Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

In diverse fields of empirical research-including many in the biological sciences-attempts are made to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome into its effects via a number of different pathways. For example, we may wish to separate the effect of heavy alcohol consumption on systolic blood pressure (SBP) into effects via body mass index (BMI), via gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and via other pathways. Much progress has been made, mainly due to contributions from the field of causal inference, in understanding the precise nature of statistical estimands that capture such intuitive effects, the assumptions under which they can be identified, and statistical methods for doing so. These contributions have focused almost entirely on settings with a single mediator, or a set of mediators considered en bloc; in many applications, however, researchers attempt a much more ambitious decomposition into numerous path-specific effects through many mediators. In this article, we give counterfactual definitions of such path-specific estimands in settings with multiple mediators, when earlier mediators may affect later ones, showing that there are many ways in which decomposition can be done. We discuss the strong assumptions under which the effects are identified, suggesting a sensitivity analysis approach when a particular subset of the assumptions cannot be justified. These ideas are illustrated using data on alcohol consumption, SBP, BMI, and GGT from the Izhevsk Family Study. We aim to bridge the gap from "single mediator theory" to "multiple mediator practice," highlighting the ambitious nature of this endeavor and giving practical suggestions on how to proceed.

Methods for dealing with time-dependent confounding.

Longitudinal studies, where data are repeatedly collected on subjects over a period, are common in medical research. When estimating the effect of a time-varying treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest measured at a later time, standard methods fail to give consistent estimators in the presence of time-varying confounders if those confounders are themselves affected by the treatment. Robins and colleagues have proposed several alternative methods that, provided certain assumptions hold, avoid the problems associated with standard approaches. They include the g-computation formula, inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models and g-estimation of structural nested models. In this tutorial, we give a description of each of these methods, exploring the links and differences between them and the reasons for choosing one over the others in different settings.

Variant CJD infection in the spleen of a neurologically asymptomatic UK adult patient with haemophilia.

SUMMARY: All UK patients with bleeding disorders treated with any UK-sourced pooled factor concentrates between 1980 and 2001 have been informed that they may be at an increased risk of infection with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). We describe a study to detect disease-associated, protease-resistant prion protein (PrP(res)) in 17 neurologically aymptomatic patients with haemophilia considered to be at increased risk of vCJD. Materials from 11 autopsy and seven biopsy cases were analysed for PrP(res). The tissues available from each case were variable, ranging from a single biopsy sample to a wide range of autopsy tissues. A single specimen from the spleen of one autopsy case gave a strong positive result on repeated testing for PrP(res) by Western blot analysis. This tissue came from a 73-year-old male patient with no history of neurological disease, who was heterozygous (methionine/valine) at codon 129 in the prion protein gene. He had received over 9000 units of factor VIII concentrate prepared from plasma pools known to include donations from a vCJD-infected donor, and some 400,000 units not known to include donations from vCJD-infected donors. He had also received 14 units of red blood cells and had undergone several surgical and invasive endoscopic procedures. Estimates of the relative risks of exposure through diet, surgery, endoscopy, blood transfusion and receipt of UK-sourced plasma products suggest that by far the most likely route of infection in this patient was receipt of UK plasma products.

Poor public health knowledge about glaucoma: fact or fiction?

PURPOSE: To document public awareness and knowledge of glaucoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study used health knowledge questionnaires. (a) A short, structured telephone interview was performed with a nationally representative sample of 1009 people. (b) A more detailed questionnaire was administered in two contrasting regions by telephone (500 interviews from the Isle of Wight and 226 interviews from Ealing) or face to face (300 interviews from Ealing). RESULTS: Between 71 and 93% of those interviewed by telephone reported having heard of glaucoma, compared with only 23% of those interviewed face to face in Ealing. Of those who reported having heard of glaucoma, over 80% had at least some knowledge about the disease. CONCLUSION: This is the first study of public awareness of glaucoma across the UK. We found a relatively high level of awareness and knowledge of glaucoma in the general UK population, but identified at least one pocket of poor knowledge in a specific sub-population.

A case-control study of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom: analysis of clustering.

