Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Olive oil consumption is associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among Italian adults: prospective results from the Moli-sani Study and analysis of potential biological mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: Olive oil consumption has been reportedly associated with lower mortality rates, mostly from cardiovascular diseases, but its potential impact on cancer death remains controversial. Moreover, biological mechanisms possibly linking olive oil consumption to mortality outcomes remain unexplored. METHODS: We longitudinally analysed data on 22,892 men and women from the Moli-sani Study in Italy (follow-up 13.1 y), to examine the association of olive oil consumption with mortality. Dietary data were collected at baseline (2005-2010) through a 188-item FFQ, and olive oil consumption was standardised to a 10 g tablespoon (tbsp) size. Diet quality was assessed through a Mediterranean diet score. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, also including diet quality, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The potential mediating role of inflammatory, metabolic, cardiovascular and renal biomarkers on the association between olive oil intake and mortality was evaluated on the basis of change-in-estimate and associated p values. RESULTS: Multivariable HRs for all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and other cause mortality associated with high (>3 tbsp/d) versus low (≤1.5 tbsp/d) olive oil consumption were 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.77 (0.59-0.99), 0.75 (0.58-0.97) and 0.97 (0.73-1.29), respectively. Taken together, the investigated biomarkers attenuated the association of olive oil consumption with all-cause and cancer mortality by 21.2% and 13.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher olive oil consumption was associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates, independent of overall diet quality. Known risk factors for chronic diseases only in part mediated such associations suggesting that other biological pathways are potentially involved in this relationship.

Blood-based biological ageing and red cell distribution width are associated with prevalent Parkinson's disease: findings from a large Italian population cohort.

Background: Aging clocks tag the actual underlying age of an organism and its discrepancy with chronological age and have been reported to predict incident disease risk in the general population. However, the relationship with neurodegenerative risk and in particular with Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains unclear, with few discordant findings reporting associations with both incident and prevalent PD risk. Objective: To clarify this relationship, we computed a common aging clock based on blood markers and tested the resulting discrepancy with chronological age (ΔPhenoAge) for association with both incident and prevalent PD risk. Methods: In a large Italian population cohort - the Moli-sani study (N=23,437; age ≥ 35 years; 52% women) - we carried out both Cox Proportional Hazards regressions modelling ΔPhenoAge as exposure and incident PD as outcome, and linear models testing prevalent PD as exposure and ΔPhenoAge as outcome. All models were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, education level completed and other risk/protective factors previously associated with PD risk in the same cohort (prevalent dysthyroidism, hypertension, diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, exposure to paints, daily coffee intake and cigarette smoking). Results: No significant association between incident PD risk (209 cases, median (IQR) follow-up time 11.19 (2.03) years) and PhenoAging was observed (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.98 [0.71; 1.37]). However, a small but significant increase of ΔPhenoAge was observed in prevalent PD cases vs healthy subjects (ß (Standard Error) = 1.39 (0.70)). An analysis of each component biomarker of PhenoAge revealed a significant positive association of prevalent PD status with red cell distribution width (RDW; ß (SE) = 0.46 (0.18)). All the remaining markers did not show any significant evidence of association. Conclusion: The reported evidence highlights systemic effects of prevalent PD status on biological aging and red cell distribution width. Further cohort and functional studies may help shedding a light on the related pathways altered at the organism level in prevalent PD, like red cells variability, inflammatory and oxidative stress mechanisms.

Endogenous thrombin potential and time-dependent thrombin generation parameters are independent risk factors for mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Thrombin generation (TG) is used as a global test of coagulation and is an indicator of thrombosis and bleeding risk. Until now, data on the association of TG and mortality are inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association between TG and mortality in the prospective Moli-sani cohort (n = 21 920). METHODS: TG was measured using calibrated automated thrombinography using PPP-Reagent Low. Lag time (LT), endogenous thrombin potential (ETP), peak height, time-to-peak (TTP), and velocity index were quantified. The association of TG and mortality was studied by Cox regression and adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, smoking, contraceptives, and medical history (cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and cancer). RESULTS: LT and TTP were 4.1 ± 1.0 minutes and 6.6 ± 1.5 minutes, on average. The peak height was 364 ± 88 nM, velocity index was 163 ± 63 nM/min, and ETP was 1721 ± 411 nM·min. ETP was negatively associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.92; P < .001). Subjects in the lowest quintile of the ETP (ETPQ1) had a 1.3-fold higher mortality rate. Additionally, a high TTP/LT ratio was negatively associated with mortality (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89; P = .003). Individuals in quintile 1 of the TTP/LT ratio had a 1.4-fold higher mortality rate compared with the remainder of the cohort. Subjects that were both in ETPQ1 and TTP/LTQ1 had a 1.8-fold higher mortality rate, regardless of whether they reported history of cardiovascular disease at baseline (HR, 1.61 [CI: 1.07-2.42]) or not (HR, 1.89 [CI: 1.51-2.36]). CONCLUSION: Low ETP and TTP/LT ratios are independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in the general population.

