A formula for predicting emphysema extent in combined idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: No single pulmonary function test captures the functional effect of emphysema in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Without experienced radiologists, other methods are needed to determine emphysema extent. Here, we report the development and validation of a formula to predict emphysema extent in patients with IPF and emphysema. METHODS: The development cohort included 76 patients with combined IPF and emphysema at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London, United Kingdom. The formula was derived using stepwise regression to generate the weighted combination of pulmonary function data that fitted best with emphysema extent on high-resolution computed tomography. Test cohorts included patients from two clinical trials (n = 455 [n = 174 with emphysema]; NCT00047645, NCT00075998) and a real-world cohort from the Royal Brompton Hospital (n = 191 [n = 110 with emphysema]). The formula is only applicable for patients with IPF and concomitant emphysema and accordingly was not used to detect the presence or absence of emphysema. RESULTS: The formula was: predicted emphysema extent = 12.67 + (0.92 x percent predicted forced vital capacity) - (0.65 x percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second) - (0.52 x percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity). A significant relationship between the formula and observed emphysema extent was found in both cohorts (R2 = 0.25, P < 0.0001; R2 = 0.47, P < 0.0001, respectively). In both, the formula better predicted observed emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. A 15% emphysema extent threshold, calculated using the formula, identified a significant difference in absolute changes from baseline in forced vital capacity at Week 48 in patients with baseline-predicted emphysema extent < 15% versus ≥ 15% (P = 0.0105). CONCLUSION: The formula, designed for use in patients with IPF and emphysema, demonstrated enhanced ability to predict emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00047645; NCT00075998.

Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts. METHODS: Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups. RESULTS: In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations. CONCLUSION: When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

Monocular Vision Loss in a Patient With Earache and Night Sweats.

A 62-year-old patient had a history of painless vision loss in her right eye, right ear pain and fullness, sinus discomfort, nasal congestion without discharge, drenching night sweats, cramps in her quadriceps, and weight loss. Examination revealed normal tympanic membranes and a dry but otherwise normal nasal mucosa on flexible endoscopy. What would you do next?

Automated quantification system predicts survival in rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVE: The prognosis of RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) is difficult to predict because of the variable clinical course. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of an automated quantification system (AQS) in RA-ILD. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed the clinical data and high-resolution CT (HRCT) images of 144 patients with RA-ILD. Quantitative lung fibrosis (QLF, sum of reticulation and traction bronchiectasis) and ILD [QILD; sum of QLF, honeycombing (QHC), and ground-glass opacity (QGG)] scores were measured using the AQS. RESULTS: The mean age was 61.2 years, 43.8% of the patients were male, and the 5-year mortality rate was 30.5% (median follow-up, 52.2 months). Non-survivors showed older age, higher ESR and greater AQS scores than survivors. In multivariable Cox analysis, higher QLF, QHC and QILD scores were independent prognostic factors along with older age and higher ESR. In receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, the QLF score showed better performance in predicting 5-year mortality than the QHC and QGG scores but was similar to the QILD score. Patients with high QLF scores (≥12% of total lung volume) showed higher 5-year mortality (50% vs 17.4%, P < 0.001) than those with low QLF scores and similar survival outcome to patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Combining with clinical variables (age, ESR) further improved the performance of QLF score in predicting 5-year mortality. CONCLUSION: QLF scores might be useful for predicting prognosis in patients with RA-ILD. High QLF scores differentiate a poor prognostic phenotype similar to IPF.

