Projected Impact of Nonpharmacologic Management of Stage 1 Hypertension Among Lower-Risk US Adults.

BACKGROUND: The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline classified 31 million US adults as having stage 1 hypertension and recommended clinicians provide counseling on behavioral change to the low-risk portion of this group. However, nationwide reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated health care expenditures achievable by nonpharmacologic therapy remain unquantified. METHODS: We simulated interventions on a target population of US adults aged 35 to 64 years, identified from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with low-risk stage 1 systolic hypertension: that is, untreated systolic blood pressure 130 to 139 mm Hg with diastolic BP <90 mm Hg; no history of CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; and a low 10-year risk of CVD. We used meta-analyses and trials to estimate the effects of population-level behavior modification on systolic blood pressure. We assessed the extent to which restricting intervention to those in regular contact with clinicians might prevent the delivery of nonpharmacologic therapy. RESULTS: Controlling systolic blood pressure to <130 mm Hg among the 8.8 million low-risk US adults with stage 1 hypertension could prevent 26 100 CVD events, avoid 2900 deaths, and save $1.7 billion in total direct health care costs over 10 years. Adoption of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet could prevent 28 000 CVD events. Other nonpharmacologic interventions could avert between 3800 and 19 500 CVD events. However, only 51% of men and 75% of women regularly interacted with clinicians for counseling opportunities. CONCLUSIONS: Among low-risk adults with stage 1 hypertension, substantial benefits to cardiovascular health could be achieved through public policy that promotes the adoption of nonpharmacologic therapy.

The burden of premature coronary heart disease among adults with low socioeconomic status in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The well-established inverse relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) cannot be explained solely by differences in traditional risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To model the role SES plays in the burden of premature CHD in Argentina. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina to project incident CHD events and mortality in low and high-SES Argentinean adults 35 to 64 years of age from 2015 to 2024. Using data from the 2018 National Risk Factor Survey, we defined low SES as not finishing high-school and/or reporting a household income in quintiles 1 or 2. We designed simulations to apportion CHD outcomes in low SES adults to: (1) differences in the prevalence of traditional risk factors between low and high SES adults; (2) nontraditional risk associated with low SES status; (3) preventable events if risk factors were improved to ideal levels; and (4) underlying age- and sex-based risk. RESULTS: 56% of Argentina´s 35- to 64-year-old population has low SES. Both high and low SES groups have poor control of traditional risk factors. Compared with high SES population, low SES population had nearly 2-fold higher rates of incident CHD and CHD deaths per 10 000 person-years (incident CHD: men 80.8 [95%CI 76.6-84.9] vs 42.9 [95%CI 37.4-48.1], women 39.0 [95%CI 36.-41.2] vs 18.6 [95%CI 16.3-20.9]; CHD deaths: men 10.0 [95%CI 9.5-10.5] vs 6.0 [95%CI 5.6-6.4], women 3.2 [95%CI 3.0-3.4] vs 1.8 [95%CI 1.7-1.9]). Nontraditional low SES risk accounts for 73.5% and 70.4% of the event rate gap between SES levels for incident CHD and CHD mortality rates, respectively. DISCUSSION: CHD prevention policies in Argentina should address contextual aspects linked to SES, such as access to education or healthcare, and should also aim to implement known clinical strategies to achieve better control of CHD risk factors in all socioeconomic levels.

Projected Impact of Nonpharmacologic Management of Stage 1 Hypertension Among Lower-Risk US Adults.

