecast larger health gains and cost-savings in the future. More importantly, the longer the implementation is postponed the larger the savings foregone. The future organisation of healthcare affects the category in which the greatest savings will be generated.

Research Costs Investigated: A Study Into the Budgets of Dutch Publicly Funded Drug-Related Research.

BACKGROUND: The costs of performing research are an important input in value of information (VOI) analyses but are difficult to assess. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the costs of research, serving two purposes: (1) estimating research costs for use in VOI analyses; and (2) developing a costing tool to support reviewers of grant proposals in assessing whether the proposed budget is realistic. METHODS: For granted study proposals from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), type of study, potential cost drivers, proposed budget, and general characteristics were extracted. Regression analysis was conducted in an attempt to generate a 'predicted budget' for certain combinations of cost drivers, for implementation in the costing tool. RESULTS: Of 133 drug-related research grant proposals, 74 were included for complete data extraction. Because an association between cost drivers and budgets was not confirmed, we could not generate a predicted budget based on regression analysis, but only historic reference budgets given certain study characteristics. The costing tool was designed accordingly, i.e. with given selection criteria the tool returns the range of budgets in comparable studies. This range can be used in VOI analysis to estimate whether the expected net benefit of sampling will be positive to decide upon the net value of future research. CONCLUSION: The absence of association between study characteristics and budgets may indicate inconsistencies in the budgeting or granting process. Nonetheless, the tool generates useful information on historical budgets, and the option to formally relate VOI to budgets. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt at creating such a tool, which can be complemented with new studies being granted, enlarging the underlying database and keeping estimates up to date.

A New Statistical Method to Determine the Degree of Validity of Health Economic Model Outcomes against Empirical Data.

BACKGROUND: The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates. OBJECTIVES: To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers. METHODS: A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid. RESULTS: We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity. CONCLUSIONS: Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals.

Faecal immunochemical tests to triage patients with lower abdominal symptoms for suspected colorectal cancer referrals in primary care: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the UK. Presenting symptoms that can be associated with CRC usually have another explanation. Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) detect blood that is not visible to the naked eye and may help to select patients who are likely to benefit from further investigation. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of FITs [OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co./MAST Diagnostics, Tokyo, Japan), HM-JACKarc (Kyowa Medex/Alpha Laboratories Ltd, Tokyo, Japan), FOB Gold (Sentinel/Sysmex, Sentinel Diagnostics, Milan, Italy), RIDASCREEN Hb or RIDASCREEN Hb/Hp complex (R-Biopharm, Darmstadt, Germany)] for primary care triage of people with low-risk symptoms. METHODS: Twenty-four resources were searched to March 2016. Review methods followed published guidelines. Summary estimates were calculated using a bivariate model or a random-effects logistic regression model. The cost-effectiveness analysis considered long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) that were associated with different faecal occult blood tests and direct colonoscopy referral. Modelling comprised a diagnostic decision model, a Markov model for long-term costs and QALYs that were associated with CRC treatment and progression, and a Markov model for QALYs that were associated with no CRC. RESULTS: We included 10 studies. Using a single sample and 10 µg Hb/g faeces threshold, sensitivity estimates for OC-Sensor [92.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 86.9% to 95.3%] and HM-JACKarc (100%, 95% CI 71.5% to 100%) indicated that both may be useful to rule out CRC. Specificity estimates were 85.8% (95% CI 78.3% to 91.0%) and 76.6% (95% CI 72.6% to 80.3%). Triage using FITs could rule out CRC and avoid colonoscopy in approximately 75% of symptomatic patients. Data from our systematic review suggest that 22.5-93% of patients with a positive FIT and no CRC have other significant bowel pathologies. The results of the base-case analysis suggested minimal difference in QALYs between all of the strategies; no triage (referral straight to colonoscopy) is the most expensive. Faecal immunochemical testing was cost-effective (cheaper and more, or only slightly less, effective) compared with no triage. Faecal immunochemical testing was more effective and costly than guaiac faecal occult blood testing, but remained cost-effective at a threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £30,000. The results of scenario analyses did not differ substantively from the base-case. Results were better for faecal immunochemical testing when accuracy of the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) was based on studies that were more representative of the correct population. LIMITATIONS: Only one included study evaluated faecal immunochemical testing in primary care; however, all of the other studies evaluated faecal immunochemical testing at the point of referral. Further, validation data for the Faecal haemoglobin, Age and Sex Test (FAST) score, which includes faecal immunochemical testing, showed no significant difference in performance between primary and secondary care. There were insufficient data to adequately assess FOB Gold, RIDASCREEN Hb or RIDASCREEN Hb/Hp complex. No study compared FIT assays, or FIT assays versus gFOBT; all of the data included in this assessment refer to the clinical effectiveness of individual FIT methods and not their comparative effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Faecal immunochemical testing is likely to be a clinically effective and cost-effective strategy for triaging people who are presenting, in primary care settings, with lower abdominal symptoms and who are at low risk for CRC. Further research is required to confirm the effectiveness of faecal immunochemical testing in primary care practice and to compare the performance of different FIT assays. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016037723. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cost Recommendation under Uncertainty in IQWiG's Efficiency Frontier Framework.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) employs an efficiency frontier (EF) framework to facilitate setting maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is used when yes/no reimbursement decisions are sought based on a fixed threshold. In the IQWiG framework, an additional layer of complexity arises as the EF itself may vary its shape in each PSA iteration, and thus the willingness-to-pay, indicated by the EF segments, may vary. OBJECTIVES: To explore the practical problems arising when, within the EF approach, maximum reimbursable prices for new interventions are sought through PSA. METHODS: When the EF is varied in a PSA, cost recommendations for new interventions may be determined by the mean or the median of the distances between each intervention's point estimate and each EF. Implications of using these metrics were explored in a simulation study based on the model used by IQWiG to assess the cost-effectiveness of 4 antidepressants. RESULTS: Depending on the metric used, cost recommendations can be contradictory. Recommendations based on the mean can also be inconsistent. Results (median) suggested that costs of duloxetine, venlafaxine, mirtazapine, and bupropion should be decreased by €131, €29, €12, and €99, respectively. These recommendations were implemented and the analysis repeated. New results suggested keeping the costs as they were. The percentage of acceptable PSA outcomes increased 41% on average, and the uncertainty associated to the net health benefit was significantly reduced. CONCLUSIONS: The median of the distances between every intervention outcome and every EF is a good proxy for the cost recommendation that would be given should the EF be fixed. Adjusting costs according to the median increased the probability of acceptance and reduced the uncertainty around the net health benefit distribution, resulting in a reduced uncertainty for decision makers.