Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and associated factors vary substantially across states. While public health agencies must choose how to deploy resources to combat TB and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), state-level modeling analyses to inform policy decisions have not been widely available. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of TB epidemiology linked to a web-based user interface - Tabby2. The model is calibrated to epidemiological and demographic data for the United States, each U.S. state, and the District of Columbia. Users can simulate pre-defined scenarios describing approaches to TB prevention and treatment or create their own intervention scenarios. Location-specific results for epidemiological outcomes, service utilization, costs, and cost-effectiveness are reported as downloadable tables and customizable visualizations. To demonstrate the tool's functionality, we projected trends in TB outcomes without additional intervention for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We further undertook a case study of expanded treatment of LTBI among non-U.S.-born individuals in Massachusetts, covering 10% of the target population annually over 2025-2029. RESULTS: Between 2022 and 2050, TB incidence rates were projected to decline in all states and the District of Columbia. Incidence projections for the year 2050 ranged from 0.03 to 3.8 cases (median 0.95) per 100,000 persons. By 2050, we project that majority (> 50%) of TB will be diagnosed among non-U.S.-born persons in 46 states and the District of Columbia; per state percentages range from 17.4% to 96.7% (median 83.0%). In Massachusetts, expanded testing and treatment for LTBI in this population was projected to reduce cumulative TB cases between 2025 and 2050 by 6.3% and TB-related deaths by 8.4%, relative to base case projections. This intervention had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $180,951 (2020 USD) per quality-adjusted life year gained from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: Tabby2 allows users to estimate the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of different TB prevention approaches for multiple geographic areas in the United States. Expanded testing and treatment for LTBI could accelerate declines in TB incidence in the United States, as demonstrated in the Massachusetts case study.

Patterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Since 2014, multiple outbreaks of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among people who inject drugs have occurred across the United States along with hepatitis C virus (HCV), skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs), and infective endocarditis (IE), creating a converging public health crisis. METHODS: We analyzed the temporal patterns of infectious disease and overdose using a hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag logistic regression model examining the probability that a given geographic area experienced at least 1 HIV case in a given month as a function of the counts/rates of overdose, HCV, SSTI, and IE and associated medical procedures at different lagged time periods. RESULTS: Current-month HIV is associated with increasing HCV cases, abscess incision and drainage, and SSTI cases, in distinct temporal patterns. For example, 1 additional HCV case occurring 5 and 7 months previously is associated with a 4% increase in the odds of observing at least 1 current-month HIV case in a given locale (odds ratios, 1.04 [90% credible interval {CrI}: 1.01-1.10] and 1.04 [90% CrI: 1.00-1.09]). No such associations were observed for echocardiograms, IE, or overdose. CONCLUSIONS: Lagged associations in other infections preceding rises in current-month HIV counts cannot be described as predictive of HIV outbreaks but may point toward newly discovered epidemics of injection drug use and associated clinical sequalae, prompting clinicians to screen patients more carefully for substance use disorder and associated infections.

An outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs in northeastern Massachusetts: findings and lessons learned from a medical record review.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a medical record review for healthcare utilization, risk factors, and clinical data among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Massachusetts to aid HIV outbreak response decision-making and strengthen public health practice. SETTING: Two large community health centers (CHCs) that provide HIV and related services in northeastern Massachusetts. METHODS: Between May and July 2018, we reviewed medical records for 88 people with HIV (PWH) connected to the outbreak. The review period included care received from May 1, 2016, through the date of review. Surveillance data were used to establish date of HIV diagnosis and assess viral suppression. RESULTS: Sixty-nine (78%) people had HIV infection diagnosed during the review period, including 10 acute infections. Persons had a median of 3 primary care visits after HIV diagnosis and zero before diagnosis. During the review period, 72% reported active drug or alcohol use, 62% were prescribed medication assisted treatment, and 41% were prescribed antidepressants. The majority (68, 77%) had a documented ART prescription. HIV viral suppression at < 200 copies/mL was more frequent (73%) than the overall across the State (65%); it did not correlate with any of the sociodemographic characteristics studied in our population. Over half (57%) had been hospitalized at least once during the review period, and 36% had a bacterial infection at hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Medical record review with a field investigation of an outbreak provided data about patterns of health care utilization and comorbidities not available from routine HIV surveillance or case interviews. Integration of HIV screening with treatment for HIV and SUD can strengthen prevention and care services for PWID in northeastern Massachusetts.

