"There's So Much That They're Enduring": Experiences of Older Adults Undergoing Major Elective Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: This qualitative study aimed to explore the psychosocial experience of older adults undergoing major elective surgery from the perspective of both the patient and family caregiver. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Older adults face unique psychological and social vulnerabilities that can increase susceptibility to poor health outcomes. How these vulnerabilities influence surgical treatment and recovery is understudied in the geriatric surgical population. METHODS: Adults aged 65 and older undergoing a high-risk major elective surgery at the University of California, San Francisco and their caregivers were recruited. Semi-structured interviews were conducted at three time points: 1-2 weeks before surgery, and at 1- and 3-months following surgery. An inductive qualitative approach was used to identify underlying themes. RESULTS: Twenty-five older adult patients (age range 65-82 years, 60% male) and 11 caregivers (age range 53-78 years, 82% female) participated. Three themes were identified. First, older surgical patients experienced significant challenges to emotional well-being both before and after surgery, which had a negative impact on recovery. Second, older adults relied on a combination of personal and social resources to navigate these challenges. Lastly, both patients and caregivers desired more resources from the healthcare system to address "the emotional piece" of surgical treatment and recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults and their caregivers described multiple overlapping challenges to emotional well-being that spanned the course of the perioperative period. Our findings highlight a critical component of perioperative care with significant implications for the recovery of older surgical patients.

Long-term outcomes after rehabilitation in Medicare Advantage and fee-for-service beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Financial incentives in capitated Medicare Advantage (MA) plans may lead to inadequate rehabilitation. We therefore investigated if MA enrollees had worse long-term physical performance and functional outcomes after rehabilitation. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries in the nationally representative National Health and Aging Trends Study. We compared MA and fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries reporting rehabilitation between 2014 and 2017 by change in (1) Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and (2) NHATS-derived Functional Independence Measure (FIM) from the previous year, using t-tests incorporating inverse-probability weighting and complex survey design. Secondary outcomes were self-reported: (1) improved function during rehabilitation, (2) worse function since rehabilitation ended, (3) meeting rehabilitation goals, and (4) meeting insurance limits. RESULTS: Among 738 MA and 1488 FFS participants, weighted mean age was 76 years (SD 7.0), 59% were female, and 9% had probable dementia. MA beneficiaries were more likely to be Black (9% vs. 6%) or Hispanic/other race (15% vs. 10%), be on Medicaid (14% vs. 10%), have lower income (median $35,000 vs. $48,000), and receive <1 month of rehabilitation (30% vs. 23%). MA beneficiaries had a similar decline in SPPB (-0.46 [SD 1.8] vs. -0.21 [SD 2.7], p-value 0.069) and adapted FIM (-1.05 [SD 3.7] vs. -1.13 [SD 5.45], p-value 0.764) compared to FFS. MA beneficiaries were less likely to report improved function during rehabilitation (61% [95% CI 56-67] vs. 70% [95% CI 67-74], p-value 0.006). Other outcomes and analyses restricted to inpatient rehabilitation participants were non-significant. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: MA enrollment was associated with lower likelihood of self-reported functional improvement during rehabilitation but no clinically or statistically significant differences in annual changes of physical performance or function. As MA expands, future studies must monitor implications on rehabilitation coverage and older adults' independence.

One-Year Recovery Among Survivors of Prolonged Severe COVID-19: A National Multicenter Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the long-term effects of severe COVID-19 illness on survivors is essential for effective pandemic recovery planning. Therefore, we investigated impairments among hospitalized adults discharged to long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) for prolonged severe COVID-19 illness who survived 1 year. DESIGN: The Recovery After Transfer to an LTACH for COVID-19 (RAFT COVID) study was a national, multicenter, prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING AND PATIENTS: We included hospitalized English-speaking adults transferred to one of nine LTACHs in the United States between March 2020 and February 2021 and completed a survey. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Validated instruments for impairments and free response questions about recovering. Among 282 potentially eligible participants who provided permission to be contacted, 156 (55.3%) participated (median age, 65; 38.5% female; 61.3% in good prior health; median length of stay of 57 d; 77% mechanically ventilated for a median of 26 d; 42% had a tracheostomy). Approximately two-thirds (64%) had a persistent impairment, including physical (57%), respiratory (49%; 19% on supplemental oxygen), psychiatric (24%), and cognitive impairments (15%). Nearly half (47%) had two or more impairment types. Participants also experienced persistent debility from hospital-acquired complications, including mononeuropathies and pressure ulcers. Participants described protracted recovery, attributing improvements to exercise/rehabilitation, support, and time. While considered life-altering with 78.7% not returning to their usual health, participants expressed gratitude for recovering; 99% returned home and 60% of previously employed individuals returned to work. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly two-thirds of survivors of among the most prolonged severe COVID-19 illness had persistent impairments at 1 year that resembled post-intensive care syndrome after critical illness plus debility from hospital-acquired complications.

Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%). CONCLUSIONS: VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

The Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment Among Medicare Beneficiaries Who Use Outpatient Physical Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment (including cognitive impairment no dementia [CIND] and dementia) among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who used outpatient physical therapy and to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment by measures that are relevant to rehabilitation practice. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis included 730 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the 2016 wave of the Health and Retirement Study with claims for outpatient physical therapy. Cognitive status, our primary variable of interest, was categorized as normal, CIND, or dementia using a validated approach, and population prevalence of cognitive impairment (CIND and dementia) was estimated by sociodemographic variables and Charlson comorbidity index score. Age-, gender- (man/woman), race-/ethnicity-adjusted population prevalence of CIND and dementia were also calculated for walking difficulty severity, presence of significant pain, self-reported fall history, moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) ≤1×/week, and sleep disturbance frequency using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Among Medicare beneficiaries with outpatient physical therapist claims, the prevalence of any cognitive impairment was 20.3% (CIND:15.2%, dementia:5.1%). Cognitive impairment was more prevalent among those who were older, Black, had lower education attainment, or higher Charlson comorbidity index scores. The adjusted population prevalence of cognitive impairment among those who reported difficulty walking across the room was 29.8%, difficulty walking 1 block was 25.9%, difficulty walking several blocks was 20.8%, and no difficulty walking was 16.3%. Additionally, prevalence of cognitive impairment among those with MVPA ≤1×/week was 27.1% and MVPA >1×/week was 14.1%. Cognitive impairment prevalence did not vary by significant pain, self-reported fall history, or sleep disturbance. CONCLUSION: One in 5 older adults who use outpatient physical therapist services have cognitive impairment. Furthermore, cognitive impairment is more common in older physical therapist patients who report worse physical function and less physical activity. IMPACT: Physical therapists should consider cognitive screening for vulnerable older adults to inform tailoring of clinical practice toward a patient's ability to remember and process rehabilitation recommendations.

Predictors of Psychological Distress Among Rural Family/Friend Caregivers of People Living With Dementia in the United States: Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Caregivers of persons living with dementia in rural United States are a vulnerable population. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, rural communities experienced heightened disparities in social services, healthcare, suicides, and mortality. Guided by the Caregiving Stress Process Model, this study examines the relationship between the stressors and resources of rural caregivers of persons living with dementia and their experience of depression, stress, and COVID-19. METHODS: One hundred and fifty-two rural caregivers of persons living with dementia completed an online survey, March 1, 2021-April 30, 2022. Analyses used baseline responses to validated scales and an open-ended question, "How has COVID impacted your life as a caregiver?" Dependent variables were depressive symptoms and stress. Bivariate and hierarchical linear regression analyses examined associations of stressors and resources with depressive symptoms and stress. Thematic analysis examined open-ended question responses. RESULTS: Among examined stressors, high care burden (b = 1.94, p < .05) and loneliness (b = 0.76, p < .0001) were positively associated with depressive symptoms. Loneliness (b = 0.24, p < .05) and ≥41 hr spent caregiving per week (reference 10-20 hr; b = 0.99, p < .05) were associated with stress. Among examined resources, self-efficacy for caregiving (b = -0.21, p < .05) was inversely associated with stress. Qualitative results confirmed quantitative results and identified additional pandemic-related themes in stressors and resources. DISCUSSION: We found that caregiver burden, loneliness, and caregiving hours were associated with greater psychological distress among rural caregivers of persons living with dementia during the pandemic, whereas self-efficacy for caregiving was protective. Rural caregivers need increased support to address care burdens and enhance psychological resources for caregiving. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04428112.