BACKGROUND: The authors investigated whether cases of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) had lived closer to one another at some time in life than individuals without sporadic CJD. Such a phenomenon would be compatible with some cases resulting from transmission. METHODS: UK sporadic CJD cases occurring from 1990 to 1998 were identified. Age-, sex- and hospital-matched controls were recruited. Lifetime residential histories were obtained by interview, usually with a proxy respondent. With use of Monte Carlo simulation, the residential proximity of cases during various time periods was compared with that expected in the absence of any clustering, using the information collected on the controls. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty sporadic CJD disease cases and 220 controls were included. Cases lived closer together than might be expected in the absence of any disease-clustering mechanism. This evidence became stronger as the critical period during which residential proximity was required to have occurred extended further into the past. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with some sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) cases resulting from exposure to a common external factor. The rarity of sporadic CJD suggests that repeated point-source outbreaks of infection are more likely to explain our observations than direct case-to-case transmission. Identifying sources of such outbreaks many years after the event will be extremely difficult.

The epidemiology of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was identified as a new disease in 1996. It was linked to infection with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent although the epidemiological evidence for this was not strong, but later strain typing studies confirmed the association. The disease has affected predominantly young adults whose dietary and other characteristics are unexceptional compared to control groups, other than that all patients to date have been methoinine homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene and the incidence has been about two times higher in the North of the UK. The number of cases in the 7 years after first identification of the disease has been considerably lower than initially feared, given the likely widespread exposure of the UK population to the BSE agent through contaminated beef products. Predictions of the possible future course of the epidemic have many associated uncertainties, but current mathematical models suggest that more than a few thousand cases is unlikely. Such modelling is limited by the absence of a test for infection with the vCJD agent. The development of a test that could be used on easily accessible tissue to detect infection early in the incubation period would not only advance understanding of the epidemiology of infection with the agent but would also aid the implementation of control measures to prevent potential iatrogenic spread.

Child mortality in a West African population protected with insecticide-treated curtains for a period of up to 6 years.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of insecticide-treated curtains (ITC) on all-cause child mortality (6-59 months) over a period of six years. To determine whether initial reductions in child mortality following the implementation of ITC are sustained over the longer term or whether "delayed" mortality occurs. METHODS: A rural population of ca 100 000 living in an area with high, seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission was studied in Burkina Faso. Annual censuses were conducted from 1993 to 2000 to measure child mortality. ITC to cover doors, windows, and eaves were provided to half the population in 1994 with the remainder receiving ITC in 1996. Curtains were re-treated or, if necessary, replaced annually. FINDINGS: Over six years of implementation of ITC, no evidence of the shift in child mortality from younger to older children was observed. Estimates of the reduction in child mortality associated with ITC ranged from 19% to 24%. CONCLUSIONS: In our population there was no evidence to suggest that initial reduction in child mortality associated with the introduction of insecticide-treated materials was subsequently compromised by a shift in child mortality to older-aged children. Estimates of the impact of ITC on child mortality in this population range from 19% to 24%.

Humoral responses to defined malaria antigens in children living since birth under insecticide treated curtains in Burkina Faso.

Insecticide treated materials (ITM) are considered a useful malaria control measure for endemic countries, but whether they also delay the acquisition of immunity to malaria remains unclear. This study investigates plasma antibody levels in 160 children aged 3-6 years from five villages protected by insecticide treated curtains (ITC) over 6 years and in 184 children of the same age group from five villages in the same area never covered by ITC. The antigens to which antibodies were investigated were: the Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (CSP) repetitive sequence (NANP)5; the C-terminal domain of the P. falciparum exported protein 1 (Cter-PfExp1); three fragments of the glutamate rich protein (GLURP), referred to as R0, R1 and R2; the merozoite surface protein 3 (MSP3). The level of antibodies was lower in children from the ITC area than in children from the non-ITC area for (NANP)5, R0, R2 and MSP3. Prevalence and intensity of P. falciparum infection were similar in the two groups of children. These findings suggest that reducing the level of malaria transmission over a long period may affect the level of antibodies in children to both sporozoite and blood stage malaria antigens.

Deaths from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK.

In 2002, 17 people died from variant CJD (vCJD) in the UK, compared with 20 in 2001 and 28 in 2000. We analysed data for deaths from vCJD since 1995 and estimated the underlying trend in mortality. The trend had a quadratic component (p=0.005), suggesting that the increase was not exponential, and that the previously increasing trend is slowing down. The death rate peaked in 2000. These findings are encouraging, but mortality might increase again in the future.