Long-Term Risk of Arterial Thrombosis After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: MUCH-Italy.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients surviving an acute intracerebral hemorrhage who are at a long-term risk of arterial thrombosis is a poorly defined, crucial issue for clinicians. METHODS: In the setting of the MUCH-Italy (Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy) prospective observational cohort, we enrolled and followed up consecutive 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage survivors to assess the long-term incidence of arterial thrombotic events, to assess the impact of clinical and radiological variables on the risk of these events, and to develop a tool for estimating such a risk at the individual level. Primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or other arterial thrombotic events. A point-scoring system was generated by the ß-coefficients of the variables independently associated with the long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, and the predictive MUCH score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 1729 patients (median follow-up time, 43 months [25th to 75th percentile, 69.0]) qualified for inclusion. Arterial thrombotic events occurred in 169 (9.7%) patients. Male sex, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, and personal history of coronary artery disease were associated with increased long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, whereas the use of statins and antithrombotic medications after the acute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with a reduced risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MUCH score predictive validity was 0.716 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for the 0- to 1-year score, 0.672 (95% CI, 0.58-0.73) for the 0- to 5-year score, and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the 0- to 10-year score. C statistic for the prediction of events that occur from 0 to 10 years was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage survivors are at high long-term risk of arterial thrombosis. The MUCH score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Breakfast quality and its sociodemographic and psychosocial correlates among Italian children, adolescents, and adults from the Italian Nutrition & HEalth Survey (INHES) study.

BACKGROUND: Breakfast quality, together with regularity of breakfast, has been suggested to be associated with cardiometabolic health advantages. We aimed to evaluate the quality of breakfast and its socioeconomic and psychosocial correlates in a large sample of the Italian population. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses on 7,673 adult and 505 children/adolescent regular breakfast eaters from the Italian Nutrition & Health Survey (INHES; 2010-2013). Dietary data were collected through a single 24-h dietary recall. Breakfast quality was assessed through the Breakfast Quality Index (BQI) combining intake of ten food groups, energy, and nutrients of public health concern, and potentially ranging from 0 to 10. The association of sociodemographic and psychosocial factors with BQI were analyzed by multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. RESULTS: The average BQI was 4.65 (SD ± 1.13) and 4.97 (SD ± 1.00) in adults and children/adolescents, respectively. Amongst adults, older age (ß = 0.19; 95%CI 0.06 to 0.31 for > 65 vs. 20-40 years) and having a high educational level (ß = 0.13; 0.03 to 0.23; for postsecondary vs. up to elementary) were independent predictors of better breakfast quality, while men reported lower BQI (ß = -0.08; -0.14 to -0.02 vs. women). Perceived stress levels at home and work and financial stress were inversely associated with BQI. Children/adolescents living in Central and Southern Italian regions had lower BQI compared to residents in Northern Italy (ß = -0.55; -0.91 to -0.19 and ß = -0.24; -0.47 to -0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In adults, breakfast quality was associated with age, sex, and educational level. Perceived stress levels were inversely associated with the quality of breakfast. In children/adolescents, a north-south gradient in breakfast quality was observed.

High alpha-2-macroglobulin levels are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease events: A Moli-sani cohort study.

BACKGROUND: α2-macroglobulin (α2M) is a versatile endopeptidase inhibitor that plays a role in cell growth, inflammation and coagulation. α2M is an inhibitor of key coagulation enzyme thrombin. Hypercoagulability due to an excess of thrombin production can cause thrombotic events. Therefore, we investigated the association of α2M levels and cardiovascular events in a subset of the general Italian population. METHODS: We determined α2M levels in the baseline samples of a prospective cohort (n = 19,688; age: 55 ± 12 years; 47.8 % men) of the Moli-sani study and investigated the association with the cardiovascular events (n = 432, 2.2 %) in the median follow-up period of 4.3 years. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and adjusted for a large panel of confounding factors. RESULTS: α2M levels above the 90th percentile were significantly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events after full adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, BMI, oral contraceptive use, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and history of cancer (HR: 1.36; CI: 1.06-1.74). Moreover, high α2M was associated with coronary heart disease (CHD; HR: 1.47; CI: 1.12-1.91), but not stroke. Stratification for CVD at baseline showed that high α2M levels are associated with CHD events in subjects without CVD at baseline (HR: 1.40; CI: 1.00-1.95) and subjects with CVD at baseline (HR: 1.58; CI: 1.02-2.44). CONCLUSION: We show in a prospective cohort that high levels of α2M could be a risk factor for cardiovascular events, especially coronary heart disease events.

