A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014-2018.

The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 - 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.

Comparison of clinical tools for dengue diagnosis in a pediatric population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate and compare the ability of clinical tools for dengue diagnosis in a pediatric population. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated episodes of acute febrile syndrome identified during the follow-up of a population-based cohort of children and adolescents residing in a dengue endemic city. We estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) for dengue diagnosis of three clinical tools: the summation of manifestations of the WHO case definition, a predefined clinical scale and a logistic regression model obtained in this study. RESULTS: We compared 219 dengue cases (confirmed by laboratory) and 286 patients with other febrile illnesses. In a multiple model, variables independently associated with dengue included the duration of fever, sleepiness and exanthema. Rhinorrhea, cough and minimal leukocyte count were inversely associated with dengue. This model reached an accuracy of 84.2% (for a cut-off of >0.5, sensitivity: 79.5%, specificity: 87.9%, positive predictive value: 83.7%, negative predictive value: 84.6%). The AU-ROC of this model (89.8%) was significantly higher than that obtained with either the predefined scale (82.1%) or the WHO definition manifestations (77%). CONCLUSION: We validated a predefined scale and identified a multiple model suitable for the clinical diagnosis of dengue in the pediatric population.

Cross reactivity of commercial anti-dengue immunoassays in patients with acute Zika virus infection.

Several countries have local transmission of multiple arboviruses, in particular, dengue and Zika viruses, which have recently spread through many American countries. Cross reactivity among Flaviviruses is high and present a challenge for accurate identification of the infecting agent. Thus, we evaluated the level of cross reactivity of anti-dengue IgM/G Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) from three manufacturers against 122 serum samples obtained at two time-points from 61 patients with non-dengue confirmed Zika virus infection. All anti-dengue ELISAs cross reacted with serum from patients with acute Zika infection at some level and a worrisome number of seroconversion for dengue IgG and IgM was observed. These findings may impact the interpretation of currently standard criteria for dengue diagnosis in endemic regions.