Development and External Validation of Models to Predict Need for Nursing Home Level of Care in Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Dementia.

Importance: Most older adults living with dementia ultimately need nursing home level of care (NHLOC). Objective: To develop models to predict need for NHLOC among older adults with probable dementia using self-report and proxy reports to aid patients and family with planning and care management. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study included data from 1998 to 2016 from the Health and Retirement Study (development cohort) and from 2011 to 2019 from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (validation cohort). Participants were community-dwelling adults 65 years and older with probable dementia. Data analysis was conducted between January 2022 and October 2023. Exposures: Candidate predictors included demographics, behavioral/health factors, functional measures, and chronic conditions. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was need for NHLOC defined as (1) 3 or more activities of daily living (ADL) dependencies, (2) 2 or more ADL dependencies and presence of wandering/need for supervision, or (3) needing help with eating. A Weibull survival model incorporating interval censoring and competing risk of death was used. Imputation-stable variable selection was used to develop 2 models: one using proxy responses and another using self-responses. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [iAUC]) and calibration (calibration plots). Results: Of 3327 participants with probable dementia in the Health and Retirement Study, the mean (SD) age was 82.4 (7.4) years and 2301 (survey-weighted 70%) were female. At the end of follow-up, 2107 participants (63.3%) were classified as needing NHLOC. Predictors for both final models included age, baseline ADL and instrumental ADL dependencies, and driving status. The proxy model added body mass index and falls history. The self-respondent model added female sex, incontinence, and date recall. Optimism-corrected iAUC after bootstrap internal validation was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) in the proxy model and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the self-respondent model. On external validation in the National Health and Aging Trends Study (n = 1712), iAUC in the proxy and self-respondent models was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.70) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.67), respectively. There was excellent calibration across the range of predicted risk. Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study showed that relatively simple models using self-report or proxy responses can predict need for NHLOC in community-dwelling older adults with probable dementia with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration. These estimates may help guide discussions with patients and families in future care planning.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment in home health physical therapy.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cognitive impairment in home health physical therapy (HHPT) is unknown. We sought to identify the prevalence of cognitive impairment, including cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia, among older adults who used HHPT, and if cognitive impairment prevalence was higher among those with HHPT-relevant characteristics. METHODS: For our cross-sectional analysis, we identified 963 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with HHPT claims (>85 years old: 28.8%, women: 63.7%, non-Hispanic White: 82.1%) in the 2014 and 2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and used a validated algorithm to categorize cognitive status as normal, CIND, or dementia. We estimated the population prevalence and calculated age, gender, race/ethnicity adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of CIND and dementia for characteristics relevant to HHPT service delivery including depression, walking difficulty, fall history, incontinence, moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) ≤1x/week, and community-initiated HHPT using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The population prevalence of cognitive impairment was 46.4% (CIND: 27.3%, dementia: 19.1%). The prevalence of cognitive impairment was greater among those with depression (46.7% vs. 39.5%), difficulty walking across the room (58.9% vs. 41.8%), fall history (49.1% vs. 42.9%), MVPA ≤1x/week (50.0% vs. 38.0%), and community-initiated HHPT (55.2% vs. 40.2%). Compared to normal cognitive status, the odds of cognitive impairment were greater for those with MVPA≤1x/week (CIND: aOR = 1.57 [95% CI: 1.05-2.33], dementia: aOR = 2.55 [95% CI: 1.54-4.22]), depression (dementia: aOR = 1.99 [95% CI: 1.19-3.30]), difficulty walking across the room (dementia: aOR = 2.54 [95% CI: 1.40-4.60]), fall history (dementia: aOR = 1.85 [95% CI: 1.20-2.83]), and community-initiated HHPT (dementia: aOR = 1.72 (95% CI: 1.13-2.61]). CONCLUSION: There is a high prevalence of CIND and dementia in HHPT, and no characteristics had a low prevalence of cognitive impairment. Physical therapists should be ready to identify cognitive impairment and adapt home health service delivery for this vulnerable population of older adults.