Geographic Associations Between Social Factors and SARS-CoV-2 Testing Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic, February-June 2020, Massachusetts.

OBJECTIVES: Widespread SARS-CoV-2 testing is critical to identify infected people and implement public health action to interrupt transmission. With SARS-CoV-2 testing supplies and laboratory capacity now widely available in the United States, understanding the spatial heterogeneity of associations between social determinants and the use of SARS-CoV-2 testing is essential to improve testing availability in populations disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We assessed positive and negative results of SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests conducted from February 1 through June 17, 2020, from the Massachusetts Virtual Epidemiologic Network, an integrated web-based surveillance and case management system in Massachusetts. Using geographically weighted regression and Moran's I spatial autocorrelation tests, we quantified the associations between SARS-CoV-2 testing rates and 11 metrics of the Social Vulnerability Index in all 351 towns in Massachusetts. RESULTS: Median SARS-CoV-2 testing rates decreased with increasing percentages of residents with limited English proficiency (median relative risk [interquartile range] = 0.96 [0.95-0.99]), residents aged ≥65 (0.97 [0.87-0.98]), residents without health insurance (0.96 [0.95-1.04], and people residing in crowded housing conditions (0.89 [0.80-0.94]). These associations differed spatially across Massachusetts, and localized models improved the explainable variation in SARS-CoV-2 testing rates by 8% to 12%. CONCLUSION: Indicators of social vulnerability are associated with variations in SARS-CoV-2 testing rates. Accounting for the spatial heterogeneity in these associations may improve the ability to explain and address the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at substate levels.

The Dynamics of Infectious Diseases Associated With Injection Drug Use in Lawrence and Lowell, Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: There are a wide variety of infectious complications of injection drug use. Understanding the trajectory of these complications might inform the development of an early warning system for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks that occur regularly among people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A distributed lag Poisson regression model in the Bayesian setting was used to examine temporal patterns in the incidence of injection-associated infectious diseases and their association with HIV cases in Lawrence and Lowell, Massachusetts between 2005 and 2018. RESULTS: Current-month HIV counts are associated with fatal overdoses approximately 8 months prior, cases of infective endocarditis 10 months prior, and cases of skin and soft tissue infections and incision and drainage procedures associated with these infections 12 months prior. CONCLUSIONS: Collecting data on these other complications associated with injection drug use by public health departments may be important to consider because these complications may serve as input to a sentinel system to trigger early intervention and avert potential outbreaks of HIV.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Outbreak Investigation Among Persons Who Inject Drugs in Massachusetts Enhanced by HIV Sequence Data.

BACKGROUND: The Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated to characterize a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak in northeastern Massachusetts and prevent further transmission. We determined the contributions of HIV sequence data to defining the outbreak. METHODS: Human immunodeficiency virus surveillance and partner services data were analyzed to understand social and molecular links within the outbreak. Cases were defined as HIV infections diagnosed during 2015-2018 among people who inject drugs with connections to northeastern Massachusetts or HIV infections among other persons named as partners of a case or whose HIV polymerase sequence linked to another case, regardless of diagnosis date or geography. RESULTS: Of 184 cases, 65 (35%) were first identified as part of the outbreak through molecular analysis. Twenty-nine cases outside of northeastern Massachusetts were molecularly linked to the outbreak. Large molecular clusters (75, 28, and 11 persons) were identified. Among 161 named partners, 106 had HIV; of those, 40 (38%) diagnoses occurred through partner services. CONCLUSIONS: Human immunodeficiency virus sequence data increased the case count by 55% and expanded the geographic scope of the outbreak. Human immunodeficiency virus sequence and partner services data each identified cases that the other method would not have, maximizing prevention and care opportunities for HIV-infected persons and their partners.

Leveraging Health Department Capacities, Partnerships, and Health Insurance for Infectious Disease Response in Massachusetts, 2014-2018.