IFN-gamma is associated with risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection in China.

Before the start of the schistosomiasis transmission season, 129 villagers resident on a Schistosoma japonicum-endemic island in Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province, 64 of whom were stool-positive for S. japonicum eggs by the Kato method and 65 negative, were treated with praziquantel. Forty-five days later the 93 subjects who presented for follow-up were all stool-negative. Blood samples were collected from all 93 individuals. S. japonicum soluble worm antigen (SWAP) and soluble egg antigen (SEA) stimulated IL-4, IL-5 and IFN-gamma production in whole-blood cultures were measured by ELISA. All the subjects were interviewed nine times during the subsequent transmission season to estimate the intensity of their contact with potentially infective snail habitats, and the subjects were all re-screened for S. japonicum by the Kato method at the end of the transmission season. Fourteen subjects were found to be infected at that time. There was some indication that the risk of infection might be associated with gender (with females being at higher risk) and with the intensity of water contact, and there was evidence that levels of SEA-induced IFN-gamma production were associated with reduced risk of infection.

Down-regulation of specific antigen-driven cytokine production in a population with endemic Schistosoma japonicum infection.

Schistosome antigen-driven cytokine responses and antischistosome antibody levels of residents of a Schistosoma japonicum endemic island in Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province were studied before and 45 days after treatment with praziquantel. IL-4, IL-5, IL-10 and INF-gamma were all detected in the supernatants of whole-blood cultures after stimulation with schistosome soluble egg antigen (SEA) and soluble worm antigen preparation (SWAP). The percentages of subjects producing detectable amounts of each cytokine assayed were higher in the group who were negative by stool examination at the start of the study than in those who were initially stool positive. After praziquantel treatment the percentages of subjects producing both type I and type II cytokines increased. This suggests that the production of both types of cytokine was down-regulated in the presence of live, egg-laying S. japonicum adult worms but that this was reversible by treatment. In contrast, the antibody studies showed higher levels of SWAP and SEA-specific antibodies (IgE, total IgG, IgG4, IgM) in subjects who were originally stool-positive than in those who were stool-negative. After treatment specific IgE responses were elevated, but total IgG and IgG4 anti-SEA and IgM anti-SWAP antibody levels all fell significantly.

Insecticide-treated materials, mosquito adaptation and mass effect: entomological observations after five years of vector control in Burkina Faso.

Insecticide-treated bednets and curtains have been shown to be successful in reducing malaria transmission and child mortality in Africa over periods of up to 2 years. A major concern relating to this approach is that, in time, it will be compromised by the selection of mosquito genotypes that are resistant at the biochemical or behavioural level. We report entomological data from a large area in Burkina Faso where insecticide-treated curtains have been in use for up to 5 years. Longitudinal indoor and outdoor CDC light-trap catches were performed in 4 sentinel villages. In addition cross-sectional surveys using indoor spray catches and outdoor CDC light-trap catches were performed each September in a larger number of villages, including 8 located outside the intervention area. We found no evidence of the selection of mosquito phenotypes that might compromise the intervention. Indoor and outdoor vector densities remained very low after 5 years of intervention, both compared with pre-intervention levels and with concurrent levels outside the intervention area. We found no evidence of a switch to outdoor rather than indoor biting. The proportion of blood meals taken on humans may have decreased but our data are inconclusive on this point. We observed higher vector densities and sporozoite rates at the periphery of the intervention zone than at the centre, which may reflect re-invasion of peripheral villages by mosquitoes from outside the intervention area. In 'real life' programmes, with perhaps patchy, less than optimal coverage, the protection against malaria transmission provided to individuals using insecticide-treated materials may be less than that achieved in the randomized controlled trials which demonstrated an impact of insecticide-treated materials on child mortality.

Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.

Back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the United Kingdom is used to estimate the number of infected individuals and future disease incidence. The model assumes a hazard of infection proportional to the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United Kingdom and accounts for precautionary control measures and very wide ranges of incubation periods. The model indicates that current case data are compatible with numbers of infections ranging from a few hundred to several millions. In the latter case, the model suggests that the mean incubation period must be well beyond the human life-span, resulting in disease epidemics of at most several thousand cases.