Music engagement as part of everyday life in dementia caregiving relationships at home.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Emerging evidence suggests music-based interventions can improve well-being for people living with dementia, but little is known about the ways in which music might support dementia caregiving relationships as part of everyday life at home. This study examined music engagement in the context of daily life to identify patterns of music engagement and potential targets for the design of music-based interventions to support well-being. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This ethnographic, in-home study of people living with dementia and their family and professional care partners used methods from ethnomusicology, including semi-structured interviews and in-home participant-observation with a focus on music engagement. RESULTS: 21 dyads were purposively recruited for diversity in terms of gender, ethnicity/race/heritage, caregiving relationship and music experiences. Despite participants' diverse music preferences, three distinct music engagement patterns emerged. 1) Professional care partners intentionally integrated music listening and singing into daily life as part of providing direct care. 2) Family care partners, who had prior dementia care nursing experience or family music traditions, integrated music into daily life in ways that supported their personal relationships. 3) In contrast, family care partners, who lacked dementia care experience and had high levels of caregiver burden, disengaged from prior music-making. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The distinct music engagement patterns reflect different needs on the part of dyads. It is important to continue to support dyads who engage in music daily, and to consider developing music-based interventions to support well-being among dyads who have become disengaged from music.

The Natural History of Disability and Caregiving Before and After Long-Term Care Entry.

Importance: Many older persons move into long-term care facilities (LTCFs) due to disability and insufficient home caregiving options. However, the extent of disability and caregiving provided around the time of entry is unknown. Objective: To quantitatively describe disability and caregiving before and after LTCF entry, comparing nursing home (NH), assisted living (AL), and independent living (IL) entrants. Design, Setting, and Participants: A longitudinal cohort study using prospectively collected annual data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study from 2011 to 2020 including participants in the continental US. Overall, 932 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries entering LTCF from 2011 to 2019 were included. Entry into LTCF was set as t = 0, and participant interviews from 4 years before and 2 years after were used. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of severe disability (severe difficulty or dependence in ≥3 activities of daily living), prevalence of caregivers, and median weekly caregiving hours per entrant, using weighted mixed-effects regression against time as linear spline. Results: At entry, mean (SD) age was 84 (8.4) years, 609 (64%, all percentages survey weighted) were women, 143 (6%) were Black, 29 (3%) were Hispanic, 30 (4%) were other (other race and ethnicity included American Indian, Asian, Native Hawaiian, and other), and 497 (49%) had dementia. 349 (34%) entered NH, 426 (45%) entered AL, and 157 (21%) entered IL. Overall, NH and AL entry were preceded by months of severe disability and escalating caregiving. Before entry, 49% (95% CI, 29%-68%) of NH entrants and 10% (95% CI, 3%-24%) of AL entrants had severe disability. Most (>97%) had at least a caregiver, but only one-third (NH, 33%; 95% CI, 20%-50%; AL, 33%; 95% CI, 24%-44%) had a paid caregiver. Median care was 27 hours weekly (95% CI, 18-40) in NH entrants and 18 (95% CI, 14-24) in AL entrants. On NH and AL entry, severe disability rose to 89% (95% CI, 82%-94%) and 28% (95% CI, 16%-44%) on NH and AL entry and was 66% (95% CI, 55%-75%) 2 years after entry in AL residents. Few IL entrants (<2%) had severe disability and their median care remained less than 7 hours weekly before and after entry. Conclusions: This study found that persons often enter NHs and ALs after months of severe disability and substantial help at home, usually from unpaid caregivers. Assisted living residents move when less disabled, but approach levels of disability similar to NH entrants within 2 years. Data may help clinicians understand when home supports approach a breaking point.

Health care utilization and costs in the years preceding dementia identification.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that health care utilization increases after incident dementia, particularly after dementia diagnosis and toward the end of life; however, less is known about utilization in the years before dementia identification. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we obtained data on n = 5547 beneficiaries from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)-Medicare linked sample (n = 1241 with and n = 4306 without dementia) to compare longitudinal trends in health care costs and utilization in the 6 years preceding dementia identification relative to a confounder-balanced reference group without dementia. RESULTS: We found that persons with dementia had a greater prevalence of outpatient emergency department (ED), inpatient hospital, skilled nursing, and home health use, and total health care costs in the years preceding dementia identification compared to their similar counterparts without dementia across a comparable timespan in later life. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to suggest greater healthcare burden may exist well before clinical manifestation and identification of dementia. HIGHLIGHTS: Several studies have documented the tremendous healthcare-related costs of living with dementia, particularly toward the end of life. Dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative disease, which, for some, includes a prolonged pre-clinical phase. However, health services research to date has seldom considered the time before incident dementia. This study documents that health care utilization and costs are significantly elevated in the years before incident dementia relative to a demographically-similar comparison group without dementia.

