Social and environmental transmission spread different sets of gut microbes in wild mice.

Gut microbes shape many aspects of organismal biology, yet how these key bacteria transmit among hosts in natural populations remains poorly understood. Recent work in mammals has emphasized either transmission through social contacts or indirect transmission through environmental contact, but the relative importance of different routes has not been directly assessed. Here we used a novel radio-frequency identification-based tracking system to collect long-term high-resolution data on social relationships, space use and microhabitat in a wild population of mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), while regularly characterizing their gut microbiota with 16S ribosomal RNA profiling. Through probabilistic modelling of the resulting data, we identify positive and statistically distinct signals of social and environmental transmission, captured by social networks and overlap in home ranges, respectively. Strikingly, microorganisms with distinct biological attributes drove these different transmission signals. While the social network effect on microbiota was driven by anaerobic bacteria, the effect of shared space was most influenced by aerotolerant spore-forming bacteria. These findings support the prediction that social contact is important for the transfer of microorganisms with low oxygen tolerance, while those that can tolerate oxygen or form spores may be able to transmit indirectly through the environment. Overall, these results suggest social and environmental transmission routes can spread biologically distinct members of the mammalian gut microbiota.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Association of perioperative transfusion of fresh frozen plasma and outcomes after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion is used to manage coagulopathy and bleeding in cardiac surgery patients despite uncertainty about its safety and effectiveness. METHODS: We performed a propensity score matched analysis of the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database including patients from 39 centres from 2005 to 2018. We investigated the association of perioperative FFP transfusion with mortality and other clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Of 119,138 eligible patients, we successfully matched 13,131 FFP recipients with 13,131 controls. FFP transfusion was associated with 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR), 1.41; 99% CI, 1.17-1.71; p < .0001), but not with long-term mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 0.92; 99% CI, 0.85-1.00; p = .007, Holm-Bonferroni α = 0.0004). FFP was also associated with return to theatre for bleeding (OR, 1.97; 99% CI, 1.66-2.34; p < .0001), prolonged intubation (OR, 1.15; 99% CI, 1.05-1.26; p < .0001) and increased chest tube drainage (Mean difference (MD) in mL, 131; 99% CI, 120-141; p < .0001). It was also associated with reduced postoperative creatinine levels (MD in g/L, -6.33; 99% CI, -10.28 to -2.38; p < .0001). CONCLUSION: In a multicentre, propensity score matched analysis, perioperative FFP transfusion was associated with increased 30-day mortality and had variable associations with secondary clinical outcomes.

A Pilot Study of Renin-Guided Angiotensin-II Infusion to Reduce Kidney Stress After Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Vasoplegia is common after cardiac surgery, is associated with hyperreninemia, and can lead to acute kidney stress. We aimed to conduct a pilot study to test the hypothesis that, in vasoplegic cardiac surgery patients, angiotensin-II (AT-II) may not increase kidney stress (measured by [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7]). METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with vasoplegia (cardiac index [CI] > 2.1l/min, postoperative hypotension requiring vasopressors) and Δ-renin (4-hour postoperative-preoperative value) ≥3.7 µU/mL, to AT-II or placebo targeting a mean arterial pressure ≥65 mm Hg for 12 hours. The primary end point was the incidence of kidney stress defined as the difference between baseline and 12 hours [TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] levels. Secondary end points included serious adverse events (SAEs). RESULTS: We randomized 64 patients. With 1 being excluded, 31 patients received AT-II, and 32 received placebo. No significant difference was observed between AT-II and placebo groups for kidney stress (Δ-[TIMP-2]*[IGFBP7] 0.06 [ng/mL]2/1000 [Q1-Q3, -0.24 to 0.28] vs -0.08 [ng/mL]2/1000 [Q1-Q3, -0.35 to 0.14]; P = .19; Hodges-Lehmann estimation of the location shift of 0.12 [ng/mL]2/1000 [95% confidence interval, CI, -0.1 to 0.36]). AT-II patients received less fluid during treatment than placebo patients (2946 vs 3341 mL, P = .03), and required lower doses of norepinephrine equivalent (0.19 mg vs 4.18mg, P < .001). SAEs were reported in 38.7% of patients in the AT-II group and in 46.9% of patients in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: The infusion of AT-II for 12 hours appears feasible and did not lead to an increase in kidney stress in a high-risk cohort of cardiac surgery patients. These findings support the cautious continued investigation of AT-II as a vasopressor in hyperreninemic cardiac surgery patients.

