Modeling Water Quality in Watersheds: From Here to the Next Generation.

In this synthesis, we assess present research and anticipate future development needs in modeling water quality in watersheds. We first discuss areas of potential improvement in the representation of freshwater systems pertaining to water quality, including representation of environmental interfaces, in-stream water quality and process interactions, soil health and land management, and (peri-)urban areas. In addition, we provide insights into the contemporary challenges in the practices of watershed water quality modeling, including quality control of monitoring data, model parameterization and calibration, uncertainty management, scale mismatches, and provisioning of modeling tools. Finally, we make three recommendations to provide a path forward for improving watershed water quality modeling science, infrastructure, and practices. These include building stronger collaborations between experimentalists and modelers, bridging gaps between modelers and stakeholders, and cultivating and applying procedural knowledge to better govern and support water quality modeling processes within organizations.

Suspended sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and exports during storm-events to the Tuross estuary, Australia.

This paper presents a process for estimating pollutant loads from water quality data, to improve catchment-scale modelling in the region for resource management purposes. It describes a program to estimate suspended sediment, total and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the Tuross estuary from the Tuross River catchment (1810 km(2)) of coastal southeast Australia. Event-based water quality sampling results obtained during storm events in 2005 are presented. Event 1, during July 2005 was the largest storm event in terms of peak flow for 3.5 years. Other events monitored were also in July, November and December 2005. The early July 2005 event had a flow-weighted mean suspended sediment (SS) concentration during the first 4 days of 63 mg L(-1). Of the events monitored, this was unusual as it was preceded by drought and had the largest SS concentrations (peaking at 180 mg L(-1)) during the rising-stage. In contrast, the November event had a much lower flow-weighted SS mean (28 mg L(-1)), even though peak flow magnitudes were similar. The July and November 2005 events had peak flows of 12,360 and 11,330 ML day(-1). Low-cost rising-stage siphon samplers were used to collect samples during the rapidly rising phase of these events. The use of such samplers and consideration of time-lead/lag flow adjustments, quantified using cross-correlation analysis to account for hysteresis effects, were incorporated into the load estimation techniques. The technique is a potentially useful approach for understanding relationships between water quality concentrations and flow for modelling catchment source strengths and transport processes.

A deterministic model to quantify pathogen loads in drinking water catchments: pathogen budget for the Wingecarribee.

This paper describes the development and testing of a mathematical model as a tool to quantify pathogen loads in Sydney's drinking water catchments. It has been used to identify, quantify and prioritise sources of Cryptosporidium, Giardia and E. coli in the Wingecarribee catchment. The pathogen model promotes understanding of the relative significance of different sources of pathogen risks as well as their fate and transport as they move through the subcatchments. This pathogen model not only enables water utility managers to identify those catchment segments that may contribute the highest load of pathogens, but also where management options will be most effective.