Prediction interval: A powerful statistical tool for monitoring patients and analytical systems.

Monitoring is indispensable for assessing disease prognosis and evaluating the effectiveness of treatment strategies, both of which rely on serial measurements of patients' data. It also plays a critical role in maintaining the stability of analytical systems, which is achieved through serial measurements of quality control samples. Accurate monitoring can be achieved through data collection, following a strict preanalytical and analytical protocol, and the application of a suitable statistical method. In a stable process, future observations can be predicted based on historical data collected during periods when the process was deemed reliable. This can be evaluated using the statistical prediction interval. Statistically, prediction interval gives an "interval" based on historical data where future measurement results can be located with a specified probability such as 95%. Prediction interval consists of two primary components: (i) the set point and (ii) the total variation around the set point which determines the upper and lower limits of the interval. Both can be calculated using the repeated measurement results obtained from the process during its steady-state. In this paper, (i) the theoretical bases of prediction intervals were outlined, and (ii) its practical application was explained through examples, aiming to facilitate the implementation of prediction intervals in laboratory medicine routine practice, as a robust tool for monitoring patients' data and analytical systems.

Biological Variation Estimates for Plasma Copeptin and Clinical Implications.

BACKGROUND: Plasma copeptin measurement is useful for the differential diagnoses of polyuria-polydipsia syndrome. It has also been proposed as a prognostic marker for cardiovascular diseases. However, limited information is available about the within- (CVI) and between-subject (CVG) biological variation (BV). This study presents BV estimates for copeptin in healthy individuals. METHODS: Samples were collected weekly from 41 healthy subjects over 5 weeks and analyzed using the BRAHMS Copeptin proAVP KRYPTOR assay after at least 8 h of food and fluid abstinence. Outlier detection, variance homogeneity, and trend analysis were performed followed by CV-ANOVA for BV and analytical variation (CVA) estimation with 95% confidence intervals. Reference change values (RCVs), index of individuality (II), and analytical performance specification (APS) were also calculated. RESULTS: The analysis included 178 results from 20 males and 202 values from 21 females. Copeptin concentrations were significantly higher in males than in females (mean 8.5 vs 5.2 pmol/L, P < 0.0001). CVI estimates were 18.0% (95% CI, 15.4%-21.6%) and 19.0% (95% CI, 16.4%-22.6%), for males and females, respectively; RCVs were -35% (decreasing value) and 54% (increasing value). There was marked individuality for copeptin. No result exceeded the diagnostic threshold (>21.4 pmol/L) for arginine vasopressin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of BV data allows for refined APS and associated II, and RCVs applicable as aids in the serial monitoring of patients with specific diseases such as heart failure. The BV estimates are only applicable in subjects who abstained from oral intake due to the rapid and marked effects of fluids on copeptin physiology.

Analytical performance specifications based on biological variation data - considerations, strengths and limitations.

Analytical performance specifications (APS) are typically established through one of three models: (i) outcome studies, (ii) biological variation (BV), or (iii) state-of-the-art. Presently, The APS can, for most measurands that have a stable concentration, be based on BV. BV based APS, defined for imprecision, bias, total allowable error and allowable measurement uncertainty, are applied to many different processes in the laboratory. When calculating APS, it is important to consider the different APS formulae, for what setting they are to be applied and if they are suitable for the intended purpose. In this opinion paper, we elucidate the background, limitations, strengths, and potential intended applications of the different BV based APS formulas. When using BV data to set APS, it is important to consider that all formulae are contingent on accurate and relevant BV estimates. During the last decade, efficient procedures have been established to obtain reliable BV estimates that are presented in the EFLM biological variation database. The database publishes detailed BV data for numerous measurands, global BV estimates derived from meta-analysis of quality-assured studies of similar study design and automatic calculation of BV based APS.

The impact of physiological variations on personalized reference intervals and decision limits: an in-depth analysis.

The interpretation of laboratory data is a comparative procedure. Physicians typically need reference values to compare patients' laboratory data for clinical decisions. Therefore, establishing reliable reference data is essential for accurate diagnosis and patient monitoring. Human metabolism is a dynamic process. Various types of systematic and random fluctuations in the concentration/activity of biomolecules are observed in response to internal and external factors. In the human body, several biomolecules are under the influence of physiological rhythms and are therefore subject to ultradian, circadian and infradian fluctuations. In addition, most biomolecules are also characterized by random biological variations, which are referred to as biological fluctuations between subjects and within subjects/individuals. In routine practice, reference intervals based on population data are used, which by nature are not designed to capture physiological rhythms and random biological variations. To ensure safe and appropriate interpretation of patient laboratory data, reference intervals should be personalized and estimated using individual data in accordance with systematic and random variations. In this opinion paper, we outline (i) the main variations that contribute to the generation of personalized reference intervals (prRIs), (ii) the theoretical background of prRIs and (iii) propose new methods on how to harmonize prRIs with the systematic and random variations observed in metabolic activity, based on individuals' demography.