Perceptions of the Role of Living Alone in Providing Services to Patients With Cognitive Impairment.

Importance: The potential role of living alone in either facilitating or hampering access to and use of services for older adults with cognitive impairment is largely unknown. Specifically, it is critical to understand directly from health care and social services professionals how living alone creates barriers to the access and use of supportive health care and social services for racially and ethnically diverse patients with cognitive impairment. Objective: To identify the potential role of living alone in the access and use of health care and social services for diverse patients with cognitive impairment by investigating professionals' perceptions of caring for such patients who live alone in comparison with counterparts living with others. Design, Setting, and Participants: This qualitative study of 76 clinicians, social workers, and other professionals used semistructured interviews conducted between February 8, 2021, and June 8, 2022, with purposively sampled professionals providing services to diverse patients with cognitive impairment in Michigan, California, and Texas. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinicians, social workers, and other professionals compared serving patients with cognitive impairment and living alone vs counterparts living with others. An inductive content analysis was used to analyze the interview transcripts. Results: A total of 76 professionals were interviewed (mean [SD] age, 49.3 [12.7] years); 59 were female (77.6%), 8 were Black or African American (11%), and 35 were White (46%). Participants included physicians, nurses, social workers, and home-care aides, for a total of 20 professions. Participants elucidated specific factors that made serving older adults living alone with cognitive impairment more challenging than serving counterparts living with others (eg, lacking an advocate, incomplete medical history, requiring difficult interventions), as well as factors associated with increased concerns when caring for older adults living alone with cognitive impairment, such as isolation and a crisis-dominated health care system. Participants also identified reasons for systematic unmet needs of older adults living alone with cognitive impairment for essential health care and social services, including policies limiting access and use to public home-care aides. Conclusions and Relevance: In this qualitative study of professionals' perspectives, findings suggest that living alone is a social determinant of health among patients with cognitive impairment owing to substantial barriers in access to services. Results raised considerable concerns about safety because the US health care system is not well equipped to address the unique needs of older adults living alone with cognitive impairment.

Development and applicability of a risk assessment tool for hospital-acquired mobility impairment in ambulatory older adults.

BACKGROUND: Mobility loss is common in hospitalized older adults, and resources to prevent mobility impairment are finite. Our goal was to use routinely collected data to develop a risk assessment tool that identifies individuals at risk of losing the ability to walk during hospitalization on the first hospital day. Second, we determined if the tool could inform the use of mobility-preserving interventions. METHODS: We included patients admitted to a general medical service, aged ≥65 years, who walked occasionally or frequently on admission (Braden Scale Activity subset > = 3). Patients were considered to have a new mobility impairment if, at discharge, their ability to walk was severely limited or nonexistent or they were confined to bed (Braden Scale Activity subset <3). We used predictors available on the first hospital day to develop (2017-18 cohort) and validate (2019 cohort) a risk assessment tool. We determined the association between predicted risk and therapy use in the validation cohort to highlight the model's clinical utility. RESULTS: 5542 patients were included (median age 76 years, 48% women); 7.6% were discharged unable to walk. The model included 5 predictors: age, medication administrations, Glasgow Coma Scale verbal score, serum albumin, and urinary catheter presence. In the validation cohort, the model discriminated well (c-statistic 0.75) and was strongly associated with hospital-acquired mobility impairment (lowest decile 1%, highest decile 25%). In the validation cohort, therapy consultation ordering increased linearly with predicted risk; however, observed mobility impairment increased exponentially. CONCLUSION: The tool assesses the risk of mobility impairment in all ambulatory hospitalized older adults on the first hospital day. Further, it identifies at-risk older adults who may benefit from mobility interventions.