Policies facilitating integration of public health programs can improve the public health response, but the literature on approaches to integration across multiple system levels is limited. We describe the efforts of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health to integrate its HIV, viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted infection (STI), and tuberculosis response through policies that mandated contracted organizations to submit specimens for testing to the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory; co-test blood specimens for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and syphilis; integrate HIV, viral hepatitis, and STI disease surveillance and case management in a single data system; and implement an integrated infectious disease drug assistance program. From 2014 through 2018, the number of tests performed by the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory increased from 16 321 to 33 674 for HIV, from 11 054 to 33 670 for HCV, and from 19 169 to 30 830 for syphilis. Service contracts enabled rapid response to outbreaks of HIV, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B. Key challenges included lack of a billing infrastructure at the Massachusetts State Public Health Laboratory; the need to complete negotiations with insurers and to establish a retained revenue account to receive health insurance reimbursements for testing services; and time to train testing providers in phlebotomy for required testing. Investing in laboratory infrastructure; creating billing mechanisms to maximize health insurance reimbursement; proactively engaging providers, community members, and other stakeholders; and building capacity to transform practices are needed. Using multilevel policy approaches to integrate the public health response to HIV, STI, viral hepatitis, and tuberculosis is feasible and adaptable to other public health programs.

Provision of STD Services in Community Settings After the Loss and Return of State Funding to Support Service Provision: Observations From Select Providers in Massachusetts, 2010 and 2013.

CONTEXT: In 2008, the $1.2 M sexually transmitted disease (STD) services line item supporting STD clinical services by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health was eliminated, forcing the cessation of all state-supported STD service delivery. OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact on community provision of STD services after the elimination of state funds supporting STD service provision. DESIGN AND SETTING: Rapid ethnographic assessments were conducted in May 2010 and September 2013 to better understand the impact of budget cuts on STD services in Massachusetts. The rapid ethnographic assessment teams identified key informants through Massachusetts's STD and human immunodeficiency virus programs. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty providers/clinic administrators in 19 sites (15 unique) participated in a semistructured interview (community health centers [n = 10; 53%], hospitals [n = 4; 21%], and other clinical settings [n = 5; 26%]). RESULTS: Results clustered under 3 themes: financial stability of agencies/clinics, the role insurance played in the provision of STD care, and perceived clinic capacity to offer appropriate STD services. Clinics faced hard choices about whether to provide care to patients or refer elsewhere patients who were unable or unwilling to use insurance. Clinics that decided to see patients regardless of ability to pay often found themselves absorbing costs that were then passed along to their parent agency; the difficulty and financial strain incurred by a clinic's parent agency by providing STD services without support by state grant dollars emerged as a primary concern. Meeting patient demand with staff with appropriate training and expertise remained a concern. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of public health by private health care providers may increase concern among some community provision sites about the sustainability of service provision absent external funds, either from the state or from the third-party billing. Resource constraints may be felt across clinic operations. Provision of public health in the for-profit health system involves close consideration of resources, including those: leveraged, used to provide uncompensated care, or available for collection through third-party billing.

Opioid Use Fueling HIV Transmission in an Urban Setting: An Outbreak of HIV Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs-Massachusetts, 2015-2018.

Objectives. To describe and control an outbreak of HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID).Methods. The investigation included people diagnosed with HIV infection during 2015 to 2018 linked to 2 cities in northeastern Massachusetts epidemiologically or through molecular analysis. Field activities included qualitative interviews regarding service availability and HIV risk behaviors.Results. We identified 129 people meeting the case definition; 116 (90%) reported injection drug use. Molecular surveillance added 36 cases to the outbreak not otherwise linked. The 2 largest molecular groups contained 56 and 23 cases. Most interviewed PWID were homeless. Control measures, including enhanced field epidemiology, syringe services programming, and community outreach, resulted in a significant decline in new HIV diagnoses.Conclusions. We illustrate difficulties with identification and characterization of an outbreak of HIV infection among a population of PWID and the value of an intensive response.Public Health Implications. Responding to and preventing outbreaks requires ongoing surveillance, with timely detection of increases in HIV diagnoses, community partnerships, and coordinated services, all critical to achieving the goal of the national Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative.

Factors associated with help seeking by community responders trained in overdose prevention and naloxone administration in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Community overdose responders do not always seek help from emergency services when administering naloxone. We aimed to identify responder, overdose event, and community characteristics associated with help seeking from emergency services during overdoses reported by Massachusetts Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution (OEND) enrollees, and to assess trends in help seeking over time. METHODS: We analyzed overdose reports submitted between 2007 and 2017 to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. We used logistic regression, stratified by responder drug use status, to assess associations of characteristics with help seeking during an overdose. RESULTS: From January 2007 through December 2017, there were 69,870 OEND enrollees. 5,588 enrollees reported 10,246 overdoses. Help seeking was more likely among responders who did not use drugs. Among responders who did not use drugs, help seeking was more likely when: the responder was older or female, the victim was a stranger or client, and when naloxone did not work. Among responders who used drugs, help seeking was more likely when: the responder was female or had not previously reported responding to an overdose, the victim was a stranger or client or did not use fentanyl, naloxone took a longer time to work, and when the overdose was public or occurred more recently. The percentage of overdoses where help seeking occurred reached a maximum in 2016 at 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Help seeking by OEND enrollees was significantly associated with several responder, victim, and event characteristics. Targeted interventions to promote help seeking are warranted, particularly as the lethality of opioid supplies rises.