Risk prediction model in rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: RA-ILD has a variable clinical course, and its prognosis is difficult to predict. Moreover, risk prediction models for prognosis remain undefined. METHODS: The prediction model was developed using retrospective data from 153 patients with RA-ILD and validated in an independent RA-ILD cohort (n = 149). Candidate variables for the prediction models were screened using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. C-statistics were calculated to assess and compare the predictive ability of each model. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the median follow-up period was 54 months, and 38.6% of the subjects exhibited a UIP pattern on HRCT imaging. In multivariate Cox analysis, old age (≥60 years, HR: 2.063), high fibrosis score (≥20% of the total lung extent, HR: 4.585), a UIP pattern (HR: 1.899) and emphysema (HR: 2.596) on HRCT were significantly poor prognostic factors and included in the final model. The prediction model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of 5-year mortality (C-index: 0.780, P < 0.001); furthermore, patients at risk were divided into three groups with 1-year mortality rates of 0%, 5.1% and 24.1%, respectively. Predicted and observed mortalities at 1, 2 and 3 years were similar in the derivation cohort, and the prediction model was also effective in predicting prognosis of the validation cohort (C-index: 0.638, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a risk prediction model based on HRCT variables could be useful for patients with RA-ILD.

Serial CT analysis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: comparison of visual features that determine patient outcome.

AIMS: Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) receiving antifibrotic medication and patients with non-IPF fibrosing lung disease often demonstrate rates of annualised forced vital capacity (FVC) decline within the range of measurement variation (5.0%-9.9%). We examined whether change in visual CT variables could help confirm whether marginal FVC declines represented genuine clinical deterioration rather than measurement noise. METHODS: In two IPF cohorts (cohort 1: n=103, cohort 2: n=108), separate pairs of radiologists scored paired volumetric CTs (acquired between 6 and 24 months from baseline). Change in interstitial lung disease, honeycombing, reticulation, ground-glass opacity extents and traction bronchiectasis severity was evaluated using a 5-point scale, with mortality prediction analysed using univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Both IPF populations were then combined to determine whether change in CT variables could predict mortality in patients with marginal FVC declines. RESULTS: On univariate analysis, change in all CT variables except ground-glass opacity predicted mortality in both cohorts. On multivariate analysis adjusted for patient age, gender, antifibrotic use and baseline disease severity (diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide), change in traction bronchiectasis severity predicted mortality independent of FVC decline. Change in traction bronchiectasis severity demonstrated good interobserver agreement among both scorer pairs. Across all study patients with marginal FVC declines, change in traction bronchiectasis severity independently predicted mortality and identified more patients with deterioration than change in honeycombing extent. CONCLUSIONS: Change in traction bronchiectasis severity is a measure of disease progression that could be used to help resolve the clinical importance of marginal FVC declines.

Predicting outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis related interstitial lung disease.

The aim of this study was to compare radiology-based prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis-related interstitial lung disease (RAILD) to identify patients with a progressive fibrosis phenotype.RAILD patients had computed tomography (CT) scans scored visually and using CALIPER and forced vital capacity (FVC) measurements. Outcomes were evaluated using three techniques, as follows. 1) Scleroderma system evaluating visual interstitial lung disease extent and FVC values; 2) Fleischner Society idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) diagnostic guidelines applied to RAILD; and 3) CALIPER scores of vessel-related structures (VRS). Outcomes were compared to IPF patients.On univariable Cox analysis, all three staging systems strongly predicted outcome (scleroderma system hazard ratio (HR) 3.78, p=9×10-5; Fleischner system HR 1.98, p=2×10-3; and 4.4% VRS threshold HR 3.10, p=4×10-4). When the scleroderma and Fleischner systems were combined, termed the progressive fibrotic system (C-statistic 0.71), they identified a patient subset (n=36) with a progressive fibrotic phenotype and similar 4-year survival to IPF. On multivariable analysis, with adjustment for patient age, sex and smoking status, when analysed alongside the progressive fibrotic system, the VRS threshold of 4.4% independently predicted outcome (model C-statistic 0.77).The combination of two visual CT-based staging systems identified 23% of an RAILD cohort with an IPF-like progressive fibrotic phenotype. The addition of a computer-derived VRS threshold further improved outcome prediction and model fit, beyond that encompassed by RAILD measures of disease severity and extent.

Predicting Outcomes in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Using Automated Computed Tomographic Analysis.