Insecticide treated curtains and allelic polymorphism of Plasmodium falciparum genes in a rural area of Burkina Faso (west Africa).

To assess the possible impact of insecticide treated curtains (ITC) on the composition of a Plasmodium falciparum population in a rural area of Burkina Faso, blood samples were collected during the rainy season of 1997 from 226 children aged 3-6 years, from 4 villages equipped with ITC and 2 control villages without ITC. The analysis of fragment lengths of 3 highly polymorphic P. falciparum genes (msp-1, msp-2 and glurp) revealed a maximum number of 3 alleles per infected person for each gene. The mean number of clones per infected person was similar in villages with and without ITC.

Glaucoma prevalence may not be uniformly high in all 'black' populations.

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of glaucoma are generally presented for populations described as "whites" or "blacks". "Black" populations appear to have a higher glaucoma preva lence than "white" populations. We describe a population-baseed survey for glaucoma in rural Northern Nigeria. A total of 1563 Hausa/Fulani individuals aged 5 years and above, underwent an extensive screening test and a detailed ophthalmological examination was performed on individuals who failed the test. The overall prevalence of open angle glaucoma in this population was 1.02% (0.12 to 3.64, 95% confidence interval) in individuals 45 years of age and older. This is lower than the prevalence rates reported for other "black" populations. The low prevalence of glaucoma detected in this African population may be, to some extent, a reflection of the age structure of the population studied or methodological differences in ophthalmic examinations performed. It is also possible that the prevalence of glaucoma varies considerably between "black" populations due to genetic heterogeneity or the effect of some unidentified environmental exposure. The use of the simple description of populations as 'black' (or 'white'), which focuses on a commonality, tends to obscure the potential heterogeneity within and between populations and thus may be unhelpful in some circumstances.

Incidence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK.

The number of deaths from variant CJD (vCJD) in the UK increased in the last quarter of 1998, although numbers were lower in subsequent quarters. We analysed the numbers of definite and probable (living and dead) vCJD cases since 1994 to assess trends in incidence. We estimated that the number of onsets increased by 23% per year for 1994-2000 (p=0.004), and that deaths increased by 33% for 1995-2000 (p=0.005). The absolute number of cases in the UK is still low, but such an increase should be a matter of concern.

Design and analysis issues in cluster-randomized trials of interventions against infectious diseases.

This paper discusses the application of the cluster-randomized trial (CRT) design to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions against infectious diseases. In addition to the usual rationale for this design, there are a number of other advantages that are peculiar to the study of infectious diseases. In particular, CRTs are able to measure the overall effect of an intervention at the population level, capturing both the direct effect of an intervention on an individual's susceptibility to infection, and also the indirect effects due to changes in risks of transmission to other individuals, or to the mass effect or 'herd immunity' resulting from intervening in a large proportion of the population. We briefly review published CRTs of interventions against infectious diseases, most of which have been conducted in the developing countries where such diseases predominate. The focus is on trials in which communities or other large groupings are randomized, and in which impacts on infectious disease incidence or mortality are assessed. We then discuss three issues that are of special relevance to CRTs of infectious diseases. First, issues relating to the definition and size of clusters; secondly, the role of matching or stratification, and the choice of matching factors; and thirdly, the definition of direct and indirect effects of intervention, and methods of assessing these components in a CRT. We conclude by outlining some areas for future research.

Diagnosis of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

As of December 31, 1998, 35 deaths had been attributed to new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nvCJD) in the United Kingdom, of which 33 cases had been neuropathologically confirmed and 2 classified as probable nvCJD. Fifteen cases were male and 20 female. The median illness duration was 14 months (range, 8-38 months) and the median age at death was 29 years (range, 18-53 years). The dinical features were consistent with previous descriptions. In nearly all cases, there were early psychiatric symptoms after a median period of 6 months ataxia developed, followed by involuntary movements and cognitive impairment. Electroencephalograms did not show the "typical" appearances found in sporadic CJD, about half the cases tested had a positive 14-3-3 immunoassay, and over 70% of cases had bilateral pulvinar high signal on magnetic resonance brain scanning. Prion protein gene analysis showed that all cases were homozygous for methionine at codon 129. Diagnostic criteria for nvCJD have been formulated, which have a high sensitivity and specificity.