Identifying brain tumor patients' subtypes based on pre-diagnostic history and clinical characteristics: a pilot hierarchical clustering and association analysis.

Introduction: Central nervous system (CNS) tumors are severe health conditions with increasing incidence in the last years. Different biological, environmental and clinical factors are thought to have an important role in their epidemiology, which however remains unclear. Objective: The aim of this pilot study was to identify CNS tumor patients' subtypes based on this information and to test associations with tumor malignancy. Methods: 90 patients with suspected diagnosis of CNS tumor were recruited by the Neurosurgery Unit of IRCCS Neuromed. Patients underwent anamnestic and clinical assessment, to ascertain known or suspected risk factors including lifestyle, socioeconomic, clinical and psychometric characteristics. We applied a hierarchical clustering analysis to these exposures to identify potential groups of patients with a similar risk pattern and tested whether these clusters associated with brain tumor malignancy. Results: Out of 67 patients with a confirmed CNS tumor diagnosis, we identified 28 non-malignant and 39 malignant tumor cases. These subtypes showed significant differences in terms of gender (with men more frequently presenting a diagnosis of cancer; p = 6.0 ×10-3) and yearly household income (with non-malignant tumor patients more frequently earning ≥25k Euros/year; p = 3.4×10-3). Cluster analysis revealed the presence of two clusters of patients: one (N=41) with more professionally active, educated, wealthier and healthier patients, and the other one with mostly retired and less healthy men, with a higher frequency of smokers, personal history of cardiovascular disease and cancer familiarity, a mostly sedentary lifestyle and generally lower income, education and cognitive performance. The former cluster showed a protective association with the malignancy of the disease, with a 74 (14-93) % reduction in the prevalent risk of CNS malignant tumors, compared to the other cluster (p=0.026). Discussion: These preliminary data suggest that patients' profiling through unsupervised machine learning approaches may somehow help predicting the risk of being affected by a malignant form. If confirmed by further analyses in larger independent cohorts, these findings may be useful to create potential intelligent ranking systems for treatment priority, overcoming the lack of histopathological information and molecular diagnosis of the tumor, which are typically not available until the time of surgery.

Pro-Vegetarian Food Patterns and Cancer Risk among Italians from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort.

Besides the Mediterranean diet, there is a paucity of studies examining plant-based diets in relation to cancer outcomes in Mediterranean populations. We analyzed 22,081 apparently cancer-free participants (mean age 55 ± 12 year) from the Moli-sani study (enrollment period 2005-2010; Italy). A general pro-vegetarian food pattern was computed by assigning positive or negative scores to plant- or animal-derived foods, respectively from a 188-item FFQ. A priori healthful or unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns distinguished between healthy plant foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables) and less-healthy plant foods (e.g., fruit juices, refined grains). Cancer incidence was defined as the earliest diagnosis of cancer from hospital discharge records over a median follow-up of 12.9 years. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, a general pro-vegetarian food pattern was associated with a lower rate of cancer incidence (HR = 0.85; 95%CI 0.75-0.97 for Q5 vs. Q1); no association was observed between the healthful or unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns and overall cancer incidence. A healthful pro-vegetarian pattern, however, was inversely associated with digestive cancer (HR = 0.76; 95%CI 0.58-0.99 for Q5 vs. Q1), while the unhealthful pro-vegetarian pattern was directly linked to respiratory cancer (HR = 1.68; 95%CI 1.06-2.68 for Q5 vs. Q1). Our findings in a Mediterranean population support the hypothesis that some, but not all pro-vegetarian diets, might prevent some cancers.

