RESUMO
Climate change has impacted biodiversity, affecting species and altering their geographical distribution. Besides understanding the impact in the species, it has been advocated that answering if different traits will be differently impacted could allow refined predictions of how climate change will jeopardize biodiversity. Our aim was to evaluate if climate change will potentially impact plant species differently, considering their traits. We evaluated 608 plant species that occur in the naturally open areas of ferruginous outcrops (namely, cangas) in the National Forest of Carajás (Eastern Amazon). Firstly, we estimated the effects of climate change on each species using species distribution modeling, and analyzed this impact in the set containing all species. Secondly, we classified plant species considering the following traits: (i) pollination syndromes (melittophily, phalaenophily, psychophily, cantharophily, entomophily, ornithophily, chiropterophily, anemophily); (ii) habit (tree, shrub, herb, liana, parasite); and (iii) the main habitat of occurrence (open areas and forests). Thirdly, we investigated if the effects of climate change could be significantly more intense considering all the different traits quoted. Our results showed that most plant species will potentially face reduction of suitable habitats under future climate and the scenarios showed that 42% of them may not find suitable areas in the cangas of Carajás. We found no significant difference within each analyzed trait, considering the potential impact of climate change. The most climatically suitable areas (i.e., areas with high probability of species occurrence in the future) are those in the southwest of the study area. These areas can be considered as priority areas for species protection against climate change.
RESUMO
Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production.