Heart failure with comorbid dementia: Association with clinical characteristics and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and dementia both have profound effects on function and mortality in older persons. However, we have limited knowledge about the impact of co-occurring HF and dementia. Our goal was to understand how often persons with HF have dementia and the impact of their co-occurrence. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of participants (age > 65) in the 2015 wave of the nationally representative Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) with linkage to Medicare claims. 912 participants with HF (45% older than 80, 51% women) using Medicare claims. We used the validated NHATS dementia algorithm to identify those with probable dementia. Outcomes of interest included the need for help with activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) at baseline, functional decline, hospitalization over 1 year, and mortality over 2-years. Baseline functional status, functional decline, and hospitalization were compared using adjusted logistic regression, mortality was analyzed using adjusted Cox regression models adjusted for demographics, socio-economic status, baseline health, and baseline functional status. RESULTS: 200 (21%) of the participants with HF also had dementia. For each I/ADL, patients with both HF and dementia were more likely to need help than those with HF without dementia. 71.8% of participants with HF and dementia needed help with medications versus 16.6% with HF without dementia (p < 0.001). Having HF and dementia was associated with an increased risk of requiring help with additional ADLs after one year (aOR = 2.69, 95% CI 1.53, 4.73). Participants with HF and dementia had an increased risk of being hospitalized within one year (aOR = 2.02 95% CI 1.16, 3.54), or dying within two years (aHR = 1.52 95% CI 1.03, 2.26). CONCLUSIONS: One-fifth of persons over age 65 with HF also have comorbid dementia. Co-occurring HF and dementia markedly increase functional impairment and subsequent ADL decline, hospitalization, and death. These results highlight the need for physician awareness for signs of dementia, and appropriate adjustments in the management of HF.

Overestimation of anticoagulant benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation and low life expectancy: evidence from 12 randomized trials.

Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a high rate of all-cause mortality that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. While the competing risk of death may affect expected anticoagulant benefit, guidelines do not account for it. We sought to determine if using a competing risks framework materially affects the guideline-endorsed estimate of absolute risk reduction attributable to anticoagulants. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 RCTs that randomized patients with AF to oral anticoagulants or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of anticoagulants to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using two methods. First, we estimated the ARR using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and then again using a Competing Risk Model that uses the same inputs as CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for non-linear growth in benefit over time. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences in estimated benefit varied by life expectancy. Results: 7933 participants had a median life expectancy of 8 years (IQR 6, 12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables. 43% were randomized to oral anticoagulation (median age 73 years, 36% women). The guideline-endorsed CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the Competing Risk Model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% vs. 5.2%). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model - Competing Risk Model 3-year risk) was -1.2% (42% relative underestimation); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 5.9% (91% relative overestimation). Conclusion: Anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reduced stroke risk. However, anticoagulant benefits were misestimated with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced in patients with the lowest life expectancy and when benefit was estimated over a multi-year horizon.

Frequency and implications of coexistent manifestations of serious illness in older adults with dementia.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, serious illness comprises three manifestations: dementia, activity of daily living (ADL) impairment, and other advanced medical conditions (AMC; e.g., end-stage renal disease). Little is known about how dementia and other manifestations of serious illness co-occur. We aim to describe the prevalence of persons with dementia (PWD) who are living with additional manifestations of serious illness, and the implications on healthcare utilization, Medicare costs, caregiving hours and out-of-pocket expenses. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we use data from the 2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims. We limited inclusion to adults >65 years. Dementia was determined using validated methodology that incorporates functional and cognitive test scores from HRS. We classified PWD as having dementia alone, dementia and an AMC (irrespective of ADL impairment) or dementia and ADL impairment (without an AMC). Healthcare utilization and Medicare costs were measured in claims, caregiving hours and out-of-pocket expenses were self-reported. RESULTS: Most PWD (67%) met criteria for another manifestation of serious illness (24% advanced medical condition, 44% ADL impairment). PWD and an AMC had the highest proportion of hospital use and the highest median total Medicare costs ($17,900 vs. $8962 dementia + ADL impairment vs. $4376 dementia alone). Mean total hours of caregiving per month were similar for PWD and an AMC and PWD and ADL impairment (142.9 and 141.9 h, respectively), while mean hours were much lower for PWD alone (47.7 h). Median out-of-pocket costs were highest for PWD and ADL impairment ($13,261) followed by PWD and an AMC ($10,837) and PWD alone ($7017). CONCLUSIONS: PWD commonly face another manifestation of serious illness. Dementia and ADL impairment was associated with the highest costs for PWD and families while dementia and an AMC was associated with the highest costs for Medicare.