The European biological variation study (EuBIVAS): Biological variation data for testosterone, follicle stimulating hormone, prolactin, luteinizing hormone and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in men.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of biological variation (BV) of hormones is essential for interpretation of laboratory tests and for diagnostics of endocrinological and reproductive diseases. There is a lack of robust BV data for many hormones in men. METHODS: We used serum samples collected weekly over 10 weeks from the European Biological Variation Study (EuBIVAS) to determine BV of testosterone, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), prolactin, luteinizing hormone (LH) and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) in 38 men. We derived within-subject (CVI) and between-subject (CVG) BV estimates by CV-ANOVA after trend, outlier, and homogeneity analysis and calculated reference change values, index of individuality (II), and analytical performance specifications. RESULTS: The CVI estimates were 10 % for testosterone, 8 % for FSH, 13 % for prolactin, 22 % for LH, and 9 % for DHEA-S, respectively. The IIs ranged between 0.14 for FSH to 0.66 for LH, indicating high individuality. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we have used samples from the highly powered EuBIVAS study to derive BV estimates for testosterone, FSH, prolactin, LH and DHEA-S in men. Our data confirm previously published BV estimates of testosterone, FSH and LH. For prolactin and DHEA-S BV data for men are reported for the first time.

Biological variation of inflammatory and iron metabolism markers in high-endurance recreational athletes; are these markers useful for athlete monitoring?

OBJECTIVES: To deliver biological variation (BV) data for serum hepcidin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), erythropoietin (EPO) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in a population of well-characterized high-endurance athletes, and to evaluate the potential influence of exercise and health-related factors on the BV. METHODS: Thirty triathletes (15 females) were sampled monthly (11 months). All samples were analyzed in duplicate and BV estimates were delivered by Bayesian and ANOVA methods. A linear mixed model was applied to study the effect of factors related to exercise, health, and sampling intervals on the BV estimates. RESULTS: Within-subject BV estimates (CVI) were for hepcidin 51.9 % (95 % credibility interval 46.9-58.1), sTfR 10.3 % (8.8-12) and EPO 27.3 % (24.8-30.3). The mean concentrations were significantly different between sex, but CVI estimates were similar and not influenced by exercise, health-related factors, or sampling intervals. The data were homogeneously distributed for EPO but not for hepcidin or sTfR. IL-6 results were mostly below the limit of detection. Factors related to exercise, health, and sampling intervals did not influence the BV estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides, for the first time, BV data for EPO, derived from a cohort of well-characterized endurance athletes and indicates that EPO is a good candidate for athlete follow-up. The application of the Bayesian method to deliver BV data illustrates that for hepcidin and sTfR, BV data are heterogeneously distributed and using a mean BV estimate may not be appropriate when using BV data for laboratory and clinical applications.

Sex-related differences in within-subject biological variation estimates for 22 essential and non-essential amino acids.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of serum amino acid (AA) concentrations is important in particular for the diagnosis and monitoring of inborn errors of AA metabolism. To ensure optimal clinical interpretation of AAs, reliable biological variation (BV) data are essential. In the present study, we derived BV data for 22 non-essential, conditionally essential, and essential AAs and assessed differences in BV of AAs related to sex. METHODS: Morning blood samples were drawn from 66 subjects (31 males and 35 females) once a week for 10 consecutive weeks. All samples were analyzed in duplicate using liquid chromatography-tandem mass-spectrometry. The data were assessed for outliers, trends, normality and variance homogeneity analysis prior to estimating within-subject (CVI) and between-subject (CVG) BV. RESULTS: CVI estimates ranged from 9.0 % for histidine (male) to 33.0 % for taurine (male). CVI estimates in males and females were significantly different for all AAs except for aspartic acid, citrulline and phenylalanine, in most cases higher in females than in males. Apart from for arginine, CVG estimates in males and females were similar. CONCLUSIONS: In this highly powered BV study, we provide updated BV estimates for 22 AAs and demonstrate that for most AAs, CVI estimates differ between males and females, with implications for interpretation and use of AAs in clinical practice.

Personalized laboratory medicine in the digital health era: recent developments and future challenges.