The Massachusetts Hepatitis C Testing Cascade, 2014-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize hepatitis C testing in Massachusetts and guide stakeholders in addressing the needs of people living with hepatitis C. METHODS: All persons with a positive laboratory report for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody, between 2014 and 2016, were included in the testing cascade. Outcomes were HCV tests received after a positive anti-HCV antibody test: nucleic acid test or genotype test. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine factors associated with progression through the HCV testing cascade. RESULTS: Among those reported anti-HCV antibody positive, a total of 13 194 (61%) cases had a subsequent RNA-based test, and 79% (10 374/13 194) were confirmed with current, active HCV infection. For confirmed HCV cases, 44% (4557/10 374) had a genotype identified. The median time from an antibody-positive test to a RNA-based test was 29 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 7-151). Differences in moving through the testing cascade were observed by birth cohort and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Improved surveillance capture of demographic information is needed to help public health agencies ensure equity in HCV diagnosis and linkage to care.

Association Between Receipt of a Medically Tailored Meal Program and Health Care Use.

Importance: Whether interventions to improve food access can reduce health care use is unknown. Objective: To determine whether participation in a medically tailored meal intervention is associated with fewer subsequent hospitalizations. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using near/far matching instrumental variable analysis. Data from the 2011-2015 Massachusetts All-Payer Claims database and Community Servings, a not-for-profit organization delivering medically tailored meals (MTMs), were linked. The study was conducted from December 15, 2016, to January 16, 2019. Recipients of MTMs who had at least 360 days of preintervention claims data were matched to nonrecipients on the basis of demographic, clinical, and neighborhood characteristics. Interventions: Weekly delivery of 10 ready-to-consume meals tailored to the specific medical needs of the individual under the supervision of a registered dietitian nutritionist. Main Outcomes and Measures: Inpatient admissions were the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were admission to a skilled nursing facility and health care costs (from medical and pharmaceutical claims). Results: There were 807 eligible MTM recipients. After matching, there were 499 MTM recipients, matched to 521 nonrecipients for a total of 1020 study participants (mean [SD] age, 52.7 [14.5] years; 568 [55.7%] female). Prior to matching and compared with nonrecipients in the same area, health care use, health care cost, and comorbidity were all significantly higher in recipients. For example, preintervention mean (SD) inpatient admissions were 1.6 (6.5) in MTM recipients vs 0.2 (0.8) in nonrecipients (P < .001), and mean health care costs were $80 617 ($312 337) vs $16 138 ($68 738) (P < .001). Recipients compared with nonrecipients were also significantly more likely to have HIV (21.9% vs 0.7%, P < .001), cancer (37.9% vs 11.3%, P < .001), and diabetes (33.7% vs 7.0%, P < .001). In instrumental variable analyses, MTM receipt was associated with significantly fewer inpatient admissions (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.51; 95% CI, 0.22-0.80; risk difference, -519; 95% CI, -360 to -678 per 1000 person-years). Similarly, MTM receipt was associated with fewer skilled nursing facility admissions (IRR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.01-0.60; risk difference, -913; 95% CI, -689 to -1457 per 1000 person-years). The models estimated that, had everyone in the matched cohort received treatment owing to the instrument (and including the cost of program participation), mean monthly costs would have been $3838 vs $4591 if no one had received treatment owing to the instrument (difference, -$753; 95% CI, -$1225 to -$280). Conclusions and Relevance: Participation in a medically tailored meals program appears to be associated with fewer hospital and skilled nursing admissions and less overall medical spending.

Using HIV Surveillance Laboratory Data to Identify Out-of-Care Patients.