Celebrating wildlife population recovery through education.

Large mammal populations are rapidly recovering across Europe, yet people have not readapted to living with wild animals, resulting in human-wildlife conflict. We believe that society should unite to make the most of the instances of nature recovery, and propose science and education as the key to success.

The effect of divergent and parallel selection on the genomic landscape of divergence.

While the role of selection in divergence along the speciation continuum is theoretically well understood, defining specific signatures of selection in the genomic landscape of divergence is empirically challenging. Modelling approaches can provide insight into the potential role of selection on the emergence of a heterogenous genomic landscape of divergence. Here, we extend and apply an individual-based approach that simulates the phenotypic and genotypic distributions of two populations under a variety of selection regimes, genotype-phenotype maps, modes of migration, and genotype-environment interactions. We show that genomic islands of high differentiation and genomic valleys of similarity may respectively form under divergent and parallel selection between populations. For both types of between-population selection, negative and positive frequency-dependent selection within populations generated genomic islands of higher magnitude and genomic valleys of similarity, respectively. Divergence rates decreased under strong dominance with divergent selection, as well as in models including genotype-environment interactions under parallel selection. For both divergent and parallel selection models, divergence rate was higher under an intermittent migration regime between populations, in contrast to a constant level of migration across generations, despite an equal number of total migrants. We highlight that interpreting a particular evolutionary history from an observed genomic pattern must be done cautiously, as similar patterns may be obtained from different combinations of evolutionary processes. Modelling approaches such as ours provide an opportunity to narrow the potential routes that generate the genomic patterns of specific evolutionary histories.

Platelet Transfusion in Cardiac Surgery: An Entropy-Balanced, Weighted, Multicenter Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Platelet transfusion is common in cardiac surgery, but some studies have suggested an association with harm. Accordingly, we investigated the association of perioperative platelet transfusion with morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the Australian Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database. We included consecutive adults from 2005 to 2018 across 40 centers. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting via entropy balancing to investigate the association of perioperative platelet transfusion with our 2 primary outcomes, operative mortality (composite of both 30-day and in-hospital mortality) and 90-day mortality, as well as multiple other clinically relevant secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Among 119,132 eligible patients, 25,373 received perioperative platelets and 93,759 were considered controls. After entropy balancing, platelet transfusion was associated with reduced operative mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 99% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.84; P < .0001) and 90-day mortality (OR, 0.66; 99% CI, 0.51-0.85; P < .0001). Moreover, it was associated with reduced odds of deep sternal wound infection (OR, 0.57; 99% CI, 0.36-0.89; P = .0012), acute kidney injury (OR, 0.84; 99% CI, 0.71-0.99; P = .0055), and postoperative renal replacement therapy (OR, 0.71; 99% CI, 0.54-0.93; P = .0013). These positive associations were observed despite an association with increased odds of return to theatre for bleeding (OR, 1.55; 99% CI, 1.16-2.09; P < .0001), pneumonia (OR, 1.26; 99% CI, 1.11-1.44; P < .0001), intubation for longer than 24 hours postoperatively (OR, 1.13; 99% CI, 1.03-1.24; P = .0012), inotrope use for >4 hours postoperatively (OR, 1.14; 99% CI, 1.11-1.17; P < .0001), readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery (OR, 1.22; 99% CI, 1.11-1.34; P < .0001), as well as increased drain tube output (adjusted mean difference, 89.2 mL; 99% CI, 77.0 mL-101.4 mL; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In cardiac surgery patients, perioperative platelet transfusion was associated with reduced operative and 90-day mortality. Until randomized controlled trials either confirm or refute these findings, platelet transfusion should not be deliberately avoided when considering odds of death.

Investigating tritrophic interactions using bioenergetic demographic models.