Interpretation of laboratory data is a comparative procedure and requires reliable reference data, which are mostly derived from population data but used for individuals in conventional laboratory medicine. Using population data as a "reference" for individuals has generated several problems related to diagnosing, monitoring, and treating single individuals. This issue can be resolved by using data from individuals' repeated samples, as their personal reference, thus needing that laboratory data be personalized. The modern laboratory information system (LIS) can store the results of repeated measurements from millions of individuals. These data can then be analyzed to generate a variety of personalized reference data sets for numerous comparisons. In this manuscript, we redefine the term "personalized laboratory medicine" as the practices based on individual-specific samples and data. These reflect their unique biological characteristics, encompassing omics data, clinical chemistry, endocrinology, hematology, coagulation, and within-person biological variation of all laboratory data. It also includes information about individuals' health behavior, chronotypes, and all statistical algorithms used to make precise decisions. This approach facilitates more accurate diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of diseases for each individual. Furthermore, we explore recent advancements and future challenges of personalized laboratory medicine in the context of the digital health era.

Biological variation estimates of Alzheimer's disease plasma biomarkers in healthy individuals.

INTRODUCTION: Blood biomarkers have proven useful in Alzheimer's disease (AD) research. However, little is known about their biological variation (BV), which improves the interpretation of individual-level data. METHODS: We measured plasma amyloid beta (Aß42, Aß40), phosphorylated tau (p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tau231), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and neurofilament light chain (NfL) in plasma samples collected weekly over 10 weeks from 20 participants aged 40 to 60 years from the European Biological Variation Study. We estimated within- (CVI ) and between-subject (CVG ) BV, analytical variation, and reference change values (RCV). RESULTS: Biomarkers presented considerable variability in CVI and CVG . Aß42/Aß40 had the lowest CVI (≈ 3%) and p-tau181 the highest (≈ 16%), while others ranged from 6% to 10%. Most RCVs ranged from 20% to 30% (decrease) and 25% to 40% (increase). DISCUSSION: BV estimates for AD plasma biomarkers can potentially refine their clinical and research interpretation. RCVs might be useful for detecting significant changes between serial measurements when monitoring early disease progression or interventions. Highlights Plasma amyloid beta (Aß42/Aß40) presents the lowest between- and within-subject biological variation, but also changes the least in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients versus controls. Plasma phosphorylated tau variants significantly vary in their within-subject biological variation, but their substantial fold-changes in AD likely limits the impact of their variability. Plasma neurofilament light chain and glial fibrillary acidic protein demonstrate high between-subject variation, the impact of which will depend on clinical context. Reference change values can potentially be useful in monitoring early disease progression and the safety/efficacy of interventions on an individual level. Serial sampling revealed that unexpectedly high values in heathy individuals can be observed, which urges caution when interpreting AD plasma biomarkers based on a single test result.

Biological variation estimates for serum neurofilament light chain in healthy subjects.

OBJECTIVES: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is an emerging biomarker of neurodegeneration disorders. Knowledge of the biological variation (BV) can facilitate proper interpretation between serial measurements. Here BV estimates for serum NfL (sNfL) are provided. METHODS: Serum samples were collected weekly from 24 apparently healthy subjects for 10 consecutive weeks and analyzed in duplicate using the Siemens Healthineers sNfL assay on the Atellica® IM Analyzer. Outlier detection, variance homogeneity analyses, and trend analysis were performed followed by CV-ANOVA to determine BV and analytical variation (CVA) estimates with 95%CI and the associated reference change values (RCV) and analytical performance specifications (APS). RESULTS: Despite observed differences in sNfL concentrations between males and females, BV estimates remained consistent across genders. Both within-subject BV (CVI) for males (10.7%, 95%CI; 9.2-12.6) and females (9.1%, 95%CI; 7.8-10.9) and between-subject BV (CVG) for males (26.1%, 95%CI; 18.0-45.6) and females (30.2%, 95%CI; 20.9-53.5) were comparable. An index of individuality value of 0.33 highlights significant individuality, indicating the potential efficacy of personalized reference intervals in patient monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: The established BV estimates for sNfL underscore its potential as a valuable biomarker for monitoring neurodegenerative diseases, offering a foundation for improved decision-making in clinical settings.

Personalized and Population-Based Reference Intervals for 48 Common Clinical Chemistry and Hematology Measurands: A Comparative Study.