HIV-associated laboratory tests reported to public health surveillance have been used as a proxy measure of care engagement of HIV+ individuals. As part of a Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Special Projects of National Significance (SPNS) Initiative, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH) worked with three pilot clinical facilities to identify HIV+ patients whose last HIV laboratory test occurred at the participating facility but who then appeared to be out of care, defined as an absence of HIV laboratory test results reported to MDPH for at least 6 months. The clinical facilities then reviewed medical records to determine whether these patients were actually not in care, or if there was another reason that they did not have a laboratory test performed, and provided feedback to MDPH on each of the presumed out-of-care patients. In the first year of the pilot project, 37% of patients who appeared to be out of care based on laboratory data were confirmed to be out of care after review of clinical health records. Of those patients who were confirmed to be out of care, 55% had a subsequent laboratory test within 3 months, and 72% had a laboratory test within 6 months, indicating that they had re-engaged with a care provider. MDPH found that it was essential to have clinical staff confirm the care status of patients who were presumed to be out of care based on surveillance data.

Factors Associated with Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in a Highly Insured Population of Urban Men Who Have Sex with Men, 2014.

In the United States, an estimated 25% of men who have sex with men (MSM) have indications for receiving pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV infection (PrEP), but <4% reported PrEP use in the past 12 months. We evaluate factors associated with having heard of, willingness to use, and use of PrEP in a venue-based, time-spaced sample of 316 urban, highly insured Boston MSM in the 2014 NHBS. We found that 53.7% of respondents reported receiving usual medical care from a doctor's office or health maintenance organization, 57.6% had an indication for PrEP, 66.6% had heard of PrEP, 53.6% reported willingness to use PrEP, and 5.8% reported use of PrEP in the past 12 months. In multivariable analyses, an indication for PrEP was statistically associated with having heard of, willingness to use and use of PrEP in the past 12 months. Findings guide statewide efforts to evaluate and promote PrEP.

Expanding access to naloxone for family members: The Massachusetts experience.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: The Massachusetts Department of Public Health Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution Program provides overdose education and naloxone rescue kits to people at risk for overdose and bystanders, including family members. Using Massachusetts Department of Public Health data, the aims are to: (i) describe characteristics of family members who receive naloxone; (ii) identify where family members obtain naloxone; and (iii) describe characteristics of rescues by family members. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review using program enrollee information collected on a standardised form between 2008 and 2015. We calculated descriptive statistics, including demographics, current substance use, enrolment location, history of witnessed overdoses and rescue attempt characteristics. We conducted a stratified analysis comparing family members who used drugs with those who did not. RESULTS: Family members were 27% of total program enrollees (n = 10 883/40 801). Family members who reported substance use (n = 4679) were 35.6 years (mean), 50.6% female, 76.3% non-Hispanic white, 75.6% had witnessed an overdose, and they obtained naloxone most frequently at HIV prevention programs. Family members who did not report substance use (n = 6148) were 49.2 years (mean), 73.8% female, 87.9% non-Hispanic white, 35.3% had witnessed an overdose, and they obtained naloxone most frequently at community meetings. Family members were responsible for 20% (n = 860/4373) of the total rescue attempts. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The Massachusetts experience demonstrates that family members can be active participants in responding to the overdose epidemic by rescuing family members and others. Targeted intervention strategies for families should be included in efforts to expand overdose education and naloxone in Massachusetts.

Sustained Reduction in HIV Diagnoses in Massachusetts, 2000-2014.

OBJECTIVES: To describe secular trends in reported HIV diagnoses in Massachusetts concurrent with treatment access expansion. METHODS: We characterized cases of HIV infection reported to the Massachusetts HIV/AIDS Surveillance Program between 2000 and 2014 by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and exposure mode. We used Poisson regression to test the statistical significance of trends in diagnoses. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2014, annual new HIV infections diagnosed in Massachusetts decreased by 47% (P < .001 for trend). We observed significant reductions in diagnoses among women (58% when comparing 2000 with 2014), men (42%), Whites (54%), Blacks (51%), and Hispanics (35%; P < .001 for trend). New diagnoses decreased significantly among men who have sex with men (19%), persons who inject drugs (91%), and heterosexuals (86%; P < .001 for trend). We saw statistically significant downward trends among all men by race/ethnicity, but the trend among Black men who have sex with men was nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained reduction in new HIV diagnoses was concurrent with Massachusetts's Medicaid expansion, state health care reform, and public health strategies to improve care access. A contributory effect of expanded HIV treatment and population-level viral suppression is hypothesized for future research.