Background: The 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines newly classified 31 million US adults as having stage 1 hypertension. The ACC/AHA guidelines recommend behavioral change without pharmacology for the low-risk portion of this group. However, the nationwide reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated healthcare expenditures achievable by evidence-based dietary improvements, sustained weight loss, adequate physical activity, and alcohol moderation remain unquantified. We estimated the effect of systolic BP (SBP) control and behavioral changes on 10-year CVD outcomes and costs. Methods: We used the CVD Policy Model to simulate CVD events, mortality, and healthcare costs among US adults aged 35-64. We simulated interventions on a target population, identified from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with low-risk stage 1 systolic hypertension: defined as untreated SBP 130-139 mmHg and diastolic BP <90 mmHg; no history of CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; and low 10-year risk of CVD. We used published meta-analyses and trials to estimate the effects of behavior modification on SBP. We assessed the extent to which intermittent healthcare utilization or partial uptake of nonpharmacologic therapy would decrease CVD events prevented. Results: Controlling SBP to <130 mmHg among the estimated 8.8 million U.S. adults (51% women) in the target population could prevent 26,100 CVD events, avoid 2,900 deaths, and save $1.6 billion in healthcare costs over 10 years. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet could prevent 16,000 CVD events among men and 12,000 among women over a decade. Other nonpharmacologic interventions could avert between 3,700 and 19,500 CVD events. However, only 5.5 million (61%) of the target population regularly utilized healthcare where recommended clinician counseling could occur. Conclusions: As only two-thirds of U.S. adults with Stage 1 hypertension regularly receive medical care, substantial benefits to cardiovascular health and associated costs may only stem from policies that promote widespread adoption and sustained adherence of nonpharmacologic therapy. Future work should quantify the population-level costs, benefits, and efficacy of improving the food system and local infrastructure on health behavior change.

Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina (CVD Policy Model-Argentina), a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old, to estimate the impact of reducing SSB consumption on diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina during the period 2015-2024, using local demographic and consumption data. Given uncertainty regarding the exact amount of SSBs consumed by different age groups, we modeled 2 estimates of baseline consumption (low and high) under 2 different scenarios: a 10% and a 20% decrease in SSB consumption. We also included a range of caloric compensation in the model (0%, 39%, and 100%). We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around our primary outcome measures for each intervention scenario. Over the 2015-2024 period, a 10% reduction in SSBs with a caloric compensation of 39% is projected to reduce incident diabetes cases by 13,300 (95% UI 10,800-15,600 [low SSB consumption estimate]) to 27,700 cases (95% UI 22,400-32,400 [high SSB consumption estimate]), i.e., 1.7% and 3.6% fewer cases, respectively, compared to a scenario of no change in SSB consumption. It would also reduce myocardial infarctions by 2,500 (95% UI 2,200-2,800) to 5,100 (95% UI 4,500-5,700) events and all-cause deaths by 2,700 (95% UI 2,200-3,200) to 5,600 (95% UI 4,600-6,600) for "low" and "high" estimates of SSB intake, respectively. A 20% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% caloric compensation is projected to result in 26,200 (95% UI 21,200-30,600) to 53,800 (95% UI 43,900-62,700) fewer cases of diabetes, 4,800 (95% UI 4,200-5,300) to 10,000 (95% UI 8,800-11,200) fewer myocardial infarctions, and 5,200 (95% UI 4,300-6,200) to 11,000 (95% UI 9,100-13,100) fewer deaths. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. The main limitations of our study are the limited availability of SSB consumption data in Argentina and the fact that we were only able to model the possible benefits of the interventions for the population older than 34 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our study finds that, even under conservative assumptions, a relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alirocumab: A Just-in-Time Analysis Based on the ODYSSEY Outcomes Trial.

Background: The ODYSSEY Outcomes (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) trial included participants with a recent acute coronary syndrome. Compared with participants receiving statins alone, those receiving a statin plus alirocumab had lower rates of a composite outcome including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and death. Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of alirocumab in these circumstances. Design: Decision analysis using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model. Data Sources: Data sources representative of the United States combined with data from the ODYSSEY Outcomes trial. Target Population: U.S. adults with a recent first MI and a baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 1.81 mmol/L (70 mg/dL) or greater. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: U.S. health system. Intervention: Alirocumab or ezetimibe added to statin therapy. Outcome Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in 2018 U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Compared with a statin alone, the addition of ezetimibe cost $81 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $51 000 to $215 000) per QALY. Compared with a statin alone, the addition of alirocumab cost $308 000 (UI, $197 000 to $678 000) per QALY. Compared with the combination of statin and ezetimibe, replacing ezetimibe with alirocumab cost $997 000 (UI, $254 000 to dominated) per QALY. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: The price of alirocumab would have to decrease from its original cost of $14 560 to $1974 annually to be cost-effective relative to ezetimibe. Limitation: Effectiveness estimates were based on a single randomized trial with a median follow-up of 2.8 years and should not be extrapolated to patients with stable coronary heart disease. Conclusion: The price of alirocumab would have to be reduced considerably to be cost-effective. Because substantial reductions already have occurred, we believe that timely, independent cost-effectiveness analyses can inform clinical and policy discussions of new drugs as they enter the market. Primary Funding Source: University of California, San Francisco, and Institute for Clinical and Economic Review.

Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China.

BACKGROUND: Outdoor air pollution ranks fourth among preventable causes of China's burden of disease. We hypothesized that the magnitude of health gains from air quality improvement in urban China could compare with achieving recommended blood pressure or smoking control goals. METHODS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China projected coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause deaths in urban Chinese adults 35 to 84 years of age from 2017 to 2030 if recent air quality (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm, PM2.5) and traditional cardiovascular risk factor trends continue. We projected life-years gained if urban China were to reach 1 of 3 air quality goals: Beijing Olympic Games level (mean PM2.5, 55 µg/m3), China Class II standard (35 µg/m3), or World Health Organization standard (10 µg/m3). We compared projected air pollution reduction control benefits with potential benefits of reaching World Health Organization hypertension and tobacco control goals. RESULTS: Mean PM2.5 reduction to Beijing Olympic levels by 2030 would gain ≈241,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 189 000-293 000) life-years annually. Achieving either the China Class II or World Health Organization PM2.5 standard would yield greater health benefits (992 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 790 000-1 180 000] or 1 827 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 1 481 00-2 129 000] annual life-years gained, respectively) than World Health Organization-recommended goals of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% reduction in smoking combined (928 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 830 000-1 033 000] life-years). CONCLUSIONS: Air quality improvement in different scenarios could lead to graded health benefits ranging from 241 000 life-years gained to much greater benefits equal to or greater than the combined benefits of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% smoking reduction.

Evaluating the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Use Guidelines for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Statins are effective in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline expands recommended statin use, but its cost-effectiveness has not been compared with other guidelines. METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ACC/AHA guideline relative to current use, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and universal statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age over a 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025. Sensitivity analyses varied costs, risks, and benefits. Main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and numbers needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: Each approach produces substantial benefits and net cost savings relative to the status quo. Full adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline would result in 8.8 million more statin users than the status quo, at a number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 35. The ACC/AHA guideline would potentially result in up to 12.3 million more statin users than the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 68. Moderate-intensity statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age would result in 28.9 million more statin users than the ACC/AHA guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 108. In all cases, benefits would be greater in men than women. Results vary moderately with different risk thresholds for instituting statins and statin toxicity estimates but depend greatly on the disutility caused by daily medication use (pill burden). CONCLUSIONS: At a population level, the ACC/AHA guideline for expanded statin use for primary prevention is projected to treat more people, to save more lives, and to cost less compared with Adult Treatment Panel III in both men and women. Whether individuals benefit from long-term statin use for primary prevention depends more on the disutility associated with pill burden than their degree of cardiovascular risk.

Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events occurred in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 y). This study's strengths include the use of an established mathematical model of CVD and use of contemporary Mexican vital statistics, data from health surveys, healthcare costs, and SSB price elasticity estimates as well as probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty. The limitations of the study include reliance on US-based studies for certain inputs where Mexico-specific data were lacking (specifically the associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes [from the Framingham Heart Study] and SSB calorie compensation assumptions), limited data on healthcare costs other than those related to diabetes, and lack of information on long-term SSB price elasticity that is specific to geographic and economic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico's high diabetes prevalence represents a public health crisis. While the long-term impact of Mexico's SSB tax is not yet known, these projections, based on observed consumption reductions, suggest that Mexico's SSB tax may substantially decrease morbidity and mortality from diabetes and CVD while reducing healthcare costs.

Cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 Inhibitor Therapy in Patients With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia or Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

IMPORTANCE: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were recently approved for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and have potential for broad ASCVD prevention. Their long-term cost-effectiveness and effect on total health care spending are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors and their potential effect on US health care spending. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a simulation model of US adults aged 35 to 94 years, was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors or ezetimibe in heterozygous FH or ASCVD. The model incorporated 2015 annual PCSK9 inhibitor costs of $14,350 (based on mean wholesale acquisition costs of evolocumab and alirocumab); adopted a health-system perspective, lifetime horizon; and included probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainty. EXPOSURES: Statin therapy compared with addition of ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Lifetime major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or stroke), incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and total effect on US health care spending over 5 years. RESULTS: Adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins in heterozygous FH was estimated to prevent 316,300 MACE at a cost of $503,000 per QALY gained compared with adding ezetimibe to statins (80% uncertainty interval [UI], $493,000-$1,737,000). In ASCVD, adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins was estimated to prevent 4.3 million MACE compared with adding ezetimibe at $414,000 per QALY (80% UI, $277,000-$1,539,000). Reducing annual drug costs to $4536 per patient or less would be needed for PCSK9 inhibitors to be cost-effective at less than $100,000 per QALY. At 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in all eligible patients was estimated to reduce cardiovascular care costs by $29 billion over 5 years, but drug costs increased by an estimated $592 billion (a 38% increase over 2015 prescription drug expenditures). In contrast, initiating statins in these high-risk populations in all statin-tolerant individuals who are not currently using statins was estimated to save $12 billion. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Assuming 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in patients with heterozygous FH or ASCVD did not meet generally acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds and was estimated to increase US health care costs substantially. Reducing annual drug prices from more than $14,000 to $4536 would be necessary to meet a $100,000 per QALY threshold.

Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Conservative or Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment Guidelines in Adults Aged 35-74 Years: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model.

The population health effect and cost-effectiveness of implementing intensive blood pressure goals in high-cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk adults have not been described. Using the CVD Policy Model, CVD events, treatment costs, quality-adjusted life years, and drug and monitoring costs were simulated over 2016 to 2026 for hypertensive patients aged 35 to 74 years. We projected the effectiveness and costs of hypertension treatment according to the 2003 Joint National Committee (JNC)-7 or 2014 JNC8 guidelines, and then for adults aged ≥50 years, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of adding an intensive goal of systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg for patients with CVD, chronic kidney disease, or 10-year CVD risk ≥15%. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <$50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained were considered cost-effective. JNC7 strategies treat more patients and are more costly to implement compared with JNC8 strategies. Adding intensive systolic blood pressure goals for high-risk patients prevents an estimated 43 000 and 35 000 annual CVD events incremental to JNC8 and JNC7, respectively. Intensive strategies save costs in men and are cost-effective in women compared with JNC8 alone. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained, JNC8+intensive had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in women (82%) and JNC7+intensive the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in men (100%). Assuming higher drug and monitoring costs, adding intensive goals for high-risk patients remained consistently cost-effective in men, but not always in women. Among patients aged 35 to 74 years, adding intensive blood pressure goals for high-risk groups to current national hypertension treatment guidelines prevents additional CVD deaths while saving costs provided that medication costs are controlled.

Gait Speed as a Guide for Blood Pressure Targets in Older Adults: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential for gait speed to inform decisions regarding optimal systolic blood pressure targets in older adults. DESIGN: Forecasting study from 2014 to 2023 using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a Markov model. SETTING: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. PARTICIPANTS: U.S. adults aged 60-94 stratified into fast walking, slow walking, and poor functioning (noncompleters) based on measured gait speed. MEASUREMENTS: Lowering SBP to a target of 140 or 150 mmHg was modeled in persons with (secondary prevention) and without (primary prevention) a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. Based on clinical trials and observational studies, it was projected that slow-walking and poor-functioning participants would have greater noncardiovascular mortality. Myocardial infarctions (MIs), strokes, deaths, cost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were measured. RESULTS: Regardless of gait speed, it was projected that secondary prevention to a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg would prevent more events and save more money than secondary prevention to 150 mmHg. Similarly, primary prevention to 140 mmHg in fast-walking adults was projected to prevent events and save money. In slow-walking adults, primary prevention to 150 mmHg was projected to prevent MIs and strokes and save DALYs but was cost saving only in men; intensification to 140 mmHg is of uncertain benefit in slow-walking individuals. Primary prevention in poor-functioning adults to a target of 140 or 150 mmHg SBP is projected to decrease DALYs. CONCLUSION: The most cost-effective SBP target varies according to history of cardiovascular disease and gait speed in persons aged 60-94. These projections highlight the need for better estimates of the benefits and harms of antihypertensive medications in a diverse group of older adults, because the net benefit is sensitive to the characteristics of the population treated.

Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Treatment in Non-Hispanic Blacks and Whites According to 2014 Guidelines: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: We compared the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites according to 2014 US hypertension treatment guidelines. METHODS: The cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model simulated CVD events, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and treatment costs in 35- to 74-year-old adults with untreated hypertension. CVD incidence, mortality, and risk factor levels were obtained from cohort studies, hospital registries, vital statistics, and national surveys. Stage 1 hypertension was defined as blood pressure 140-149/90-99mm Hg; stage 2 hypertension as ≥150/100mm Hg. Probabilistic input distribution sampling informed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) < $50,000/QALY gained were considered cost-effective. RESULTS: Treating 0.7 million hypertensive non-Hispanic black adults would prevent about 8,000 CVD events annually; treating 3.4 million non-Hispanic whites would prevent about 35,000 events. Overall 2014 guideline implementation would be cost saving in both groups compared with no treatment. For stage 1 hypertension but without diabetes or chronic kidney disease, cost savings extended to non-Hispanic black males ages 35-44 but not same-aged non-Hispanic white males (ICER $57,000/QALY; 95% UI $15,000-$100,000) and cost-effectiveness extended to non-Hispanic black females ages 35-44 (ICER $46,000/QALY; $17,000-$76,000) but not same-aged non-Hispanic white females (ICER $181,000/QALY; $111,000-$235,000). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with non-Hispanic whites, cost-effectiveness of implementing hypertension guidelines would extend to a larger proportion of non-Hispanic black hypertensive patients.

Projected Impact of Salt Restriction on Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in China: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of achieving China's national goals for dietary salt (NaCl) reduction or implementing culturally-tailored dietary salt restriction strategies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. METHODS: The CVD Policy Model was used to project blood pressure lowering and subsequent downstream prevented CVD that could be achieved by population-wide salt restriction in China. Outcomes were annual CVD events prevented, relative reductions in rates of CVD incidence and mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and CVD treatment costs saved. RESULTS: Reducing mean dietary salt intake to 9.0 g/day gradually over 10 years could prevent approximately 197 000 incident annual CVD events [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 173 000-219 000], reduce annual CVD mortality by approximately 2.5% (2.2-2.8%), gain 303 000 annual QALYs (278 000-329 000), and save approximately 1.4 billion international dollars (Int$) in annual CVD costs (Int$; 1.2-1.6 billion). Reducing mean salt intake to 6.0 g/day could approximately double these benefits. Implementing cooking salt-restriction spoons could prevent 183 000 fewer incident CVD cases (153 000-215 000) and avoid Int$1.4 billion in CVD treatment costs annually (1.2-1.7 billion). Implementing a cooking salt substitute strategy could lead to approximately three times the health benefits of the salt-restriction spoon program. More than three-quarters of benefits from any dietary salt reduction strategy would be realized in hypertensive adults. CONCLUSION: China could derive substantial health gains from implementation of population-wide dietary salt reduction policies. Most health benefits from any dietary salt reduction program would be realized in adults with hypertension.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Cost Essential Antihypertensive Medicines for Hypertension Control in China: A Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is China's leading cardiovascular disease risk factor. Improved hypertension control in China would result in result in enormous health gains in the world's largest population. A computer simulation model projected the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in Chinese adults, assuming a range of essential medicines list drug costs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China, a Markov-style computer simulation model, simulated hypertension screening, essential medicines program implementation, hypertension control program administration, drug treatment and monitoring costs, disease-related costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by preventing cardiovascular disease or lost because of drug side effects in untreated hypertensive adults aged 35-84 y over 2015-2025. Cost-effectiveness was assessed in cardiovascular disease patients (secondary prevention) and for two blood pressure ranges in primary prevention (stage one, 140-159/90-99 mm Hg; stage two, ≥160/≥100 mm Hg). Treatment of isolated systolic hypertension and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension were modeled as a reduction in systolic blood pressure; treatment of isolated diastolic hypertension was modeled as a reduction in diastolic blood pressure. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored ranges of antihypertensive drug effectiveness and costs, monitoring frequency, medication adherence, side effect severity, background hypertension prevalence, antihypertensive medication treatment, case fatality, incidence and prevalence, and cardiovascular disease treatment costs. Median antihypertensive costs from Shanghai and Yunnan province were entered into the model in order to estimate the effects of very low and high drug prices. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than the per capita gross domestic product of China (11,900 international dollars [Int$] in 2015) were considered cost-effective. Treating hypertensive adults with prior cardiovascular disease for secondary prevention was projected to be cost saving in the main simulation and 100% of probabilistic simulation results. Treating all hypertension for primary and secondary prevention would prevent about 800,000 cardiovascular disease events annually (95% uncertainty interval, 0.6 to 1.0 million) and was borderline cost-effective incremental to treating only cardiovascular disease and stage two patients (2015 Int$13,000 per QALY gained [95% uncertainty interval, Int$10,000 to Int$18,000]). Of all one-way sensitivity analyses, assuming adherence to taking medications as low as 25%, high Shanghai drug costs, or low medication efficacy led to the most unfavorable results (treating all hypertension, about Int$47,000, Int$37,000, and Int$27,000 per QALY were gained, respectively). The strengths of this study were the use of a recent Chinese national health survey, vital statistics, health care costs, and cohort study outcomes data as model inputs and reliance on clinical-trial-based estimates of coronary heart disease and stroke risk reduction due to antihypertensive medication treatment. The limitations of the study were the use of several sources of data, limited clinical trial evidence for medication effectiveness and harms in the youngest and oldest age groups, lack of information about geographic and ethnic subgroups, lack of specific information about indirect costs borne by patients, and uncertainty about the future epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in China. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded hypertension treatment has the potential to prevent about 800,000 cardiovascular disease events annually and be borderline cost-effective in China, provided low-cost essential antihypertensive medicines programs can be implemented.