BACKGROUND: Personalized reference intervals (prRIs) have the potential to improve individual patient follow-up as compared to population-based reference intervals (popRI). In this study, we estimated popRI and prRIs for 48 clinical chemistry and hematology measurands using samples from the same reference individuals and explored the effect of using group-based and individually based biological variation (BV) estimates to derive prRIs. METHODS: 143 individuals (median age 28 years) were included in the study and had fasting blood samples collected once. From this population, 41 randomly selected subjects had samples collected weekly for 5 weeks. PopRIs were estimated according to Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute EP28 and within-subject BV (CVI) were estimated by CV-ANOVA. Data were assessed for trends and outliers prior to calculation of individual prRIs, based on estimates of (a) within-person BV (CVP), (b) CVI derived in this study, and (c) publically available CVI estimates. RESULTS: For most measurands, the individual prRI ranges were smaller than the popRI range, but overall about half the study participants had a prRI wider than the popRI for 5 or more out of 48 measurands. The dispersion of prRIs based on CVP was wider than that of prRIs based on CVI. CONCLUSION: The prRIs derived in our study varied significantly between different individuals, especially if based on CVP. Our results highlight the limitations of popRIs in interpreting test results of individual patients. If sufficient data from a steady-state situation are available, using prRI based on CVP estimates will provide a RI most specific for an individual patient.

Physiological Rhythms and Biological Variation of Biomolecules: The Road to Personalized Laboratory Medicine.

The concentration of biomolecules in living systems shows numerous systematic and random variations. Systematic variations can be classified based on the frequency of variations as ultradian (<24 h), circadian (approximately 24 h), and infradian (>24 h), which are partly predictable. Random biological variations are known as between-subject biological variations that are the variations among the set points of an analyte from different individuals and within-subject biological variation, which is the variation of the analyte around individuals' set points. The random biological variation cannot be predicted but can be estimated using appropriate measurement and statistical procedures. Physiological rhythms and random biological variation of the analytes could be considered the essential elements of predictive, preventive, and particularly personalized laboratory medicine. This systematic review aims to summarize research that have been done about the types of physiological rhythms, biological variations, and their effects on laboratory tests. We have searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases for biological variation and physiological rhythm articles in English without time restrictions with the terms "Biological variation, Within-subject biological variation, Between-subject biological variation, Physiological rhythms, Ultradian rhythms, Circadian rhythm, Infradian rhythms". It was concluded that, for effective management of predicting, preventing, and personalizing medicine, which is based on the safe and valid interpretation of patients' laboratory test results, both physiological rhythms and biological variation of the measurands should be considered simultaneously.

Long-Term Within- and Between-Subject Biological Variation Data of Hematological Parameters in Recreational Endurance Athletes.

BACKGROUND: Hematological parameters have many applications in athletes, from monitoring health to uncovering blood doping. This study aimed to deliver biological variation (BV) estimates for 9 hematological parameters by a Biological Variation Data Critical Appraisal Checklist (BIVAC) design in a population of recreational endurance athletes and to assess the effect of self-reported exercise and health-related variables on BV. METHODS: Samples were drawn from 30 triathletes monthly for 11 months and measured in duplicate for hematological measurands on an Advia 2120 analyzer (Siemens Healthineers). After outlier and homogeneity analysis, within-subject (CVI) and between-subject (CVG) BV estimates were delivered (CV-ANOVA and log-ANOVA, respectively) and a linear mixed model was applied to analyze the effect of exercise and other related variables on the BV estimates. RESULTS: CVI estimates ranged from 1.3% (95%CI, 1.2-1.4) for mean corpuscular volume to 23.8% (95%CI, 21.6-26.3) for reticulocytes. Sex differences were observed for platelets and OFF-score. The CVI estimates were higher than those reported for the general population based on meta-analysis of eligible studies in the European Biological Variation Database, but 95%CI overlapped, except for reticulocytes, 23.9% (95%CI, 21.6-26.5) and 9.7% (95%CI, 6.4-11.0), respectively. Factors related to exercise and athletes' state of health did not appear to influence the BV estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first BIVAC-compliant study delivering BV estimates that can be applied to athlete populations performing high-level aerobic exercise. CVI estimates of most parameters were similar to the general population and were not influenced by exercise or athletes' state of health.

Performance specifications for sodium should not be based on biological variation.

When increasing the quality in clinical laboratories by decreasing measurement uncertainty, reliable methods are needed not only to quantify the performance of measuring systems, but also to set goals for the performance. Sigma metrics used in medical laboratories for documenting and expressing levels of performance, are evidently totally dependent on the "total permissible error" used in the formulas. Although the conventional biological variation (BV) based model for calculation of the permissible (or allowable) total error is commonly used, it has been shown to be flawed. Alternative methods are proposed, mainly also based on the within-subject BV. Measurement uncertainty models might offer an alternative to total error models. Defining the limits for analytical quality still poses a challenge in both models. The aim of the present paper is to critically discuss current methods for establishing performance specifications by using the measurement of sodium concentrations in plasma or serum. Sodium can be measured with high accuracy but fails by far to meet conventional performance specifications based on BV. Since the use of sodium concentrations is well established for supporting clinical care, we question the concept that quality criteria for sodium and similar analytes that are under strict homeostatic control are best set by biology.