A central debate in ecology has been the long-running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species, which can be surprisingly complex. Mechanistic models offer an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of some of this complexity. We present a bioenergetic mechanistic model of a tritrophic system where the primary vegetation resource follows a seasonal growth function, and the herbivore and carnivore species are modeled using two integral projection models (IPMs) with body mass as the phenotypic trait. Within each IPM, the demographic functions are structured according to bioenergetic principles, describing how animals acquire and transform resources into body mass, energy reserves, and breeding potential. We parameterize this model to reproduce the population dynamics of grass, elk, and wolves in northern Yellowstone National Park (USA) and investigate the impact of wolf reintroduction on the system. Our model generated predictions that closely matched the observed population sizes of elk and wolf in Yellowstone prior to and following wolf reintroduction. The introduction of wolves into our basal grass-elk bioenergetic model resulted in a population of 99 wolves and a reduction in elk numbers by 61% (from 14,948 to 5823) at equilibrium. In turn, vegetation biomass increased by approximately 25% in the growing season and more than threefold in the nongrowing season. The addition of wolves to the model caused the elk population to switch from being food-limited to being predator-limited and had a stabilizing effect on elk numbers across different years. Wolf predation also led to a shift in the phenotypic composition of the elk population via a small increase in elk average body mass. Our model represents a novel approach to the study of predator-prey interactions, and demonstrates that explicitly considering and linking bioenergetics, population demography and body mass phenotypes can provide novel insights into the mechanisms behind complex ecosystem processes.

Development and Validation of Scores to Predict Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation after Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To optimize the early prediction of prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation after cardiac surgery (>24 hours postoperatively). DESIGN: The authors performed a retrospective analysis. SETTING: The Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database was utilized. PARTICIPANTS: All patients included in the ANZSCTS database between January 2015 and December 2018 were analyzed. INTERVENTIONS: No interventions were performed in this observational study. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A previously developed model was modified to allow retrospective risk calculation and model assessment (Modified Hessels score). The database was split into development and validation sets. A new risk model was developed using forward and backward stepwise elimination (ANZ-PreVent score). The authors assessed 48,382 patients, of whom 5004 (10.3%) were ventilated mechanically for >24 hours post-operatively. The Modified Hessels score demonstrated good performance in this database, with a c-index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) and a Brier score of 0.08. The newly developed ANZ-PreVent score demonstrated better performance (validation cohort, n = 12,229), with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83-0.85) (p < 0.0001) and a Brier score of 0.07. Both scores performed better than the severity of illness scores commonly used to predict outcomes in intensive care. CONCLUSIONS: The authors validated a modified version of an existing prediction score and developed the ANZ-PreVent score, with improved performance for identifying patients at risk of ventilation for >24 hours. The improved score can be used to identify high-risk patients for targeted interventions in future randomized controlled trials.

Fresh frozen plasma transfusion after cardiac surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Fresh frozen plasma (FFP) transfusion in the intensive care unit (ICU) is commonly used to treat coagulopathy and bleeding in cardiac surgery, despite suggestion that it may increase the risk of morbidity and mortality through mechanisms such as fluid overload and infection. METHODS: We retrospectively studied consecutive adults undergoing cardiac surgery from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV databases. We applied propensity score matching to investigate the independent association of within-ICU FFP transfusion with mortality and other key clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Of our 12,043 adults who met inclusion criteria, 1585 (13.2%) received perioperative FFP with a median of 2.48 units per recipient (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.04, 4.33) at a median time of 1.83 h (IQR: 0.75, 3.75) after ICU admission. After propensity matching of 952 FFP recipients to 952 controls, we found no significant association between FFP use and hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR): 1.58; 99% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 3.71), suspected infection (OR: 0.72; 99% CI: 0.49, 1.08), or acute kidney injury (OR: 1.23; 99% CI: 0.91, 1.67). However, FFP was associated with increased days in hospital (adjusted mean difference (AMD): 1.28; 99% CI: 0.27, 2.41; p = .0050), days in intensive care (AMD: 1.28; 99% CI: 0.27, 2.28; p = .0011), and chest tube output in millilitres up to 8 h after transfusion (AMD: 92.98; 99% CI: 52.22, 133.74; p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: After propensity matching, FFP transfusion was not associated with increased hospital mortality, but was associated with increased length of stay and no decrease in bleeding in the early post-transfusion period.

Seasonal weather impacts wine quality in Bordeaux.