Cost-effectiveness and population impact of statins for primary prevention in adults aged 75 years or older in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Evidence to guide primary prevention in adults aged 75 years or older is limited. OBJECTIVE: To project the population impact and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in adults aged 75 years or older. DESIGN: Forecasting study using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Trial, cohort, and nationally representative data sources. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. adults aged 75 to 94 years. TIME HORIZON: 10 years. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: Statins for primary prevention based on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol threshold of 4.91 mmol/L (190 mg/dL), 4.14 mmol/L (160 mg/dL), or 3.36 mmol/L (130 mg/dL); presence of diabetes; or 10-year risk score of at least 7.5%. OUTCOME MEASURES: Myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD) death, disability-adjusted life-years, and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: All adults aged 75 years or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey have a 10-year risk score greater than 7.5%. If statins had no effect on functional limitation or cognitive impairment, all primary prevention strategies would prevent MIs and CHD deaths and be cost-effective. Treatment of all adults aged 75 to 94 years would result in 8 million additional users and prevent 105 000 (4.3%) incident MIs and 68 000 (2.3%) CHD deaths at an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year of $25 200. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: An increased relative risk for functional limitation or mild cognitive impairment of 1.10 to 1.29 could offset the cardiovascular benefits. LIMITATION: Limited trial evidence targeting primary prevention in adults aged 75 years or older. CONCLUSION: At effectiveness similar to that in trials, statins are projected to be cost-effective for primary prevention; however, even a small increase in geriatric-specific adverse effects could offset the cardiovascular benefit. Improved data on the potential benefits and harms of statins are needed to inform decision making. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American Heart Association Western States Affiliate, National Institute on Aging, and the National Institute for Diabetes on Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Simulating Strategies for Improving Control of Hypertension Among Patients with Usual Source of Care in the United States: The Blood Pressure Control Model.