Biological variation: recent development and future challenges.

Biological variation (BV) data have many applications in laboratory medicine. However, these depend on the availability of relevant and robust BV data fit for purpose. BV data can be obtained through different study designs, both by experimental studies and studies utilizing previously analysed routine results derived from laboratory databases. The different BV applications include using BV data for setting analytical performance specifications, to calculate reference change values, to define the index of individuality and to establish personalized reference intervals. In this review, major achievements in the area of BV from last decade will be presented and discussed. These range from new models and approaches to derive BV data, the delivery of high-quality BV data by the highly powered European Biological Variation Study (EuBIVAS), the Biological Variation Data Critical Appraisal Checklist (BIVAC) and other standards for deriving and reporting BV data, the EFLM Biological Variation Database and new applications of BV data including personalized reference intervals and measurement uncertainty.

Bias, the unfinished symphony.

In laboratory medicine, mathematical equations are frequently used to calculate various parameters including bias, imprecision, measurement uncertainty, sigma metric (SM), creatinine clearance, LDL-cholesterol concentration, etc. Mathematical equations have strict limitations and cannot be used in all situations and are not open to manipulations. Recently, a paper "Bias estimation for Sigma metric calculation: Arithmetic mean versus quadratic mean" was published in Biochemia Medica. In the paper, the author criticized the approach of taking the arithmetic mean of the multiple biases to obtain a single bias and proposed a quadratic method to estimate the overall bias using external quality assurance services (EQAS) data for SM calculation. This approach does not fit the purpose and it should be noted that using the correct equation in calculations is as important as using the correct reagent in the measurement of the analytes, therefore before using an equation, its suitability should be checked and confirmed.

Melatonin in preservation solutions prevents ischemic injury in rat kidneys.

Transplantation is lifesaving and the most effective treatment for end-stage organ failure. The transplantation success depends on the functional preservation of organs prior to transplantation. Currently, the University of Wisconsin (UW) and histidine-tryptophan-ketoglutarate (HTK) are the most commonly used preservation solutions. Despite intensive efforts, the functional preservation of solid organs prior to transplantation is limited to hours. In this study, we modified the UW solution containing components from both the UW and HTK solutions and analyzed their tissue-protective effect against ischemic injury. The composition of the UW solution was changed by reducing hydroxyethyl starch concentration and adding Histidine/Histidine-HCl which is the main component of HTK solution. Additionally, the preservation solutions were supplemented with melatonin and glucosamine. The protective effects of the preservation solutions were assessed by biochemical and microscopical analysis at 2, 10, 24, and 72 h after preserving the rat kidneys with static cold storage. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity in preservation solutions was measured at 2, 10, 24, and 72. It was not detectable at 2 h of preservation in all groups and 10 h of preservation in modified UW+melatonin (mUW-m) and modified UW+glucosamine (mUW-g) groups. At the 72nd hour, the lowest LDH activity (0.91 IU/g (0.63-1.17)) was measured in the mUW-m group. In comparison to the UW group, histopathological damage score was low in modified UW (mUW), mUW-m, and mUW-g groups at 10, 24, and 72 hours. The mUW-m solution at low temperature was an effective and suitable solution to protect renal tissue for up to 72 h.

Measurement uncertainty for practical use.

Uncertainty is an inseparable part of all kinds of measurements performed in clinical laboratories. Accreditation standards including the ISO/IEC 17025:2017 and ISO 15189:2012 require that laboratories have routines for calculating the measurement uncertainty of reported results. Various guidelines such as CLSI EP29, Nordest 537, and ISO 20914:2019 have proposed methods for this purpose. However, due to the conceived complexity of the proposed calculation methods, these guidelines have not been generally and effectively applied in clinical laboratories. High workload and measurand heterogeneity favor a pragmatic utilitarian approach. The purpose of this paper is to describe such an approach, including its advantages and disadvantages. Measurement uncertainty should include the most influential factors affecting patients' test results. Since patients' samples for the same measurand can be analyzed in one laboratory or several laboratories using different measuring systems, the measurement uncertainty should be calculated using results obtained from analyzing the same internal quality control material if commutable or patients pooled/split samples.