The Moli-sani risk score, a new algorithm for measuring the global impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular (CV) disease is preventable through interventions targeting modifiable factors. Most algorithms based on modifiable CV risk factors (CV-rf) have been developed in US populations and do not account for the role of diet. We aimed to assess an algorithm based on modifiable CV-rf including diet, using data from an Italian population. METHODS: To derive the Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS), we used data on 16,656 men and women (age ≥ 35 y) from the population of the Moli-sani Study. The Risk-and-Prevention-Study, Italy (N = 8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's-Simple-7 score was used as benchmark. The MRS targeted at fatal or non-fatal CV events and included 9 common modifiable CV-rf. RESULTS: After 8.1 years (median) of follow-up, 816 events occurred in the derivation cohort. The MRS was calculated as a weighted sum of its 9 components, with weights reflecting the strength of the association. In comparison with individuals in the first, those in the fourth quartile of the score had hazard ratio (HR) for CV events equal to 3.18 (95%CI: 2.54-3.97). One more point in the score was associated with 7% (6%-8%) and 4% (3%-5%) higher hazard of events in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The MRS performed better than the Life's Simple-7 for discrimination. CONCLUSION: We propose the Moli-sani Risk Score, a validated, performing algorithm able to measure the combined impact that modifiable CV-rf have on CV risk. The score can be used to design preventive interventions, quantify the effectiveness of interventions, and compare different preventive strategies.

Ultraprocessed food consumption is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in participants with type 2 diabetes independent of diet quality: a prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional strategies for prevention and management of type 2 diabetes traditionally emphasize dietary patterns reflecting nutrient goals, but the health implications of ultraprocessed food (UPF) for patients with type 2 diabetes remain unknown. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the association of UPF intake with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among participants with type 2 diabetes from the Moli-sani Study in Italy (enrollment 2005-2010). METHODS: This was a prospective observational cohort study on 1065 individuals with type 2 diabetes at baseline, followed up for 11.6 y (median). Food intake was assessed by a 188-item food-frequency questionnaire. UPF was defined following the Nova classification and calculated as the ratio (weight ratio; %) between UPF (g/d) and total food eaten (g/d). Overall diet quality was assessed through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality. RESULTS: The average UPF consumption was 7.4% (±5.0%). In multivariable-adjusted Cox analyses, greater UPF intake (Q4, ≥10.5% and ≥9% of total food eaten for females and males, respectively), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF <4.7% and <3.7% for females and males, respectively), was associated with higher hazards of both all-cause (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.25, 2.33) and CVD mortality (HR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.59, 4.40); inclusion of the MDS into the model did not substantially alter the magnitude of these associations (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.25 and HR: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.53, 4.24 for all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively). A linear dose-response relationship of UPF intake with both all-cause and CVD mortality was also observed. CONCLUSIONS: In participants with type 2 diabetes at study entry, higher UPF consumption was associated with reduced survival and higher CVD mortality rate, independent of diet quality. Besides prioritizing the adoption of a diet based on nutritional requirements, dietary guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes should also recommend limiting UPF.

Risk and protective factors in Parkinson's disease: a simultaneous and prospective study with classical statistical and novel machine learning models.

BACKGROUND: Several environmental/lifestyle factors have been individually investigated in previous Parkinson's disease (PD) studies with controversial results. No study has prospectively and simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors of PD using both classical statistical and novel machine learning analyses. The latter may reveal more complex associations and new factors that are undetected by merely linear models. To fill this gap, we simultaneously investigated potential risk/protective factors involved in PD in a large prospective population study using both approaches. METHODS: Participants in the Moli-sani study were enrolled between 2005 and 2010 and followed up until December 2018. Incident PD cases were identified by individual-level record linkage to regional hospital discharge forms, the Italian death registry, and the regional prescription register. Exposure to potential risk/protective factors was assessed at baseline. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) regression models and survival random forests (SRF) were built to identify the most influential factors. RESULTS: We identified 213 incident PD cases out of 23,901 subjects. Cox PH models revealed that age, sex, dysthyroidism and diabetes were associated with an increased risk of PD. Both hyper and hypothyroidism were independently associated with PD risk. SRF showed that age was the most influential factor in PD risk, followed by coffee intake, daily physical activity, and hypertension. CONCLUSION: This study sheds light on the role of dysthyroidism, diabetes and hypertension in PD onset, characterized to date by an uncertain relationship with PD, and also confirms the relevance of most factors (age, sex, coffee intake, daily physical activity) reportedly shown be associated with PD. Further methodological developments in SRF models will allow to untangle the nature of the potential non-linear relationships identified.

Habitual adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a longitudinal analysis.

