Current and future water balance of a mountain subcatchment of Issyk-Kul Lake, Tien Shan range, Kyrgyzstan.

Snow and ice dominated basins are particularly vulnerable to climate change but estimating their hydrological balance remains challenging in data-scarce regions like the Tien Shan mountains. With the overall aim of modeling of the large Issyk-Kul Lake basin in Kyrgyzstan, this article focuses on the hydrological balance of the Chon Kyzyl-Suu basin, a representative sub-catchment of the lake basin. The study involved two steps: first, calibration/validation of a distributed hydrological snow model, second, assessment of future trends in runoff, evaporation, snow melt and glacier melt under different climate scenarios. Our results show that the balance of the basin is already upset due to glacier mass loss and that groundwater processes play a significant role in generating discharge. Climate projections for the next 40 years (2020-2060) show no significant trend in precipitation under scenario ssp2-4.5 but an 8.9 % decrease in precipitation under scenario ssp5-8.5. at the same time, air temperature will increase by 0.4 °C under scenario ssp2-4.5, and by 1.8 °C under scenario ssp5-8.5. Under the "business as usual" scenario (ssp2-4.5), the annual river flow of the headwater basins should increase by 13 %, or under the "pessimistic" ssp5-8.5 scenario, by 28 %, mainly due to the increase in glacier runoff. These results make it possible to envisage realistic modeling at the scale of the lake at a daily time step.

Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage.

Climate change and human activities increasingly threaten lakes that store 87% of Earth's liquid surface fresh water. Yet, recent trends and drivers of lake volume change remain largely unknown globally. Here, we analyze the 1972 largest global lakes using three decades of satellite observations, climate data, and hydrologic models, finding statistically significant storage declines for 53% of these water bodies over the period 1992-2020. The net volume loss in natural lakes is largely attributable to climate warming, increasing evaporative demand, and human water consumption, whereas sedimentation dominates storage losses in reservoirs. We estimate that roughly one-quarter of the world's population resides in a basin of a drying lake, underscoring the necessity of incorporating climate change and sedimentation impacts into sustainable water resources management.

Satellite-derived multivariate world-wide lake physical variable timeseries for climate studies.

A consistent dataset of lake surface water temperature, ice cover, water-leaving reflectance, water level and extent is presented. The collection constitutes the Lakes Essential Climate Variable (ECV) for inland waters. The data span combined satellite observations from 1992 to 2020 inclusive and quantifies over 2000 relatively large lakes, which represent a small fraction of the number of lakes worldwide but a significant fraction of global freshwater surface. Visible and near-infrared optical imagery, thermal imagery and microwave radar data from satellites have been exploited. All observations are provided in a common grid at 1/120° latitude-longitude resolution, jointly in daily files. The data/algorithms have been validated against in situ measurements where possible. Consistency analysis between the variables has guided the development of the joint dataset. It is the most complete collection of consistent satellite observations of the Lakes ECV currently available. Lakes are of significant interest to scientific disciplines such as hydrology, limnology, climatology, biogeochemistry and geodesy. They are a vital resource for freshwater supply, and key sentinels for global environmental change.

Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water variations in response to rainfall fluctuations under recent climate conditions (2000-2020).

Monitoring the evolution of the Sahelian environment is a major challenge because the great Sahelian droughts, marked by significant environmental consequences and social impacts, contributed, for example, to the drying up of Lake Chad. We combined remote sensing images with a water level database from the Hydroweb project to determine the response of Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water variations to rainfall fluctuations in the Lake Chad watershed under recent climate conditions. The variance in lake surface water levels was determined by computing the monthly anomaly time series of surface water height and area from the Hydroweb datasets. The spatiotemporal variability of watershed rainfall and vegetation cover of Lake Chad was highlighted through multivariate statistical analysis. The spatial distribution of correlations between watershed rainfall and Lake Chad vegetation cover was investigated. The results show an increase in watershed rainfall, vegetation cover, and surface water area and height, as their slopes were all positive i.e., 5.1 10-4 (mm/day); 4.26 10-6 (ndvi unit/day); 1.2 10-3 (km2/day) and 6 10-5 (m/day), respectively. The rainfall variations in the watershed drive those of Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water, as the rainfall trend was strongly and positively correlated with those of vegetation cover (0.79), surface water height (0.57), and area (0.53). The time lag between the watershed rainfall fluctuations and lake surface water variations corresponded to approximately ∼112 days. Between rainfall variations and vegetation cover changes, the spatial distribution of the time lag showed a response time of <16 days in the western shores of the lake and on both sides of the great barrier, about 16 days in the bare soils of the northern basin and the eastern part of the south basin, and >64 days in the marshlands of the southern basin. For the analysis of lakes around the world, this research provides a robust method that computes the spatiotemporal variances of their trends and seasonality and correlates these with the spatiotemporal variances of climate changes. The correlations obtained have strong potential for predicting future changes in lake surface water worldwide.