Critics judge quality based upon subjective characteristics of wine. These judgments are converted by critics into quantitative scores, which allow for comparison of vintages. This paper uses high resolution discrete and continuous time-based weather estimates at both a local and regional level to determine the role of weather conditions on producing high quality Bordeaux vintages, as determined by critics scores. By using discrete-time weather variables across local AOCs, this study reveals climate-quality relationships across the whole year, including previously ignored season effects. By using continuous time weather variables, we reinforce the evidence for these local effects by finding higher quality wine is made in years with higher rainfall, warmer temperatures; and earlier, shorter seasons. We propose management impacts of our results and suggest that as the climate continues to change, the quality of Bordeaux wines may continue to improve.

Population Regulation and Density-Dependent Demography in the Trinidadian Guppy.

AbstractClassic theory for density-dependent selection for delayed maturation requires that a population be regulated through some combination of adult fecundity and/or juvenile survival. We tested whether those demographic conditions were met in four experimental populations of Trinidadian guppies in which delayed maturation of males evolved when the densities of those populations became high. We used monthly mark-recapture data to examine population dynamics and demography in these populations. Three of the four populations displayed clear evidence of regulation. In all four populations, monthly adult survival rates were independent of biomass density or actually increased with increased biomass density. Juvenile recruitment, which is a combination of adult fecundity and juvenile survival, decreased as biomass density increased in all four populations. Demography showed marked seasonality, with greater survival and higher recruitment in the dry season than the wet season. Population regulation via juvenile recruitment supports the hypothesis that density-dependent selection was responsible for the evolution of delayed maturity in males. This body of work represents one of the few complete tests of density-dependent selection theory.

Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder.

It has been suggested that animals may have evolved cooperative breeding strategies in response to extreme climatic conditions. Climate change, however, may push species beyond their ability to cope with extreme climates, and reduce the group sizes in cooperatively breeding species to a point where populations are no longer viable. Predicting the impact of future climates on these species is challenging as modelling the impact of climate change on their population dynamics requires information on both group- and individual-level responses to climatic conditions. Using a single-sex individual-based model incorporating demographic responses to ambient temperature in an endangered species, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, we show that there is a threshold temperature above which populations of the species are predicted to collapse. For simulated populations with carrying capacities equivalent to the median size of real-world populations (nine packs), extinction risk increases once temperatures exceed those predicted in the best-case climate warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6). The threshold is higher (between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) for larger simulated populations (30 packs), but 84% of real-world populations number <30 packs. Simulated populations collapsed because, at high ambient temperatures, juvenile survival was so low that packs were no longer recruiting enough individuals to persist, leading them to die out. This work highlights the importance of social dynamics in determining impacts of climatic variables on social species, and the critical role that recruitment can play in driving population-level impacts of climate change. Population models parameterised on long-term data are essential for predicting future population viability under climate change.

Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system dynamics after targeted blood pressure control using angiotensin II or norepinephrine in cardiac surgery: mechanistic randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The role of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis in vasoplegia after cardiac surgery remains unclear. We tested the hypothesis that, compared with norepinephrine, infusion of angiotensin II titrated to achieve similar mean arterial pressure (MAP) would suppress plasma renin concentration (PRC) while maintaining aldosterone levels. METHODS: In a double-blind, randomised controlled trial, subjects received either an infusion of angiotensin II or norepinephrine to maintain MAP 70-80 mm Hg from induction of anaesthesia. We compared PRC, aldosterone, dipeptidyl peptidase-3, and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 activity between treatment groups, before surgery, on ICU admission, and 24 h after surgery. RESULTS: In 60 patients (11.7% female; mean age 68 yr [11 yr]), norepinephrine increased median PRC at ICU admission (median difference [MD] 46 [inter-quartile range, IQR, 3-88] µU ml-1; P<0.001) but angiotensin II did not (MD -3 [IQR -62 to 35] µU ml-1; P=0.36). Aldosterone levels increased with both. The aldosterone:PRC ratio did not change with norepinephrine (MD -0.01 [IQR -0.14 to 0.03] µU ml-1 per ng dl-1, P=0.76) but increased with angiotensin II (MD 0.05 [IQR 0.004-0.26] µU ml-1 per ng dl-1, P<0.001). The upper quartile of PRC before surgery was associated with higher vasopressor requirements when norepinephrine was used to maintain MAP, but not angiotensin II. Dipeptidyl peptidase-3 levels and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 activities were similar at all time points. CONCLUSIONS: Angiotensin II suppressed renin release while maintaining aldosterone levels compared with norepinephrine. Higher plasma renin concentration before surgery was associated with greater vasopressor requirement for norepinephrine, but not angiotensin II. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry-ACTRN12621000195853 23/02/2021.