Evidence on habitual Mediterranean diet (MD) and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 is limited. 1,520 participants from the Moli-sani Study (2017-2020) were tested during January-September 2021 and adherence to MD was ascertained through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were determined through serology, and previous clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 disease was self-reported. Results were presented as odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The MDS was not associated with the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR= 0.94; 95% CI: 0.83-1.06) and COVID-19 (OR= 0.82; 95% CI: 0.62-1.10) diagnosis. High consumption of cereals was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.00; for each 25 g/d increase). Likelihood of having being diagnosed with COVID-19 disease decreased in association with increasing olive oil intake (OR= 0.10; 95% CI: 0.01-0.79; for each additional 10 g/d), moderate alcohol consumption (OR= 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04-0.82) and higher intakes of fruits and nuts (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.99). Our findings emphasise the adoption and maintenance of a balanced MD as a key strategy to reduce the risk of future SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19.

Drinking alcohol in moderation is associated with lower rate of all-cause mortality in individuals with higher rather than lower educational level: findings from the MORGAM project.

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and alcohol-related diseases has been widely explored. Less is known, however, on whether the association of moderate drinking with all-cause mortality is modified by educational level (EL). Using harmonized data from 16 cohorts in the MORGAM Project (N = 142,066) the association of pattern of alcohol intake with hazard of all-cause mortality across EL (lower = primary-school; middle = secondary-school; higher = university/college degree) was assessed using multivariable Cox-regression and spline curves. A total of 16,695 deaths occurred in 11.8 years (median). In comparison with life-long abstainers, participants drinking 0.1-10 g/d of ethanol had 13% (HR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.74-1.02), 11% (HR = 0.89; 0.84-0.95) and 5% (HR = 0.95; 0.89-1.02) lower rate of death in higher, middle and lower EL, respectively. Conversely, drinkers > 20 g/d had 1% (HR = 1.01; 0.82-1.25), 10% (HR = 1.10; 1.02-1.19) and 17% (HR = 1.17; 1.09-1.26) higher rate of death. The association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality was nonlinear, with a different J-shape by EL levels. It was consistent across both sexes and in various approaches of measuring alcohol consumption, including combining quantity and frequency and it was more evident when the beverage of preference was wine. We observed that drinking in moderation (≤ 10 g/d) is associated with lower mortality rate more evidently in individuals with higher EL than in people with lower EL, while heavy drinking is associated with higher mortality rate more evidently in individuals with lower EL than in people with higher EL, suggesting that advice on reducing alcohol intake should especially target individuals of low EL.

Association between BMI, RFM and mortality and potential mediators: Prospective findings from the Moli-sani study.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) is the most frequently used adiposity measure, yet it is unable to differentiate fat mass from lean mass. Relative fat mass (RFM) has been proposed as an alternative. This paper aims to study RFM and BMI association with mortality in a general Italian population and potential mediators of such association. METHODS: 20,587 individuals from the Moli-sani cohort were analysed (mean age = 54 ± 11, women = 52%, median follow up = 11.2 years, interquartile range = 1.96 years). Cox regressions were used to assess BMI, RFM, and their interactive association with mortality. Dose-response relationships were computed with spline regression, mediation analysis was performed. All analyses were separated for men and women. RESULTS: Men and women with BMI > 35 kg/m2 and men in the 4th quartile of RFM showed an independent association with mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.30-2.26 BMI in men, HR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01-1.85 BMI in women, HR = 1.37 CI 95% = 1.11-1.68 RFM in men), that was lost once adjusted for potential mediators. Cubic splines showed a U-shaped association for BMI in men and women, and for RFM in men. Mediation analysis showed that 46.5% of the association of BMI with mortality in men was mediated by glucose, C reactive protein, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and cystatin C; 82.9% of the association of BMI in women was mediated by HOMA index, cystatin C and FEV1; lastly, 55% of RFM association with mortality was mediated by glucose, FEV1 and cystatin C. Regression models including BMI and RFM showed that RFM drives most of the risk in men, but is not predictive in women. CONCLUSIONS: The association between anthropometric measures and mortality was U shaped and it was largely dependent on sex. Associations were mediated by glucose metabolism, renal and lung function. Public health interventions should mainly focus on people with severe obesity or impaired metabolic, renal, or respiratory function.