Water Resources in Africa under Global Change: Monitoring Surface Waters from Space.

Abstract: The African continent hosts some of the largest freshwater systems worldwide, characterized by a large distribution and variability of surface waters that play a key role in the water, energy and carbon cycles and are of major importance to the global climate and water resources. Freshwater availability in Africa has now become of major concern under the combined effect of climate change, environmental alterations and anthropogenic pressure. However, the hydrology of the African river basins remains one of the least studied worldwide and a better monitoring and understanding of the hydrological processes across the continent become fundamental. Earth Observation, that offers a cost-effective means for monitoring the terrestrial water cycle, plays a major role in supporting surface hydrology investigations. Remote sensing advances are therefore a game changer to develop comprehensive observing systems to monitor Africa's land water and manage its water resources. Here, we review the achievements of more than three decades of advances using remote sensing to study surface waters in Africa, highlighting the current benefits and difficulties. We show how the availability of a large number of sensors and observations, coupled with models, offers new possibilities to monitor a continent with scarce gauged stations. In the context of upcoming satellite missions dedicated to surface hydrology, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), we discuss future opportunities and how the use of remote sensing could benefit scientific and societal applications, such as water resource management, flood risk prevention and environment monitoring under current global change. Article Highlights: The hydrology of African surface water is of global importance, yet it remains poorly monitored and understoodComprehensive review of remote sensing and modeling advances to monitor Africa's surface water and water resourcesFuture opportunities with upcoming satellite missions and to translate scientific advances into societal applications.

Comprehensive estimation of lake volume changes on the Tibetan Plateau during 1976-2019 and basin-wide glacier contribution.

Volume changes and water balances of the lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are spatially heterogeneous and the lake-basin scale drivers remain unclear. In this study, we comprehensively estimated water volume changes for 1132 lakes larger than 1 km2 and determined the glacier contribution to lake volume change at basin-wide scale using satellite stereo and multispectral images. Overall, the water mass stored in the lakes increased by 169.7 ± 15.1 Gt (3.9 ± 0.4 Gt yr-1) between 1976 and 2019, mainly in the Inner-TP (157.6 ± 11.6 or 3.7 ± 0.3 Gt yr-1). A substantial increase in mass occurred between 1995 and 2019 (214.9 ± 12.7 Gt or 9.0 ± 0.5 Gt yr-1), following a period of decrease (-45.2 ± 8.2 Gt or -2.4 ± 0.4 Gt yr-1) prior to 1995. A slowdown in the rate of water mass increase occurred between 2010 and 2015 (23.1 ± 6.5 Gt or 4.6 ± 1.3 Gt yr-1), followed again by a high value between 2015 and 2019 (65.7 ± 6.7 Gt or 16.4 ± 1.7 Gt yr-1). The increased lake-water mass occurred predominately in glacier-fed lakes (127.1 ± 14.3 Gt) in contrast to non-glacier-fed lakes (42.6 ± 4.9 Gt), and in endorheic lakes (161.9 ± 14.0 Gt) against exorheic lakes (7.8 ± 5.8 Gt) over 1976-2019. Endorheic and glacier-fed lakes showed strongly contrasting patterns with a remarkable storage increase in the northern TP and slight decrease in the southern TP. The ratio of excess glacier meltwater runoff to lake volume increase between 2000 and ~2019 was less than 30% for the entire Inner-TP based on several independent data sets. Among individual lake-basins, 14 showed a glacier contribution to lake volume increase of 0.3% to 29.1%. The other eight basins exhibited a greater glacier contribution of 116% to 436%, which could be explained by decreased net precipitation. The lake volume change and basin scale glacier contribution reveal that the enhanced precipitation predominantly drives lake volume increase but it is spatially heterogeneous.

The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change.

Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.