Size-Dependent Intraguild Predation, Cannibalism, and Resource Allocation Determine the Outcome of Species Coexistence.

AbstractIntraguild predation (IGP), a system in which species compete for resources and prey on each other, is more common than existing theory predicts. In theory, an IG predator and its prey can coexist if the IG predator is a weaker competitor for a shared resource and the predator directly benefits from consuming the prey. However, many species that are IG predators also consume members of their own species (cannibalism). Here, we ask whether cannibalism can help resolve the paradox of IGP systems. Our approach differs from previous work on IGP and cannibalism by explicitly considering the size dependence of predatory interactions and how the benefits of predation are allocated to survival, growth, and fecundity of the predator or cannibal. Our results show that cannibalism facilitates coexistence under conditions that are opposite of those predicted by standard IGP theory: species can coexist when the cannibal is a better competitor on the shared resources, directly benefits little from consuming conspecifics, and allocates resources from predation more toward growth and fecundity over survival. Because the effects of IGP and cannibalism are opposite, when an IGP predator is also a cannibal, coexistence between the IGP predator and its prey is not possible and instead depends on the operation of other coexistence mechanisms (e.g., resource partitioning). These results point to the importance of understanding the relative rates of IGP and cannibalism as well as the resource allocation strategy of the IG predator in determining the likelihood of species coexistence.

Association of Perioperative Cryoprecipitate Transfusion and Mortality After Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cryoprecipitate is often transfused in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. However, its safety and effectiveness remain uncertain. METHODS: This study was a propensity score-matched analysis of data from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database. The study included adults undergoing cardiac surgery between 2005 and 2018 across 38 sites. The association between perioperative cryoprecipitate transfusion and clinical outcomes was estimated, with a primary outcome of operative mortality. RESULTS: Of 119,132 eligible patients, 11,239 (9.43%) patients received cryoprecipitate. The median cumulative dose was 8 U (interquartile range, 5-10 U). After propensity score matching, we matched 9055 cryoprecipitate recipients to 9055 control subjects. Postoperative cryoprecipitate transfusion was associated with reduced operative mortality (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 99% CI, 0.69-0.97; P = .002) and long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 0.92; 99% CI, 0.87-0.97; P = .0042). It was also associated with a reduction in acute kidney injury (OR, 0.85; 99% CI, 0.73-0.98; P = .0037) and all-cause infection (OR, 0.77; 99% CI, 0.67-0.88; P < .0001). These findings were observed despite increased rates of return to the operating room (OR, 1.36; 99% CI, 1.22-1.51; P < .0001) and cumulative 4-hour postoperative chest tube output (adjusted mean difference in mL, 97.69; 99% CI, 81.65;113.74; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a large, multicenter cohort study and after propensity score matching, perioperative transfusion of cryoprecipitate was associated with reduced operative and long-term mortality.

Platelet Transfusion After Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the independent association of platelet transfusion with hospital mortality and key relevant clinical outcomes in cardiac surgery. DESIGN: A single-center, propensity score-matched, retrospective, cohort study. SETTING: At an American tertiary teaching hospital data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV databases from 2001 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adults undergoing coronary artery bypass graft and/or cardiac valvular surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Platelet transfusion during perioperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Overall, 12,043 adults met the study inclusion criteria. Of these, 1,621 (13.5%) received apheresis-leukoreduced platelets, with a median of 1.19 units per recipient (IQR: 0.93-1.19) at a median of 1.78 hours (IQR: 0.75-4.25) after ICU admission. The platelet count was measured in 1,176 patients (72.5%) before transfusion, with a median count of 120 × 109/L (IQR: 89.0-157.0), and only 53 (3.3%) had platelet counts below 50 × 109/L. After propensity matching of 1,046 platelet recipients with 1,046 controls, perioperative platelet transfusion carried no association with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 1.28; 99% CI: 0.49-3.35; p = 0.4980). However, it was associated with a pattern of decreased odds of suspected infection (eg, respiratory infection, urinary tract infection, septicaemia, or other; OR: 0.70; 99% CI: 0.50-0.97; p = 0.0050), days in the hospital (adjusted mean difference [AMD]: 0.86; 99% CI: -0.27 to 1.98; p = 0.048), or days in intensive care (AMD 0.83; 99% CI: -0.15 to 1.82; p = 0.0290). CONCLUSIONS: Platelet transfusion was not associated with hospital mortality, but it was associated with decreased odds of suspected infection and with shorter ICU and hospital stays.