Biomarker-based prediction of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: The role of biomarkers in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk individuals is not well established. We aimed to investigate benefits of adding biomarkers to cardiovascular risk assessment in individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used individual-level data of 95 292 individuals of the European population harmonized in the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment across Europe consortium and investigated the prognostic ability of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Cox-regression models were used to determine adjusted hazard ratios of diabetes and log-transformed biomarkers for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Models were compared using the likelihood ratio test. Stratification by specific biomarker cut-offs was performed for crude time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. Overall, 6090 (6.4%) individuals had diabetes at baseline, median follow-up was 9.9 years. Adjusting for classical risk factors and biomarkers, diabetes [HR 2.11 (95% CI 1.92, 2.32)], and all biomarkers (HR per interquartile range hs-cTnI 1.08 [95% CI 1.04, 1.12]; NT-proBNP 1.44 [95% CI 1.37, 1.53]; hs-CRP 1.27 [95% CI 1.21, 1.33]) were independently associated with cardiovascular events. Specific cut-offs for each biomarker identified a high-risk group of individuals with diabetes losing a median of 15.5 years of life compared to diabetics without elevated biomarkers. Addition of biomarkers to the Cox-model significantly improved the prediction of outcomes (likelihood ratio test for nested models P < 0.001), accompanied by an increase in the c-index (increase to 0.81). CONCLUSION: Biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with and without diabetes and facilitate the identification of individuals with diabetes at highest risk for cardiovascular events.

In this work, the role of cardiac biomarkers measured from blood to predict cardiovascular events and death is tested in individuals of the general population and particularly in those with known diabetes. The work is based on a cooperation of different population studies across Europe and includes more than 90 000 individuals, with more than 6000 having diabetes. We could demonstrate that the determination of three cardiac biomarkers helps to identify individuals at highest risk for cardiovascular events (e.g. myocardial infarction or stroke) and death, despite accounting for known cardiovascular risk factors in these individuals. Therefore, these biomarkers should be considered for routine risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases and could improve the early identification of high-risk individuals, consequently leading to an earlier initiation of preventive therapies.

Association between Late-Eating Pattern and Higher Consumption of Ultra-Processed Food among Italian Adults: Findings from the INHES Study.

Late eating is reportedly associated with adverse metabolic health, possibly through poor diet quality. We tested the hypothesis that meal timing could also be linked to food processing, an independent predictor of health outcomes. We analysed data on 8688 Italians (aged > 19years) from the Italian Nutrition & HEalth Survey (INHES) established in 2010-2013 throughout Italy. Dietary data were collected through a single 24 h dietary recall, and the NOVA classification was used to categorize foods according to increasing levels of processing: (1) minimally processed foods (e.g., fruits); (2) culinary ingredients (e.g., butter); (3) processed foods (e.g., canned fish); (4) ultra-processed foods (UPFs; e.g., carbonated drinks, processed meat). We then calculated the proportion (%) of each NOVA group on the total weight of food eaten (g/d) by creating a weight ratio. Subjects were classified as early or late eaters based on the population's median timing for breakfast, lunch and dinner. In multivariable-adjusted regression models, late eaters reported a lower intake of minimally processed food (ß = -1.23; 95% CI -1.75 to -0.71), a higher intake of UPF (ß = 0.93; 0.60 to 1.25) and reduced adherence to a Mediterranean Diet (ß = -0.07; -0.12 to -0.03) as compared to early eaters. Future studies are warranted to examine whether increased UPF consumption may underpin the associations of late eating with adverse metabolic health reported in prior cohorts.

Association between the Inflammatory Potential of the Diet and Biological Aging: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 4510 Adults from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort.

Chronological age (CA) may not accurately reflect the health status of an individual. Rather, biological age (BA) or hypothetical underlying "functional" age has been proposed as a relevant indicator of healthy aging. Observational studies have found that decelerated biological aging or Δage (BA-CA) is associated with a lower risk of disease and mortality. In general, CA is associated with low-grade inflammation, a condition linked to the risk of the incidence of disease and overall cause-specific mortality, and is modulated by diet. To address the hypothesis that diet-related inflammation is associated with Δage, a cross-sectional analysis of data from a sub-cohort from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) was performed. The inflammatory potential of the diet was measured using the Energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DIITM) and a novel literature-based dietary inflammation score (DIS). A deep neural network approach based on circulating biomarkers was used to compute BA, and the resulting Δage was fit as the dependent variable. In 4510 participants (men 52.0%), the mean of CA (SD) was 55.6 y (±11.6), BA 54.8 y (±8.6), and Δage -0.77 (±7.7). In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increase in E-DIITM and DIS scores led to an increase in Δage (ß = 0.22; 95%CI 0.05, 0.38; ß = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10, 0.44, respectively). We found interaction for DIS by sex and for E-DIITM by BMI. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with accelerated biological aging, which likely leads to an increased long-term risk of inflammation-related diseases and mortality.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.