RATIONALE: Quantitative computed tomographic (CT) measures of baseline disease severity might identify patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with an increased mortality risk. We evaluated whether quantitative CT variables could act as a cohort enrichment tool in future IPF drug trials. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether computer-derived CT measures, specifically measures of pulmonary vessel-related structures (VRSs), can better predict functional decline and survival in IPF and reduce requisite sample sizes in drug trial populations. METHODS: Patients with IPF undergoing volumetric noncontrast CT imaging at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London, and St. Antonius Hospital, Utrecht, were examined to identify pulmonary function measures (including FVC) and visual and computer-derived (CALIPER [Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating] software) CT features predictive of mortality and FVC decline. The discovery cohort comprised 247 consecutive patients, with validation of results conducted in a separate cohort of 284 patients, all fulfilling drug trial entry criteria. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the discovery and validation cohorts, CALIPER-derived features, particularly VRS scores, were among the strongest predictors of survival and FVC decline. CALIPER results were accentuated in patients with less extensive disease, outperforming pulmonary function measures. When used as a cohort enrichment tool, a CALIPER VRS score greater than 4.4% of the lung was able to reduce the requisite sample size of an IPF drug trial by 26%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study has validated a new quantitative CT measure in patients with IPF fulfilling drug trial entry criteria-the VRS score-that outperformed current gold standard measures of outcome. When used for cohort enrichment in an IPF drug trial setting, VRS threshold scores can reduce a required IPF drug trial population size by 25%, thereby limiting prohibitive trial costs. Importantly, VRS scores identify patients in whom antifibrotic medication prolongs life and reduces FVC decline.

Prevalence and Effects of Emphysema in Never-Smokers with Rheumatoid Arthritis Interstitial Lung Disease.

AIMS: Autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis-related interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) have been linked to the existence of emphysema in never-smokers. We aimed to quantify emphysema prevalence in RA-ILD never-smokers and investigate whether combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) results in a worsened prognosis independent of baseline disease extent. METHODS: RA-ILD patients presenting to the Royal Brompton Hospital (n=90) and Asan Medical Center (n=155) had CT's evaluated for a definite usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern, and visual extents of emphysema and ILD. RESULTS: Emphysema, identified in 31/116 (27%) RA-ILD never-smokers, was associated with obstructive functional indices and conformed to a CPFE phenotype: disproportionate reduction in gas transfer (DLco), relative preservation of lung volumes. Using multivariate logistic regression, adjusted for patient age, gender and ILD extent, emphysema presence independently associated with a CT-UIP pattern in never-smokers (0.009) and smokers (0.02). On multivariate Cox analysis, following adjustment for patient age, gender, DLco, and a CT-UIP pattern, emphysema presence (representing the CPFE phenotype) independently associated with mortality in never-smokers (p=0.04) and smokers (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: 27% of RA-ILD never-smokers demonstrate emphysema on CT. Emphysema presence in never-smokers independently associates with a definite CT-UIP pattern and a worsened outcome following adjustment for baseline disease severity.

Likelihood of pulmonary hypertension in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated whether patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) have an increased likelihood of pulmonary hypertension (PHT) when compared with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients without emphysema. METHODS: Two consecutive IPF populations having undergone transthoracic echocardiography were examined (n = 223 and n = 162). Emphysema and interstitial lung disease (ILD) extent were quantified visually; ILD extent was also quantified by a software tool, CALIPER. Echocardiographic criteria categorized PHT risk. RESULTS: The prevalence of an increased PHT likelihood was 29% and 31% in each CPFE cohort. Survival at 12 months was 60% across both CPFE cohorts with no significantly worsened outcome identified when compared with IPF patients without emphysema. Using logistic regression models in both cohorts, total computed tomography (CT) disease extent (ILD and emphysema) predicted the likelihood of PHT. After adjustment for total disease extent, CPFE had no stronger association with PHT likelihood than IPF patients without emphysema. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that the reported association between CPFE and PHT is explained by the summed baseline CT extents of ILD and emphysema. Once baseline severity is taken into account, CPFE is not selectively associated with a malignant microvascular phenotype, when compared with IPF patients without emphysema.