Cryoprecipitate Transfusion After Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: The association of cryoprecipitate transfusion with patient outcomes after cardiac surgery is unclear. We aimed to investigate the predictors of, and outcomes associated with, postoperative cryoprecipitate transfusion in cardiac surgery patients. METHODS: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV databases. We included adults undergoing cardiac surgery, and propensity score matched cryoprecipitate-treated patients to controls. Using the matched cohort, we investigated the association of cryoprecipitate use with clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were infection, acute kidney injury, intensive care unit length of stay, hospital length of stay, and chest tube output at 2-hour intervals. RESULTS: Of 12,043 eligible patients, 283 (2.35%) patients received cryoprecipitate. The median dose was 5.83 units (IQR 4.17-7.24) given at a median first transfusion time of 1.75 hours (IQR 0.73-4.46) after intensive care unit admission. After propensity scoring, we matched 195 cryoprecipitate recipients to 743 controls. Postoperative cryoprecipitate transfusion was not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.10; 99% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-2.84; p=0.791), infection (OR 0.77; 99% CI 0.45-1.34; p=0.220), acute kidney injury (OR 1.03; 99% CI 0.65-1.62; p=0.876) or cumulative chest tube output (adjusted mean difference 8 hrs post transfusion, 11 mL; 99% CI -104 to 125; p=0.804). CONCLUSIONS: Although cryoprecipitate was typically given to sicker patients with more bleeding, its administration was not associated with worse outcomes. Large, multicentred studies are warranted to further elucidate cryoprecipitate's safety profile and patterns of use in cardiac surgery.

Predicting atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery: a scoping review of associated factors and systematic review of existing prediction models.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after cardiac surgery and associated with increased hospital length of stay, patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify factors associated with POAF and evaluate the accuracy of available POAF prediction models. METHODS: We screened articles from Ovid MEDLINE® and PubMed Central® (PMC) and included studies that evaluated risk factors associated with POAF or studies that designed or validated POAF prediction models. We only included studies in cardiac surgical patients with sample size n ⩾ 50 and a POAF outcome group ⩾20. We summarised factors that were associated with POAF and assessed prediction model performance by reviewing reported calibration and discriminative ability. RESULTS: We reviewed 232 studies. Of these, 142 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Age was frequently found to be associated with POAF, while most other variables showed contradictory findings, or were assessed in few studies. Overall, 15 studies specifically developed and/or validated 12 prediction models. Of these, all showed poor discrimination or absent calibration in predicting POAF in externally validated cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Except for age, reporting of factors associated with POAF is inconsistent and often contradictory. Prediction models have low discrimination, missing calibration statistics, are at risk of bias and show limited clinical applicability. This suggests the need for studies that prospectively collect AF relevant data in large cohorts and then proceed to validate findings in external data sets.

Disease outbreaks select for mate choice and coat color in wolves.

We know much about pathogen evolution and the emergence of new disease strains, but less about host resistance and how it is signaled to other individuals and subsequently maintained. The cline in frequency of black-coated wolves (Canis lupus) across North America is hypothesized to result from a relationship with canine distemper virus (CDV) outbreaks. We tested this hypothesis using cross-sectional data from wolf populations across North America that vary in the prevalence of CDV and the allele that makes coats black, longitudinal data from Yellowstone National Park, and modeling. We found that the frequency of CDV outbreaks generates fluctuating selection that results in heterozygote advantage that in turn affects the frequency of the black allele, optimal mating behavior, and black wolf cline across the continent.