Variations in Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Risk of Mortality in an International Study of Patients With Type 1 Diabetes and Advanced Nephropathy.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy are targets for intervention to reduce high risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and deaths. This study compares risks of these outcomes in four international cohorts. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In the 1990s and early 2000s, Caucasian patients with type 1 diabetes with persistent macroalbuminuria in chronic kidney disease stages 1-3 were identified in the Joslin Clinic (U.S., 432), Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy Study (FinnDiane) (Finland, 486), Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen (Denmark, 368), and INSERM (France, 232) and were followed for 3-18 years with annual creatinine measurements to ascertain ESRD and deaths unrelated to ESRD. RESULTS: During 15,685 patient-years, 505 ESRD cases (rate 32/1,000 patient-years) and 228 deaths unrelated to ESRD (rate 14/1,000 patient-years) occurred. Risk of ESRD was associated with male sex; younger age; lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); higher albumin/creatinine ratio, HbA1c, and systolic blood pressure; and smoking. Risk of death unrelated to ESRD was associated with older age, smoking, and higher baseline eGFR. In adjusted analysis, ESRD risk was highest in Joslin versus reference FinnDiane (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, P = 0.003) and lowest in Steno (HR 0.54, P < 0.001). Differences in eGFR slopes paralleled risk of ESRD. Mortality unrelated to ESRD was lowest in Joslin (HR 0.68, P = 0.003 vs. the other cohorts). Competing risk did not explain international differences in the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite almost universal renoprotective treatment, progression to ESRD and mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes with advanced nephropathy are still very high and differ among countries. Finding causes of these differences may help reduce risk of these outcomes.

Circulating Modified Metabolites and a Risk of ESRD in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) with impaired renal function are at increased risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although the rate of progression varies, determinants and mechanisms of this variation are unknown. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined serum metabolomic profiles associated with variation in renal function decline in participants with T1D (the Joslin Kidney Study prospective cohort). One hundred fifty-eight patients with proteinuria and chronic kidney disease stage 3 were followed for a median of 11 years to determine estimated glomerular filtration rate slopes from serial measurements of serum creatinine and to ascertain time to onset of ESRD. Baseline serum samples were subjected to global metabolomic profiling. RESULTS: One hundred ten amino acids and purine and pyrimidine metabolites were detected in at least 80% of participants. Serum levels of seven modified metabolites (C-glycosyltryptophan, pseudouridine, O-sulfotyrosine, N-acetylthreonine, N-acetylserine, N6-carbamoylthreonyladenosine, and N6-acetyllysine) were associated with renal function decline and time to ESRD (P < 0.001) independent of the relevant clinical covariates. The significant metabolites correlated with one another and with the indices of tubular injury. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective cohort study in participants with T1D, proteinuria, and impaired renal function at baseline demonstrated that patients with increased circulating levels of certain modified metabolites experience faster renal function decline, leading to ESRD. Whether some of these candidate metabolites are risk factors or just prognostic biomarkers of progression to ESRD in T1D needs to be determined.

Increased plasma kidney injury molecule-1 suggests early progressive renal decline in non-proteinuric patients with type 1 diabetes.

Progressively decreasing glomerular filtration rate (GFR), or renal decline, is seen in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and normoalbuminuria or microalbuminuria. Here we examined the associations of kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) in plasma and urine with the risk of renal decline and determine whether those associations are independent of markers of glomerular damage. The study group comprised patients with T1D from the 2nd Joslin Kidney Study of which 259 had normoalbuminuria and 203 had microalbuminuria. Serial measurements over 4 to 10 years of follow-up (median 8 years) of serum creatinine and cystatin C were used jointly to estimate eGFRcr-cys slopes and time of onset of CKD stage 3 or higher. Baseline urinary excretion of IgG2 and albumin were used as markers of glomerular damage, and urinary excretion of KIM-1 and its plasma concentration were used as markers of proximal tubular damage. All patients had normal renal function at baseline. During follow-up, renal decline (eGFRcr-cys loss 3.3% or more per year) developed in 96 patients and 62 progressed to CKD stage 3. For both outcomes, the risk rose with increasing baseline levels of plasma KIM-1. In multivariable models, elevated baseline plasma KIM-1 was strongly associated with risk of early progressive renal decline, regardless of baseline clinical characteristics, serum TNFR1 or markers of glomerular damage. Thus, damage to proximal tubules may play an independent role in the development of early progressive renal decline in non-proteinuric patients with T1D.