BACKGROUND: Only half of hypertensive adults achieve blood pressure (BP) control in the United States, and it is unclear how BP control rates may be improved most effectively and efficiently at the population level. OBJECTIVE: We sought to compare the potential effects of system-wide isolated improvements in medication adherence, visit frequency, and higher physician prescription rate on achieving BP control at 52 weeks. DESIGN: We developed a Markov microsimulation model of patient-level, physician-level, and system-level processes involved in controlling hypertension with medications. The model is informed by data from national surveys, cohort studies and trials, and was validated against two multicenter clinical trials (ALLHAT and VALUE). SUBJECTS: We studied a simulated, nationally representative cohort of patients with diagnosed but uncontrolled hypertension with a usual source of care. INTERVENTIONS: We simulated a base case and improvements of 10 and 50%, and an ideal scenario for three modifiable parameters: visit frequency, treatment intensification, and medication adherence. Ideal scenarios were defined as 100% for treatment intensification and adherence, and return visits occurring within 4 weeks of an elevated office systolic BP. MAIN OUTCOME: BP control at 52 weeks of follow-up was examined. RESULTS: Among 25,000 hypothetical adult patients with uncontrolled hypertension (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg), only 18% achieved BP control after 52 weeks using base-case assumptions. With 10/50%/idealized enhancements in each isolated parameter, enhanced treatment intensification achieved the greatest BP control (19/23/71%), compared with enhanced visit frequency (19/21/35%) and medication adherence (19/23/26%). When all three processes were idealized, the model predicted a BP control rate of 95% at 52 weeks. CONCLUSION: Substantial improvements in BP control can only be achieved through major improvements in processes of care. Healthcare systems may achieve greater success by increasing the frequency of clinical encounters and improving physicians' prescribing behavior than by attempting to improve patient adherence to medications.

Cost-effectiveness of hypertension therapy according to 2014 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: On the basis of the 2014 guidelines for hypertension therapy in the United States, many eligible adults remain untreated. We projected the cost-effectiveness of treating hypertension in U.S. adults according to the 2014 guidelines. METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to simulate drug-treatment and monitoring costs, costs averted for the treatment of cardiovascular disease, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained by treating previously untreated adults between the ages of 35 and 74 years from 2014 through 2024. We assessed cost-effectiveness according to age, hypertension level, and the presence or absence of chronic kidney disease or diabetes. RESULTS: The full implementation of the new hypertension guidelines would result in approximately 56,000 fewer cardiovascular events and 13,000 fewer deaths from cardiovascular causes annually, which would result in overall cost savings. The projections showed that the treatment of patients with existing cardiovascular disease or stage 2 hypertension would save lives and costs for men between the ages of 35 and 74 years and for women between the ages of 45 and 74 years. The treatment of men or women with existing cardiovascular disease or men with stage 2 hypertension but without cardiovascular disease would remain cost-saving even if strategies to increase medication adherence doubled treatment costs. The treatment of stage 1 hypertension was cost-effective (defined as <$50,000 per QALY) for all men and for women between the ages of 45 and 74 years, whereas treating women between the ages of 35 and 44 years with stage 1 hypertension but without cardiovascular disease had intermediate or low cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the 2014 hypertension guidelines for U.S. adults between the ages of 35 and 74 years could potentially prevent about 56,000 cardiovascular events and 13,000 deaths annually, while saving costs. Controlling hypertension in all patients with cardiovascular disease or stage 2 hypertension could be effective and cost-saving. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others.).

Cost-effectiveness of optimal use of acute myocardial infarction treatments and impact on coronary heart disease mortality in China.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of the optimal use of hospital-based acute myocardial infarction (AMI) treatments and their potential impact on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China is not well known. METHODS AND RESULTS: The effectiveness and costs of optimal use of hospital-based AMI treatments were estimated by the CHD Policy Model-China, a Markov-style computer simulation model. Changes in simulated AMI, CHD mortality, quality-adjusted life years, and total healthcare costs were the outcomes. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to assess projected cost-effectiveness. Optimal use of 4 oral drugs (aspirin, ß-blockers, statins, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors) in all eligible patients with AMI or unfractionated heparin in non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction was a highly cost-effective strategy (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios approximately US $3100 or less). Optimal use of reperfusion therapies in eligible patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction was moderately cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ≤$10,700). Optimal use of clopidogrel for all eligible patients with AMI or primary percutaneous coronary intervention among high-risk patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction in tertiary hospitals alone was less cost effective. Use of all the selected hospital-based AMI treatment strategies together would be cost-effective and reduce the total CHD mortality rate in China by ≈9.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal use of most standard hospital-based AMI treatment strategies, especially combined strategies, would be cost effective in China. However, because so many AMI deaths occur outside of the hospital in China, the overall impact on preventing CHD deaths was projected to be modest.